Speculation: Oilers hire Tyler Dellow

[Ogopogo*]

Because you know me in one brief exchange.

I will say this now that theres an intermission break.

All we heard 1.5yrs ago and again this off season is that Dallas Eakins is a great coach because he adhers to advanced stats. Folowed by Eakins being a complete disaster and total silence about if from advanced stats crowd. So in other words somebody is great and astute because they quote advanced stats and become a hero coach in the community. Followed by convenient dissociation when advanced stats head coach completely flounders. Now I'm not saying that this proves anything specifically about the stats themselves. But it says a ton about how they are typically argued..

next we here in the offseason that the numerous additions the oilers made to the roster were good to very good corsi players. That the team is making decisions on the basis of Dellow advice (people made this inference repeatedly) followed by certain players being crash and burn disasters followed by. "these were never really players recommended by the advanced stats community anyway. Oh. That's. Convenient.

Now you come in here for the first time saying which players are, and aren't advocated by advanced stats (which uses moving goal posts all the time) and I'm supposed to take it seriously.

Unfortunately myself, and anybody here has seen information twisted so many ways by the advanced stats acolytes. Its pretty much noise. Given that theres now several advanced stats barometers what does it even mean when you state. "This is not really an advanced stats player" because that's a grossly convenient generalization that means nothing other than posthoc retroanalysis.

The Oilers are the best example of why so-called "advanced stats" are complete drivel. 12 players in the ice make the stat NOT an individual. Assigning a Corsi number to an individual player and using that to make personnel decisions at the NHL-level is the an egregious mis-use of tier 1 fans' ticket money and tier 2 fans' TV package dollars.

I have no doubt that Dellow influenced management to pick up "good Corsi" guys like Purcell, Pouliot and Nikitin. The reality is: those guys suck. Their Corsi numbers were inflated by being on good teams, riding on the coat-tails of good players, who actually impacted those numbers. Corsi is a team stat, gathering crappy players from good teams because of a high Corsi is complete stupidity. Dellow should have been fired along with Eakins for his garbage advice. MacT should be canned for bringing them both on board and believing the smoke & mirrors.

Corsi is a team stat, complete garbage for evaluating individuals - no matter how blue in the face Dellow and his fellow Corsi Cult members get, trying to convince you otherwise.

Thanks MacT for beginning the end of this madness. I love good analytics, but hate garbage like Corsi and Fenwick. So many just eat this crap up because they don't know any better - they are indoctrinated into the cult. Corsi is just a Fancy way to count shots at goal, NOT possession. Corsi cultists have no idea what possession means.

If Eakins was telling our team that a good Corsi is the key to success because PDO (shooting + save %) is just luck, no wonder we sucked so mightily with him as coach.

"Advanced" stats, indeed.

 

[Dorian2]

The Oilers are the best example of why so-called "advanced stats" are complete drivel. 12 players in the ice make the stat NOT an individual. Assigning a Corsi number to an individual player and using that to make personnel decisions at the NHL-level is the an egregious mis-use of tier 1 fans' ticket money and tier 2 fans' TV package dollars.

I have no doubt that Dellow influenced management to pick up "good Corsi" guys like Purcell, Pouliot and Nikitin. The reality is: those guys suck. Their Corsi numbers were inflated by being on good teams, riding on the coat-tails of good players, who actually impacted those numbers. Corsi is a team stat, gathering crappy players from good teams because of a high Corsi is complete stupidity. Dellow should have been fired along with Eakins for his garbage advice. MacT should be canned for bringing them both on board and believing the smoke & mirrors.

Corsi is a team stat, complete garbage for evaluating individuals - no matter how blue in the face Dellow and his fellow Corsi Cult members get, trying to convince you otherwise.

Thanks MacT for beginning the end of this madness. I love good analytics, but hate garbage like Corsi and Fenwick. So many just eat this crap up because they don't know any better - they are indoctrinated into the cult. Corsi is just a Fancy way to count shots at goal, NOT possession. Corsi cultists have no idea what possession means.

If Eakins was telling our team that a good Corsi is the key to success because PDO (shooting + save %) is just luck, no wonder we sucked so mightily with him as coach.

"Advanced" stats, indeed.

Good post.

If anything, I would have expected MacT to know better.

Another black mark against him in my little book of misdeeds.

 

[Hugo McStiglitz]

Good post.

If anything, I would have expected MacT to know better.

Another black mark against him in my little book of misdeeds.

It's still little?

 

[Zap Brannigan]

btw dellow railed against nikitin and wasn't employed by the oilers at that time

 

[CartographerNo611]

The main problem I have with the advanced stat crowd is most think the stats ARE hockey and throw the human element to the side. Its a nice little suppliment to the game and can be a solid indicator in a how a team is performing but its annoying how hockey can only be played by the stats in their minds.

The downside of getting most of your hockey info from stats is you miss a lot of player talents that can only be confirmed visually or even just from playing hockey yourself. Example: the internet hockey crowd; the self proclaimed "hardcore fans" has a nasty vendetta against players who excel at playing the body and are rather insignifigant on the stat sheet. There is no number to see how a body check can decrease an opposing players stamina or how a player strong in board play draws defender to him to allow the more skilled player and opening to increase his stat numbers in goals or assists.

There is no number for the 100 of indviduals that make up team. Thats 100 different set of personal problems that could be boosting to detracting their on ice play.

Long story short the stat crowd insists stats tell 95% of the story but in reality its not even close to that.

 

[tempest2i]

btw dellow railed against nikitin and wasn't employed by the oilers at that time

That'll be completely disregarded because it doesn't fit the story that's trying to be woven here.

 

[Paralyzer008]

Laughing at people who think Nikita Nikitin was a "good" Corsi player.

Tyler Dellow got very mad with that signing and had no affiliation. Tweeted criticism of the signing for like half the day it happened. He had not been hired by the team yet.

Zap is correct.

 

[smackdaddy]

The main problem I have with the advanced stat crowd is most think the stats ARE hockey and throw the human element to the side. Its a nice little suppliment to the game and can be a solid indicator in a how a team is performing but its annoying how hockey can only be played by the stats in their minds.

The downside of getting most of your hockey info from stats is you miss a lot of player talents that can only be confirmed visually or even just from playing hockey yourself. Example: the internet hockey crowd; the self proclaimed "hardcore fans" has a nasty vendetta against players who excel at playing the body and are rather insignifigant on the stat sheet. There is no number to see how a body check can decrease an opposing players stamina or how a player strong in board play draws defender to him to allow the more skilled player and opening to increase his stat numbers in goals or assists.

There is no number for the 100 of indviduals that make up team. Thats 100 different set of personal problems that could be boosting to detracting their on ice play.

Long story short the stat crowd insists stats tell 95% of the story but in reality its not even close to that.

Sorry, but stats are the future of sports and that's coming from someone who doesn't really care one way or another.

It's just that the stats being used right now are not efficient enough. They don't account for some mystery integer or something. But as they evolve, they will paint a much clearer picture that's for sure whether we like it or not. Once you get down to it, it's just numbers and numbers don't lie - they're just interpreted differently.

 

[Seedling]

https://vine.co/u/913247855886606336

Crazy cat person. Also, what a slob.

 

[guymez]

That'll be completely disregarded because it doesn't fit the story that's trying to be woven here.

Indeed.
Interesting group think fueled narrative being built here around this spurious notion that analytics and the people that support them are useless.

Information = bad for some people.

Instead of drawing a line and polarizing the discussion maybe how effectively information is used is what really should be up for debate.

 

[Ogopogo*]

btw dellow railed against nikitin and wasn't employed by the oilers at that time

That's fine, I don't really care what his position was on Nikitin alone - his hopelessly flawed, Corsi-driven agenda is negatively impacting our team, that is the issue.

 

[Ogopogo*]

Indeed.
Interesting group think fueled narrative being built here around this spurious notion that analytics and the people that support them are useless.

Information = bad for some people.

Instead of drawing a line and polarizing the discussion maybe how effectively information is used is what really should be up for debate.

Bad analytics are useless, good analytics are useful. Individual Corsi is in the former category and that is the issue. People who promote it are spreading misinformation and worse, influencing the direction of our hockey club.

**Edit - apparently NOT influencing the direction of our hockey club anymore. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1808315

 

[tempest2i]

Bad analytics are useless, good analytics are useful. Individual Corsi is in the former category and that is the issue. People who promote it are spreading misinformation and worse, influencing the direction of our hockey club.

**Edit - apparently NOT influencing the direction of our hockey club anymore. http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1808315

The content in that link you added seems eerily familiar for some reason...

 

[Speed220DChalavan]

A few comments:

- I don't believe he's fired based on what his girlfriend posted.
- Being sent to Toronto doesn't mean much - he was never going to live in Edmonton full time.
- Tyler Dellow did not have any input on the UFA signings this summer. He was hired after.
- It's pretty clear he doesn't have much influence on lineup decisions. Even Eakins perhaps didn't have much authority. He was Schutz's biggest critic for years, and yet Schultz was getting the push and TOI. Dellow was a big fan of Marincin, yet he's been banished to the minors.
- So if an advanced stats guru isn't being listened to, that doesn't mean his theories are invalid.
- My hope is they utilize Dellow this off-season to obtain value UFA signings.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

A few comments:

- I don't believe he's fired based on what his girlfriend posted.
- Being sent to Toronto doesn't mean much - he was never going to live in Edmonton full time.
- Tyler Dellow did not have any input on the UFA signings this summer. He was hired after.
- It's pretty clear he doesn't have much influence on lineup decisions. Even Eakins perhaps didn't have much authority. He was Schutz's biggest critic for years, and yet Schultz was getting the push and TOI. Dellow was a big fan of Marincin, yet he's been banished to the minors.
- So if an advanced stats guru isn't being listened to, that doesn't mean his theories are invalid.
- My hope is they utilize Dellow this off-season to obtain value UFA signings.

I am not a Dellow fan but I agree that it's hard to slag him if we aren't sure of the exact specifics of what his role is and what decisions he went to bat for or against. As for Marincin IMO his play this season was far from great and he isn't having near the impact in OKC that Klefbom did it seems.

 

[Bangers]

I find it funny how too many people are either pro advanced stats or against them.

I also find it funny how people can easily discount Dellow's contribution without knowing what his contribution was. (Basically people are saying he is a failure based on what people on HF have said about what they think the contributions were?)

Personally, I don't like how condescending Dellow can be. That doesn't mean his data doesn't have value.

I was at a golf tournament with a guy that owns a company whose product is advanced hockey stats. Bright guy.

He stated that advanced hockey stats digs way deeper than what the Corsis and Fenwicks do. There are 45 staff that go over each second of film in a game charting everything from what we hear about to things like skating speed, pass speed, etc etc.

Chicago is a big proponent of advanced stats. http://www.cbssports.com/nhl/eye-on...m-stan-bowman-says-analytics-give-team-leg-up

So, you get tons of different data. You sift through and try to determine what it means and try to implement things. Just because it doesn't work, doesn't mean the data is bad. It could mean the interpretation and implementation of data based strategy is bad.

If I have a stat that says Ales Hemsky loses the puck within 3 feet of the opposing blueline 48% of the time, I might coach him to do several different things. (Dump in, pass over the blueline, carry if he is not the first player in the zone)

What if none of what I coach him to do works any better? Is the stat terrible? Nope.

Let's remember to take stats for what they are. Information. Or let's at least do it 65.3% of the time.

This post epitomizes everything I think on the subject. Advanced statistics will definitely play an important role in the future of the sport, but it will be data based on educated observers viewing game film, not 'pure numbers'.

 

[Master Lok]

I have no doubt that Dellow influenced management to pick up "good Corsi" guys like Purcell, Pouliot and Nikitin.
....
Dellow should have been fired along with Eakins for his garbage advice. MacT should be canned for bringing them both on board and believing the smoke & mirrors.

And I have no doubt that you have absolutely no idea what you're ranting about.

Report that Dellow was hired by the Oilers... on August 5.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...s-oilers-hire-analytics-pioneer-tyler-dellow/

Niktin was signed by the Oilers on Jun 25. And as reported by others, Dellow was adamantly AGAINST the signing.
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/481792748710666240

Purcell was traded to the Oilers on June 30.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=724511

Pouliot was signed by the Oilers on July 1.
https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/484006553477857281

All three players were signed by the Oilers before Dellow was working for them.

 

[Replacement*]

And I have no doubt that you have absolutely no idea what you're ranting about.

Report that Dellow was hired by the Oilers... on August 5.

http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/20...s-oilers-hire-analytics-pioneer-tyler-dellow/

Niktin was signed by the Oilers on Jun 25. And as reported by others, Dellow was adamantly AGAINST the signing.
https://twitter.com/TSNBobMcKenzie/status/481792748710666240

Purcell was traded to the Oilers on June 30.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=724511

Pouliot was signed by the Oilers on July 1.
https://twitter.com/edmontonoilers/status/484006553477857281

All three players were signed by the Oilers before Dellow was working for them.

Does this preclude that the Oilers or Eakins or MacT weren't following his work at all in which he made it clear what his views on players was? I mean they decided to hire this guy to work with them so clearly they were familiar with his take and body of work. afairc the Oilers had also got into the habit of calling some acquisitions "possession" players, the latest buzz vernacular in the biz. The most misleading one too.

Thus the Oilers having several forwards in the lineup that are paid well to be blatantly uncomfortable with the puck at anytime but who somehow move "possession" numbers.

I can't wait for embedded chips that ACTUALLY measure when and where puck possession.

 

[azashi]

Does this preclude that the Oilers or Eakins or MacT weren't following his work at all in which he made it clear what his views on players was? I mean they decided to hire this guy to work with them so clearly they were familiar with his take and body of work. afairc the Oilers had also got into the habit of calling some acquisitions "possession" players, the latest buzz vernacular in the biz. The most misleading one too.

Listen to yourself.

Now you're suggesting the Oilers were making roster decisions based off of blog posts they read.

You really need a break from the forums.

 

[voxel]

This post epitomizes everything I think on the subject. Advanced statistics will definitely play an important role in the future of the sport, but it will be data based on educated observers viewing game film, not 'pure numbers'.

That's against advanced stats. Pure numbers without subjectivity is what sabermetrics is about. Hits, turnovers, etc. are subjective stats that can't be relied on.

Right now, hockey stats are primitive... we need puck tracking, etc. because what we really want to measure is puck possession vs. using "related" stats like Corsi to represent it.

 

[Cawz]

I posted the same thing on the main boards, but I think they probably got rid of him because, after having him around for half the season, they now realize that having to deal with his personality is not worth any possibly minor insight he can bring.

 

[Replacement*]

Listen to yourself.

Now you're suggesting the Oilers were making roster decisions based off of blog posts they read.

You really need a break from the forums.

Or that they read and consulted the work and opinion of a blogger that they stated they had "been following for sometime" and that "they were big fans of his work"

Yeah I'm really stretching here with this.

They HIRED the blog poster after being impressed with his work and noting they followed his work.

I guess the hire date precludes any other influential possibility for you.

Wow, unbelievable. Do I have to hire an author to be influenced by his work?

lemme know

yean wait, the printed word and type face was developed centuries ago to propagate the dissemination of thought. The internet to some extent as well..

 

[McDraekke]

https://vine.co/u/913247855886606336

Crazy cat person. Also, what a slob.

That's a little harsh. Not sure about other people, but I definitely don't call someone a slob because they have a few things on their coffee table...

 

[Master Lok]

Or that they read and consulted the work and opinion of a blogger that they stated they had "been following for sometime" and that "they were big fans of his work"

Yeah I'm really stretching here with this.

They HIRED the blog poster after being impressed with his work and noting they followed his work.

I guess the hire date precludes any other influential possibility for you.

Wow, unbelievable. Do I have to hire an author to be influenced by his work?

If that's the case, then

a) Why didn't they listen to Dellow when he railed against Nikitin?

b) the original poster was blaming Dellow for Nikitin, Pouliot and Purcell being acquired by the Oilers. Can you illustrate why Dellow should be blamed when he wasn't even an employee until a month after these players were acquired?

 

[dyzfunctioned]

This thread is sad.

The corsi-haters vs. corsi-supporters debate is nothing new; pretty much every time it's brought up it devolves to this. No surprise here.

Clinging to the tiniest branches in order to pin failure on a guy who no one outside the organization really knows what influence he even had and literally no facts about what his contributions were - that's a bit sad. Clearly there's a prior agenda here to try to paint someone in a bad light. Sure, blame the guy for the Oilers failures, their off-season signings. Bit of a leap to say he had the power to get the team to play the "corsi game" and determine key off-season signings (despite not even being hired yet) when he clearly didn't even have any influence over signings such as Nikitin and player usage - Schultz, who he was vocally critical of being used as a top-pairing D, Yak not being used as a trigger man on the PP, etc. But I digress - who doesn't love baseless accusations?

Saddest part of all? Endlessly ragging on a guy for no other reason than your own personal grudge against him? I'm not sure you can call mocking a vine of his cat anything other than that.