Oilers' Defence Set Up to Fail Again?

[Mr Positive]

I don't know why this stuff is allowed to be posted. Simply terrible.

he is saying he is the devil's advocate here, and it is worth noting that as much potential for our D to do very well if several guys have good years, there is also a pessimistic possibility that is not unrealistic. We can't know for sure how Larsson will be out of New Jersey, although we have good reason to be hopeful. Same for Klefbom and finally playing a full season. Same for Sekera finding consistency with a better team around him. Even with a player like Davidson, he could take a step forward and be a great top 4 Dman with some offense to his game, or he could bomb like Lander did after a good season.

Yeah, for sure our D is a work in progress. Personally I don't mind. There aren't any quick fixes, or at least we can't count on them. Our D is kind of like what Anaheim's was before guys like Lindholm and Vatanen developed. It could go either way, but developing it is the only thing we can do right now.

 

[LaGu]

Obviously McDavid was considered better than Hall. I meant of the young core that had grown up together (Hall, Nugent-Hopkins, Eberle and, to a lesser degree, Yakupov). Of the young core guys that were rumoured to be available — especially the $6-million-dollar boys — Hall was considered the best of the bunch by most. I think that's fair.

I would say Sekera is an "average" No. 3. If he's a No. 4 (or 5) on 15 teams — half the league — it's hard to argue that he's a "good" No. 3.

Has Klefbom even stepped on the ice this summer? He might have played for the Oilers in the playoffs, but he would have been playing with a bleeding foot and nowhere near 100 per cent. Yes, he looked really good in those 30 games, but he hasn't played a game in a long time and has a lingering, possibly recurring injury, so to expect him to be as good or better than he was in those 30 games is asking a lot. I think it's unrealistic to expect that. By Christmas, if healthy and 100 per cent, he should be back up to that level and might take a small step forward in the second half, again if he stays healthy.

Larsson is better than Petrovic no doubt. I hardly compared them. I said they play a similar shutdown style and that they both took big steps forward in their development and in that specific role last season. That's fair. Larsson was the higher draft pick thus the better pedigree and understandably higher expectations coming into next season. I prefer Larsson to Petrovic and never meant to lump them together, only to say that if Larsson wasn't available and that shutdown type was being targeted, then Yakupov for Petrovic would have made sense as a fallback option.

Fair enough (Hall), I would have put it differently in the article though.

In my point of view Sekera is a good #3 and can fill in for shorter periods as a decent #2. You have not changed my view on that.

Klefbom. You are still refering to an article from April by Gregor where Klefbom l brought up that his skin was thin and broke when skating in January/February until April and that they at that point decided to not push it anymore but just wait it out and see day-by-day. In the same article he said he was going to Sweden and rest for a month. In June he was back, and in an update from Gregor it was clear that he was skating already in mid-June without any problems. 1-2 weeks later Stauffer also said that he was already skating and there were no problems.

So what I will get at here is that I understand doom and gloom for hfposters, but a hockey writer should not fall for that. If every serious actor in this issue indicate that all is well right now why would you take an opposite view without any real references or sources? Or do you have sources which tell you otherwise?

Larsson took his big step forward in 14/15, not 15/16 even though he kept on building of that turn-around season. There is a big difference taking a development step from basically scratched/3rd pair to 1st pair and what Petrovic did since he is still 3rd pair. I know that you said that Larsson is a better player but I don't think that is the point. In no way shape or form could Petrovic provide what Larsson will. Because what Larsson does is to move all other D's down a notch when it comes to taking on the toughest matchup. That can be a game changer for this group imho.

Edit: Sekera will hopefully be able to show you how good he can be as a #3.

 

[nabob]

Team hasn't played a playoff game in over a decade. You want sunshine and roses?

No everything should be negative. Might as well write a few articles ******** on McDavid and how history shows that he'll get injured while we are at it. Or maybe "writers" should be able to come up with something that the mains hasn't posted 100 times in the last few weeks.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Larry your logic is very flawed in this thread and much of what you have written in this thread lacks context in regards to Larsson.

Just like you use a few stats to put a negative spin on Larsson's capabilities I can easily use a few stats and make Larsson look like a top #1 D.

If you are going to focus on Larsson offensive numbers, you must consider that the Devils were one of the worst offensive teams in the league. Larsson making a breakout pass to Lee Stemniak, Travis Zajac, Mike Cammalleri & Kyle Palmeri is quite different than perhaps a John Klingberg feeding passes to Benn, Seguin, Spezza and Sharp.

When you add a little team context you will find that the Devils scored an average of 2.22 goals per game. (Worst in the NHL) The next worst team was Vancouver at 2.27. Using your logic, Alexander Edler (arguably their #1 D)scored 18 pts last season. Did Edler a proven 30-50 pts puck moving defenseman suddenly become incompetent in the offensive zone? Did his breakout pass suddenly become terrible leading to less points? Probably not.

The likely answer is that the Canucks forwards didn't have the offensive skillset necessary to generate enough offense to finish off plays that started on Edler's stick. I'm not sure what your arguments are trying to prove in regards to Larsson's abilities when focusing solely on Larsson's stat line. It's not Larsson's fault that he doesn't play with five 30 goal scorers. It's not Edler's fault that with the exception of the Sedin twins the Canucks can't generate any offense.

Now let's look at some defensive stats.

New Jersey was 8th in the league in goals allowed. Larsson underlying numbers (Zone Starts, Quality of Opponent) clearly show he was a big part of making the Devils a defensive juggernaut. The only fair criticism here would be that he played with Andy Greene as a defensive partner and had Cory Schneider in goal but I think we can agree that Larsson is a very capable defender.

When you look at his division, Larsson coaches had enough confidence to put him up against Ovechkin, Crosby, Malkin, Tavares, Giroux all game long on almost a nightly basis and the results are very positive.

New Jersey wasn't going to make the playoffs next year without adding a dynamic forward. Edmonton wasn't going to improve without adding a top quality defenseman. That's why the trade happened and that's why Larsson makes sense here.

I have 0 concern about Larsson's offensive abilities. All he has to do defend well and the Oilers will be much better off for it.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Everybody is quick to knock New Jersey as the lowest-scoring team in the league and how much Larsson will benefit offensively by getting out of that black hole. For as much talent and firepower as the Oilers possess up front in comparison, they haven't exactly been leading the league in goals for either. The Devils were 30th with 184 total goals for (2.24) and the Oilers were 25th out of 30 teams with 203 (2.48). The Oilers, as a whole, only scored 19 more total goals over 82 games. The Devils did have two 30-goal scorers while the Oilers had none. Both teams only had two forwards with more than 50 points and four with more than 40 points.

So assuming a big offensive jump for Larsson is setting yourself up for disappointment. In saying that, I am very aware of what Larsson does well, and I was one of the first media types to compare him to Anton Stralman and suggest Larsson could improve offensively similar to Stralman when he went from a shutdown role with the Rangers to a two-way role as Hedman's partner in Tampa. However, this particular piece wasn't highlighting his defensive game or even that potential. It was simply playing devil's advocate and providing reasons why Larsson and others on the Oilers' blue-line could fall short of fan expectations, and in Larsson's case my reasoning was the pressure to be a top-pair guy in a tougher conference/division and to replace Hall's "impact" on the roster, to impact the team/games as much or more than Hall in a positive manner since the trade was a 1-for-1. That has nothing to do with offence, just impact in general. That's asking a lot of Larsson in a market that hasn't been kind to struggling young defencemen (Poti, Schultz, etc.). If he doesn't impress right away and hit the ground running, it could get ugly and he could be your guys' whipping boy.

I missed the part about Klefbom being back on the ice, that's great news, but the reality remains that injuries have been a big part of his career, he's been prone to them and has rarely, if ever, made it through a whole season unscathed. As much as it's devil's advocate, it's almost more likely that Klefbom gets hurt again than not. And I still think it's fair to say he won't be 100 per cent up to speed to start the season, he'll likely be rusty to some degree. That's understandable, but it's being a realist.

I don't consider myself an outsider here. I don't post often but I've been an HF Oil guy since 2002 and a constant lurker, so that probably makes me one of the longest-serving members. I was here with Guy Flaming and Lowetide and worked with those guys over the years and to this day. I feel I belong here and the older members do respect and understand my opinions and my work, even if they don't always agree.

 

[McShogun99]

Just having a healthy lineup with the addition of Larsson and Lucic will be huge. The defence is still work in progress but this is not a 29th place team.

 

[Fixed to Ruin]

Everybody is quick to knock New Jersey as the lowest-scoring team in the league and how much Larsson will benefit offensively by getting out of that black hole. For as much talent and firepower as the Oilers possess up front in comparison, they haven't exactly been leading the league in goals for either. The Devils were 30th with 184 total goals for (2.24) and the Oilers were 25th out of 30 teams with 203 (2.48). The Oilers, as a whole, only scored 19 more total goals over 82 games. The Devils did have two 30-goal scorers while the Oilers had none. Both teams only had two forwards with more than 50 points and four with more than 40 points.

Edmonton was 27th in Goals Against. The Devils were 8th. The Devils almost made the playoffs. The Oilers finished in the basement.

Frankly, who cares about Larsson's offensive production. The Oilers will get more offensive opportunities by default simply by spending less time in the defensive zone. That helps everyone's offensive numbers and will lead to more wins than keeping Hall's and his 80 pts per season and getting torched in our own zone.

 

[Larry Fisher]

That could prove true for sure, and it sounds promising. But there is more to that discrepancy in goals against than just Larsson's impact. Remember that New Jersey has an all-world, top-five (or top-10 for sure) goaltender in Cory Schneider. Cam Talbot was strong in the second half and looked good at the worlds, but he's not on that level yet and the Oilers goals against reflect that (weaker goaltending) to a degree too.

Also, you have to take into account New Jersey's system and defensive structure. Mark Fayne also played top shutdown minutes there, with Greene, and was effective (not to mention an analytics darling). So as much as we all like Larsson (and I include myself in that all), we can't give him all the credit for New Jersey being 8th in goals against and we can't expect his addition to rocket Edmonton up those rankings either. If the Oilers crack the top 20 in that department in 2016-17, that would be a substantial improvement in my opinion.

In saying that, you could argue that New Jersey will feel Larsson's loss as much or more than Edmonton feels Hall's loss and I'd say that's fair. New Jersey's defence looks pretty awful now without Larsson whereas Edmonton's offence still looks potent with Lucic a slight downgrade on Hall.

Staying as healthy as possible throughout the lineup will obviously be a big key — as it is for every team — and that's unpredictable for better or worse.

 

[I am the Liquor]

No everything should be negative. Might as well write a few articles ******** on McDavid and how history shows that he'll get injured while we are at it. Or maybe "writers" should be able to come up with something that the mains hasn't posted 100 times in the last few weeks.

Maybe the team should win some ****ing games?

There's been a lot of sunshine blown up skirts around here from what I've seen. Doesn't hurt to have a different opinion voiced if for nothing other than variety.

The Oilers can kiss my ass. I'm not paying to watch this mismanaged pile of dog crap any longer. I will catch a few of the free games available in my area if I can spare the time.

Sorry to be negative but I just can't get excited for a team that's done a month or six weeks into a season, or pay $10 for stale warm draught or $5 for a warmed over hot dog to watch them get pulverized by the Flames at home for the umpteenth time. Meanwhile Craig and Kevin are still on the gravy train and Katz has ****ed the Taxpayers and the fans.

This team has been so bad for so long I'm surprised anyone can defend these idiots anymore or truly believe that this year things or going to be different.

I say show me, and until then, the Oilers can **** off.

 

[Fourier]

That could prove true for sure, and it sounds promising. But there is more to that discrepancy in goals against than just Larsson's impact. Remember that New Jersey has an all-world, top-five (or top-10 for sure) goaltender in Cory Schneider. Cam Talbot was strong in the second half and looked good at the worlds, but he's not on that level yet and the Oilers goals against reflect that (weaker goaltending) to a degree too.

Also, you have to take into account New Jersey's system and defensive structure. Mark Fayne also played top shutdown minutes there, with Greene, and was effective (not to mention an analytics darling). So as much as we all like Larsson (and I include myself in that all), we can't give him all the credit for New Jersey being 8th in goals against and we can't expect his addition to rocket Edmonton up those rankings either. If the Oilers crack the top 20 in that department in 2016-17, that would be a substantial improvement in my opinion.

In saying that, you could argue that New Jersey will feel Larsson's loss as much or more than Edmonton feels Hall's loss and I'd say that's fair. New Jersey's defence looks pretty awful now without Larsson whereas Edmonton's offence still looks potent with Lucic a slight downgrade on Hall.

Staying as healthy as possible throughout the lineup will obviously be a big key — as it is for every team — and that's unpredictable for better or worse.

I posted this before but it probably fits better with your comments:

There have been comparisons between Fayne with Greene and Larson with Greene as pairings. Here are some of the actual numbers. People can interpret them as they will.

Greene with Larsson 2014-2016:

TOI 1943
GF/60 1.64
GA/60 1.42
GF% 53.5%
CF% 45.5%
OZ% 34.1%

Top 8 forwards in TOI for: Zajac (32%) , Henrique (27%) , Palmieri (22%), Cammalleri (19%), Gionta (19%), Elias (16%), Tootoo (15%), Stempniak (13%)

Top 10 forwards in TOI against: Crosby, N. Foligno, Stepan, Atkinson, Pacioretty, Kreider, Ovechkin, J. Staal, Zuccarello, Giroux

GA /60 with Schneider 1.48
GA/60 with Kinkaid 1.82

Goals against for the Team 258 in 164 games = 1.57g/gm

Greene with Larsson 2015-2016:

TOI 1467
GF/60 1.57
GA/60 1.27
GF% 55.2%
CF% 44.1%
OZ% 31.8%

Top 6 forwards in TOI for: Palmieri (38%), Zajac (35%), Henrique (29%), Stempniak (23%), Kalinin (23%), Gionta (18%), Cammalieri (17%), Tootoo (14%)

Top 10 forwards in TOI against: Giroux, Zuccarello, Crosby, Stepan, Ovechkin, Nordstrom, Saad, Jenner, J. Staal, Atkinson

ES Goals against for the Team 133 in 82 games = 1.62 g/gm

GA /60 with Schneider 1.30
GA/60 with Kinkaid 1.62


Greene with Fayne 2012-2014

TOI 1085
GF/60 2.27
GA/60 2.10
GF% 51.9%
CF% 57.2%
OZ% 47.1%

Top 8 forwards in TOI for: Zajac(31%), Zubrus(27%), Henrique (24%), Jagr(23%), Bernier(23%), Elias(22%), Gionta(19%), Ryder (18%)

Top 10 forwards in TOI against: Giroux, E. Staal, Voracek, St. Louis Backstrom, Kessel, Bozak, B. Boyes, Crosby, JVR

GA/60 with Schneider 2.28
GA/60 with Brodeur 2.28

ES Goals against for the Team 210 in 130 games =1.62 g/gm


I won't say much other than the following observations: While the rate at which the team gave up ES goals against stayed relatively constant the Larsson/Greene pairing had far better results, particularly last year, in preventing ES goals against than the Greene/Fayne despite the fact that the former pairing seemed to have a much more defensively challenging assignment. This success is sometimes attributed to better goal tending but that does not seem to be the case. Greene aand Fayne played behind Broduer and Schneider. And if it was just Schneider having improved you would have expected a corresponding reduction in the GA when that pair was off the ice. But NJ GA/60 at ES when Larsson was not on the ice was about 2.4 or roughly double what it was. Moreover Larssons GA/60 with Kinkaid in net would have ranked 5th best behind only Stralman, Campbell, Doughty and Niskanen.

The Corsi difference is likely why the analytics crew loved Fayne. But it would be impossible for anyone who has seen both players to argue that Fayne is better either defensively or as a puck mover than Larsson. So it would seem clear that this difference is attributable to overall team play and the fact that as a pair Greene/ Larsson start in their own end far more often.

The Fayne/Greene pairing played against a relatively similar group of high quality players but the difference is that many of the top players they played against put up much better numbers against them than they did against Larsson/Greene. This is especially true for the 2015-2016 season.

I will also add this. Of the 124 defensemen that played 1000 minutes or more 5 vs 5 Larsson had the second lowest GA/60 behind only Stralman. Greene was 3rd. Amongst that group Larsson and Greene had the lowest OZFO% at 20.7% and 20.5% respectively. Stralman was 115th on that list 36.6%.

For DZFO% Larsson was first at 44.4% with Greene second. Stralman was 105th at 29.4%.

And of course while one might argue that Larsson had Greene to lean on Stralman had a guy who was not so bad either. So while none of this proves that he will have a similar impact in Edmonton, it is true that there is evidence to back up an more optimistic point of view.

 

[LaGu]

Everybody is quick to knock New Jersey as the lowest-scoring team in the league and how much Larsson will benefit offensively by getting out of that black hole. For as much talent and firepower as the Oilers possess up front in comparison, they haven't exactly been leading the league in goals for either. The Devils were 30th with 184 total goals for (2.24) and the Oilers were 25th out of 30 teams with 203 (2.48). The Oilers, as a whole, only scored 19 more total goals over 82 games. The Devils did have two 30-goal scorers while the Oilers had none. Both teams only had two forwards with more than 50 points and four with more than 40 points.

So assuming a big offensive jump for Larsson is setting yourself up for disappointment. In saying that, I am very aware of what Larsson does well, and I was one of the first media types to compare him to Anton Stralman and suggest Larsson could improve offensively similar to Stralman when he went from a shutdown role with the Rangers to a two-way role as Hedman's partner in Tampa. However, this particular piece wasn't highlighting his defensive game or even that potential. It was simply playing devil's advocate and providing reasons why Larsson and others on the Oilers' blue-line could fall short of fan expectations, and in Larsson's case my reasoning was the pressure to be a top-pair guy in a tougher conference/division and to replace Hall's "impact" on the roster, to impact the team/games as much or more than Hall in a positive manner since the trade was a 1-for-1. That has nothing to do with offence, just impact in general. That's asking a lot of Larsson in a market that hasn't been kind to struggling young defencemen (Poti, Schultz, etc.). If he doesn't impress right away and hit the ground running, it could get ugly and he could be your guys' whipping boy.

I missed the part about Klefbom being back on the ice, that's great news, but the reality remains that injuries have been a big part of his career, he's been prone to them and has rarely, if ever, made it through a whole season unscathed. As much as it's devil's advocate, it's almost more likely that Klefbom gets hurt again than not. And I still think it's fair to say he won't be 100 per cent up to speed to start the season, he'll likely be rusty to some degree. That's understandable, but it's being a realist.

I don't consider myself an outsider here. I don't post often but I've been an HF Oil guy since 2002 and a constant lurker, so that probably makes me one of the longest-serving members. I was here with Guy Flaming and Lowetide and worked with those guys over the years and to this day. I feel I belong here and the older members do respect and understand my opinions and my work, even if they don't always agree.

The fire power will be taken care of by a healthy line-up.
When McDavid and Klefbom played together last season EDM was 2.7 GF/GP. Middle of the pack in terms of scoring and that was a rookie with 0-13 GP and a sophomore D playing 1st pair carrying Schultz. McDavid is McDavid, Klefbom is a great puck mover and that has enormous impact on overall scoring. Larsson is probably an even better passer so it will only go up from here imo.

Stralman, ok sure. Why not. I think Larsson has so many more tools than Stralman, but he needs to put everything together in the WestC to get there so I guess I can live with that (and be quite happy actually). Stralman was still 2nd pair though in NYR, not the same situation as Larsson in NJD even though he did face tough matchups in 13/14 (although also produced quite a bit less on a higher scoring team, Stralman was on pace for 12 pts in 12/13 and scored 13 pts in 13/14, Larsson was on pace for 31 pts in 14/15 and scored 18 in 15/16). If you only look at this upcoming season I think they can be comparable because I do think larsson will pot 30-40 pts, but long term there is no doubt Larsson has more potential, imo of course. But I would already be quite happy with a Stralman because it is something that has been missing on this team for a while.

Of course Klefbom will be rusty, but that has not stopped him before. That was the point, he has, against odds on many occasions, had a crazy development curve. If you would have told anyone 2-3 seasons ago that we would be talking about him as #1-#2 in EDM, based on his play by the way, they would think you were out of your mind. I am not saying he will come in a be a #1/#2 right away, but I don't see reason for why he should be going backwards (except for first 10 games or so) and not be able to play as he did in the beginning of last season. He is a fitness freak so he'll be a better shape than ever, and he was apparently already no1 in most fitness tests last pre-season. Having a stable partner, or rather not having Schultz as his partner, will probably also help more than you think. Everyone gets injuries, this is Klefbom's record:

2010-11: no reason to believe any significant injury
2011-12: no reason to believe any significant injury
2012-13: major shoulder surgery, lost most of the year
2013-14: 10 games total to various injuries
2014-15: two games total to a foot injury
2015-16: lost a handful of games to a finger injury, major loss of time due to staph infection

That may look worse than it actually is, basically the only concern would be his shoulder imo, but since that has not come back to haunt him since 12/13 it probably won't in the future. The other are minor things such as shoulder (the other one) 1 week, and foot 2 days (puck on ankle). These are the kind of injuries you can play through if you are in playoffs but since he was/is so young they decided to take him off.

Concerning the staph infection, again, I have not seen any serious opinion saying that this will be a problem (doctors, staff, Klefbom, journalists). Only posters speculation, which is normally backed up with a "IMO". Everyone says it was a freak accident and that the reason it took so long to get back was that they wanted to make sure (i.e. give him extra time off) that he would be 100% for next year. Otherwise they could have put him out on the ice in the last games of the season. In the end the problem actually began in the beginning of last season, not in December/January. His skin broke from time to time and he was given antibiotics to avoid infection, but three months later he got it anyway. The point of brining that up is to say that he and the staff knew already that his skin was breaking, now they know what it lead to and so I find it difficult to understand how this could become an issue since 1) he has skated and the skin obviously did not break (last season it broke right away) and 2) they will keep it under control and even if he does break skin again it will be treated a bit more seriously so that it does not get infected again.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Great work Fourier, that's some very impressive data. Stick tap to you for those efforts. That certainly paints Larsson in a positive light and I won't even attempt to dispute or refute those facts. Oilers fans can only hope they translate to Edmonton and with more offensive-zone starts and perhaps some power-play time, Larsson's point totals could jump as well.

I had been comparing Larsson to Stralman for the most part, so it's good to see your data is showing them to be similar as well. It would be interesting to see how Larsson of 2015-16 compares to Stralman of 2013-14 (his final season with the Rangers in a shutdown role) over those same categories? I presume Stralman would have been among the league leaders in DZFO% that season, but he only produced one goal and 13 points in 81 regular-season games before taking a big jump to nine goals and 39 points in 2014-15 with more of a two-way role in Tampa Bay. Perhaps the optimists have reason to hope for similar output from Larsson in 2016-17? Then again, Hedman is a better partner than Klefbom or Sekera, but still there would seem to be potential for a nice boom/breakout upon Larsson's arrival in Edmonton.

Again, very interesting data and I appreciate your efforts.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Some good points by you too LaGu. My memory isn't as good as it once was, but did Klefbom not suffer a concussion that prematurely ended his draft-plus-one year too? I thought 2011-12 included some sort of semi-major injury that had Oilers fans worried about hindering Klefbom's development? That seemed to be stuck in my head when making those injury comments, but correct me if I'm wrong? Maybe Klefbom isn't as prone to injury as I was making him out to be?

A quick Google search turned up a couple results from our old HF friend Lowetide to refresh that memory of mine: http://oilersnation.com/2011/9/11/such-a-klefbom and http://lowetide.ca/2012/11/21/3-prospect-winter-2012-oscar-klefbom/ and this link out of Sweden confirms it was a concussion: http://swedishoil.dohfos.eu/post/12797732235/klefbom-injured-again

So there have been injury concerns with Klefbom essentially ever since he was drafted and thus the "injury-prone" label, although the shoulder stands out as the only real serious injury requiring major surgery.

 

[LaGu]

Great work Fourier, that's some very impressive data. Stick tap to you for those efforts. That certainly paints Larsson in a positive light and I won't even attempt to dispute or refute those facts. Oilers fans can only hope they translate to Edmonton and with more offensive-zone starts and perhaps some power-play time, Larsson's point totals could jump as well.

I had been comparing Larsson to Stralman for the most part, so it's good to see your data is showing them to be similar as well. It would be interesting to see how Larsson of 2015-16 compares to Stralman of 2013-14 (his final season with the Rangers in a shutdown role) over those same categories? I presume Stralman would have been among the league leaders in DZFO% that season, but he only produced one goal and 13 points in 81 regular-season games before taking a big jump to nine goals and 39 points in 2014-15 with more of a two-way role in Tampa Bay. Perhaps the optimists have reason to hope for similar output from Larsson in 2016-17? Then again, Hedman is a better partner than Klefbom or Sekera, but still there would seem to be potential for a nice boom/breakout upon Larsson's arrival in Edmonton.

Again, very interesting data and I appreciate your efforts.

edit: never mind

 

[Fourier]

Great work Fourier, that's some very impressive data. Stick tap to you for those efforts. That certainly paints Larsson in a positive light and I won't even attempt to dispute or refute those facts. Oilers fans can only hope they translate to Edmonton and with more offensive-zone starts and perhaps some power-play time, Larsson's point totals could jump as well.

I had been comparing Larsson to Stralman for the most part, so it's good to see your data is showing them to be similar as well. It would be interesting to see how Larsson of 2015-16 compares to Stralman of 2013-14 (his final season with the Rangers in a shutdown role) over those same categories? I presume Stralman would have been among the league leaders in DZFO% that season, but he only produced one goal and 13 points in 81 regular-season games before taking a big jump to nine goals and 39 points in 2014-15 with more of a two-way role in Tampa Bay. Perhaps the optimists have reason to hope for similar output from Larsson in 2016-17? Then again, Hedman is a better partner than Klefbom or Sekera, but still there would seem to be potential for a nice boom/breakout upon Larsson's arrival in Edmonton.

Again, very interesting data and I appreciate your efforts.

Stralman's numbers in 2013-2014:

Toi 1345
GF/60 2.27
GA/60 2.01
GF% 53.1%
CF% 56.2

OZFO% 31.2%
DZFO% 30.6%

Top 8 forwards for: Richards, Brassard, Zuccarello, Hagelin, Stepan, Pouliot, Boyle, Kreider.

Top 27 against: Ryder, Bailey, Henrique, Grabovski, Loktionov, Lupul, Zubrus, Nielsen, Zajac, Semin, Brouwer, Kulemin, Jagr, Regin, E. Staal, Dubinsky, Martin, Anisimov, Vanek, Lecavalier, Cizikas, Jokinen, Johansen, Hodgson Brunner, Crosby

I went to 27 to get to Crosby. Now Stralman's GA/60m vs Crosby was 6.025 vs 0.00 for Larsson in 66.5 minutes over the last two years.

And as to Starlman's DZFO% he was the 40th lowest out of 121 defensemen with 1000 or more minutes. I will leave it to you to judge how comparable the two years were.

 

[Fourier]

I don't mean to barge in, but since I am here right now I though I'd pull up those numbers (Fourier, correct me if I am wrong here but I think I got them right).

You are correct with Staal.

My numbers were with all of his partners.

 

[LaGu]

Some good points by you too LaGu. My memory isn't as good as it once was, but did Klefbom not suffer a concussion that prematurely ended his draft-plus-one year too? I thought 2011-12 included some sort of semi-major injury that had Oilers fans worried about hindering Klefbom's development? That seemed to be stuck in my head when making those injury comments, but correct me if I'm wrong? Maybe Klefbom isn't as prone to injury as I was making him out to be?

A quick Google search turned up a couple results from our old HF friend Lowetide to refresh that memory of mine: http://oilersnation.com/2011/9/11/such-a-klefbom and http://lowetide.ca/2012/11/21/3-prospect-winter-2012-oscar-klefbom/ and this link out of Sweden confirms it was a concussion: http://swedishoil.dohfos.eu/post/12797732235/klefbom-injured-again

So there have been injury concerns with Klefbom essentially ever since he was drafted and thus the "injury-prone" label, although the shoulder stands out as the only real serious injury requiring major surgery.

I forgot about that concussion in 2011. He also got a hit to the head in a game during the summer of 2013 and missed the beginning of that year's camp if I remember correctly, but a concussion was never confirmed.

Ok, I can see why you label him as injury prone. I still don't worry that much about it though since most have been isolated in that they have not re-occurred. As I said, a foot there (2 games), cut tight in warm-up (5 games), finger (2 weeks, but then the staph came along), and so on. The shoulder, as you also mentioned, would be my only real worry but it has been ok for a while now.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Good work again Fourier, for anybody unsure what those numbers mean, essentially it means get excited about Adam Larsson. The kid has quietly put up numbers but not points. If he can handle the pressure of playing in Edmonton (devil's advocate...), then he has the potential to be a real good defender — potentially better than Anton Stralman.

 

[snipes]

Good work again Fourier, for anybody unsure what those numbers mean, essentially it means get excited about Adam Larsson. The kid has quietly put up numbers but not points. If he can handle the pressure of playing in Edmonton (devil's advocate...), then he has the potential to be a real good defender — potentially better than Anton Stralman.

Lots of us feel good about Larsson. His defensive responsibilities first approach could allow Klefbom to play with even more confidence knowing he can take offensive risks. Having a steady anchor like Larsson as a D partner for Klef is important going forward. Klefbom has all the tools to become a bona fide #1 Dman in the NHL, building trust knowing Larsson is covering for him benefits Klef in the long-term.

Larsson makes us better in our own zone and his ability to move the puck up the ice with a crisp first breakout pass will open up an entirely new dimension for our skilled forwards in transition. McDavid will catch many a defender flat footed or on a line change and blow by them while gliding.

For as tough as Canadian markets are perceived to be, the flip side is we treat our players like kings when they battle for us and produce. Give us a champion? Those guys will have impunity throughout the entire western provinces. We take care of our conquering heroes playing our game in the heartland of hockey.

We need to remind the NHL what it's like when the Oilers team gives the best fans in the NHL a winning team. A sizeable portion of casual American hockey fans have likely never seen an Oilers crowd when our team is in the playoffs. Time to take back what is ours. I haven't felt that we could compete for Lord Stanley in a very long time.

As a lifelong Oiler fan, even the memories of Todd Marchant scoring in game 7 during the 97 playoffs in Dallas are as fresh today as they were nearly 20 years ago. You knew those guys were overachieving, but they played 100% with everything they had. If our team plays that way, with our talent, I can visualize our team hoisting Lord Stanley. I haven't felt that way about the Oilers for over a decade.

 

[Larry Fisher]

Well said "snipes", there is certainly more reason for optimism heading into this season. Like you, I grew up following the Oilers in the mid-to-late '90s and those were some fun years and fun playoff series for sure. The current roster is more talented, so if McLellan can get working as hard and as smart as the team did back then, playoffs shouldn't be far off and competing for the Cup is a realistic possibility sooner than later. I do think the Larsson-Klefbom pairing has the potential to be something special over the next five-plus years. This article was just playing devil's advocate and pointing out the "what could go wrong" and "why" Oilers fans best not to get too far ahead of themselves. Time will tell...

Also, I see Jonathan Willis has put a spin on Larsson's metrics similar to Fourier's work here.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Well said "snipes", there is certainly more reason for optimism heading into this season. Like you, I grew up following the Oilers in the mid-to-late '90s and those were some fun years and fun playoff series for sure. The current roster is more talented, so if McLellan can get working as hard and as smart as the team did back then, playoffs shouldn't be far off and competing for the Cup is a realistic possibility sooner than later. I do think the Larsson-Klefbom pairing has the potential to be something special over the next five-plus years. This article was just playing devil's advocate and pointing out the "what could go wrong" and "why" Oilers fans best not to get too far ahead of themselves. Time will tell...

Also, I see Jonathan Willis has put a spin on Larsson's metrics similar to Fourier's work here.

It's not really "spin" though.

It's a look at underlying numbers. Fourier did a great job with it. It helps to reveal situational play and provide details on a player that are tough to gauge in real time.

 

[Oilman76]

If Klefbom can make it through the season healthy, the D will be better with the addition of Larsson. But that's almost like counting on winning the lottery... Has he made it through one season yet uninjured since being drafted?

 

[LaGu]

If Klefbom can make it through the season healthy, the D will be better with the addition of Larsson. But that's almost like counting on winning the lottery... Has he made it through one season yet uninjured since being drafted?

Well, no. But then again if you talk serious time lost then you have the shoulder injury in 12/13 and the staph infection in 15/16. Minor things lost a couple of games in 13/14 and 14/15 but I am not sure that is really relevant. Most players lose a couple of games per season.

I'd bet that he'll play 70+ games, more probable than not imo.

 

[misfit]

I actually think the defense will be better this year than people are expecting.

I know they added only one defenseman, and it's easy to say "one player isn't going to fix the defense". That's true, but adding one player at the top of the depth chart goes a lot farther in improving the overall defense than adding someone who would be a secondary option. The value in being able to push everyone else down one slot on the depth chart can't be overlooked. The year we added Pronger, we went from being an OK defense, to an excellent one. Larsson is a far cry from Pronger, I know, but we also didn't simply add him to the roster. His addition came at the expense of sending away our #1 Dman.

And in the case of the Oilers this year, we're essentially adding two players to the top of the defensive depth chart. Sekera/Fayne was inadequate as a top pairing last year, but as a second pairing, I'd argue that they're very good.

Klefbom was our best defenseman last year, and his absence was more impactful than any other, and we had some pretty big names go down. Adding him back into the mix and playing him with Larsson gives us a top pairing better than anything we were able to put on the ice last year, and both players (basically) weren't a part of what we had going on a year ago.

Then we have the maturation of Nurse and Reinhart. These are young inexperienced players, but they are also players with big time pedigree. Comparing Nurse to your average 21 year old defenseman is selling him a little short. All players (Drew Doughty aside) require a fair bit of seasoning and development before they can be counted on to be difference makers in the NHL, but history shows that learning curve is a lot shorter in the case of high end prospects like Nurse. He may not be Rob Blake next year, but I don't think it would be out of line to think he couldn't be on par or better than most 3rd pairing D around the league. And going forward, his development could spike at any time.

Reinhart's improvement was evident almost game by game last year (especially during his last call-up). Thinking he's going to be the same going forward is folly IMO.

Davidson was basically playing like a 2nd pairing guy all of last year until the injury. Now, he may not return to that form right away (knees always take a while even after the player has returned to action), but after what that kid has already overcome, I'm sure as hell not going to bet against him.

I don't know what our 3rd pairing will be, but a combination of Davidson/Nurse/Reinhart and anyone we may still add should be a good one.



I actually think our overall defense is very similar to the one we had in 02/03, and our defense was anything but bad those days.

Not comparing styles here, but this is how our defense matches up against that group:

Larsson - Brewer
Klefbom - Niinimaa
Sekera - Smith
Fayne - Staios
Nurse - Semenov
Davison - Ferguson
Reinhart - Pisa

Looks like a pretty favorable comparison to me. Neither group had a real good offensive defenseman, and that's probably the main downside for both. Otherwise, it's fairly solid.

 

[J0sh]

As an outsider its clear that you are still lacking an elite puck moving defenseman and will likely miss the playoffs until you find one despite your elite forward depth.

If I were your coach I'd be running the following D lines:

Sekera-Larsson
Fayne-Gryba
Davidson-Klefbom
Nurse
Sekera-Larsson is an elite 2nd line. Larsson may have potential but you still come up quite short.
Fayne-Gryba is just there to handle heavy minuites so your younger d can gain strength... If they are getting hurt they will never reach their potential
Klefbom-Davidson Neither of them are ready for 2nd line minutes, Klefbom has injury problems and both of them need to be sheltered. This should be an elite 3rd line but I'm guessing Klefbom gets put on the 1st line with Larsson which you will regret.
Nurse will soon be ready for top 4 minuites


Oesterle/Reinhart I wouldnt count on them.