Oilers and (lack of) Financial Incentive - a hypothesis

Behind Enemy Lines

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Feb 19, 2003
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Vancouver
Saw something interesting in the book Scorecasting. It looks at the Chicago Cubs over a century of futility. They make the point that despite this utter futility for 100 years the franchise attendance is always near capacity and financially successful. The economics makes winning irrelevant and thus a losing culture has little incentive for change. This is in contrast to the White Sox whose attendance and financial success is tied to their on field performance.

In fact, Cubs fans are 4x more upset about the increase of beer prices and virtually no pushback on ticket prices. A sad reality that there has been basically no financial incentive (likely the biggest criterion to inspire change).

This leads me to my issue with Oilers ownership. Full house or at least paid ticket wise, virtual monopoly market for entertainment dollar, merchandise sales, corporate sponsorship bucks and more. And a public paid palace to boot that will give even more money to feed the Katz private fortunes.

Now take that financial incentive one level down to a core group being paid on future potential versus the urgency of earning the paycheck by virtue of what they achieve NOW. Led me to an interesting question/hypothesis, on the basis of toilet bowl team results that continue; longstanding indifferent play and little sign of the extra effort and grit to play in harm's way to succeed and win, inability or indifference to change bad habits (one way play, little to no jam, or defensive zone effort, excuse making forgiving the sins of youth), could the Oil management removing the financial incentive of its harum of elite picks be reinforcing a losing culture instead of inspiring the culture change needed out of humiliation.

We hear a lot of passive complacency from the Oilers coach and players in interviews and bafflegab about process and not results while conversely seeing and reading the hard cold truth of accountability by Stanley Cup winning coaches like Babcock and Hartley, the latter's team fuels the incompetence exposure of Eakins, MacT up to Katz.
 
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oobga

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Aug 1, 2003
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I think many people, including myself, have resigned to the idea that nothing will change with the Oilers until that sell-out streak ends and the brand is damaged enough that Katz has no choice but to clean house in management.

With the 9th non-playoff year, the falling Canadian dollar and the big Oil price drop, we might finally get there next season.

One can only hope.
 

Toydarian

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Jun 2, 2009
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In a sad, mascicist sorta way, Oilers fans are their own enemies.

If people didn't show up to games to watch such a pathetic team, maybe there would be more extreme changes.
 

EnthusiasticYak

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Mar 7, 2014
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These are my thoughts exactly.

I think Katz is obviously leaving money on the table with no playoffs, but he's definitely not losing money. Plus at the end of each year they get a new marketing chip to sell to the fans. Even if nothing changes personnel-wise this year, people will still come back either way to watch Nurse and whichever top talent they get next draft.

I think it's also important to consider the percentage of seats that are sold which are from businesses and are therefore tax write offs.
 

Billy Barou

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Mar 4, 2011
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Katz's money was made on the real estate. Oilers were simply the catalyst and now an afterthought.
 

UglyStupidAds

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Sep 17, 2005
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Edmonton
I'm tired of this whole angle. Do you not think that Katz, Lowe, MacT et. al are competitive guys? You can argue that they aren't the right people to be in charge but I'm sure they desperately want to win.

Furthermore the probability of enough people taking their entertainment dollars elsewhere for the Oilers to notice seems minuscule enough that it's not worth talking about. Go ahead and make your statement by not buying tickets or merchandise but please stop calling for citywide boycotts of the Oilers.
 

Behind Enemy Lines

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Feb 19, 2003
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I'm tired of this whole angle. Do you not think that Katz, Lowe, MacT et. al are competitive guys? You can argue that they aren't the right people to be in charge but I'm sure they desperately want to win.

Furthermore the probability of enough people taking their entertainment dollars elsewhere for the Oilers to notice seems minuscule enough that it's not worth talking about. Go ahead and make your statement by not buying tickets or merchandise but please stop calling for citywide boycotts of the Oilers.

The last two labour disputes were firmly about this 'angle' and how to carve up a billion dollar pie between its one percent owners and millionaire workforce. Both parties reminded everyone this is a business first and foremost.

Pretty sure all you name are competitors - one is a savvy billionaire and two are multiple Stanley Cup champions. They no doubt want to win, however, the loyalty df Edmonton paying customers ensure it is first principles, a profitable business.

Not sure who is directing for citywide boycotts, not me. Just posing an interesting question and a reminder what the NHL and this team's owners have stated as their priorities.

Take the blue pill and everything will seem fine... (Movie reference but kinda fitting this team is owned by a Pharmacy kingpin lol )
 

DJ Omnimaga

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Sep 23, 2012
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I think many people, including myself, have resigned to the idea that nothing will change with the Oilers until that sell-out streak ends and the brand is damaged enough that Katz has no choice but to clean house in management.

With the 9th non-playoff year, the falling Canadian dollar and the big Oil price drop, we might finally get there next season.

One can only hope.

THat said, if attendance averages at 16,838 instead of 16,839 next season, I'm sure that Bettman will start threatening to move the team to Las Vegas, Arizona (if Coyotes move), Florida (if they move) or Seattle (even if they have no plan for a new arena).
 

oobga

Tier 2 Fan
Aug 1, 2003
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THat said, if attendance averages at 16,838 instead of 16,839 next season, I'm sure that Bettman will start threatening to move the team to Las Vegas, Arizona (if Coyotes move), Florida (if they move) or Seattle (even if they have no plan for a new arena).

Would he? Oiler fans have proven all you need is the slightest glimmer of hope here and people are crawling over each other to get into the arena. The only reason you will fail to sell every ticket is almost a decade of horrible mismanagement, and maybe not even, we still haven't seen the end of the sellout streak yet after years of last or near last place finishes. It only took the Canucks being bad for 1 season for their streak to end.

The NHL would be foolish to not always have a franchise here, all they need is slightly competent people running the team and they get to swim in the millions from sold out games and merchandise sales. If anything Katz should be taking heat from the rest of the league for screwing up what should be automatic revenue for this golden situation here and hurting the revenue sharing numbers for other teams.
 

chrisj

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Mar 7, 2005
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16,800 fans * $80 ticket prices * 2 home playoff games = $2.7 million per round that the team misses out on when it doesn't make the playoffs. That ignores concessions, parking, increased merchandising sales, etc. So yeah there is financial incentive to make the playoffs.
 

oobga

Tier 2 Fan
Aug 1, 2003
23,202
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16,800 fans * $80 ticket prices * 2 home playoff games = $2.7 million per round that the team misses out on when it doesn't make the playoffs. That ignores concessions, parking, increased merchandising sales, etc. So yeah there is financial incentive to make the playoffs.

$80? Where does that number come from? Would think it's much more.
 

T-Funk

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Oct 15, 2006
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16,800 fans * $80 ticket prices * 2 home playoff games = $2.7 million per round that the team misses out on when it doesn't make the playoffs. That ignores concessions, parking, increased merchandising sales, etc. So yeah there is financial incentive to make the playoffs.

Whats 2.7million of 2.8 billion or whatever he's worth? Like someone who only has a 500,000 dollar house to their name throwing away 500 bucks.
 

rboomercat90

Registered User
Mar 24, 2013
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Edmonton
I'm tired of this whole angle. Do you not think that Katz, Lowe, MacT et. al are competitive guys? You can argue that they aren't the right people to be in charge but I'm sure they desperately want to win.

Furthermore the probability of enough people taking their entertainment dollars elsewhere for the Oilers to notice seems minuscule enough that it's not worth talking about. Go ahead and make your statement by not buying tickets or merchandise but please stop calling for citywide boycotts of the Oilers.

I don't understand why you are equating competitive with competent. These guys have been proving for years they aren't capable of fixing this team while constantly stating how bad they want to win. They have never been held accountable for the team's performance. Sure, scapegoats have been offered up but Lowe and Mactavish have never had to pay for failure. We thought Mactavish had been fired only to find out a couple years later he wasn't. If ownership doesn't see performance on the ice as a reason to go in a different direction then maybe he'll be inspired to change direction if his bottom line starts getting affected. He is in the business of providing entertainment to the fans and he's charging a premium for it too. He's best to keep that in mind before people start deciding it isn't worth it any more.
 

Replacement*

Checked out
Apr 15, 2005
48,856
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Hiking
This thread is halfbaked.

While its true that all tickets are sold its also true that there have been games this year with up to 5K empty seats.

Gate is only one source of revenue. All of Concessions, Booze sales, Merchandise sales and parking take a hit if thousands of people are not showing up. Merchandise sales would have to be hurting right now. I can't imagine anybody right now having an Oiler they want to buy a jersey of.

So the Oil are missing out on a lot of revenue. Not to mention playoff revenue.
 

StoveTopStauffer

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Apr 6, 2012
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Whats 2.7million of 2.8 billion or whatever he's worth? Like someone who only has a 500,000 dollar house to their name throwing away 500 bucks.

When you factor an entire playoff run and the merchandise, media coverage, sponsorship, concession it's probably a lot of money lost not making the playoffs.

I'd even say more if he decides to have a stake in any surrounding hotels around the new arena.

A solid playoff run is probably quite lucrative and he's no Buffett-Gates to be able to slough off a hundred mill here and there and in a Canadian hockey heavy market a playoff run is probably worth a good amount.
 

freedomisamyth

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Nov 10, 2010
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Sigh, I wish people would stop bringing this 'theory' up. It doesn't make a lot of sense.

1. Everyone involved are very competitive people.
2. The team is going pretty close to the cap, so it's not like they are skimping on costs.
3. The team would make a lot MORE money if they were winners.

What incentive is there to lose? Absolutely 0.

Fact is, this is just an unbalanced roster, and management miscalculated in throwing the kids in to a position of leadership too early - it's a lot harder to ignore the 'right' way to play when there is a team of angry veterans looking at you in your first couple years, than when you are the obvious best players and leaders of the team and just have a few plugger veterans yapping at you. I understand your point about giving the kids big salaries too quickly, but they were getting paid millions no matter what, 6 million rather than 2 million doesn't change your attitude much I don't think.

They'll figure it out eventually, but they definitely prolonged the suckitude by some decisions that did not work out.
 

Up the Irons

Registered User
Mar 9, 2008
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Canada
yes, they are competitive, but, at the same time, they have adopted a team philosophy whereby losing is the strategy to acquire top-end talent. Ostensibly, losing is acceptable.

So, are they really that competive, right now, in the present?

They seem pretty comfortable with their own results. That the organization does not lose money has got to be at least part of the reason why Katz is so willing to give these clowns unlimited time. They are now talking about a decade long rebuild, FCOL!!! and that is acceptable in their minds!!!

that is not being competitive.
 

Cawz

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Sep 18, 2003
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Oiler fan in Calgary
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I'm tired of this whole angle. Do you not think that Katz, Lowe, MacT et. al are competitive guys? You can argue that they aren't the right people to be in charge but I'm sure they desperately want to win.

Yeah, this thread is silly. The people in charge care a lot more than the people in this thread or anyone else in the city for that matter. Hell, I'd go so far as to say the people in charge seem to care more than the players on ice more often than not.
 

T-Funk

Registered User
Oct 15, 2006
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Yeah, this thread is silly. The people in charge care a lot more than the people in this thread or anyone else in the city for that matter. Hell, I'd go so far as to say the people in charge seem to care more than the players on ice more often than not.

Disagree. These mythical "bold" moves would have occurred if they cared about winning.
 

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