Prospect Info: OHL Prospects Review

[Brock]

https://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2017/07/31-teams-in-31-days-philadelphia-flyers.html

Annual look at the progression of Philadelphia's OHL prospects, in addition to prognostication for next year.

As always, happy to answer any questions.

Click to read more...

 

[Stizzle]

On Morgan Frost...

He was dynamite for SSM on the powerplay this year, using his terrific skating ability to carve up the open ice and find openings. Moving forward, adding size will be critical for Frost. He has the smarts, but getting stronger will make him a better 5 on 5 player, and a better two-way player.

Didn't Frost score 42 of his 62 points at 5v5? That is one of the main things that made him attractive.

 

[deadhead]

To live up to his 1st rd status, Frost needs to make the "big jump" his post draft year and push or exceed 100 points. That's pretty normal for top playmakers at that age who are future #2 centers.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Mark Scheifele - 47GP 63P
JT Miller - 61GP 62P
Boone Jenner - 43GP 49P
Brandon Saad - 44GP 76P (late birthday)
Vincent Trocheck - 65GP 85P
Tobias Rieder - 60GP 84P
Tanner Pearson - 66GP 42P (drafted last year eligible)
Andreas Anthanasiou - 66GP 67P
Bo Horvat - 54GP 74P
Andre Burakovsky - 57GP 87P
Ryan Hartman - 52GP 53P (late birthday)
Sam Bennett - 11GP 24P
Robby Fabbri - 30GP 51P

That's notable OHL forwards from the 2010-2014 drafts & their D+1 seasons in which they didn't reach that threshold.

 

[CapnZin]

I'm really excited about Bunnaman. I think he'll be our Simmonds 2.0 or Wade Allison will.

Idk about Frost. I think Philly jumped the gun on him. I hope I'm wrong tho.
If I got to choose who was drafted I would've taken Ratcliffe in Frosts place then Rasanen (6'7 215 Dman) in Ratcliffes place. I'm high on Rasanen though. Has Morins potential but could be an offensive threat. Best slapped to come from the draft.

I've heard that Maxim sushko had a weird year on the draft boards. Wasn't he like really high up at one point then went down the boards too?

 

[Larry44]

Thanks, Brock!

 

[deadhead]

Alex DeBrincat 63g 65-62 127
Taylor Raddysh 58g 42-67 109
Adam Mascherin 65g 35-65 100
Nick Suzuki 65g 45-51 96 [pre-draft year]
Jordan Kyrou 66g 30-64 94
Christian Dvorak 66g 41-68 109
Mitchell Marner 57g 39-77 116
Dylan Strome 56g 37-74 111
Matthew Tkachuk 57g 30-77 107 [pre-draft season]

Morgan Frost, with a May birthday, is underage for his class, he'll be 18 for the full season. So he might not match most of the top draft picks the last couple years - but he should still significantly improve.

67g 20-42 62 last year
60g 30-60 90 is a reasonable expectation this year

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

You keep claiming he needs to hit that threshold to reach a certain level of play in the NHL which clearly isn't true as examples I showed above. In general though it's a dumb argument either way as stats without any to little context is meaningless.

 

[deadhead]

It provides a general sense of improvement, he's a playmaking center who should rack up points, if he can't score at this level, what exactly does he bring to the table? Sure, linemates and the quality of his team can move the numbers up or down, but he should be on a top line in his post-draft season, where even bad teams have enough talent to help you score.

He was a 1st rd pick, if he was a 3rd rd pick you'd be comfortable with a slower development path.

 

[Striiker]

Making incorrect claims and acting like they're fact is 90% what he does. What else would you expect?

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Making incorrect claims and acting like they're fact is 90% what he does. What else would you expect?

I don't expect really anything at this point it's just funny. I pretty much know his mo which is height/weight measurements, standalone stats, & cliches.

 

[deadhead]

So you'd be happy with a 60-70 point season out of Frost in his post-draft year?

Laberge struggled with a legitimate explanation and people here really downrated him.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I would need to see the whole picture to make a judgement.

Laberge got downrated because that legitimate explaination was a serious concussion. The potential ramifications of that type of injury is going to give people pause especially when you weren't the most consistent player to begin with.

 

[Magua]

Frost will be on a worse team, but his usage might go up a bit. Don't know if that's good or bad or meaningless for his numbers. If he gets 80 points, give or take, in 60 games, that's a good developmental season for him.

I hope he follows the path of someone like Trocheck, though he played with some really good players like Saad.......and his D+2 year was pretty great with 133 points in 78 games. That's a high bar.

Alex DeBrincat 63g 65-62 127
Taylor Raddysh 58g 42-67 109
Adam Mascherin 65g 35-65 100
Nick Suzuki 65g 45-51 96 [pre-draft year]
Jordan Kyrou 66g 30-64 94
Christian Dvorak 66g 41-68 109
Mitchell Marner 57g 39-77 116
Dylan Strome 56g 37-74 111
Matthew Tkachuk 57g 30-77 107 [pre-draft season]

Nice list, though I prefer the one with all the proven NHL players on it. We don't even know what most of that list can do at the NHL level. 2/3 of your list are just London Knights and Erie Otters playing on super teams together. Plus some top 5 picks. I'm sure Taylor Raddysh gets 109 points on SSM. Mascherin might just be a juniors scorer, he has a lot to prove. I like Kyrou -- he's a D+1 bloomer for sure and that scoring was all him. And Suzuki was another point scoring monster on a powerhouse. But yeah, that or bust!

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Laberge struggled with a legitimate explanation and people here really downrated him.

He was pretty damn mediocre before the Malatesta hit. Of course there's an SSS there, but blaming it all on the injury is absurd.

 

[deadhead]

My point is simply that scorers score, so scoring is a legitimate measure of Frost's improvement. They didn't draft him to be Couts, they drafted him to be Giroux.

Sure, teammates make a difference, but we're talking a 1st rd pick, not someone like Leier (who had 48 goals and 80+ points his post-draft year), your best prospects should drive play, not be dependent on playing with top teammates.

Frost's biggest handicap will be his age and his slight frame, and the two factors go together. However, he should be stronger this year, which could mean even more speed, and with better ice sense. And that should translate to a significant increase in scoring.

I'd apply the same standards to Rubtsov if he returned to juniors for his draft +2 - I'd expect him to completely dominate in juniors, and to hold his own if sent to the AHL.

 

[Magua]

Plus Laberge's biggest issue has been his consistency and putting it together and not being invisible out there. He's essentially had one half of a strong season in his junior career, which just so happened to be the second half of his draft year. He'd get more leeway if this wasn't already a thing with him. He's got a ton to prove; he wasn't some sure thing to begin with.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Taylor Leier never had a season of 48 goals & 80+ points nonetheless in his D+1 season.

Draft year - 72GP 13G 37P
D+1 - 64GP 27G 62P
D+2 - 62GP 37G 79P

He played on those really high scoring Portland teams as well.

Draft year - 328GF 1st (18 goal lead on 2nd place team)
D+1 - 334GF 1st (25 goal lead on 2nd place team)
D+2 - 338GF 1st (28 goal lead on 2nd place team)

 

[Magua]

He played on those really high scoring Portland teams as well.

Speaking of which........Leipsic, Rattie, Petan........WOW. Can only hope Frost gets 100+ like each of them in their D+ years. Or else.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

As LoD said, those Portland teams were stacked.

Leier's D+1 included D+1 Leipsic, Draft Nic Petan, D+2 Rattie, Draft Bjorkstrand, Draft Seth Jones, D+2 Wotherspoon, and a super young Bittner.

His D+2 had D+2 Leipsic, D+1 Petan, D+1 Bjorkstrand, D+2 Derrick Pouliot, D+2 Dumba, and D-1 Bittner.

Leier was 6th and 5th in scoring on those teams, behind mostly younger players.

 

[Pantokrator]

Mark Scheifele - 47GP 63P
JT Miller - 61GP 62P
Boone Jenner - 43GP 49P
Brandon Saad - 44GP 76P (late birthday)
Vincent Trocheck - 65GP 85P
Tobias Rieder - 60GP 84P
Tanner Pearson - 66GP 42P (drafted last year eligible)
Andreas Anthanasiou - 66GP 67P
Bo Horvat - 54GP 74P
Andre Burakovsky - 57GP 87P
Ryan Hartman - 52GP 53P (late birthday)
Sam Bennett - 11GP 24P
Robby Fabbri - 30GP 51P

That's notable OHL forwards from the 2010-2014 drafts & their D+1 seasons in which they didn't reach that threshold.

I'm really impressed how fast you came up with that info. Thanks!

 

[deadhead]

Meh, I was thinking AK and said Leier.

Now there's this late 1st rd pick a year ago:
Konency 60g 30 -71 101
year before 60g 29-39 68
That's an example of a smaller, underage late 1st rd pick making the substantial post-draft jump in production

 

[JojoTheWhale]

Konecny was a top 15ish player in an unbelievable draft. Konecny or bust is not a reasonable mindset.

 

[Garbage Goal]

I think I lost the point of this back-and-forth about ten posts ago. At this point, one guy is just throwing examples at a bunch of other guys who are also throwing examples back at him. All of which pertain to an argument that doesn't make sense to begin with.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I'm really impressed how fast you came up with that info. Thanks!

It wasn't really hard, just skimmed through on Wikipedia draft pages.

In reality it's meaningless as it's treating all players equal which isn't the case as well as just looking at numbers on the surface. The only context I supplied was whether the players were late birthdays with that "extra development year" & that one guy wasn't drafted until the last possible chance. The list was just to show that's it's stupid to say there's some definite type of point threshold that determines a player's NHL future.

If that was the case someone should tell Scheifele he has no business scoring 143 points in his last 150 games because he didn't come anywhere close to scoring 100 points his first year after being drafted in juniors.

Another point is Frost was a late first rounder. Everybody wants to hit the home run but the odds of that range suggest if the end game is that you land a useful NHL player it's a not a bad pick at all.