OHL poised to lose a TON of talent to USHL/BCHL, CHL is sweating bullets.

NTDP

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Overall play I'd say on average they're close but the talent on NCAA teams varies wildly. A BC, BU, Michigan or Denver would most likely beat the top CHL teams. Taking a step down from those few top teams that have most of the top NHL picks to say a Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc they'd have close games vs CHL teams. There's 60 NCAA teams though and over half don't have much for talent on the roster who'd get beat by CHL teams. The talent level in the CHL is better but the age advantage makes the NCAA tougher. The NCAA defenders always bring up the BCs, BUs, Denvers but never bring up the Nebraska-Omahas, Canisus', Lindenwoods, Merrimacks, Mercyhursts, etc. So on average I'd say CHL teams are better but on the high end NCAA would be better and win vs any CHL team
Nebrasaka-Omaha has 6 NHL draft picks and reached the NCHC championship and lost to Denver. They beat a good North Dakota team to get there too.

Let's stop discussing who'd win CHL vs NCAA and just look at the players. Way more undrafted kids will get signed by NHL teams than kids that went CHL and never get drafted, which is the majority of them. The NCAA route as it stands right now is the best route for your development unless you're a stud at 16-17. And even then it doesn't mean it's CHL only, Macklin Celebrini could have gone to the CHL and shredded it.

Canisius produced the goalie that transferred to Michigan that got them to the frozen four and is a good goaltender. Lindenwood is a brand new program, let's see where they end up. St. Thomas was a start up a few years ago and they've already made huge strides beating top programs and are now recruiting well. Merrimack just had three kids sign pro deals and were a good team in hockey east. They also have a kid name Zach Bookman on D who could have a pro future, he's been high end since his Millbrook days.

People act as if it's just the same 4-5 NCAA teams we defend. Nearly all these teams have good players. I was at an Erie vs Kitchener game like a week and a half ago and the level of play wasn't any better than two middle of the pack NCAA teams. Believe me I like the CHL and follow it, but some of these takes I'm seeing on here shows some of you don't watch a shred of NCAA hockey and just go by opinions that are outdated.
 

WarriorofTime

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Overall play I'd say on average they're close but the talent on NCAA teams varies wildly. A BC, BU, Michigan or Denver would most likely beat the top CHL teams. Taking a step down from those few top teams that have most of the top NHL picks to say a Michigan State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc they'd have close games vs CHL teams. There's 60 NCAA teams though and over half don't have much for talent on the roster who'd get beat by CHL teams. The talent level in the CHL is better but the age advantage makes the NCAA tougher. The NCAA defenders always bring up the BCs, BUs, Denvers but never bring up the Nebraska-Omahas, Canisus', Lindenwoods, Merrimacks, Mercyhursts, etc. So on average I'd say CHL teams are better but on the high end NCAA would be better and win vs any CHL team
Nah, you're overrating CHL talent here because the talent is so widely dispersed and diluted across the Leagues.

Take the Everett Silvertips, they finished in 3rd place in the western conference of the 22 team WHL. They're in the second round of the WHL Playoffs, will probably get swept, but that makes them an upper 1/3 team in the League, and probably in all of the CHL. They have 3 NHL draft picks on their roster. Two 04-born Sixth Round picks and One 05-born Fifth Round pick. The Finnish kid on their roster may go 2nd or 3rd round this year, and maybe they'll have another guy or two that can challenge for a very late round pick. They have an average age of 18.42,

It's awfully ambitious to think they're better than a team like Nebraska-Omaha with 5 NHL draft picks on their roster. An 02-born Fourth round pick, An 02-born Fifth round pick, An 02-born Sixth round pick on Defense and an 03-born Fourth round pick and an 04-born Third round pick. That is a team that finished in the middle of the NCHC this season. Nebraska-Omaha's average was 22.19. So you're asking Everett to make up an average of four years of age via "talent", when it's pretty unclear they have much, if any of a "talent" advantage to even begin with.
 

NTDP

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Nah, you're overrating CHL talent here because the talent is so widely dispersed and diluted across the Leagues.

Take the Everett Silvertips, they finished in 3rd place in the western conference of the 22 team WHL. They're in the second round of the WHL Playoffs, will probably get swept, but that makes them an upper 1/3 team in the League, and probably in all of the CHL. They have 3 NHL draft picks on their roster. Two 04-born Sixth Round picks and One 05-born Fifth Round pick. The Finnish kid on their roster may go 2nd or 3rd round this year, and maybe they'll have another guy or two that can challenge for a very late round pick. They have an average age of 18.42,

It's awfully ambitious to think they're better than a team like Nebraska-Omaha with 5 NHL draft picks on their roster. An 02-born Fourth round pick, An 02-born Fifth round pick, An 02-born Sixth round pick on Defense and an 03-born Fourth round pick and an 04-born Third round pick. That is a team that finished in the middle of the NCHC this season. Nebraska-Omaha's average was 22.19. So you're asking Everett to make up an average of four years of age via "talent", when it's pretty unclear they have much, if any of a "talent" advantage to even begin with.
Plus their coach Dennis Williams is leaving for the head coaching job at Bowling Green next year. But he admitted in his presser it's not a CHL vs NCAA thing, he's an alumn of Bowling Green and credits where he is today to the development that school game him on and off the ice. The coaching in the NCAA is up there too, CHL has some great ones as well. Look at Stan Butler and what he's done.
 
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landy92mack29

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Nah, you're overrating CHL talent here because the talent is so widely dispersed and diluted across the Leagues.

Take the Everett Silvertips, they finished in 3rd place in the western conference of the 22 team WHL. They're in the second round of the WHL Playoffs, will probably get swept, but that makes them an upper 1/3 team in the League, and probably in all of the CHL. They have 3 NHL draft picks on their roster. Two 04-born Sixth Round picks and One 05-born Fifth Round pick. The Finnish kid on their roster may go 2nd or 3rd round this year, and maybe they'll have another guy or two that can challenge for a very late round pick. They have an average age of 18.42,

It's awfully ambitious to think they're better than a team like Nebraska-Omaha with 5 NHL draft picks on their roster. An 02-born Fourth round pick, An 02-born Fifth round pick, An 02-born Sixth round pick on Defense and an 03-born Fourth round pick and an 04-born Third round pick. That is a team that finished in the middle of the NCHC this season. Nebraska-Omaha's average was 22.19. So you're asking Everett to make up an average of four years of age via "talent", when it's pretty unclear they have much, if any of a "talent" advantage to even begin with.
NHL draft picks is opening up a whole new can of worms haha. Once you get to the 4th, even 3rd round NHL teams go heavy NCAA/Europe because they're on a longer development path(4 years control) vs CHL has 2 years before have to sign. Better to look at who actually gets ELCs or even AHL deals. Miettinen will probably go in the 1st this year(at least 2nd), Smith will be a 2nd or 3rd, Rymon should go mid rounds, Heslop late rounds then Bear is looking like a potential 1st for next year. One of Nebraska-Omaha's draft picks who somehow got a elc from the Canucks played for the former AJHL current BCHL team I scout for even. If he had decided to play for Prince George he'd be a middle 6 guy for them this year
 
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WarriorofTime

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NHL draft picks is opening up a whole new can of worms haha. Once you get to the 4th, even 3rd round NHL teams go heavy NCAA/Europe because they're on a longer development path(4 years control) vs CHL has 2 years before have to sign. Better to look at who actually gets ELCs or even AHL deals. Miettinen will probably go in the 1st this year(at least 2nd), Smith will be a 2nd or 3rd, Rymon should go mid rounds, Heslop late rounds then Bear is looking like a potential 1st for next year. One of Nebraska-Omaha's draft picks who somehow got a elc from the Canucks played for the former AJHL current BCHL team I scout for even. If he had decided to play for Prince George he'd be a middle 6 guy for them this year
AHL analysis would require a lot more work. I'll use the Rockford Icehogs since I'm familiar with their roster this year.

Goalies:
Drew Commesso - American NCAA 2nd round pick (legit prospect)
Jaxon Stauber - American NCAA Undrafted (on NHL deal, less priority prospect)

Defense:
Ethan Del Mastro - Canadian CHL 4th round pick (legit prospect)
Wyatt Kaiser - American NCAA 3rd round pick (legit prospect)
Isaak Phillips - Canadian CHL 5th round pick (legit prospect)
Nolan Allan - Canadian CHL 1st round pick (legit prospect)
Louis Crevier - Canadian CHL 7th round pick (legit prospect)
Filip Ross - Swedish SHL Undrafted (on NHL deal, fading prospect)
Josh Healey - Canadian NCAA Undrafted (AHL deal, AHL vet)
Austin Strand - Canadian CHL Undrafted (AHL deal, AHL vet)
Josh Maniscalco - American NCAA Undrafted (AHL deal, AHL/ECHL vet)

Forward:
Brett Seney - Canadian NCAA 6th round pick (on NHL deal, AHL vet)
Dave Gust - American NCAA Undrafted (on NHL deal, AHL vet)
Cole Guttman - American NCAA 6th round pick (legit prospect)
Mike Hardman - American NCAA Undrafted (on NHL deal, 2-way deal guy)
Rem Pitlick - American NCA 3rd round pick (on NHL deal, tweener)
Anders Bjork - American NCAA 5th round pick (AHL deal, AHL vet)
Michal Teply - Czech Extraliga 4th round pick (NHL deal, fading prospect)
Jackon Cates - American NCAA Undrafted (AHL deal, AHL vet)
Colton Dach - Canadian CHL 2nd round pick (legit prospect)
Ryder Rolston - American NCAA 5th round pick (legit prospect)
Jaylen Luypen - Canadian CHL 7th round pick (legit prospect)
Luke Philp - Canadian CHL and USports undrafted (on NHL deal, AHL vet)
Brandon Baddock - Canadian CHL 6th round pick (AHL deal, AHL vet)
Bryce Kindopp - Canadian CHL undrafted (AHL deal, AHL non-prospect)
Zach Sanford - American NCAA 2nd round pick (on NHL deal, tweener)
Antti Saarela - Finnish Liiga 4th round pick (NHL deal, fading prospect)
Marcel Marcel - Czech CHL 5th round pick (AHL deal, unsigned prospect)
Logan Nijhoff - Canadian CHL undrafted (AHL deal, AHL/ECHL kid)
Kale Howarth - Canadian NCAA 5th round pick (AHL deal, unsigned as draft pick, AHL/ECHL guy)

Pretty mixed bag that doesn't really paint a clear picture between NCAA/CHL when you open it up beyond just clear drafted, developing prospects. There are obviously lots of nuances and turns to every player's journey that would make the post too long (an example, Mike Hardman was an undrafted guy but went to a top program in BC, then left after his Sophomore year and was in-demand enough at the time to get an 8 game extended end of year tryout with the Blackhawks in 2020-21, which certainly suggests he was a legit NHL prospect at the time, played 21 NHL games in 2021-22 and 8 NHL games in 2022-23 but wasn't good enough to hold down a spot and now at 25 looks like he's heading towards being a career AHLer). I also don't know how representative that particular team is.
 
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Torts

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It’ll be completely irrelevant with ZERO impact on the CHL.

Let’s think it through logically - - why would a player suddenly decide to go play in the NCAA after having a successful first year in the CHL? And does anyone honestly think a player drafted by the NHL in the 1st, 2nd or 3rd round is going to go play in the NCAA for a year or two?

The only players this will impact are the ones not good enough to make it as a regular in the CHL or not good enough to advance beyond being a 4th line player.
Yes lol. Just look at the past two drafts. I'm probably missing some but here are the notables. I think your logic might be flawed lol.

2022
Cooley, Rinzel, Fisher, Finley, Fegaras - 1 year in NCAA to date.
Gauthier, McGroarty, Nazar, Snuggerud, Howard, Lund, Chesley, Casey, Hughes, Lorenz, Hutson, Kaplan - 2 years in NCAA

2023
Fantilli played 1 year as a freshman and went straight to the NHL after drafted.
Smith, Perrault, Leonard, Willander, Wood, Moore, Stramel, Nadeau, Brindley, Hrabel, Augustine, Strbak, Nelson, Fowler all played 1 or more NCAA season
 

Donnie740

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I don't know what you mean here. Draft picks from the 1st round have gone to the NCAA for years.

Once a 16yr old/17yr old/18yr old player is established in the CHL, there’s ZERO chance of them leaving the CHL and moving to the NCAA.

Jake O’Brien had a fantastic rookie season in Brantford. Porter Martone had a fantastic second year in Mississauga. Anyone think there’s a remote chance of those two deciding to move to the NCAA next year or the year after? Tij Iginla and Beckett Sennecke are both guaranteed first round picks in this year’s NHL draft. Anyone think there’s even a 1-in-a-million chance that those two would ever leave the CHL to go play in the NCAA?

There’s not a chance in hell players of that calibre are going to leave the CHL for the NCAA. None whatsoever. ZERO.

As explained numerous times, it’ll be players languishing on the 4th line or sitting in the press box unable to crack a roster. Or a 20yr old who’s not good enough to get an OA spot anywhere.

There’s always going to be the occasional outliers who don’t go to the CHL but still manage to become great NHL players. Guys like Makar, Quinn Hughes or Adam Fox who are too undersized and need to physically grow up or have family ties to the NCAA or just need more years to develop in the NCAA.

But for the most part, the NCAA will get the leftovers that the CHL doesn’t want. Just as it’s always been.
 

MuckOG

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Once a 16yr old/17yr old/18yr old player is established in the CHL, there’s ZERO chance of them leaving the CHL and moving to the NCAA.

Jake O’Brien had a fantastic rookie season in Brantford. Porter Martone had a fantastic second year in Mississauga. Anyone think there’s a remote chance of those two deciding to move to the NCAA next year or the year after? Tij Iginla and Beckett Sennecke are both guaranteed first round picks in this year’s NHL draft. Anyone think there’s even a 1-in-a-million chance that those two would ever leave the CHL to go play in the NCAA?

There’s not a chance in hell players of that calibre are going to leave the CHL for the NCAA. None whatsoever. ZERO.

As explained numerous times, it’ll be players languishing on the 4th line or sitting in the press box unable to crack a roster. Or a 20yr old who’s not good enough to get an OA spot anywhere.

There’s always going to be the occasional outliers who don’t go to the CHL but still manage to become great NHL players. Guys like Makar, Quinn Hughes or Adam Fox who are too undersized and need to physically grow up or have family ties to the NCAA or just need more years to develop in the NCAA.

But for the most part, the NCAA will get the leftovers that the CHL doesn’t want. Just as it’s always been.

2 of the last 4 #1OA picks were Canadian kids going the NCAA route.

It's not the "same as its always been". It's very different now. 10+ years ago, you never would've seen as many elite Canadians going the NCAA route as we see today.
 
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RayMartyniukTotems

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I’ve been saying the OHL in particular but WHL as well needs a tender system yesterday. The best kids shouldn’t have to get drafted and go where they’re told. Where else in the world do we do that with 15 year old amateurs. The kids just happy to be on any team, that’s fine. But the teams should be allowed to have up to 2 tenders per year. If an organization is just a flat out better place to develop than others, the best and most in-demand kids in the region shouldn’t be hamstrung by a draft that forces them to go play for a mess.
Its the beginning of the End of the Draft and it will be the same at the Pro ranks...why should a player go to a team that drafts him only to find he has 4-5 players positionally ahead of him...this is hypothetically...And I think NHL teams are thinking they'd like to develop kids their own way before age 20 if he has out grown the CHL cause in point Shane Wright...Thus players go to the USHL and BCHL and Collegeranks...play a year or two and voila they are seeing themselves in the AHL if not NHL
 

WarriorofTime

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But for the most part, the NCAA will get the leftovers that the CHL doesn’t want. Just as it’s always been.
It's pretty obvious to me that you know this isn't true at this point, but are just doing your thing to do your thing.

Teams play well over half their games in-conference, there is a separation of power conferences and non-power conferences, same as every NCAA sport. Not sure if some Canadians don't understand the nuances of NCAA sports well enough to know how this works. In a sport like basketball, a One and Done NBA prospect that goes to Kentucky and a kid that goes to Eastern Kentucky in the Atlantic Sun are both nominally going to play Division 1 Men's Basketball, but their paths are very divergent, and one is playing power conference competition with and against high-level recruits that have a chance at making the NBA, the other is playing with and against lower rated recruits that were passed over by the big schools and it is extremely rare for an NBA player to come out of there.

It works the exact same in Men's Ice Hockey. The Big Ten, Hockey East and NCHC are a very different level of hockey than Atlantic Hockey and CCHA. They aren't really going after the same recruits, they only compete non-conference which are glorified tuneups for the teams from the tougher conferences before the meaty part of their schedule. Unlike the CHL, nobody is getting drafted into the NCAA. The top players are congregating on the teams in the big conferences (which have their own hierarchies amongst each other as well but are more subject to swings based on coaching hires/trends, etc.).

People that have anecdotes of some player they know that was in a lower level junior league that went to go play NCAA Hockey doesn't work if they went to go play for a bottom level team. It says very little about the potential options facing players that are considered to have legitimate (not a longshot) pro potential. There is another factor I won't go too deep into related to the difference between headcount sports and ones like hockey that divide up scholarships (and I think some low level D1 teams don't even have scholarships). But point being, not every kid on the roster is getting a full ride or anywhere close to it (different from football and men's basketball).
 

Torts

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Once a 16yr old/17yr old/18yr old player is established in the CHL, there’s ZERO chance of them leaving the CHL and moving to the NCAA.

Jake O’Brien had a fantastic rookie season in Brantford. Porter Martone had a fantastic second year in Mississauga. Anyone think there’s a remote chance of those two deciding to move to the NCAA next year or the year after? Tij Iginla and Beckett Sennecke are both guaranteed first round picks in this year’s NHL draft. Anyone think there’s even a 1-in-a-million chance that those two would ever leave the CHL to go play in the NCAA?

There’s not a chance in hell players of that calibre are going to leave the CHL for the NCAA. None whatsoever. ZERO.

As explained numerous times, it’ll be players languishing on the 4th line or sitting in the press box unable to crack a roster. Or a 20yr old who’s not good enough to get an OA spot anywhere.

There’s always going to be the occasional outliers who don’t go to the CHL but still manage to become great NHL players. Guys like Makar, Quinn Hughes or Adam Fox who are too undersized and need to physically grow up or have family ties to the NCAA or just need more years to develop in the NCAA.

But for the most part, the NCAA will get the leftovers that the CHL doesn’t want. Just as it’s always been.
You seriously can't make up this level of delusion. Even narrowing it down to Canadians, I guess Adam Fantilli, Owen Power, Macklin Celebrini, Josh Nadeau, Kent Johnson, Alex Newhook and oh Cale Makar are "leftovers".
 
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Donnie740

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It's pretty obvious to me that you know this isn't true at this point, but are just doing your thing to do your thing.

Teams play well over half their games in-conference, there is a separation of power conferences and non-power conferences, same as every NCAA sport. Not sure if some Canadians don't understand the nuances of NCAA sports well enough to know how this works. In a sport like basketball, a One and Done NBA prospect that goes to Kentucky and a kid that goes to Eastern Kentucky in the Atlantic Sun are both nominally going to play Division 1 Men's Basketball, but their paths are very divergent, and one is playing power conference competition with and against high-level recruits that have a chance at making the NBA, the other is playing with and against lower rated recruits that were passed over by the big schools and it is extremely rare for an NBA player to come out of there.

It works the exact same in Men's Ice Hockey. The Big Ten, Hockey East and NCHC are a very different level of hockey than Atlantic Hockey and CCHA. They aren't really going after the same recruits, they only compete non-conference which are glorified tuneups for the teams from the tougher conferences before the meaty part of their schedule. Unlike the CHL, nobody is getting drafted into the NCAA. The top players are congregating on the teams in the big conferences (which have their own hierarchies amongst each other as well but are more subject to swings based on coaching hires/trends, etc.).

People that have anecdotes of some player they know that was in a lower level junior league that went to go play NCAA Hockey doesn't work if they went to go play for a bottom level team. It says very little about the potential options facing players that are considered to have legitimate (not a longshot) pro potential. There is another factor I won't go too deep into related to the difference between headcount sports and ones like hockey that divide up scholarships (and I think some low level D1 teams don't even have scholarships). But point being, not every kid on the roster is getting a full ride or anywhere close to it (different from football and men's basketball).

Let’s see how many 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks from the OHL priority draft decide to choose the NCAA instead. I expect VERY few, if any.
 

Torts

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Let’s see how many 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks from the OHL priority draft decide to choose the NCAA instead. I expect VERY few, if any.
That's a flawed way to view it. The higher talent who would have been top 3 round picks in the OHL get picked later because they're going to the NCAA - example. Alex Hage this year. The players picked in the top 3 rounds are selected there because they are the ones who choose to report.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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The big question for if CHL or mediocre NCAA teams are better comes down to what age talent starts mattering disproportionately as opposed to size, physicality, defensive play, system knowledge, and experience.

I think if you look at the prior World Cup of Hockey when the North American U23 All Stars were playing the best international teams of older players they weren’t the best. They still were at a disadvantage. So while I do think that age exists where talent matters disproportionately, I don’t think it’s any younger than like 23 or 24. It certainly isn’t like 19 or 20. It’s probably 25 or 26.
 

WarriorofTime

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The big question for if CHL or mediocre NCAA teams are better comes down to what age talent starts mattering disproportionately as opposed to size, physicality, defensive play, system knowledge, and experience.

I think if you look at the prior World Cup of Hockey when the North American U23 All Stars were playing the best international teams of older players they weren’t the best. They still were at a disadvantage. So while I do think that age exists where talent matters disproportionately, I don’t think it’s any younger than like 23 or 24. It certainly isn’t like 19 or 20. It’s probably 25 or 26.
Canada super teams assembled from the best of 60 different CHL teams and loaded with first round picks a year or two away from the NHL typically play USports pro hockey rejects pretty evenly in exhibitions (and the Canada kids are trying, they are still figuring out final roster spots so they want to make good showings).
 

Isaac Nootin

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That's a flawed way to view it. The higher talent who would have been top 3 round picks in the OHL get picked later because they're going to the NCAA - example. Alex Hage this year. The players picked in the top 3 rounds are selected there because they are the ones who choose to report.
And still 2 of the top 10 selected seem to be headed the NCAA route.

Fitzgerald (3rd overall)
Malholtra (8th overall)

Atleast 3 others ranked in the Top 10, and Top 3 in one case (Nyman) , dropped to later rounds due to commitments in the USHL and BCHL.

This year more than ever kids are taking where they play into there own hands. The trend will continue going forward.
 

WarriorofTime

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Along with seeing a lot of great prospects, the tournament also got me thinking about some of the big-picture issues swirling around the development world right now. For instance: Is major junior hockey in trouble?
I think the question itself is a bit sensationalist. It's not "in trouble", in that I don't see reason to think it's going to fold or disappear overnight. It is and will remain a prominent NHL feeder path, it's just a more crowded landscape these days. Once upon a time, you could look at Major Juniors and have a mostly complete view of the landscape, you may go from like 60-65 % of first round picks to 25-30 % of first round picks. It is more like ceding of an overwhelming advantage than "alarm" in a more real sense.

They should of course do a tender system. It's certainly better for their league to not lose the top region kids, even if ultimately they will still have good enough kids in the league and give the people a cheap friday/saturday night live sport entertainment option whether there's a couple less 1st round picks scattered across 20 teams.

So here's my modest proposal: Since more high-level players are choosing the college route lately, major junior needs to try the tender model. Give kids the option of choosing their team and see where it goes. If you're worried about parity, consider that the USHL's past five championship teams have all been different. If a team is worried about getting left behind, then perhaps they need to improve their operation. As one agent told me recently, "There are some great programs in the OHL - Kitchener and London, for example - then there are some not so great programs."
More than anything, it's the last sentence that matters the most. A tender is about FAIRNESS for the player, which should override fairness for the adults that are poorly running developmental teams. When a player is good enough, they deserve to have options. They are still amateurs, they're not getting 7-figure deals that can become 8-figure deals in a few years that lead to the sort of consideration to say "you don't want to play for Buffalo, tough sh____t". Development players being entirely subject to the whims of a draft order completely removes their agency from the process.
 

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