Official 2015 tank thread IV

[MayDay]

It was sustainable for Buffalo because Buffalo was dead last in corsi-for close and Fenwick For percentage close. Edmonton is 20th in each. Edmonton is bad, just not as bad as their record.

There are two ways of looking at it:

1) Edmonton's advanced stats indicate that they are not as bad a team as their record suggests, or

2) Advanced stats are an imperfect measure, and their Corsi and Fenwick misleadingly suggest that they are a better team than they actually are, but actually they really are as bad as their record.

Personally I lean more towards #2. Advanced stats are a useful tool but they don't tell the whole story about a team. Edmonton is clearly a team that is less than the sum of its parts. Their advanced stats may say that they should be be better, but they just aren't.

 

[Zip15]

There are two ways of looking at it:

1) Edmonton's advanced stats indicate that they are not as bad a team as their record suggests, or

2) Advanced stats are an imperfect measure, and actually their Corsi and Fenwick misleadingly suggest that they are a better team than they actually are, but actually they really are as bad as their record.

Personally I lean more towards #2. Advanced stats are a useful tool but they don't tell the whole story about a team. Edmonton is clearly a team that is less than the sum of its parts. Their advanced stats may say that they should be be better, but they just aren't.

#1, add "but they have horrific goaltending." That's a part of a hockey team, I admit. But their skaters are better than their record dictates.

 

[Zip15]

I would have liked to have seen how the Oilers performed with Pouliot and Perron on the roster. Pouliot drives puck possession and has put up solid ES scoring numbers this year--and he gives them a little more of a size presence on the PP, as demonstrated last night. Both there, along with the addition of Roy, would've really solidified those middle lines, which, again, allows them to keep their big line together (Hall-RNH-Eberle).

Unfortunately, MacT pulled the trigger once Pouliot was ready to return. Oh well.

 

[Namejs]

you would not be trying to predict how a team performs in the second half of the season utilizing their first half of the season as a reference point. That is fallacious and downright stupid.

I'm not sure what you're talking about right now. I'm genuinely not even sure whether you're trolling or being serious at this point. You just repeated what I already said countless times, and presented it as a criticism directed at me. You've done this a number of times now.

Look up the previous thread. I originally responded to a guy making a linear projection based on the current Oilers record and claiming that the Sabres have literally no chance of finishing the season 30th.

The 2 main points that I made were:
1) the Sabres have a realistic shot at finishing 30th;
2) it doesn't make sense to make a linear projection based on their current record.

After that I made a point that *if* we do make a future projection, we should acknowledge the fact that all the available evidence points to the fact that bad luck has had a significant effect on the current Oilers record.

If we're making a future projection, it obviously is impossible to take into account future events that can't be predicted or accounted for in any meaningful way. Bringing that up is redundant.

1. Oilers Schedule had the easiest stretches early on in the season.

As evidenced by what?

2. Countless times has a team started out great only to collapse later, or started out poor only to have a strong end to the season. Many times a team will have a linear progression. You're trying to tell people that this 'luck' thing will lead them to have a better record, and assuming their play won't change. What if they perform better? Worse? How many teams perform the same at game 38 as they do in game 82?

I think I'm repeating this the third time now: I'm not saying that they will have a better record. We're talking about probabilities, not certainties. Read the wikipedia article on Probability Theory, if you don't understand the distinction between these two phenomena.

No one knows if they're going to have a better record or not. You're consistently misrepresenting my words and creating ridiculous straw man arguments.

There's no reason to believe things are going to change for the better just as there is no reason to believe things are going to change for the worse, but you keep pretending there's reason.

There's a number of reasons to assume that it is likely that their record will improve. The predictive power of PDO, etc., is the only arguable part of my posts and you haven't even tried to address it yet. You haven't made a single point about Rob Vollman's Luck Chart.

Your argument is just really stupid and requires too many assumptions, and the fact is, no one can know how the season will go, and you're not being sensible by trying to suggest otherwise.

"Your argument is really stupid" is not really a valid counter-argument. Oh, and another strawman, awesome.

 

[Namejs]

In case anyone didn't see, Roy drew the penalty that led to their PP tally that tied the game at 1 last night. He is our secret agent.



I get that you're dusting off the "watch the games, stat nerds" defense, but I have watched as many Oilers games as anyone in here--of that I am quite confident (thanks, pregnant wife who's asleep by 9:30 every night!)--and I reach a different conclusion than you. While they have their share of bonehead plays, I see little to no discernible difference in the amount of bad plays they make to other bottom-10 teams.

The biggest difference is that, until the past week or so, they couldn't get even average goaltending to save their lives. Their goaltenders weren't keeping them in games, and, on most nights, were playing them out of games. It's no coincidence that they haven't been defeated in regulation over the last three games when Scrivens gives them a solid night of work.

It's an unpopular opinion around here, but I think we are worse than the Oilers. I believe that if we played in the WC and the Oilers in the EC--against which they have a very respectable 6-4-1 record--we'd be trailing them by (at least) six points. Heck, we have a worse goal differential in a far easier conference.

Let's count 'em up after 82 and decide who was the worse team after this season.

By the way, I'd really like to know how and why do the Sabres have a worse goal differential than the Oilers, if the Oilers have a Rochester-tier D corps and worse goaltending. How is that even possible?

Heraldic, if you could give an answer to this question, that would be great.

 

[RecycledEichel]

Now these are the Sabres I've been waiting the past month for.. This is fun!!!

 

[NEcoli]

Subtract Myers and this team can absolutely compete with Edmonton for last.

 

[Zip15]

Subtract Myers and this team can absolutely compete with Edmonton for last.

They can compete with Edmonton with Myers. The team was exceedingly healthy until about three weeks ago and they still needed a stretch of white-hot goaltending and then unsustainable shooting to eke out wins that helped us ascend to, what, 25th? This team, with or without Myers, is every bit as bad, or worse, than Edmonton.

The team is just regressing to the mean.

 

[Montag DP]

New Jersey is up 3-0 on the Flyers, that's good.

 

[Zip15]

New Jersey is up 3-0 on Philly. A good night for the tank so far.

 

[1972]

Myers is getting overrated here, he is damn good. But some are acting like he is Zdeno Chara or Shea Weber. We had 52 points last season with him, we have been brutal this year with him as well besides the hot streak. And I imagine we will be bad when he comes back.

 

[Beerz]

They can compete with Edmonton with Myers. The team was exceedingly healthy until about three weeks ago and they still needed a stretch of white-hot goaltending and then unsustainable shooting to eke out wins that helped us ascend to, what, 25th? This team, with or without Myers, is every bit as bad, or worse, than Edmonton.

The team is just regressing to the mean.

Agreed.


Now we just have to see how much that worthless streak cost us (if at all).

 

[NEcoli]

They can compete with Edmonton with Myers. The team was exceedingly healthy until about three weeks ago and they still needed a stretch of white-hot goaltending and then unsustainable shooting to eke out wins that helped us ascend to, what, 25th? This team, with or without Myers, is every bit as bad, or worse, than Edmonton.

The team is just regressing to the mean.

No they aren't. Edmonton is going to be as bad as last years' Sabres, maybe worse. Buffalo isn't that bad.

Arguing they're just "regressing to the mean" ignores the fact that they fell off a cliff with this recent rash of injuries, the most damaging of which was clearly Myers'.

 

[Jame]

Myers is getting overrated here, he is damn good. But some are acting like he is Zdeno Chara or Shea Weber. We had 52 points last season with him, we have been brutal this year with him as well besides the hot streak. And I imagine we will be bad when he comes back.

Nobody has acted like that since ~2011

 

[1972]

Nobody has acted like that since ~2011

I was going off twitter...

 

[Zip15]

No they aren't. Edmonton is going to be as bad as last years' Sabres, maybe worse. Buffalo isn't that bad.

Arguing they're just "regressing to the mean" ignores the fact that they fell off a cliff with this recent rash of injuries, the most damaging of which was clearly Myers'.

Right, we just had a similar or worse goal differential than Edmonton the entire time Myers was healthy because why again? And we play in the far weaker conference. We are as bad, or worse, than Edmonton.

 

[NEcoli]

Myers is getting overrated here, he is damn good. But some are acting like he is Zdeno Chara or Shea Weber. We had 52 points last season with him, we have been brutal this year with him as well besides the hot streak. And I imagine we will be bad when he comes back.

He's nowhere near Chara or Weber's league. But on this team, with the lack of defensive depth, he makes a big difference. Take him out of the lineup and it's basically two teenagers and a bunch of minor-leaguers back there.

 

[NEcoli]

Right, we just had a similar or worse goal differential than Edmonton the entire time Myers was healthy because why again? And we play in the far weaker conference. We are as bad, or worse, than Edmonton.

They don't get an extra lottery ball for playing in a weaker conference. If they are as bad as Edmonton - which I don't agree with - they still have a 6 point handicap and an easier schedule to overcome.

 

[Namejs]

A 3 point game in Arizona with Coyotes winning would be great too. But let's not get greedy here.

Btw, MUST LOSE games vs. Devils and Canes are coming up next week. I hope everyone has already marked them in khaki green on their calendars.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I was going off twitter...

Then why did you say "Myers is getting overrated here" (emphasis mine)

 

[Zip15]

They don't get an extra lottery ball for playing in a weaker conference. If they are as bad as Edmonton - which I don't agree with - they still have a 6 point handicap and an easier schedule to overcome.

They've knocked off four points in, what, four days? I'm not concerned.

 

[sjci]

New Jersey is up 3-0 on Philly. A good night for the tank so far.

4-0 now. I just hope Philly doesn't backdoor themselves into the bottom window. You never know with their goaltending.

 

[ZeroPT*]

4-0 now. I just hope Philly doesn't backdoor themselves into the bottom window. You never know with their goaltending.

Mason is actually pretty solid. Emery OTOH..

 

[Namejs]

4-0 now. I just hope Philly doesn't backdoor themselves into the bottom window. You never know with their goaltending.

5-0 now. Nothing better than a nice boost of confidence before the Sabres game.

 

[Zip15]

4-0 now. I just hope Philly doesn't backdoor themselves into the bottom window. You never know with their goaltending.

As a charter member of both "Philly is a stale team and is going to stink this year" and the conspiracy theory that the Flyers are going to magically win McDavid, this obviously doesn't surprise me. Still, they're probably just good enough at home to stay out of the bottom-5.