Speculation: Offer sheet Point

[Leonardo87]

Don’t see Stralman coming back now has not looked very good. J.T. Miller has struggled even playing with the elite talent. Move on from those guys, should be enough cap space even if Point comes in at 8 million. It leaves another 7 million plus(cap going up by maybe 4?) to replace bottom D, and to re-sign Paquette. Plenty of space.

 

[DFC]

Don’t see Stralman coming back now has not looked very good. J.T. Miller has struggled even playing with the elite talent. Move on from those guys, should be enough cap space even if Point comes in at 8 million. It leaves another 7 million plus(cap going up by maybe 4?) to replace bottom D, and to re-sign Paquette. Plenty of space.

Anything so Callahan gets to play out his contract.

Miller hasn't played with much elite talent this year. When he has, on the 1st PP unit, he's put up points. Aside from maybe 6-7 games, he's been in the bottom-six this year.

 

[BLNY]

The emergence of Cernak this season has done wonders for the future outlook. You're still working with Hedman-Sergachev/McDonagh-Cernak as your top 4. Allows Foote or Masin to take the 5/6 and a cheaply acquired UFA can fill in the hole, assuming the team thinks one of Foote/Masin isn't ready.

Only gets sweeter if they can move Miller without taking salary back or if they can find a way to dump Callahan.

I don't know their prospect pool outside Foote, so I was unaware of who might be ready. I think they likely ride out Callahan if 2 of the kids can move up. Callahan doesn't directly impact Point, and he's off books for Vasilevskiy. It's only if the club feels they need to address the impending UFAs on defense from outside the club.

 

[God King Fudge]

I don't know their prospect pool outside Foote, so I was unaware of who might be ready. I think they likely ride out Callahan if 2 of the kids can move up. Callahan doesn't directly impact Point, and he's off books for Vasilevskiy. It's only if the club feels they need to address the impending UFAs on defense from outside the club.

For sure.

It's definitely going to be tricky, especially if they just skip the bridge and go to a full 7/8xwhatever. Best case scenario is that Foote and Masin are both ready and they don't have to fill any holes on D, but you're losing a ton of experience in Coburn, Stralman and Girardi.

Maybe if the team wins the Cup they don't really worry so much about that since the guys they have now are playoff tested pretty well at this point.

I still think they do their best to move Miller for futures and they'll kick the tires on a Callahan dump, but with only a year left, they aren't attaching a good prospect or pick with him.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Why?

Aren't both Matthews and Point more highly touted than Aho?

You're paying 4 1st round picks. That's the cost (plus a likely overpayment on salary) to get the player. Why not go for the best available?

As for the OP - I would pay a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round pick in a heartbeat to be able to sign Point to a 4 yr 8M contract. As would probably 29 other teams.

1. Point will refuse the offer
2. Tampa will not only match, they'd offer him more.

I mentioned why in my post.

 

[Dooble08]

I understand that offer sheets aren't used often. But to be honest the goal would be to put the best possible team on the ice. I would bet my bank account that one of Point, Matthews, or Marner receive an offer sheet from someone in the offseason if a deal isn't signed first.

 

[WJCJ]

Just thinking out loud. If you were a team that had the space would you Offersheet B. Point to a 4 x 8M contract. That walks him to a year before his UFA year but still allows him Arbitration rights and the ability to walk in his first available UFA year. It only costs the offering team a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rd which is a great deal. I also see TB having trouble matching that deal even with 11M is cap space going UFA on the back end unless Tampa wants to slot in a bunch of 5/6 journeyman.

Assuming Point agrees to the sheet it's lose/lose for Tampa. They either lose one of their better players, match the offer and get tight to the cap resulting in them icing a substandard D corps, or needing to trade players (Cally/Miller) to make space.

I don't think Point would sign a contract like that. Why would he? He could get a 7 year deal easily. If he's going to sign a restricted free agent offer sheet he is going to do it for money and he is not going to leave $24 million on the table.

 

[Hawkaholic]

GMs would be a lot smarter if they offersheet players in their own division/conference from teams that will have cap issues moving forward. Sure, you may not get the player you gave an OS to, but it will weaken them in some other way.

 

[AndreRoy]

Offer Point 7 years at 12.5M, give up four first round picks, Tampa probably doesn't match.

I honestly think we would. After trading Miller we can afford about $10M without losing anyone else; clearing another $2.5M wouldn’t require too large of a sacrifice to be worth keeping one of the best young players in the game. Go above that and we’d probably have to consider taking the picks, but then we’d have the cap space to make a play for Panarin and four first round picks to use as trade bait for other purposes. And that’s all assuming Point would sign the offer sheet in the first place. So good luck crippling the Lightning with that approach.

 

[LordZapp]

Pointer will not be offersheeted period. I can see it happening with Marner though.

 

[Drew311]

Pointer will not be offersheeted period. I can see it happening with Marner though.

I don't think anyone will be offersheeted. My thinking is as follows:

1) The cap number would have to be huge for teams to not match, hence the player will be overpaid.
2) If the offersheet isn't matched the team acquiring the player gets one really good player that will plug up their salary structure
3) Generally teams sending offersheets are bad, and wouldn't contemplate sending 4 first round picks for one player. You need cheap, young talent continually contributing to your team, and giving away four years of drafting in the first round goes completely against this.

 

[Lempo]

I will preface this with my standard, no one offer sheets anyone anymore.

However, if I were to OS someone and it was going to be a center I think I'd look at Sebastian Aho. Great young player and Carolina doesn't seem to want to pay their players.

It would be a waste of time because they aren't stupid enough to not match and an offer they wouldn't match would be stupid. Which is why OS's are stupid.
But he would be the target for me.

Dundon named last summer Aho the only player who is surefire to stay in the team. Plus, after the Skinner debacle I don't think they'd very open to trading another leading point hog for picks.

The sum offered would so have to be serious overpayment (and length), which would also mean the compensation picks combo would be a hefty one.

Tangential note on the Offer Sheets, I wouldn't think it actually comes to an actual legit Offer Sheet with anyone, because the agent will obviously get the unofficial offer without signing anything which offer he will then take to the current team unofficially for auction purposes, and if the offer gets matched it gets matched in the dark without anyone making it a public showdown where someone would look bad.

 

[DanM]

1) He won't get OS
2) If you really think Tampa wouldn't match a 4x8, I dunno if I can trust you
3) He won't get OS

I will go out on a limb and say not a single offer sheet will happen lol

They are just not used.

 

[DFC]

Pointer will not be offersheeted period. I can see it happening with Marner though.

Meh, I don't know. I don't think it'll happen in either case, but, if one is more likely than the other, I think it might be Point, mainly because JBB is a rookie GM. I know, I know, Dubas is too, but Dubas is under Brendan Shanahan, and I think people still have a lot of respect for Shanahan and don't want to burn that bridge. So I think JBB is the more likely to be "tested out" so to speak.

But, again, I doubt it happens to either of them. Offer sheets are just hard to make work. The best reason to do it might be to smash a rival's cap structure, but then that just comes back to bite you when it comes time to sign your own players, and you've got a couple of vastly overpaid RFAs out there to use as comparables.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Maybe I'm missing something, and someone will jump in to help out.

Assume the cap goes up to $84M next year.

Tampa has 10 forwards signed for $50.4M
Tampa has 4 defenders signed for $16.2M
Add 2 Goalies at $4.65M (what a deal)
And 1 Buyout at $1.83M

Totals $73.1M

That leaves Tampa with $10.9M and no less than 6 players to sign. If Point gets a $10M offer sheet they'll need to free up $5M + $1M per player they release. At the end of the day Erne could be the Bolt most vulnerable to an OS.

 

[AndreRoy]

Maybe I'm missing something, and someone will jump in to help out.

Assume the cap goes up to $84M next year.

Tampa has 10 forwards signed for $50.4M
Tampa has 4 defenders signed for $16.2M
Add 2 Goalies at $4.65M (what a deal)
And 1 Buyout at $1.83M

Totals $73.1M

That leaves Tampa with $10.9M and no less than 6 players to sign. If Point gets a $10M offer sheet they'll need to free up $5M + $1M per player they release. At the end of the day Erne could be the Bolt most vulnerable to an OS.

Trading Miller for futures (which will not be a problem) frees up another $5.25M, giving us $16.15M with 7-8 players to sign. If Point gets $10M that leaves us $6.15M for the other 6-7 players. Which seems like a problem except we’re talking about our botton three or four forward roles and our bottom three defensemen roles. The RFA forwards currently in those roles will not cost much to resign and can easily be replaced from within our system if necessary; replacing the departing UFA defensemen will be a bit trickier as our depth is weaker in that area, but the 6D and 7D roles are not particularly critical and can be filled cheaply.

The only place we will probably find ourselves wanting to have a little more money to spend will be on our 5D - ideally we’d like a decent veteran capable of carrying the bottom pairing opposite somebody like Foote, or possibly to pair with Serg if we decide we’d rather let Hedman or McDonagh shelter Foote (or whoever our 6D ends up being.) Which is why we will probably try to trade Callahan with retention to minimize/eliminate the incentive required to move him while freeing up a few million in cap space to improve our defensive depth next season.

Theoretically we could also trade McDonagh and/or Gourde before their new contracts and full NTCs kick in July 1st. Neither is likely to happen (especially McDonagh) but the possibility does exist.

Anyway the point is we are in no danger of losing Point, and if somebody like Erne were to receive and sign an offer sheet it’s not going to hurt us in any real way. Now next season will be more difficult and possibly more painful as we’ll have Vasy, Cernak, Serg, Cirelli, and Joseph to sign. But that’s a topic for another discussion.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Trading Miller for futures (which will not be a problem) frees up another $5.25M, giving us $16.15M with 7-8 players to sign. If Point gets $10M that leaves us $6.15M for the other 6-7 players. Which seems like a problem except we’re talking about our botton three or four forward roles and our bottom three defensemen roles. The RFA forwards currently in those roles will not cost much to resign and can easily be replaced from within our system if necessary; replacing the departing UFA defensemen will be a bit trickier as our depth is weaker in that area, but the 6D and 7D roles are not particularly critical and can be filled cheaply.

The only place we will probably find ourselves wanting to have a little more money to spend will be on our 5D - ideally we’d like a decent veteran capable of carrying the bottom pairing opposite somebody like Foote, or possibly to pair with Serg if we decide we’d rather let Hedman or McDonagh shelter Foote (or whoever our 6D ends up being.) Which is why we will probably try to trade Callahan with retention to minimize/eliminate the incentive required to move him while freeing up a few million in cap space to improve our defensive depth next season.

Theoretically we could also trade McDonagh and/or Gourde before their new contracts and full NTCs kick in July 1st. Neither is likely to happen (especially McDonagh) but the possibility does exist.

Anyway the point is we are in no danger of losing Point, and if somebody like Erne were to receive and sign an offer sheet it’s not going to hurt us in any real way. Now next season will be more difficult and possibly more painful as we’ll have Vasy, Cernak, Serg, Cirelli, and Joseph to sign. But that’s a topic for another discussion.

Thank you for the very thoughtful reply. I appreciated reading it.

 

[CupsOverCash]

He wouldn’t sign it. He’s in an excellent situation in Tampa. Good team that will be able to give him a good deal and a chance to win for a long time. No need to start a rift with the team.

 

[Rschmitz]

I do think there is a threshold where if a team offers a certain # for Point, we balk and take the picks. It will never come to that