Offensive/Defensive Zone Start Relevance

[izlez]

I'm not the biggest believer in advanced metrics in hockey, but one thing that strikes me as odd is how often zone starts are brought up. It seems like one of the most commonly used advanced stats, especially used when comparing other stats.


....but is there data to suggest that this is at all a statistically relevant thing to be looking at?


It just seems like probably < 1% of goals are scored after an offensive zone faceoff without the puck first leaving the zone, so why do we care so much?



If anything, to me, it seems like it's measuring the coach's confidence in a player to clear the zone, or to get a scoring chance. That does seem like a useful thing when evaluating a player, but it's not at all what the analytics people tell us it means.

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[King In The North]

I've read from multiple advanced stats articles/analysts that over time, Offensive and Defensive zone Start becomes irrelevant when it comes to points projection.

I use these metrics to determine what kind of role/trust the coach has in their players.

Example, if Mikael Backlund starts more in the D zone, then it's safe to say that Gulutzan trusts him more in the defensive zone. I would not however, say that because he starts in the D zone more often than not, that this would hinder his ability to score. Backlund has great possession metrics, so I would also say that Gulutzan not only trusts him in his own end, but he also expects him to win that faceoff and transition into the Ozone.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

qoc is better for determining how easy/hard ice time is. however it is flawed because "quality" is subjective.

 

[ijuka]

I'm not the biggest believer in advanced metrics in hockey, but one thing that strikes me as odd is how often zone starts are brought up. It seems like one of the most commonly used advanced stats, especially used when comparing other stats.


....but is there data to suggest that this is at all a statistically relevant thing to be looking at?


It just seems like probably < 1% of goals are scored after an offensive zone faceoff without the puck first leaving the zone, so why do we care so much?



If anything, to me, it seems like it's measuring the coach's confidence in a player to clear the zone, or to get a scoring chance. That does seem like a useful thing when evaluating a player, but it's not at all what the analytics people tell us it means.

There used to be a site(RIP) that adjusted for zone starts and it had the effect of zone starts only at around 1% CF% one way or another. Maybe a bit more in the extreme cases like Panarin with Hawks. But no, it's not very significant.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Zone starts are a helpful stat

 

[Canadiens1958]

I've read from multiple advanced stats articles/analysts that over time, Offensive and Defensive zone Start becomes irrelevant when it comes to points projection.

I use these metrics to determine what kind of role/trust the coach has in their players.

Example, if Mikael Backlund starts more in the D zone, then it's safe to say that Gulutzan trusts him more in the defensive zone. I would not however, say that because he starts in the D zone more often than not, that this would hinder his ability to score. Backlund has great possession metrics, so I would also say that Gulutzan not only trusts him in his own end, but he also expects him to win that faceoff and transition into the Ozone.

No, simply Backlund is his best option in the defensive zone in most situations, based on the Flames internal stats and game plan. Trust has nothing to do with it.

 

[King In The North]

No, simply Backlund is his best option in the defensive zone in most situations, based on the Flames internal stats and game plan. Trust has nothing to do with it.

That's probably the better way of putting it, yes.

 

[DJJones]

There's game where Backlund has 100% defensive starts. He doesn't even get neutral zone starts sometimes.

If everything else was the same, it seems like his advanced stats and point totals would improve if the opposite scenario happened. How could it not. It's simply easier to score when you are already in the zone.

 

[King In The North]

The same could be said with FO% too, though. The more faceoffs won, the assumption is that your possession metrics are better because you already have the puck. However the past couple of years have shown the best faceoff teams are actually some of the worst teams in the league.

 

[93LEAFS]

There's game where Backlund has 100% defensive starts. He doesn't even get neutral zone starts sometimes.

If everything else was the same, it seems like his advanced stats and point totals would improve if the opposite scenario happened. How could it not. It's simply easier to score when you are already in the zone.

Because a majority of NHL changes are on the fly it makes minimal difference. It has more value in being reflective of how Calgary chooses to use Backlund, than the effect it has on his numbers.