Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen

[atreyuavenged]

Feels like agents and or players are just tacking on the Jays name in discussion to drive the price up.

Lindor would be nice but I'd rather ship Grichuk in that deal.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Ace maybe moving? Where he could land


Thats a no from me dawg.

Maybe if the Jays window was closing and we were one pitcher away. But no interest in trading 3 premium prospects in 1 deal no matter how good Snell is.

That's a no from me too. I'd rather go after someone like Darvish. He'd be much cheaper in a trade and have him for a few years. Sign Paxton as well and suddenly we have a great rotation. Ryu/Darvish/Pearson/Paxton/who cares. That's a great starting 5. That who cares guy has some real potential too.

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Feels like agents and or players are just tacking on the Jays name in discussion to drive the price .

Based on what?

 

[Cloned]

What I think will happen:

Bauer
Realmuto
Jansen + for Lindor
Kim

Springer to the Mets
LeMahieu back to Yankees

 

[Petes]

What I think will happen:

Bauer
Realmuto
Jansen + for Lindor
Kim

Springer to the Mets
LeMahieu back to Yankees

Lol, you’re going to be disappointed.

 

[Puckstuff]

No disrespect to Gurriel, but if he is the principal piece in a trade for Lindor you do it... There is really no comparison between the two. This of course assumes you can resign Lindor.

3 years, 15 million for 3 + war Gurriel

8 years, 250 million for 6 war Lindor

You can keep Gurriel and get a 3 war player in FA to make up the difference for a lot less then the expected 250 million it will take to keep Lindor

 

[kb]

3 years, 15 million for 3 + war Gurriel

8 years, 250 million for 6 war Lindor

You can keep Gurriel and get a 3 war player in FA to make up the difference for a lot less then the expected 250 million it will take to keep Lindor

How much will the subsequent 5 years of Gurriel cost if this is the tack you are taking? It's not like he will be playing for free for 5 years after this deal.

 

[Bjindaho]

How much will the subsequent 5 years of Gurriel cost if this is the tack you are taking? It's not like he will be playing for free for 5 years after this deal.

1 of those is an arb year, then the rest are fa.

 

[kb]

1 of those is an arb year, then the rest are fa.

Yep. It's not like Lindor is strictly a $250 million add when Gurriel and whatever his next 8 years of salary is going to be is going the other way. Front load the heck out of Lindor and it could be quite manageable.

 

[Bjindaho]

Yep. It's not like Lindor is strictly a $250 million add when Gurriel and whatever his next 8 years of salary is going to be is going the other way. Front load the heck out of Lindor and it could be quite manageable.

That's not how the team accounts for contracts.

They accrue the expense over the term, meaning that Kim at 5x8 would be on our books for a little over 9.5M, for example.

Edit: Due to the one-time up front posting fee being accrued over 5 years.

 

[Bjindaho]

I would be happy to offer Lemahieu 3x20 with 2 vesting options for 20 each (based on an average of 300PA the previous 2 seasons)

I think that would help us immensely.

 

[Canada4Gold]

3 years, 15 million for 3 + war Gurriel

8 years, 250 million for 6 war Lindor

You can keep Gurriel and get a 3 war player in FA to make up the difference for a lot less then the expected 250 million it will take to keep Lindor

Diminishing returns. I'm not even arguing any trade does or doesn't make sense. Just that 6 WAR from 2 players is less valuable than 6 WAR from 1 player as you've used up an extra lineup spot to achieve the same thing. I would say you'd need to add a player between 4 and 5 WAR to achieve the same thing. 2 spots for 7-8 WAR roughly equivalent to 1 for 6 WAR give it wouldn't be that difficult to add the 2nd player for 1-2 WAR in the Lindor case.

 

[landy92mack29]

Plus Lindor is a very proven star player while Gurriel has been inconsistent over his entire career. I love and want to keep Gurriel but if you have the chance to have a Lindor long term you don't hesitate.

Ideally they can get Lindor for Hernandez and a mid tier prospect or 2.

 

[Bjindaho]

Diminishing returns. I'm not even arguing any trade does or doesn't make sense. Just that 6 WAR from 2 players is less valuable than 6 WAR from 1 player as you've used up an extra lineup spot to achieve the same thing. I would say you'd need to add a player between 4 and 5 WAR to achieve the same thing. 2 spots for 7-8 WAR roughly equivalent to 1 for 6 WAR give it wouldn't be that difficult to add the 2nd player for 1-2 WAR in the Lindor case.

Gurriel plus Lemahieu costs less and could put up 7 WAR

 

[Puckstuff]

Diminishing returns. I'm not even arguing any trade does or doesn't make sense. Just that 6 WAR from 2 players is less valuable than 6 WAR from 1 player as you've used up an extra lineup spot to achieve the same thing. I would say you'd need to add a player between 4 and 5 WAR to achieve the same thing. 2 spots for 7-8 WAR roughly equivalent to 1 for 6 WAR give it wouldn't be that difficult to add the 2nd player for 1-2 WAR in the Lindor case.

Yes, so a 4-5 WAR player like Springer/LeMahieu (with potential for more) for say 25 million/year plus keeping Gurriel Jr. on his low number could be a better $$ to WAR ratio then trading Gurriel Jr. for Lindor. Perhaps LeMahieu + Gurriel Jr. for 30 million could net 8 WAR with less term. Of course tracking WAR is quite hard... Fangraphs seems pretty bear on Gurriel Jr. surprisingly, but should be a minimum of 7 WAR for Gurriel + 1 of LeMahieu/Springer.

I think your assessment of 2 players at 7-8 WAR being equivalent to 1 player worth 6 WAR makes sense. Tracking projected WAR becomes the hard part.

I'd love Lindor I'm just hoping he comes to us via prospects or next years FA. The minute we need to give up something like Gurriel I would rather wait for next year FA

 

[Woodman19]

The thing is Lindor is less valuable to us if we sign him as a FA, all out young core are going to be one year closer to getting paid in arb years, Lindor loses a year of his prime while the competition for his services will be higher.

 

[dredeye]

Ace maybe moving? Where he could land


Thats a no from me dawg.

Maybe if the Jays window was closing and we were one pitcher away. But no interest in trading 3 premium prospects in 1 deal no matter how good Snell is.

That’s a really easy no for me. Really easy. That’s a gross overpayment

 

[Zanks]

The thing is Lindor is less valuable to us if we sign him as a FA, all out young core are going to be one year closer to getting paid in arb years, Lindor loses a year of his prime while the competition for his services will be higher.

I disagree, I don't think we are likely to compete this year anyway. I think we need another year of experience for Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Pearson, LG Jr, Jansen etc.

I think next year is basically perfect timing to get Lindor. Trading for him this year is premature, and wastes assets for a year where he likely won't be the difference maker between playoffs or going home. If we end up with Bauer, Springer or Realmuto, that obviously changes things.

Waiting also allows you to see what happens defensively with the infield ( I don't think we know enough about Bo at SS, Vlad at 1B/3B etc.).

 

[Scion]

3 years, 15 million for 3 + war Gurriel

8 years, 250 million for 6 war Lindor

You can keep Gurriel and get a 3 war player in FA to make up the difference for a lot less then the expected 250 million it will take to keep Lindor

By that logic am I to assume you prefer to add bargain value contracts and ignore the top of the FA market?

 

[Scion]

Yes, so a 4-5 WAR player like Springer/LeMahieu (with potential for more) for say 25 million/year plus keeping Gurriel Jr. on his low number could be a better $$ to WAR ratio then trading Gurriel Jr. for Lindor. Perhaps LeMahieu + Gurriel Jr. for 30 million could net 8 WAR with less term. Of course tracking WAR is quite hard... Fangraphs seems pretty bear on Gurriel Jr. surprisingly, but should be a minimum of 7 WAR for Gurriel + 1 of LeMahieu/Springer.

I think your assessment of 2 players at 7-8 WAR being equivalent to 1 player worth 6 WAR makes sense. Tracking projected WAR becomes the hard part.

I'd love Lindor I'm just hoping he comes to us via prospects or next years FA. The minute we need to give up something like Gurriel I would rather wait for next year FA

Is your desire for the Jays to maximize their WAR/$ or improve the roster as much as is practically possible?

 

[Discoverer]

Is your desire for the Jays to maximize their WAR/$ or improve the roster as much as is practically possible?

If they're operating within a set budget, then those are the same thing.

 

[Scion]

I think there are reasonable arguments against trading assets for the right to pay Lindor the most money in FA, but trading away Gurriel ain't one of them. Lindor could conceivably out WAR Gurriel's next 3 seasons in 2021.

 

[Scion]

If they're operating within a set budget, then those are the same thing.

This presumes that the same money is being spent. The post I responded to did not make that assertion.

 

[landy92mack29]

I disagree, I don't think we are likely to compete this year anyway. I think we need another year of experience for Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Pearson, LG Jr, Jansen etc.

I think next year is basically perfect timing to get Lindor. Trading for him this year is premature, and wastes assets for a year where he likely won't be the difference maker between playoffs or going home. If we end up with Bauer, Springer or Realmuto, that obviously changes things.

Waiting also allows you to see what happens defensively with the infield ( I don't think we know enough about Bo at SS, Vlad at 1B/3B etc.).

Except when the top tier FAs hit the open market they'll never pick Toronto ideally for them. Sure Ryu was a good get but the Jays 1st target was Cole and they couldn't get him. Same thing will more than likely happen when Lindor, Baez, Bryant, Correa, Seager, etc hit FA. Toronto can offer a competitive offer but they just won't be good enough. Now is the time to take advantage of their connections to Lindor and do what the Dodgers did with Betts in getting exclusive rights to him for a year basically. Now dodgers are in the yankees, red sox, cubs tier of clubs but Jays have an in with Lindor. From a positional needs perspective it's not the best fit but if you have a chance to get a top 10 player long term you simply make the move and figure out where people fit after. There's also the bonus of Lindor being a great person and can lead the young guns as they grow into the show.

 

[Discoverer]

My preference would be to keep the cheap ~3 WAR player at the organization's position of greatest weakness and instead use some pieces of their top tier farm system to add a star player, or just add one of several star players who's currently available for just cash.