Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season III: Ray/Semien out, Gausman in. Jays linked to everyone. Labor strife happening.

[al secord]

I was under the impression a lot of Jeter's fame came from his off field actions as well. He was just a really good guy all around, or so I gathered.

He loved handing out gift baskets.

 

[phillipmike]

Top 100 MLB prospects 2022: Keith Law's rankings, with Orioles' Adley Rutschman at No. 1

6. Gabriel Moreno
44. Orelvis Martinez
89. Kevin Smith (wow)
99. Jordan Groshans

25. Austin Martin

I may not be against having Smith and Espinal split 3B and Biggio get 2B. See what you have in these guys and if you still need a 3B, maybe the cost for Ramirez is less at the deadline. Or maybe Groshans' power shows up. Maybe spend short term money on Cruz and say a 5th starter.

 

[The Nemesis]

Top 100 MLB prospects 2022: Keith Law's rankings, with Orioles' Adley Rutschman at No. 1

6. Gabriel Moreno
44. Orelvis Martinez
89. Kevin Smith (wow)
99. Jordan Groshans

25. Austin Martin

I may not be against having Smith and Espinal split 3B and Biggio get 2B. See what you have in these guys and if you still need a 3B, maybe the cost for Ramirez is less at the deadline. Or maybe Groshans' power shows up. Maybe spend short term money on Cruz and say a 5th starter.

I think if they can find a good older free agent 3B who's willing to take a short deal then you do it. But I'm not lining up to throw 3, 4, 5, 6 years and $100m+ at someone who isn't a big time difference maker. Sorry Kris Bryant. Save that money, give Espinal the chance to show that what he did last year wasn't a fluke, and see if Biggio can get back on track at 2nd where he was already comfortable. If it doesn't work then you move to address it.

I'd also obviously come off this stance if, say, Carlos Correa knocked on the Jays' door willing to take a competitive offer and play some 3rd. But I'm not holding my breath. He likely wants to be a shortstop and I don't know if we're at the point yet where the Jays can really start pressuring Bichette to move off of short.

 

[Hoverhand]

Top 100 MLB prospects 2022: Keith Law's rankings, with Orioles' Adley Rutschman at No. 1

6. Gabriel Moreno
44. Orelvis Martinez
89. Kevin Smith (wow)
99. Jordan Groshans

25. Austin Martin

I may not be against having Smith and Espinal split 3B and Biggio get 2B. See what you have in these guys and if you still need a 3B, maybe the cost for Ramirez is less at the deadline. Or maybe Groshans' power shows up. Maybe spend short term money on Cruz and say a 5th starter.

I think they have to pick their poison with one of Bryant, Ramirez, or Chapman. If the lockout ends and the season starts almost immediately after with a shortened spring, Bryant will need to act fast and if the A's want to get the most bang for their buck on this sell off, they will too. I'm willing to bet one of the three won't cost an egregious overpay.

You're taking increased risks running with Biggio, Espinal, and Smith. If they miss the playoffs two years in a row because of dropped games in April and May, the media is going to eat them alive.

 

[ACC1224]

Just picked up tickets to the Jays in Lakeland Florida, March 17. Was surprised how easy it was to get tickets. We’re pretty excited. Split Squad game so not expecting many regulars to make the trip though.

 

[phillipmike]

I think if they can find a good older free agent 3B who's willing to take a short deal then you do it. But I'm not lining up to throw 3, 4, 5, 6 years and $100m+ at someone who isn't a big time difference maker. Sorry Kris Bryant. Save that money, give Espinal the chance to show that what he did last year wasn't a fluke, and see if Biggio can get back on track at 2nd where he was already comfortable. If it doesn't work then you move to address it.

I'd also obviously come off this stance if, say, Carlos Correa knocked on the Jays' door willing to take a competitive offer and play some 3rd. But I'm not holding my breath. He likely wants to be a shortstop and I don't know if we're at the point yet where the Jays can really start pressuring Bichette to move off of short.

I agree with this though I looked at the free agent list at 3B and it’s basically Bryant. Next best players are Villar, Josh Harrison, Jed Lowrie, Brad Miller and Travis Shaw. I rather Smith, Espinal and Groshans possibly get at bats before we sign those guys.

Once Seager retired, there is no short term starting 3B on the free agent market.

And there isn’t much of anything on the trade market especially if Cleveland doesn’t trade Ramirez. It’s basically Chapman unless a long term 3B becomes available. So if the Jays aren’t getting Chapman, I’m not against giving Smith and Espinal some at bats at 3B until the deadline.

 

[kb]

Just picked up tickets to the Jays in Lakeland Florida, March 17. Was surprised how easy it was to get tickets. We’re pretty excited. Split Squad game so not expecting many regulars to make the trip though.

Not many are rushing to buy tickets in a lockout that shows no signs of ending anytime soon I would imagine.

 

[phillipmike]

I think they have to pick their poison with one of Bryant, Ramirez, or Chapman. If the lockout ends and the season starts almost immediately after with a shortened spring, Bryant will need to act fast and if the A's want to get the most bang for their buck on this sell off, they will too. I'm willing to bet one of the three won't cost an egregious overpay.

You're taking increased risks running with Biggio, Espinal, and Smith. If they miss the playoffs two years in a row because of dropped games in April and May, the media is going to eat them alive.

I agree but if the playoffs expand, they can easily get in if everyone stays relatively healthy.

The strategy isn’t to do nothing. It’s see what you have in your young talent at 3B to assess at the deadline and address other areas like DH, 5th rotation spot and the pen now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I don't see them going into the season with Smith as the backup 3rd baseman. I'm not saying they have to get a starter. I'm fine with Espinal, but they need another competent MLB 3rd baseman that'd you be ok with starting if Espinal struggles or he or Biggio get injured. Ideally they get a high end option short term, but I think you have to bring in a 3rd baseman that is potentially capable of starting if you need them to regardless.

 

[Ale Brew]

If they don’t swing big on Ramirez or Chapman, I like Josh Harrison as a low cost vet. He can play 2b, 3b, or even corner OF in a pinch.

You can then play the hot hands between him, Escobar, and Biggio. Should be affordable on a short term deal too.

 

[Garlando]

I liked the idea of Josh Harrison being a cheap target earlier in the offseason but I do think his skillset is pretty similar to what they already have in Santiago Espinal. Harrison is a roughly average player (wRC+ of 107 and 103 the last two years along with slightly above-average defense at a couple of positions). He's a right-handed bat who makes plenty of contact (13.4% strikeout rate supported by an above-average 82.8% contact rate) but doesn't walk a ton (5.6% walk rate supported by a 7th percentile chase rate). He doesn't hit for much power either as he managed just 8 HRs across 558 PAs last year while landing in the 16th percentile in both average exit velocity and barrels. Ultimately he was worth 105 fWAR last year. That skillset is awfully similar to Espinal, except Espinal has less power upside (84.8 AVG exit velocity and 1.2% barrel/PA rate are both bottom-15 in baseball) but better defense.

I think the better compliment to Espinal would be Brad Miller who is a lefty bat, capable of playing a number of different positions (probably a bit below-average defensively but is capable as a former SS) but has some intriguing power. He's posted ISO's of .200+ each of the last 3 years and is coming off of a year in which he finished in the 91st percentile in terms of average exit velocity, and 80th percentile in barrels. xStats liked his year as well, as he posted an xBA of .247 and xSLG of .460. That along with above-average walk rate (11.8%) and chase rate that finished in the 71st percentile point to a guy who can be a strong contributor at the plate. Although he finished with just an average 105 wRC+ last year, he could really be a sneaky good cheap value if used in a platoon role alongside someone like Espinal.

In 2021, Miller posted a .244/.354/.488 batting line against right-handed pitching with 16 HRs, good for a quality 123 wRC+. Alternatively, he was terrible against lefties managing just a 30 wRC+ against them. This is where Espinal comes in, although he's not a guy who struggled against righties (above-average 112 wRC+ against RHP), he was highly impressive against left-handed pitching posting a .348/.394/.402 batting line against while managing a 120 wRC+. I think they could form a quality cheap platoon while giving the infield personnel flexibility in their roles on the team.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If we signed a marginal option I'm not looking at it as a split with them an Espinal for 3rd but more a 3 ways split with them, Espinal and Biggio for 2nd and 3rd(with Biggio playing 2nd if he's playing so the acquired guy has to be able to play 3rd). With Espinal a slap righty and Cavan a lefty with some weaker power with a good eye then I'm not going to be too picky about if they guy we get hits left or right. We are right handed heavy so 2 lefties in there at 2nd and 3rd wouldn't be a bad thing, but the guy we bring in will likely be taking time from Espinal and Biggio so I wouldn't be too picky about them being too similar to Espinal. The opposite profile will be just as similar to Biggio. It's only really an issue if Biggio goes back to his rookie self and Espinal drops off a bit then you're platooning 2 guys who are similar which doesn't really work.

 

[BigBlu]

We burned plenty of prospect capital already by dealing SWR and Martin. Whatever you thing of that deal (and it's looking quite good to me), we should really tap whatever resources/assets we have left in that pipeline for the remaining value. The grass isn't always greener with external marginal options. Especially if you haven't run your prospect to his completion to know what you might really have. We all remember Michael Young. You simply can't deal/ignore all your (CHEAP!!!) potential for marginal (MORE PRICEY) upgrades. Patience remains a guiding virtue and can pay off in spades for years. If Guerrero, Bichette, Springer, Hernandez, Gausman, Berrios can't keep us in the hunt until the Allstar Break, then who's to say Josh Harrison or Brad Miller pushes us over the edge!? Let the kids play!

 

[djdev]

We burned plenty of prospect capital already by dealing SWR and Martin. Whatever you thing of that deal (and it's looking quite good to me), we should really tap whatever resources/assets we have left in that pipeline for the remaining value. The grass isn't always greener with external marginal options. Especially if you haven't run your prospect to his completion to know what you might really have. We all remember Michael Young. You simply can't deal/ignore all your (CHEAP!!!) potential for marginal (MORE PRICEY) upgrades. Patience remains a guiding virtue and can pay off in spades for years. If Guerrero, Bichette, Springer, Hernandez, Gausman, Berrios can't keep us in the hunt until the Allstar Break, then who's to say Josh Harrison or Brad Miller pushes us over the edge!? Let the kids play!

while i agree to an extent, there are different circumstances this time as opposed to say 2015. that team was on its last legs and very veteran laden. the core players on this team are all in their 20s outside of springer who is 32. if you can get PROVEN mlb players that fit the timeline aka ramirez et al you should, but ye im all about the go big in a trade or just use money to sign lesser players at this point. at this point anyone is on the table for me outside of moreno(with maybe a few others i would prefer not to trade) for the RIGHT deal.

 

[BlueForever75]

A competent 3B or 2B needs to be signed or traded for prior to start of season. You cannot subtract Semien from this lineup and expect it to be as potent as it was.

I dont care what position they fill as long as it filled with someone that is better than what is already on our roster. The other position not filled can be filled by a Biggio/Espinal\Smith platoon.

After that, we need to replace Matz in rotation depth and sign one more electric arm for bullpen.

 

[Scion]

I think if they can find a good older free agent 3B who's willing to take a short deal then you do it. But I'm not lining up to throw 3, 4, 5, 6 years and $100m+ at someone who isn't a big time difference maker. Sorry Kris Bryant. Save that money, give Espinal the chance to show that what he did last year wasn't a fluke, and see if Biggio can get back on track at 2nd where he was already comfortable. If it doesn't work then you move to address it.

I'd also obviously come off this stance if, say, Carlos Correa knocked on the Jays' door willing to take a competitive offer and play some 3rd. But I'm not holding my breath. He likely wants to be a shortstop and I don't know if we're at the point yet where the Jays can really start pressuring Bichette to move off of short.

A team that has contending aspirations cannot go into next season with Biggio and Espinal as everyday players in the infield. There is too much risk that one or both provide replacement level value next season which tanks the Jays offense. I think you have to trade for a credible starting 3B because as you said the available FA 3b don't make sense financially. If both Biggio and Espinal provide everyday value (in addition to trading for a 3B) then you have a stronger team and additional assets to trade to bolster the team elsewhere.

 

[Scion]

A competent 3B or 2B needs to be signed or traded for prior to start of season. You cannot subtract Semien from this lineup and expect it to be as potent as it was.

I dont care what position they fill as long as it filled with someone that is better than what is already on our roster. The other position not filled can be filled by a Biggio/Espinal\Smith platoon.

After that, we need to replace Matz in rotation depth and sign one more electric arm for bullpen.

I agree, there are too many question marks with the trio of Espinal/Biggio/Smith. I like each of them individually, but I'm not tying my ship to the hope that 2/3 of them are viable starting infielders.

 

[Discoverer]

I agree, there are too many question marks with the trio of Espinal/Biggio/Smith. I like each of them individually, but I'm not tying my ship to the hope that 2/3 of them are viable starting infielders.

Yeah, even if you like all three of those guys, there's also the issue of depth. If you go with Espinal/Biggio/Smith in the majors then the best options for injury fill-ins (let alone one of those relatively high-risk players) at that point would likely be some minor-league free agent until maybe someone like Groshans is ready. I don't know about everyone else, but I really don't want to see more Joe Panik.

Acquire a solid 3B and suddenly you have the new guy at 3B, Biggio at 2B, Espinal filling in all over the place, and Smith starting the year as depth in AAA. That strikes me as a really good situation with high-ceiling players, versatility, and plenty of depth.

 

[Ale Brew]

One thing to consider is that the starting pitching is MUCH better on paper to start this year than it was last season.

Manoah came up mid season and made a huge impact. Berrios only joined at the deadline, and Gausman effectively replaces Ray. Ryu is the question mark as he really fell off in the 2nd half.

Ideally they make a splash and bring in a big bat, preferably at 3b. I’d also like to see a depth starter and another back end of the pen arm (have a feeling Jansen winds up in TO).

That said, they could theoretically compete as is.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Kenley Jansen would be great. Then we could just switch to calling Danny Jackson full time

 

[dredeye]

Yeah, even if you like all three of those guys, there's also the issue of depth. If you go with Espinal/Biggio/Smith in the majors then the best options for injury fill-ins (let alone one of those relatively high-risk players) at that point would likely be some minor-league free agent until maybe someone like Groshans is ready. I don't know about everyone else, but I really don't want to see more Joe Panik.

Acquire a solid 3B and suddenly you have the new guy at 3B, Biggio at 2B, Espinal filling in all over the place, and Smith starting the year as depth in AAA. That strikes me as a really good situation with high-ceiling players, versatility, and plenty of depth.

We also have Otto Lopez on the 40 man.

 

[phillipmike]

Blue Jays 19th In Baseball America's 2022 Farm System Rankings

2. Rays
4. O's
11. Red Sox
13. Yankees
19. Jays

I gladly take our prospect lists over the Yankees or Boston. I may even like our top end talent more than the O's.

Moreno Leads 3 Blue Jays on Baseball America's 2022 Top 100 Prospects List

No. 7 C Gabriel Moreno

No. 62 P Nate Pearson

No. 75 INF Orelvis Martinez

 

[phillipmike]

The Lockout Projected ZiPS Standings: American League Edition

1 GB of the division lead - Yankees, and 2 GBs of the AL lead. I’ll take that.

Houston - 91 wins
Yankees - 90 wins
Jays - 89 wins

 

[djdev]

the crazy thing is if ryu has a season more like his first in toronto we are already laughing. lets just hope the last half of the season last year isnt who he is now

 

[Discoverer]

We also have Otto Lopez on the 40 man.

It's weird that I always forget about him since I really like him as a future utility guy.