Observations on the situation both sides are in right now

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by littleHossa, Feb 2, 2005.

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  1. littleHossa

    littleHossa Registered User

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    I had all of the possible scenarios go in my head and decided to write them, they're as complete as they come and the future can look bright, first point.

    This is what being able to save the season accomplishes:

    Saves a few fans from leaving hockey forever - both sides should be happy with that.

    Brings in some money to the players and playoff revenues - biggest reason for the players to continue negociations and owners should have a slight interest into it as well, because of bigger chance to make money than lose money.

    Owners and players insecure about future jobs - both sides have passable interests to know what lies ahead of a cancelled season, so it's much better to return to the status quo, just some games lost.

    Biggest factor in all of this - money the players should lose coupled with jobs players should lose for those not making any money. (4th liners etc)

    What a cancelled season brings:
    Big losses for both players and owners in term of money. Loss of interest in the sport for future money.

    The consequences of a lost season would be that since BOTH sides have lost a lot, we will be back to square 1 where both sides just stand on their demands with no effort. The owners benefit the most right now from delaying the cancellation, because right now the players have the pressure put on them to try to make money this year.

    So far it doesn't look that way, players are not aware of losing a lot of money this season, season is lost and it's back to the same old, no talks or nothing. Hence what the owners hate to see happening, and the reason why they want this season saved.


    What does a 2nd season of no NHL mean?

    Players
    it means the same thing as this one. This time not money but jobs will be the topic. As the February 2006 deadline will come close, players will scramble to try to get a deal because of insecurities related to their jobs, and fight for that. Just like season #1 players scrambled to save a few paychecks.

    Owners
    They have a lot of options, season #2 will be the season that the owners can really show why they are the ones in charge. If no effort is made, the players will sit out then repeat the same scenario that is being played for the past 40 days.

    What can the owners do? Scabs, scabs, scabs. the issue will be job security and the owners can EXPLOIT that fear players have in season #2, bring in scabs, not threats, that's why they will show why they have the power. They can wait, do nothing or bring the players to their knees. With scabs, success to the owner's side is almost guaranteed, but they will have to fight for a year straight, starting today.

    So what do the owners need to do RIGHT NOW? They need to bring the future to the players today. This means that the second cancelling the season is being talked, owners threaten and better start working on bringing in scabs, it starts now, next meeting, not January 2006.


    Possible NHL Scenarios
    - Compromise(unlikely) is being reached with a salary cap to save season.
    - Players win season #1, owners get taken to school in season #2 because of innactivity.
    - Players win season #1, owners start eventually talking scabs and players eventually crumble, "new era NHL"
    - Owners aggressively talk scabs, the result depend if
    Players are smart, season is saved/season #2 starts in October.
    Players are not smart, but guaranteed defeat and season #2 starts. Old NHL management can still save their jobs.

    Take note that the word "compromise" will last be used at the end of this season, it will all depend on the owners, "their destiny is in their own hands" like sport analysts say, next season will be a complete repeat of this one in term of activity from the NHLPA unless owners exploit the new major issue - jobs.
     
    Last edited: Feb 2, 2005
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