O'Brien Division semi-finals: #2 Johnstown Jets vs. #3 Toledo Walleye
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VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Johnstown Keys to Victory:
Speed - the top 6 has some of the fastest forwards in this draft with Sanderson, O'Neill, Nedved and Straka. When combined with the puck possession skills of the top 6, it's going to be hard to shut down. Johnson on the PP adds some more speed on the wing there as well.
Team Chemistry - Sanderson and Cassels have an established reputation for playing well together. They were one of the most legendary lines in Hartford Whalers history. Of course, Straka and Nedved are noted teammates at various times including with the Czech national team.
Goaltending - While a much criticized pick, if there's any place that Bryzgalov really shines it's in the playoffs and big games. He holds the record for consecutive playoff shutouts and has a strong international record with the Russian team backstopping them to the 2009 World Championships gold. Meloche is more then an adequate backup in his own right, backstopping the Minnesota North Stars to victory over the Montreal Canadiens in the 1979-80 season effectively ending their dynasty run. He'd one up that the next season taking the North Stars the whole way to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Speed - the top 6 has some of the fastest forwards in this draft with Sanderson, O'Neill, Nedved and Straka. When combined with the puck possession skills of the top 6, it's going to be hard to shut down. Johnson on the PP adds some more speed on the wing there as well.
Team Chemistry - Sanderson and Cassels have an established reputation for playing well together. They were one of the most legendary lines in Hartford Whalers history. Of course, Straka and Nedved are noted teammates at various times including with the Czech national team.
Goaltending - While a much criticized pick, if there's any place that Bryzgalov really shines it's in the playoffs and big games. He holds the record for consecutive playoff shutouts and has a strong international record with the Russian team backstopping them to the 2009 World Championships gold. Meloche is more then an adequate backup in his own right, backstopping the Minnesota North Stars to victory over the Montreal Canadiens in the 1979-80 season effectively ending their dynasty run. He'd one up that the next season taking the North Stars the whole way to the Stanley Cup Finals.
That's not that hard
They only played together on the national team once, in 1996.
This should be a close series; edges aren't immediately jumping out at me.
To start off, a big part of Toledo's plan is team defence. Toledo augments its defenceman with strong defensive presences on every line. This helps negate the matchup game without home ice. Johnstown's first line will be easier to shut down with Tucker on it; his offensive contributions will be negligible.
To start off, a big part of Toledo's plan is team defence. Toledo augments its defenceman with strong defensive presences on every line. This helps negate the matchup game without home ice. Johnstown's first line will be easier to shut down with Tucker on it; his offensive contributions will be negligible.
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seventieslord
Student Of The Game
If we're taking the average of what the players showed throughout their careers, I contend that O'Neill is average at best.
tony d
Registered User
Time for me to chip in with my thoughts on this series:
1st Line: Our 1st line consists of Petr Nedved, Martin Straka and Darcy Tucker. Nedved is the offensive star of our team. Say all you will about his attitude, his numbers speak for themselves. 717 points is great for a player at this level. Nedved was our #1 pick for a reason.
At centre we have Martin Straka whose numbers aren't as flashy as Nedved's but he still had solid career numbers. As Dave said these 2 have speed to burn and should be hard to stop.
Darcy Tucker is not going to put up big numbers but he'll score if he has to. Tucker will provide a lot of grit for our 1st line and should be the glue that holds the line together.
For our opponents:
Reading up on Nick Mickoski I see that he played here in Newfoundland for a while so that's cool to see. Looking at Mickoski I see that he had solid numbers in the minors, in the NHL he was a half a point a game player, not what you want on your 1st line especially going against 2 of the more prolific scorers in this league in Nedved and Straka.
Thomas Gradin is a player I always liked so stellar pick there, still I see that he was a bit of an enigma as he projected to be a superstar in the NHL and was at best a lower tier star.
Bud Poile looks to be a good find and he's a fine choice for your assistant captain. Really can't say anything negative about him.
The 1st line advantage goes to us.
2nd Line:
Geoff Sanderson is a guy I gave serious credence to selecting in the MLD. Just a solid scorer. A 6-time 30 goal scorer including 3 times in the percieved dead puck era.
Andrew Cassels is perhaps one of the best pure playmakers in this league, 9 seasons of 40 assists is great. Yes being on one of the top lines in Hartford history may not say much but it's still a fact and something that should benefit us.
Jeff O'neill caps what I call the Hartford Whalers line. O'neill may not be as prolific as Sanderson or Cassels but in a league where elite right wingers aren't prevalent, O'neil is among the top ones available.
For our opponents
Patrik Sundstrom was a guy I've always liked. Still I have to question why he retired at age 30 when he was still a solid contributor to the Devils team.
Tim Young is another guy who was a solid contributor but in my opinion retired to early. Still a good pick.
Scott Young is someone that myself and Dave probably would have picked had you not gotten him. As I said this league was devoid of elite right wingers, Young was probably one of the better among them so solid pick.
It's closer but because of the Sanderson/Cassels chemistry i give the 2nd line advantage to us.
3rd line:
Christian Ruutu, much like Patrik Sundstrom retired to early. Still Ruutu was a good 2-way player and should be a good fit on our 3rd line.
Mark Johnson, a 2-time 30 goal scorer in the NHL was a renowned member of Team USA that won gold at the 1980 Olympics.
Admittedly Eddie Wares was drafted by us to fill era requirements. Still reading up on him he was a guy who played both forward and defense. A good find for our team.
For our opponents:
Johan Franzen is a great pick for you guys. 3 straight playoffs with more than a point a game. When it comes to 3rd line players at this level Franzen is your guy.
Terry Crisp is good if you wish to go for defense. He is a shut down guy but the question is if he can keep up with guys like Nedved and Straka over the course of a seres?
Pentii Lund is somewhat of a pioneer, perhaps 1 of the first international-born players to win a NHL award. Other than that he seemed to be an average NHLer.
Advantage: Johnstown
4th Line:
Dave Reid was not drafted to score goals but rather to kill penalties which he did a lot in the NHL, Reid was also a prolific shorthanded goal scorer which could become handy for us in a long series.
Radek Bonk, when drafted to the NHL in 1994, was supposed to be the next big scorer in the NHL. That never happened. What happened though was Bonk developed into a solid 2nd line centre for the Sens, here with the Jets we have him for our 4th line so the pressure won’t be on him so much.
Wayne Presley caps off our 4th line, he was another player I liked growing up. He should perform well with Reid and Bonk on our 4th line.
For our opponents:
Greg Adams was 1 of 2 Greg Adams to play in the NHL. I always liked Adams but I think he is at a loss on your team especially this line with Yelle and Burrows.
Stephane Yelle is a good to great defensive forward, still the question is how does he mesh with Greg Adams, his left winger here, who was a good scorer during his time.
Alex Burrows is going to be good in the NHL but picking him in the AAA draft is a mistake, there where better options available including a couple of undrafted names myself and Dave thought about picking.
Advantage: Johnstown
Now to The Defense
Our first defensive pairing consists of Anders Eldebrink and Keith Brown.
Eldebrink is one of the better offensive defenseman in this draft. A former player of the year in Sweden is a good find for our defense.
Keith Brown is a fellow Newfoundlander that Dave mentioned to me. Brown may be the best player to come out of this province so picking him was heartfelt for me. Still Brown was a good player and according to
Legends of Hockey and I quote: Brown was a solid player in all phases of the game and a die-hard competitor.
For our opponents:
Nikolai Makarov may be best known as Sergei’s older brother but he was also a solid scorer during his time in Russia, I think he matches up against Eldebrink here but Eldebrink was visibly better.
Al Dewsbury was considered a giant during his time in the NHL. Still that was in the 40’s. My question is how does he match up with guys like Straka, Nedved, Sanderson and Cassels?
Advantage: Johnstown
Our 2nd defensive pairing consists of Tom Kurvers and Dana Murzyn
Both guys were targeted early by me and Dave. Kurvers, is more or less our #1 power play quarterback. The 3-time 50 point scorer surprised me with his point totals. Of course he’s not as good as Scott Niedermayer but he’s still a solid player.
Dana Murzyn is there simply for defense. He was just a minus player just once in a 14 year career. He was also considered a key cog on the defense of the 1989 Stanley Cup champs.
For our opponents:
Pavel Kubina, to me, is one of the most under-rated defensemen in the NHL right now. He consistently puts up good offensive numbers. Yes he has shoddy plus minus numbers but I owe that more to the teams he has played on more than anything he, himself, has done.
Tom Bladon is another good defenseman. I mentioned him to both Arcand in the MLD and Dave in the AAA to look at for picking. Really good 2nd defensive pairing option.
Advantage: Slightly Toledo
3rd Defensive Pairing:
Hal Laycoe was another guy we drafted to fill an era requirement but it turned out he was a justifiable pick. A person who helped every defense he ever played on should be a fit for us on the 3rd defensive pairing.
It surprised me to see Grant Ledyard last this long. Figured he’d go late in the MLD not late in the AAA, he was a good pick and should really do good for us on our 3rd defensive pairing.
For our opponents:
Pat Quinn was also a defenseman which people often forget because of his stellar coaching career. Interesting to see he may have been the player that caused Orr’s ultimate downfall. Still a good pick for your team.
Howie Young looks to me to be a bruiser which is good in a sense but still do you want him costing you a game because of a costly penalty?
Advantage: Johnstown
Goalies:
Ilya Bryzgalov was panned by a few people, my question is why. Bryz was one of the better goalies available, someone often cited as being among the top goalies in the NHL right now (A list which includes all previously drafted players in the ATD, MLD and AAA)
Gilles Meloche is a person that me and Dave were both surprised and glad lasted so long. Should Bryzgalov falter, and he probably won’t, but if he does then Meloche can step in and win a few games for us.
For our opponents:
Bert Lindsay’s G.A.A. concerns me. While he may have been talented, I don’t think his career G.A.A. being so high will help him against a team like ours with so much offensive skill.
Rollie Melanson was a goalie that had some early success but other than that was an average NHL goalie even for this level.
Advantage: Johnstown
Coaching:
Bill Dineen, to me, was 1 of the best coaches available here. A coach in the top 3 hockey leagues of all time (NHL, WHA, AHL) and a 4-time winner of their league trophies. Also in his entire coaching career he finished below. 500 3 times which is impressive when you consider he coached for a long time.
Ernie Mclean is our opponent's coach. He had good success but never coached in the NHL, he never went further than a jr.league that could hurt him here where many of the players are professionals.
Advantage: Johnstown
Final Thoughts: We wish a good series to our opponents. I like our team a lot better here but still expecting a good series.
1st Line: Our 1st line consists of Petr Nedved, Martin Straka and Darcy Tucker. Nedved is the offensive star of our team. Say all you will about his attitude, his numbers speak for themselves. 717 points is great for a player at this level. Nedved was our #1 pick for a reason.
At centre we have Martin Straka whose numbers aren't as flashy as Nedved's but he still had solid career numbers. As Dave said these 2 have speed to burn and should be hard to stop.
Darcy Tucker is not going to put up big numbers but he'll score if he has to. Tucker will provide a lot of grit for our 1st line and should be the glue that holds the line together.
For our opponents:
Reading up on Nick Mickoski I see that he played here in Newfoundland for a while so that's cool to see. Looking at Mickoski I see that he had solid numbers in the minors, in the NHL he was a half a point a game player, not what you want on your 1st line especially going against 2 of the more prolific scorers in this league in Nedved and Straka.
Thomas Gradin is a player I always liked so stellar pick there, still I see that he was a bit of an enigma as he projected to be a superstar in the NHL and was at best a lower tier star.
Bud Poile looks to be a good find and he's a fine choice for your assistant captain. Really can't say anything negative about him.
The 1st line advantage goes to us.
2nd Line:
Geoff Sanderson is a guy I gave serious credence to selecting in the MLD. Just a solid scorer. A 6-time 30 goal scorer including 3 times in the percieved dead puck era.
Andrew Cassels is perhaps one of the best pure playmakers in this league, 9 seasons of 40 assists is great. Yes being on one of the top lines in Hartford history may not say much but it's still a fact and something that should benefit us.
Jeff O'neill caps what I call the Hartford Whalers line. O'neill may not be as prolific as Sanderson or Cassels but in a league where elite right wingers aren't prevalent, O'neil is among the top ones available.
For our opponents
Patrik Sundstrom was a guy I've always liked. Still I have to question why he retired at age 30 when he was still a solid contributor to the Devils team.
Tim Young is another guy who was a solid contributor but in my opinion retired to early. Still a good pick.
Scott Young is someone that myself and Dave probably would have picked had you not gotten him. As I said this league was devoid of elite right wingers, Young was probably one of the better among them so solid pick.
It's closer but because of the Sanderson/Cassels chemistry i give the 2nd line advantage to us.
3rd line:
Christian Ruutu, much like Patrik Sundstrom retired to early. Still Ruutu was a good 2-way player and should be a good fit on our 3rd line.
Mark Johnson, a 2-time 30 goal scorer in the NHL was a renowned member of Team USA that won gold at the 1980 Olympics.
Admittedly Eddie Wares was drafted by us to fill era requirements. Still reading up on him he was a guy who played both forward and defense. A good find for our team.
For our opponents:
Johan Franzen is a great pick for you guys. 3 straight playoffs with more than a point a game. When it comes to 3rd line players at this level Franzen is your guy.
Terry Crisp is good if you wish to go for defense. He is a shut down guy but the question is if he can keep up with guys like Nedved and Straka over the course of a seres?
Pentii Lund is somewhat of a pioneer, perhaps 1 of the first international-born players to win a NHL award. Other than that he seemed to be an average NHLer.
Advantage: Johnstown
4th Line:
Dave Reid was not drafted to score goals but rather to kill penalties which he did a lot in the NHL, Reid was also a prolific shorthanded goal scorer which could become handy for us in a long series.
Radek Bonk, when drafted to the NHL in 1994, was supposed to be the next big scorer in the NHL. That never happened. What happened though was Bonk developed into a solid 2nd line centre for the Sens, here with the Jets we have him for our 4th line so the pressure won’t be on him so much.
Wayne Presley caps off our 4th line, he was another player I liked growing up. He should perform well with Reid and Bonk on our 4th line.
For our opponents:
Greg Adams was 1 of 2 Greg Adams to play in the NHL. I always liked Adams but I think he is at a loss on your team especially this line with Yelle and Burrows.
Stephane Yelle is a good to great defensive forward, still the question is how does he mesh with Greg Adams, his left winger here, who was a good scorer during his time.
Alex Burrows is going to be good in the NHL but picking him in the AAA draft is a mistake, there where better options available including a couple of undrafted names myself and Dave thought about picking.
Advantage: Johnstown
Now to The Defense
Our first defensive pairing consists of Anders Eldebrink and Keith Brown.
Eldebrink is one of the better offensive defenseman in this draft. A former player of the year in Sweden is a good find for our defense.
Keith Brown is a fellow Newfoundlander that Dave mentioned to me. Brown may be the best player to come out of this province so picking him was heartfelt for me. Still Brown was a good player and according to
Legends of Hockey and I quote: Brown was a solid player in all phases of the game and a die-hard competitor.
For our opponents:
Nikolai Makarov may be best known as Sergei’s older brother but he was also a solid scorer during his time in Russia, I think he matches up against Eldebrink here but Eldebrink was visibly better.
Al Dewsbury was considered a giant during his time in the NHL. Still that was in the 40’s. My question is how does he match up with guys like Straka, Nedved, Sanderson and Cassels?
Advantage: Johnstown
Our 2nd defensive pairing consists of Tom Kurvers and Dana Murzyn
Both guys were targeted early by me and Dave. Kurvers, is more or less our #1 power play quarterback. The 3-time 50 point scorer surprised me with his point totals. Of course he’s not as good as Scott Niedermayer but he’s still a solid player.
Dana Murzyn is there simply for defense. He was just a minus player just once in a 14 year career. He was also considered a key cog on the defense of the 1989 Stanley Cup champs.
For our opponents:
Pavel Kubina, to me, is one of the most under-rated defensemen in the NHL right now. He consistently puts up good offensive numbers. Yes he has shoddy plus minus numbers but I owe that more to the teams he has played on more than anything he, himself, has done.
Tom Bladon is another good defenseman. I mentioned him to both Arcand in the MLD and Dave in the AAA to look at for picking. Really good 2nd defensive pairing option.
Advantage: Slightly Toledo
3rd Defensive Pairing:
Hal Laycoe was another guy we drafted to fill an era requirement but it turned out he was a justifiable pick. A person who helped every defense he ever played on should be a fit for us on the 3rd defensive pairing.
It surprised me to see Grant Ledyard last this long. Figured he’d go late in the MLD not late in the AAA, he was a good pick and should really do good for us on our 3rd defensive pairing.
For our opponents:
Pat Quinn was also a defenseman which people often forget because of his stellar coaching career. Interesting to see he may have been the player that caused Orr’s ultimate downfall. Still a good pick for your team.
Howie Young looks to me to be a bruiser which is good in a sense but still do you want him costing you a game because of a costly penalty?
Advantage: Johnstown
Goalies:
Ilya Bryzgalov was panned by a few people, my question is why. Bryz was one of the better goalies available, someone often cited as being among the top goalies in the NHL right now (A list which includes all previously drafted players in the ATD, MLD and AAA)
Gilles Meloche is a person that me and Dave were both surprised and glad lasted so long. Should Bryzgalov falter, and he probably won’t, but if he does then Meloche can step in and win a few games for us.
For our opponents:
Bert Lindsay’s G.A.A. concerns me. While he may have been talented, I don’t think his career G.A.A. being so high will help him against a team like ours with so much offensive skill.
Rollie Melanson was a goalie that had some early success but other than that was an average NHL goalie even for this level.
Advantage: Johnstown
Coaching:
Bill Dineen, to me, was 1 of the best coaches available here. A coach in the top 3 hockey leagues of all time (NHL, WHA, AHL) and a 4-time winner of their league trophies. Also in his entire coaching career he finished below. 500 3 times which is impressive when you consider he coached for a long time.
Ernie Mclean is our opponent's coach. He had good success but never coached in the NHL, he never went further than a jr.league that could hurt him here where many of the players are professionals.
Advantage: Johnstown
Final Thoughts: We wish a good series to our opponents. I like our team a lot better here but still expecting a good series.
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TheDevilMadeMe
Registered User
It's all about relativity. He was 11th, 13th, 13th, 13th in goals. Compare this to Nedved who was 12th, 21st, 28th, 30th in goals.
30 wasn't an uncommon retirement age in 1990; and he still played, but in the Swedish 2nd league, where he was working on getting them back to the Elitserien.
He did it at a time when 30 goals meant nothing. In comparsion, when Burrows hit 35 in 2010, he was 10th in the league. When Johnson did it in 84, he was 40th.
If speedy players weren't a problem when Crisp played, they won't be now.
An average NHler capable of shutting down Maurice Richard
Burrows isn't great, but he did at least have a top-10 finish in goals. Additionally, Burrows kills penalties well and led the league in short handed goals. He's now a spare forward, so it will have little impact on the series.
If you were big when you played, you'd be big in the ATD (height relativity). I don't know how he matched up exactly, but I don't see anything that stats he was slow. He was aggressive with a large frame, so he'll probably be pretty physical with them. He's probably better than Brown, and definitely is offensively.
Also, I'd say being 5th amongst defencemen in Soviet League scoring history is a tad more than "solid"
It depends with Young; if he's drinking heavily, which would be when he's most likely to do something stupid, we'd probably sit him for Kearns. However, if he's sober (which Toledo would make efforts to ensure he was), he won't be as costly
Lindsay played on bad teams, hence his GAA is high. Additionally, the GAA looks high now, but in comparison to career GAA of contemporaries, it's not bad.
In the NHA:
1910: Leader 3.4/Lindsay 2nd with 4.5
1911: Had the worst GAA, leader 3.9/Lindsay 6.3
In the PCHA
1912: Leader: 5.1/Lindsay 5.6
1913: Lindsay led with 3.7
1914: Lindsay led with 4.5
1915: Lindsay had a bad season with 6.8 in comparison to the leader's 4.2, but he was still selected to a two game PCHA All-Star team.
An older Lindsay in the NHA wasn't great, but he was 35 in 1915.
Emile Francis is not our coach; Ernie McLean is. He never got a chance at the NHL (quite possibly because of his facial scaring), but he was a tremendous junior coach.
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Comparison of top-line forwards highest scoring finishes:
Nedved: 13th, 26th, 31st
Straka: 4th, 11th, 35th
Tucker: 58th, 76th, 153rd
Mickoski: 16th, 21st, 23rd
Gradin: 21st, 32rd, 33rd
Poile: 6th, 11th, 27th
Nedved: 13th, 26th, 31st
Straka: 4th, 11th, 35th
Tucker: 58th, 76th, 153rd
Mickoski: 16th, 21st, 23rd
Gradin: 21st, 32rd, 33rd
Poile: 6th, 11th, 27th
tony d
Registered User
Emile Francis is not our coach; Ernie McLean is. He never got a chance at the NHL (quite possibly because of his facial scaring), but he was a tremendous junior coach.[/QUOTE]
My mistake, I have to go out now for a few hours but when I come back I'll make the changes.
My mistake, I have to go out now for a few hours but when I come back I'll make the changes.
This is crucial IMO. For the sake of avoiding petty arguments, based on these numbers we could call Poile and Straka basically a wash, and Nedved and Mickoski fairly similar too. Tucker however just drags that line down completely. He's a (slightly) better player than Burrows, but we're using Burr as a spare, not anywhere near the top-6, let alone on the first line.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Tucker compares MUCH better to Mickoski and Gradin then those numbers would lead you to believe. In terms of where they finished on the league leaderboard in scoring they're better, but the finishes don't show the whole picture there by any means. For a better picture you need to take a look at the adjusted points per game.
Three strongest seasons per player in that regard: (adjusted points/games played, adjusted points-per-game)
Bud Poile: 1947-48 (76/56, 1.31), 1948-49 (64/60, 1.067), 1949-50 (52/66, .788)
Thomas Gradin: 1982-83 (70/80, .875), 1981-82 (63/76, .829), 1983-84 (61/75, .813)
Nick Mickoski: 1954-55 (58/70, .829), 1955-56 (52/70, .743), 1950-51 (46/64, .719)
vs
Martin Straka: 2000-01 (102/82, 1.244) 1998-99 (94/80, 1.175), 2006-07 (71/77, .922)
Petr Nedved: 1995-96 (95/80, 1.1875), 2000-01 (84/79, 1.063), 1996-97 (73/74, .986)
Darcy Tucker: 2001-02 (68/77, .883), 2005-06 (60/74, .810) 1999-2000 (56/77, .727)
also worth noting on Straka the 1999-2000, and 2005-06 seasons were over .9 Adjusted PPG. Nedved has two more seasons over .95 Adjusted PPG as well: 1998-99 and 1999-2000.
Aside from Poile having the strongest single season, the first line matchup from a statistical standpoint is advantage Johnstown. I know games aren't played on paper, but that's why the chemistry between Straka and Nedved plays into effect here for the Jets.
Three strongest seasons per player in that regard: (adjusted points/games played, adjusted points-per-game)
Bud Poile: 1947-48 (76/56, 1.31), 1948-49 (64/60, 1.067), 1949-50 (52/66, .788)
Thomas Gradin: 1982-83 (70/80, .875), 1981-82 (63/76, .829), 1983-84 (61/75, .813)
Nick Mickoski: 1954-55 (58/70, .829), 1955-56 (52/70, .743), 1950-51 (46/64, .719)
vs
Martin Straka: 2000-01 (102/82, 1.244) 1998-99 (94/80, 1.175), 2006-07 (71/77, .922)
Petr Nedved: 1995-96 (95/80, 1.1875), 2000-01 (84/79, 1.063), 1996-97 (73/74, .986)
Darcy Tucker: 2001-02 (68/77, .883), 2005-06 (60/74, .810) 1999-2000 (56/77, .727)
also worth noting on Straka the 1999-2000, and 2005-06 seasons were over .9 Adjusted PPG. Nedved has two more seasons over .95 Adjusted PPG as well: 1998-99 and 1999-2000.
Aside from Poile having the strongest single season, the first line matchup from a statistical standpoint is advantage Johnstown. I know games aren't played on paper, but that's why the chemistry between Straka and Nedved plays into effect here for the Jets.
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seventieslord
Student Of The Game
With the seasons ranging from 50 to 84 games long during the careers of these players, it's already a bad comparison.
Also, comparing adjusted points for players from different league sizes doesn't work. They are semi-reliable post-expansion, pretty bad in the O6 era (though comparable with eachother at least) and brutal before the war.
These stats don't tell us much.
Also, Tucker was usually the 3rd-best player on his line.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Oh I won't disagree with that. Though no pre-war season was used in this comparison. It's an imperfect tool but couldn't it also be argued that comparing scoring finishes in a 6 team league would likely have significantly different results then judging scoring finishes in a much larger league? Double edged sword there, with one list of statistics pointing in Toledo's direction and the other pointing in Johnstown's.
Disagree, especially in as far as comparing Tucker with Gradin is concerned. Don't get me wrong, I'm not arguing that Tucker is better then Gradin. But I most definitely am arguing that he's not nearly the liability that he's being made out to be here. He's not here for his scoring, he's here to create havoc and open up space for Nedved and Straka to work. And let's face it, Tomas Holmstrom wasn't exactly an option in this draft.
No different then he will be here.
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I don't see why league size should matter. It wasn't easier to score in a 6 team league.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
I get what you're saying, and I realize it works that way. That's why I champion the "percentage" method most often when comparing out of era (in particular, eras with much different league sizes) - but at the AAA level, since we are rarely drafting the true catalysts now, the linemate context really needs to be looked at closer.
As for the season length, adjusted points per adjusted game would have made more sense. just take GP/scheduled games*82. this would "fix" guys like Poile and Mickoski.
Your statistics made him out to be as good as Gradin. That's simply not the case.
It does make a difference. all things being equal, do you want a guy who scored 60 points a year while being the 3rd-best player on a line with linemates who scored 70 each? Or a guy who scored 60 points a year with lesser linemates who scored 50 each? They're not apples and apples.
So the comparison with Gradin is likely more one-sided than it looks, not less. At least offensively.
it matters for rankings because a player in a smaller league can have a pretty piss-poor percentage of the leader's points and still rank fairly high. top-5 guys are pretty much the same year by year, but it gets trickier to compare after that.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
Unless my math is off (and it easily could be) my 3rd # is my adjusted points per game. I took the adjusted points, divided them over games played. That was the number I was using to base the strongest individual seasons off of. In a more simplistic look this is the top 10 individual seasons from my list in terms of points-per-game:
Poile 47-48 (1.31)
Straka 00-01 (1.244)
Straka 98-99 (1.175)
Nedved 95-96 (1.1875)
Poile 48-49 (1.067)
Nedved 00-01 (1.063)
Nedved 96-97 (.986)
Straka 06-07 (.922)
Tucker 01-02 (.883)
Gradin 82-83 (.875)
I'll work out the percentages that you recommended later on today.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
DaveG
Noted Jerk
and here's the first line % vs league leaders (or second place where Howe, Gretzky and Lemieux need to be factored in) in best 3 seasons:
Poile:
46-47: 50% of leader
47-48: 88.5% of leader
48-49: 61.76% of leader
also was 50% in 49-50
Mickoski:
50-51: 53% of 2nd
53-54: 52.2% of 2nd
54-55: 57.3% of leader
Gradin:
81-82: 58.5% of 2nd (Bossy)
82-83: 69.35% of 2nd (Stastny)
83-84: 61.9% of 2nd (Coffey)
Nedved:
95-96: 66.4% of 2nd (Jagr)
96-97: 65.1% of 2nd (Selanne)
00-01: 66.1% of leader
Straka:
98-99: 65.35% of leader (77.6% of 2nd)
00-01: 80.5% of leader
05-06: 60.8% of leader
(Straka had 2 more seasons over 50%)
Tucker:
99-00: 53.125% of leader
01-02: 61.5% of leader
05-06: 48.8% of leader
so the best seasons there are:
Poile 47-48
Straka 00-01
Gradin 82-83
Nedved 95-96
Nedved 00-01
Straka 98-99
Nedved 96-97
Gradin 83-84
Poile 48-49
Tucker 01-02
Mickoski's best season comes in at #13 on this list.
Poile:
46-47: 50% of leader
47-48: 88.5% of leader
48-49: 61.76% of leader
also was 50% in 49-50
Mickoski:
50-51: 53% of 2nd
53-54: 52.2% of 2nd
54-55: 57.3% of leader
Gradin:
81-82: 58.5% of 2nd (Bossy)
82-83: 69.35% of 2nd (Stastny)
83-84: 61.9% of 2nd (Coffey)
Nedved:
95-96: 66.4% of 2nd (Jagr)
96-97: 65.1% of 2nd (Selanne)
00-01: 66.1% of leader
Straka:
98-99: 65.35% of leader (77.6% of 2nd)
00-01: 80.5% of leader
05-06: 60.8% of leader
(Straka had 2 more seasons over 50%)
Tucker:
99-00: 53.125% of leader
01-02: 61.5% of leader
05-06: 48.8% of leader
so the best seasons there are:
Poile 47-48
Straka 00-01
Gradin 82-83
Nedved 95-96
Nedved 00-01
Straka 98-99
Nedved 96-97
Gradin 83-84
Poile 48-49
Tucker 01-02
Mickoski's best season comes in at #13 on this list.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
I guess I should have been more clear. Adjusted points per actual game is not apples to apples. In a 60-game season, there are 80 adjusted games being used to calculate the adjusted points that you're using, but then you still divided by actual games.
DaveG
Noted Jerk
So, you're telling me my math in fact IS off. There's a reason I didn't end up majoring in this stuff.
will re-calculate tonight
VanIslander
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