Proposal: NYR - CAR

[bernmeister]

Hayes at half + Zuc + Georgiev
for
Fox's rights + McKeown + conditional 1st, only kicks in if Hayes signs with CAR + small cap dump

Jordan Staal is out
still expect Hayes to do like Chapman - Yankees and return to NYR.
Yes, it is 2 expiring contracts, but there is no conditional onus on Canes if Fox does not sign w/NY.

If Fox does not come back and sign after school this year AND get to burn a year off his elc by playing one game, he may well walk.
This is decent value, and if Carolina falls, they can flip both reduced Hayes + Zuc at the deadline.

Click to read more...

 

[bfaust30]

No way from Rangers. Rangers will get more from each of them.

 

[QJL]

So Hayes and Zucc and Georgiev for Fox and McKeown?

Hayes is not resigning in Carolina. He’s a picky camper and I expect will want to be in a big market long term.

Fox is a flight risk wherever he lands at this point, even in New York.

If the Rangers trade those 3 players they should get the following: Two 1sts + top prospect for Hayes + a decent prospect for Zucc + a 2nd for Geo.

This offer is not close.

 

[Starat327]

Wait.. is Bern undervaluing NY assets? This cant... I gotta be drunk.

That said - Carolina doesnt even remotelt touch this unless the first is protected (i see what you did there), because the Metro is an absolute shitshow this year.

 

[FoxysExpensiveNYDigs]

Really bad for the Rangers. Criminal even.

 

[One Winged Angel]

So Hayes and Zucc and Georgiev for Fox and McKeown?

Hayes is not resigning in Carolina. He’s a picky camper and I expect will want to be in a big market long term.

Fox is a flight risk wherever he lands at this point, even in New York.

If the Rangers trade those 3 players they should get the following: Two 1sts + top prospect for Hayes + a decent prospect for Zucc + a 2nd for Geo.

This offer is not close.

I have no problem with the rest of the post, but how do you or anyone of us, for that matter, know that Hayes is a "picky camper" and where he would or would not re-sign, obvious cellar dwellers aside? Carolina wouldn't be one, adding a Kevin Hayes.

 

[GoldiFox]

Terrible, terrible offer for the Canes. Zero interest in rentals.

The Canes don’t need two rentals for their current bottom-5 talent team. They will tank, collect a good draft pick, and try again next year. Fox is the only significant appealing piece in this trade for Carolina as he is the only long-term piece.

Trade your rentals to a team that is competing.

 

[bernmeister]

No way from Rangers. Rangers will get more from each of them.

Yes, but sometimes you have to adjust for specific factors if you want their benefit.

All clubs are not =, esp as to player perception of desirability.
CAR is quality, and their money, assuming it is made available, is as good as anybody else's. However, any prospect RD recognizes the immediate logjam there today.
So if I'm Fox, I demand as condition of me signing that 1 yr elc burn from Canes, which being budget concerned, may think twice, or may figure he has more value to sell his rights now and let acquiring club deal with that negotiation instead of passing it on.
Fox doesn't have the same concerns w/NY, who have openings at RD.
And we can work out something else to his satisfaction and benefit instead. We can say look, play ball, give us 2-3 yrs elc, let us trim some of our older vet salaries, prove to us you are all that and a bag of chips, and in return, instead of standard bridge or interim RFA, we can go straight into a long term 7or8 yr deal fo mo $ which we can then swing.

But to enjoy that result, you have to commit to obtaining Fox, not an alternate who has his own sets of +/-s.

The key here is to expect Hayes to return at 5-6 yrs at mutually good #.
for NY Hayes is truly a rental.

As for Canes, that is either price to pay to acquire rental to stopgap and bolster for this season, or like I said, if CAR goes bust, THEY can flip Hayes at the deadline and recover what was paid, ditto for Zuc.

Hayes was previously an overly expensive splurge for Canes, but now w/JStaal out and totality of above factors, it makes sense. Zuc was not a fit either but now does in this deal.

McKeown and Georgiev are kind of optional, arguably NY needs RDs and CAR still recovering from Darling.

 

[bernmeister]

Wait.. is Bern undervaluing NY assets? This cant... I gotta be drunk.

That said - Carolina doesnt even remotelt touch this unless the first is protected (i see what you did there), because the Metro is an absolute ****show this year.

"is Bern undervaluing NY assets?"
It is typical HF for EVERYBODY to not discount their assets, because being honest, who wants to take less [an exception to the rule strategic consideration aside]. I am just too polite to usually call others hypocrites for accusing that from me when most are often no less guilty.

One key here is Fox; how good IS he?
We won't know until after he gets here and has a chance to show, but if you want to speculate then this is where we go.
That said, a signed Fox is way more valuable to Canes, and may not require moving, but for reasons identified, Fox is extremely low % to now change his mind and give you his autograph on a contract.


"That said - Carolina doesnt even remotelt touch this unless the first is protected (i see what you did there), because the Metro is an absolute ****show this year."
I disagree.
You have to pay for what you are acquiring, which is useful production from 2 guys, and VERY IMPORTANT, this is not a deadline deal. If you implode, Hayes at half and Zuc will fetch ample compensation.
So no, with an asterisk.

Although I stand by what I just said and do not believe Canes would be entitled as part of original deal for this to be lottery protected, I would be willing to consider some level of protection in exchange for additional swag. How much swag that is depends on to what degree the pick is protected.

Let us also remember that pick only applies if Fox does not sign w/Rangers. If he does you retain that pick.

Again, Canes can take their chances and not do any deal w/anybody regarding Fox, but that is another whole order of risk.

 

[bernmeister]

Terrible, terrible offer for the Canes. Zero interest in rentals.

The Canes don’t need two rentals for their current bottom-5 talent team. They will tank, collect a good draft pick, and try again next year. Fox is the only significant appealing piece in this trade for Carolina as he is the only long-term piece.

Trade your rentals to a team that is competing.

Your roster is not entirely devoid of talent, although in goal is nothing to brag about. Translation: A fast turnaround is possible.

That said, you overlook what I said about flipping these 2 vets at the deadline to the highest bidder. Going prices suggest a 1st and/or highly regarded prospects.

If you want the slow boat, then yes, you can hang on to your 1st, and take your chances with the lottery. Odds are not likely you get as lucky as you were last year moving up to 2OA. Sure, if you had high enough confidence in a draft order ranking, and it was certain to be sufficiently worthwhile, I'd agree with you. Lose for Hughes, best case scenario. But with the lottery there is no guarantee, only speculation based on prospective expectations.

There is a +/- is each scenario.
Thanks for feedback.

 

[JohnnyApps]

What about just Zuc for a first and jake bean

 

[Lays]

Hayes at half + Zuc + Georgiev
for
Fox's rights + McKeown + conditional 1st, only kicks in if Hayes signs with CAR + small cap dump

Jordan Staal is out
still expect Hayes to do like Chapman - Yankees and return to NYR.
Yes, it is 2 expiring contracts, but there is no conditional onus on Canes if Fox does not sign w/NY.

If Fox does not come back and sign after school this year AND get to burn a year off his elc by playing one game, he may well walk.
This is decent value, and if Carolina falls, they can flip both reduced Hayes + Zuc at the deadline.

Yeah I’d rather just have the 2 1sts+ we can get by trading Hayes and Zucc separately...
We already have 2 similar dmen to Fox in Deangelo and Pionk anyway, awful for the Rangers

 

[Shootertooter]

I have no problem with the rest of the post, but how do you or anyone of us, for that matter, know that Hayes is a "picky camper" and where he would or would not re-sign, obvious cellar dwellers aside? Carolina wouldn't be one, adding a Kevin Hayes.

Chicago is a pretty big market that Hayes didn't sign in. Just sayin.
It was all about depth for him. I would think Carolina would be a great place for him to consider re signing.
He would slot in as their 2nd/3rd C and they have some really good young players. In a few years they will be really good.

That said.......packaging both Hayes and Zucc. to CAR. is a negative for a couple of reasons.....
First and foremost, they likely draw a better return in separate deals.
Second, I don't think any team would trade for both due to their UFA status and any prospect of a big pay day next contract.
Next, I think you undervalued the return on this one.
Lastly, Carolina is a bottom 10 team in the league, they would have no business making this trade for impending UFA's....they are not making the playoffs. From that standpoint, this proposal makes little sense.

However Berns........this is the first proposal you have made that I didn't shred your train of thought. Good job on that.
Seriously.

 

[Shootertooter]

Yeah I’d rather just have the 2 1sts+ we can get by trading Hayes and Zucc separately...
We already have 2 similar dmen to Fox in Deangelo and Pionk anyway, awful for the Rangers

I think McKeown might be the diamond in the rough here.

 

[bernmeister]

Yeah I’d rather just have the 2 1sts+ we can get by trading Hayes and Zucc separately...
We already have 2 similar dmen to Fox in Deangelo and Pionk anyway, awful for the Rangers

Your comment depends on the bold.
If true, you are correct.
On the other hand, if Fox has more upside, my premise is sound.

 

[bernmeister]

What about just Zuc for a first and jake bean

Zuc will be looking for a home next yr and could be anywhere depending on what he shows is left in the tank and what $ he wants. That said, unless Canes do complete 180, he would be flipped. Don't see CAR giving up better 1st for just late 1st from better contender, let alone adding Bean, assuming your idea he is available.
It is dif w/Fox b'c there is a real risk he does not sign in CAR.

 

[GoldiFox]

Your roster is not entirely devoid of talent, although in goal is nothing to brag about. Translation: A fast turnaround is possible.

That said, you overlook what I said about flipping these 2 vets at the deadline to the highest bidder. Going prices suggest a 1st and/or highly regarded prospects.

If you want the slow boat, then yes, you can hang on to your 1st, and take your chances with the lottery. Odds are not likely you get as lucky as you were last year moving up to 2OA. Sure, if you had high enough confidence in a draft order ranking, and it was certain to be sufficiently worthwhile, I'd agree with you. Lose for Hughes, best case scenario. But with the lottery there is no guarantee, only speculation based on prospective expectations.

There is a +/- is each scenario.
Thanks for feedback.

So the Canes trade a player that is leading the NCAA in ppg as a defenseman for the potential opportunity to flip two assets for late 1sts at the deadline. No thanks. Canes are one of the last teams in the league that should be looking at acquiring rentals.

I think the Canes will happily take the “slow boat” and just keep their top prospects and top-10 picks, thanks though.

 

[bernmeister]

....

Chicago is a pretty big market that Hayes didn't sign in. Just sayin.
It was all about depth for him.
True dat.
But we think he likes it here in NY, even enuf to let us pimp him out.

I would think Carolina would be a great place for him to consider re signing.
He would slot in as their 2nd/3rd C and they have some really good young players. In a few years they will be really good.
If for some unfathomable reason GMJG jerks him around w/lowball, is not grateful, shows disrespect, I could see things changing. IF that happens, I agree the situation could change in a hurry and Canes could be a very, very good fit.

That said.......packaging both Hayes and Zucc. to CAR. is a negative for a couple of reasons.....
Fraser Crane sticks his head in to say "I'm listening..."

First and foremost, they likely draw a better return in separate deals.
That is a fair point for discussion.
While the adage where there is smoke, there is fire, is not 111% always true, it is true enough often enuf. Therefore I am inclined to suspect for now there is something to the Fox hype.
Translation: prefer to have the possibly immediate (season's end) RD bauble Fox than a likely later 1st, who going best player available, may not be as immediately useful to address our need to upgrade RDs.

Second, I don't think any team would trade for both due to their UFA status and any prospect of a big pay day next contract.
Hayes is likely not available long term, but secondarily they are buying the chance to get dibs if things change and he is. Primarily, they are buying the option to flip him to highest bidder at the deadline. That's why this deal needs to go down now. Zuc similar but I see others paying more for his services next season.

Next, I think you undervalued the return on this one.
Would prefer to gamble on Fox now vs possibly higher benefit of more assets later. Would agree this is beholder's preference and guesswork, not clear cut without knowing Fox and the other variables at NHL level.

Lastly, Carolina is a bottom 10 team in the league, they would have no business making this trade for impending UFA's....they are not making the playoffs. From that standpoint, this proposal makes little sense.
Agree and disagree.
IF these were rentals only, then yes, Canes should not go there.
However, overlooked is option to flip both vets to highest bidder at the deadline for significant return after enjoying production and inside peek at both until then. The UFA status is immaterial, irrelevant, if Canes do not do 180 and need for cup push, then likely scenario is both are rentals and their UFA status comes w/territory for acquiring club. Canes get theirs at the deadline.

However Berns........this is the first proposal you have made that I didn't shred your train of thought. Good job on that.
Seriously.
And so it has come to pass
The lion and the lamb are, at least on this occasion, if not mutually copacetic, at least snark free.
Must be the approaching magic of Christmas.

 

[bernmeister]

So the Canes trade a player that is leading the NCAA in ppg as a defenseman for the potential opportunity to flip two assets for late 1sts at the deadline. No thanks. Canes are one of the last teams in the league that should be looking at acquiring rentals.

I think the Canes will happily take the “slow boat” and just keep their top prospects and top-10 picks, thanks though.

Fair enough you prefer you blue chip vs 2 1sts-ish +.
Just remember, you are banking on Fox playing ball and accommodating you.
He has [I think] Harvard to fall back on.
If he really wants to, he can ultimately force you to accept his decision to ultimately go back into the draft.

And his price to avoid that we think is AT LEAST burning an elc year.

That maybe your better option but let's not overlook what I said.

 

[bernmeister]

I think McKeown might be the diamond in the rough here.

Agree
Have been trying to get him for over a year now.

Shout out to @Ola for initially putting him on my radar.

I could see he stays if they move Faulk [possible] or Pesce [less likely].

 

[GoldiFox]

Fair enough you prefer you blue chip vs 2 1sts-ish +.
Just remember, you are banking on Fox playing ball and accommodating you.
He has [I think] Harvard to fall back on.
If he really wants to, he can ultimately force you to accept his decision to ultimately go back into the draft.

And his price to avoid that we think is AT LEAST burning an elc year.

That maybe your better option but let's not overlook what I said.

I don’t think you understand the Fox situation well. He would not re-enter the Draft, he would become a “college UFA” during the lockout year.

Canes will offer to accelerate his ELC 2 years beyond what any other team can offer. If he doesn’t accept that then they will look to move him this offseason. The Canes will have a year to explore options while he destroys the NCAA. Currently all signs point to him signing.

What the Canes definitely won’t do is trade Fox before he can even tell them “No”. At least not for two rentals who might be worth a 1st or a 2nd each.

 

[haveandare]

Would love to have Fox and would hate to move Zucc and Hayes in the same deal. I'd pass on this but would be open to making a nice offer for Fox if he's willing to sign in NY.

 

[bernmeister]

I don’t think you understand the Fox situation well. He would not re-enter the Draft, he would become a “college UFA” during the lockout year.

Canes will offer to accelerate his ELC 2 years beyond what any other team can offer. If he doesn’t accept that then they will look to move him this offseason. The Canes will have a year to explore options while he destroys the NCAA. Currently all signs point to him signing.

What the Canes definitely won’t do is trade Fox before he can even tell them “No”. At least not for two rentals who might be worth a 1st or a 2nd each.

thanks for the update
you advise team is willing to actually burn not one, but TWO elc years?
wow.

Also, "become a “college UFA” during the lockout year" is further to my premise.
And is it certain there will be a lockout, and not a new CBA?

Finally, this assumes your generous 2 yrs off elc is still enuf to woo Fox. He holds all the cards.
If he later says to the effect I only want to play
on the west coast
east coast
in Canada
in USA
or any specific limiting factor, then...

then all of a sudden the market for him crashes to a handful of suitors.

Of course, you may be right, 2 elc years may be enough to sway him.

Not saying it is one way or the other at this point, just it is a fluid situation, each scenario w/it's own +/-s.

We'll see.

 

[GoldiFox]

thanks for the update
you advise team is willing to actually burn not one, but TWO elc years?
wow.

Also, "become a “college UFA” during the lockout year" is further to my premise.
And is it certain there will be a lockout, and not a new CBA?

Finally, this assumes your generous 2 yrs off elc is still enuf to woo Fox. He holds all the cards.
If he later says to the effect I only want to play
on the west coast
east coast
in Canada
in USA
or any specific limiting factor, then...

then all of a sudden the market for him crashes to a handful of suitors.

Of course, you may be right, 2 elc years may be enough to sway him.

Not saying it is one way or the other at this point, just it is a fluid situation, each scenario w/it's own +/-s.

We'll see.

It’s the same as McAvoy. Canes will burn one ELC year at the end of this year and Fox plays next year which = 2 years. Taking the UFA route he starts playing in 2020-2021 which coincides with the potential lockout year.

Just because Fox “might” do something doesn’t mean the Canes should react. Fox was a key addition to the Calgary deal for a reason. All they have to go on is the data in front of them. Fox did not want to play in Western Canada for Calgary. All indications thus far have pointed towards Fox being happy with Carolina. Fox’s primary concern is playing next year so the Canes need to make a spot for him.

 

[RodTheBawd]

Sorry bern, as others have mentioned, we're not in a position to take on rentals. It's too much risk on both sides, and I'd much rather hold onto McKeown (who I think should be playing over TVR and Fleury at this point) and Fox than hope whatever we'd get back from shipping Hayes and Zuc back out are equitable assets (unlikely).