Nyquist's Next Contract

detredWINgs

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The guy is in for a huge raise but I've heard very little talk about it on this board or in the press (shocker there :sarcasm:). Curious to hear other people's thoughts.

At first I thought it might be hard to find a comparable for Nyquist, but TJ Oshie is actually a solid comparison, sans the number of NHL games played and health. He signed a 5 year deal worth $4.175M at the age of 25/26 after putting up 54 points in 80 games. At that time, he had put up 175 points in 262 regular season games - good for .668 points per game. The cap the year his contract went into effect was $70.2M.

Nyquist is 25 and will be 26 when his new contract goes into effect. He has 103 points in 154 regular season games - good for .669 points per game. Bettman's office seems to be the only entity that is bullish on next year's salary cap ($73M estimate) while others are suggesting the cap may not rise much above the $69M we have now. Ergo, the $70.2M cap that Oshie signed under could be very close to the magic number this upcoming year.

Obviously, this isn't a perfect comparison as no two players are exactly alike on the ice, let alone comparable contract-wise when you take into account health history, experience, age, personality, salary cap, team expectations, etc, but its a starting point.

Depending on how you see Nyquist, some other comparables could be Marchand, Hornqvist, Henrique, purely from a points/contract-timing standpoint, and others I'm too lazy to evaluate.

In terms of price, I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of $4.5M. It would be highway robbery to land him for anything under $4M but I'm not sure I'd buy into a deal that gave him $5M or more as of today. Depends on how he finished out the season and his showing in the playoffs.

As for term, I'd say you can't sign him for anything less than 4 and would go as much as the 8 we're allowed if the price was right. Think 6 years would be my preferred number though.
 

The Zetterberg Era

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I would do 8 years and 40 million without batting an eye if he would.

I am guessing he wants it broken into two significant paydays. So 5 years at 4.5 million probably isn't bad. Anything under 5.5 million and I will be happy, I think we come out winners on this deal regardless.

Absolutely wonderful would be Patches contract in Montreal. Six years at 27 million, it could set Tatar's next contract too, though the cap world does change these. It is always hard to say what the raise is in terms of this.

I do think we want to avoid a nasty RFA scenario, not sure if Nyquist is eligible for arbitration, but that would be very contentious. He and his agent could rightfully push for a fairly large settlement and the Wings would come in with a very low number more than likely. Some feelings could get hurt if we get into that process.

I see Nyquist as a core piece, so really I am okay with anything ranging from 4 to 8 years, hopefully we keep the price down to some degree as Tatar is looking at a similar contract coming out of his three year deal. So if it gets extremely expensive we might be in trouble there depending on what the cap does.
 

Zetterberg4Captain

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five years and 25 million is likely what its going to take

not sure i would invest more time then that just yet as we have a # of other young guys who will or could very well also earn themselves big contracts during Nyquists time
-tatar
-sheahan
-dekeyser
-mrazek
-oullete
-mantha
-larkin

of course not all at once but i would imagine in the next 4-6 years the vast majority of these players will all be earning at minimum 4 million a season
 

The Zetterberg Era

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five years and 25 million is likely what its going to take

not sure i would invest more time then that just yet as we have a # of other young guys who will or could very well also earn themselves big contracts during Nyquists time
-tatar
-sheahan
-dekeyser
-mrazek
-oullete
-mantha
-larkin

of course not all at once but i would imagine in the next 4-6 years the vast majority of these players will all be earning at minimum 4 million a season

Well that concern comes more in the realm of NTC and NMC in terms of not offering those. Which I would not be doing unless he is taking a shave off his value. Really given what is coming and my distaste for doing it anyway I would attempt not to do it with this group.

But that is also kind of the price of doing business with good players, so he more than likely will have some sort of modified NTC as a part of this agreement.

Still the idea that Nyquist won't be movable at 5 million a season even on a longer term is hard for me to see. Certainly could happen but I think the risk portion of that is well within range to go for a longer term without big concerns.
 

PullHard

Jul 18, 2007
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I have a hard time seeing him getting a $5M cap hit already, just because Holland tries to maintain that hierarchy as best as he can. Like back when no one could make more than Lidstrom, then Datsyuk, etc.

They might do a shorter term contract first, like 3 or 4 years, then by the time it ends Nyquist can get his big payday.

I personally have no problem with him getting his big payday on his next deal, I'm just not sure Holland would be comfortable with Nyquist making just ~$1M less than Z and potentially ~$1M more than Franzen if it settles at a $5M cap hit. Maybe one closer to $4M shorter term?

I say lock him up, we will have to see though.
 

InjuredChoker

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nyquist ppg the past two season: 0.79, goals per game: 0.43. those season are/were at age 24 and 25. seasons #3 and #4.

loui eriksson. age 23 and 24 seasons. slightly higher ppg (0.83) and slightly lower gpg (0.40).

he got 6 yr, 4.25 mil deal back then. let's say the salary cap comes in at 71 mil. eriksson deal would be the same as 5.08 mil, adjusted to 71 mil cap.

joe pavelski. was same age as nyquist. gpg was 0.34 and ppg was 0.75, both lower than nyquist. he got 4x4 mil deal, which would be little under 5 mil today.

marchand had same ppg but slightly higher gpg than pavelski. age 23 and 24 seasons. got 4 yr, 4.5 mil deal from the bruins. around the same today.

neal had similar stats but he got that in the middle of his first season with the pens when he scored over ppg and over 40 goals. he got 5.5 mil, before the cap was known.

i guess the ice times were pretty similar for all of these players but didn't check.

so, i'd guess he comes in at around 5 mil.
 

Flowah

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Are there any restrictions on years for RFA contracts? 5x5 sounds good to me.
 

detredWINgs

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Less leverage as an RFA and he would ideally want to sign his next contract at or before the age of 30.

Those statements are contradictory. If he has less leverage as an RFA then he isn't going to get to decide that he signs his next contract at the "ideal time."

If the number is right, you eat up as many of those UFA years as you can.
 

WingedWheel1987

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Those statements are contradictory. If he has less leverage as an RFA then he isn't going to get to decide that he signs his next contract at the "ideal time."

If the number is right, you eat up as many of those UFA years as you can.

He will have less leverage to command a higher salary since he isn't on the open market and restricted to negotiating with one team. I am going to ignore offer sheeting since it isn't going to happen.

Besides it would be beneficial to both parties. Lower cap hit for the Wings and Nyquist gets his retirement contract during his peak years.
 

joe89

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I think you're spot on in the OP. I think Wings will start out around 4, Nyquist's camp maybe 5.5, and then meet in the middle ~ 4.75. 4-5 year deal. However, this is the type of deal that Holland usually gets right, 4.25 wouldn't surprise me.
 

Pavels Dog

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Anywhere between 4 and 5 million and 3-6 years is fine by me. More money and/or term wouldn't be the end of the world but I'd prefer not to do some huge contract.
 

Bench

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He'll get an RFA bridge contract.

3 years at 4 million. That's fair for his production and Nyquist banks his first contract worth over $10 million dollars. After 3 years, and he's still producing ~60 points, he'll get his 8 year Wings lifetime deal at closer to $6 million.
 

joe89

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He'll get an RFA bridge contract.

3 years at 4 million. That's fair for his production and Nyquist banks his first contract worth over $10 million dollars. After 3 years, and he's still producing ~60 points, he'll get his 8 year Wings lifetime deal at closer to $6 million.

Not sure if I wanna give him 8 years at that point, when he's already 29(around the time he's realistically peaking). I rather give him six years now and keep him until he's 32, assure all the good years at a reasonable price. After that, we may or may not walk away.
 

Bench

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Not sure if I wanna give him 8 years at that point, when he's already 29(around the time he's realistically peaking). I rather give him six years now and keep him until he's 32, assure all the good years at a reasonable price. After that, we may or may not walk away.

I get what you're saying about the contracts, that's always possible. Depends what Nyquist wants, of course.

But assuming nothing happens to Nyquist's career, I can't imagine the Wings walking away. He's a custom fit for their organization.
 

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