Norris Trophy 22/23 - A revisit

[kcunac]

So far the only comparative defensive stats in this thread have been GA 5v5. It would be interesting to see more, for those with time and a candidate in mind.

 

[avsfan9]

Looking forward to the same absurd anti-Karlsson arguments in the thread.

It’s not absurd anti-karlsson arguments. People are debating why others deserve nominations for the award. Nothing more to it than that. Karlsson is a fantastic player having a great season but there is more to the Norris than just points. If he wins he deserves it but other players can be in the discussion as well.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Im thinking it’s a 3 way race between Karlsson (points factor) and then Makar and Hughes.

If Josi won the Norris last year, then I would think 100% it’s Karlsson’s to win it. However, the Norris should be the best overall defenseman, and Karlsson has not been that at all.

Makar if he played 10 more games would’ve been a lock for me, but who knows how him missing some time this year will affect his chances to win. I think he’s played enough games to warrant consideration for sure.

Hughes has been the most improved defenseman this year by far and would love to see him get some Norris talks. Though I think Canucks being out of the playoffs could potentially hinder things.

Dahlin and Morrissey have fallen off hard and I don’t think they’re in the race anymore. Especially Dahlin falling back to career averages and genuinely playing like a liability for Buffalo.

 

[Signupnow]

Makar on sharks would have 30 points.

 

[Golden_Jet]

This is true but being double digits in the +/- department doesn't help the case for EK either.

Team is a -16 on empty net goals, in which EK is likely on the ice.

https://morehockeystats.com/teams/en

 

[wetcoast]

Team is a -16 on empty net goals, in which EK is likely on the ice.

https://morehockeystats.com/teams/en

Sure an other top Dmen are never on the ice trying to tie the game right?

The Norris if for best all around Dman and EK while being extremely impressive on offense isn't as impressive in the all around category.

He might get lucky with Dahlin playing through an injury and Makar missing time but there are still other better all around Dmen in the league this year IMO.

I really think too many people here let fantasy hockey leagues cloud their judgment on actual NHL play and this is a general comment not directed specifically at you.

Makar on sharks would have 30 points.

This tells us what you know about hockey and nothing more.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Sure an other top Dmen are never on the ice trying to tie the game right?

The Norris if for best all around Dman and EK while being extremely impressive on offense isn't as impressive in the all around category.

He might get lucky with Dahlin playing through an injury and Makar missing time but there are still other better all around Dmen in the league this year IMO.

I really think too many people here let fantasy hockey leagues cloud their judgment on actual NHL play and this is a general comment not directed specifically at you.


This tells us what you know about hockey and nothing more.

That’s why I posted the link . So you can see the differences, between teams.

 

[wetcoast]

That’s why I posted the link . So you can see the differences, between teams.

That metric doesn't actually help the case for EK though does it?

I also saw that you thought my comment on Makar only getting 30 points on the sharks this year, do you actually believe this to be so if Makar was deployed the same way as EK?

 

[Golden_Jet]

That metric doesn't actually help the case for EK though does it?

Actually it does , trouble understanding that SJ allowed 20 goals with the SJ goalie pulled, as they are trying to tie game up.
Then can’t help you , sorry.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Karlsson’s Norris candidacy this year is being approached like an accomplished politician at election time.

He has a groundswell of support based on a tangible track record and performance.

Meanwhile, his opposition is trying to slander him with attacks, while giving no good case to vote for an alternative.

I hear “if only Makar played more games, he would have had more impact”. That has some validity to it. But he didn’t.

And I hear “if Vancouver was a playoff team, Hughes would be in the running”. I don’t think he scores enough, but sure, he’s been good. But not Karlsson good. And both are on the outside looking in.

As for the rest, they’re the independents. Morrissey, Dahlin, and Fox will get support from their bases, but there’s no real case for them over Karlsson, and nobody expects them to be in contention.

 

[Nocashstyle]

Obviously not a perfect stat, but Hughes being +18 on a team with a -19 goal deferential is pretty impressive.

 

[Moosemanman]

Fewer games för Makar, sure.
Still I dont understand why the metrics speaks againt EK or why Makar is so superior metricwise. Wich metrics?

(I will give you one metrics that doesn’t flatter Makar more than Ek in my eyes

On 5-5 Colorado has a goaldifference (+/-) of +18. Makar has +17 and have a few players above him. Macinnon is one.

San Jose has on the other side a shocking -41 in goaldifference 5-5. Still EK has +6 and is way before the rest of the team.
To me its really impressive as an all around metric.)

Love to see other stats to be able to compare.

 

[wetcoast]

Actually it does , trouble understanding that SJ allowed 20 goals with the SJ goalie pulled, as they are trying to tie game up.
Then can’t help you , sorry.

So with what some consider the lock for the Norris this year on the ice they give up the most goals when pulling the goalie must have nothing to do with EK playing an all out offensive role with less attention to defense than other Norris candidates.

 

[Golden_Jet]

So with what some consider the lock for the Norris this year on the ice they give up the most goals when pulling the goalie must have nothing to do with EK playing an all out offensive role with less attention to defense than other Norris candidates.

It means you get a lot of minuses when goalie is pulled, you know what an empty net is I assume.
Weird had to point that out lol.

 

[wetcoast]

It means you get a lot of minuses when goalie is pulled, you know what an empty net is I assume.
Weird had to point that out lol.

No what's weird is how so many people voting for EK as their Norris winner just don't want to talk about defending.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Fewer games för Makar, sure.
Still I dont understand why the metrics speaks againt EK or why Makar is so superior metricwise. Wich metrics?

(I will give you one metrics that doesn’t flatter Makar more than Ek in my eyes

On 5-5 Colorado has a goaldifference (+/-) of +18. Makar has +17 and have a few players above him. Macinnon is one.

San Jose has on the other side a shocking -41 in goaldifference 5-5. Still EK has +6 and is way before the rest of the team.
To me its really impressive as an all around metric.)

Love to see other stats to be able to compare.

A few other stats if you’re looking for comparisons:

Karlsson:
CF%: 54.34
GF%: 51.76
XGF%: 54.73
Athletics Game valve score: 4.0 (23rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 99/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 15/100

Makar:
CF%: 56.29
GF%: 59.77
XGF%: 56.46
Athletics Game Value score: 5.5 (3rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 91/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 95/100

 

[psycat]

A few other stats if you’re looking for comparisons:

Karlsson:
CF%: 54.34
GF%: 51.76
XGF%: 54.73
Athletics Game valve score: 4.0 (23rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 99/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 15/100

Makar:
CF%: 56.29
GF%: 59.77
XGF%: 56.46
Athletics Game Value score: 5.5 (3rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 91/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 95/100

I am actually curious what are these "Athletics score" things and what are they based on?

 

[avsfan9]

I am actually curious what are these "Athletics score" things and what are they based on?

It just says Karlsson sucks defensively. It’s the kind of stats voters look at when deciding who they will vote for , not just looking at point totals.

 

[Golden_Jet]

A few other stats if you’re looking for comparisons:

Karlsson:
CF%: 54.34
GF%: 51.76
XGF%: 54.73
Athletics Game valve score: 4.0 (23rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 99/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 15/100

Makar:
CF%: 56.29
GF%: 59.77
XGF%: 56.46
Athletics Game Value score: 5.5 (3rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 91/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 95/100

Where do I find the player score cards on athletic site, have a link?
I searched on athletic for player cards can’t find it, thanks
Edit: Found it

 

[psycat]

It just says Karlsson sucks defensively. It’s the kind of stats voters look at when deciding who they will vote for , not just looking at point totals.

Didn't ask you and the answer is not informative, I suppose you don't know but in that case not much reason to answer.

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Karlsson is a lock.

 

[Golden_Jet]

A few other stats if you’re looking for comparisons:

Karlsson:
CF%: 54.34
GF%: 51.76
XGF%: 54.73
Athletics Game valve score: 4.0 (23rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 99/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 15/100

Makar:
CF%: 56.29
GF%: 59.77
XGF%: 56.46
Athletics Game Value score: 5.5 (3rd in NHL)
Athletics offensive ranking: 91/100
Athletics defensive ranking: 95/100

So Makar doesn’t have 5.5 GSV it’s 3.8 as of the latest card, 5.5 is his projected if he plays 82 games. We know that’s not happening.
That’s where Doms model is bad, and people don’t know how to read it.
Look at MacKinnon last update on card says has 88 points, with projected to be 123, he not taking into account the missed games. It’s more like 100 points.
Same with the GSV.

If you look at the actual card
Makar 3.8 GSV currently , not the projected # on games he won’t play.
Karlsson is 3.7 currently.

So if using cards , use the actual column to date ( column to the left of projected) not some fictional numbers that will be impossible to achieve for those players (Projected),

 

[PatrikBerglund]

Karlsson is a tire fire defensively, it would be a bit of a sham if he won the Norris juts because he scores a bunch of points

You just proved that you NEVER even watch him play.

 

[zzs06]

So Makar doesn’t have 5.5 GSV it’s 3.8 as of the latest card, 5.5 is his projected if he plays 82 games. We know that’s not happening.
That’s where Doms model is bad, and people don’t know how to read it.
Look at MacKinnon last update on card says has 88 points, with projected to be 123, he not taking into account the missed games. It’s more like 100 points.
Same with the GSV.

If you look at the actual card
Makar 3.8 GSV currently , not the projected # on games he won’t play.
Karlsson is 3.7 currently.

So if using cards , use the actual column to date ( column to the left of projected) not some fictional numbers that will be impossible to achieve for those players (Projected),

So Makar still has a higher GSV while playing quite a few less games.
If Makar didn’t miss as many games as he has then he absolutely wins the Norris again this year. As it is the finalists should be Karlson, Makar, and either Hughes or Morrisey. Dahlin had a phenomenal first half but has really fallen off. Fox has been very good but not great. Karlson has an otherworldly season on the offensive side but is below replacement level on the defensive side. It’s absolutely mind boggling that someone who is that bad on defense can win the award for the best DEFENSEMAN! Defenseman!! The award isn’t for the best offensive player who happens to play defenseman. Makar is hands down the best defenseman in the game. If he doesn’t win this year because he missed too many games I can accept that but people need to look at it honestly. Would the Rangers trade Fox for EK right now for the playoffs? Would the Sabres trade Dahlin for EK? Makar for EK? Heiskenen for EK? Hughes for EK? None of them would make that trade because EK would make them worse overall. He can produce with the very best of them but he gives most of it back on the other side.

 

[majormajor]

How do we evaluate Heiskanen's season?