GDT: Non-Panthers NFL Discussion part 3: Meet the new season, same as the old season?

[AhosDatsyukian]

Also, just like excited Jets fans imagined at the beginning of the year. Mecole Hardman with the Super Bowl winning TD.

Pretty sure Hardman gave an interview preseason saying he'd catch the game winning SB this year. Well, he was right but not in a way he expected lol

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Welp the Pfiz and TayTay will be going on a world tour I guess

You should be more focused on recovering from your Achilles injury Aaron.

 

[MrazeksVengeance]

Thanks NFL. I WILL PROCRASTINATE LESS.

 

[Svechhammer]

Just like how i argued for the Lions coach being aggressive, I don’t know how Shanahan can look at Mahomes across the field and think a FG inside the red zone is the right move

Or how abandoning your identity when you go up 10 is the right move. Purdy is a game manager. He isn’t a game breaker.

Honestly they seemed to be more worried about proving the game manager critiques wrong than winning the game. Which is crazy, but given just how much shit the SF team and fans like to talk, I definitely enjoyed watching it all crumble for them like it did last night. They let Cam Newton get in their heads, which is kinda funny to be honest.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Brady's GOAT status was pretty much never about being the best QB. It was about going to 10 Super Bowls and winning 7. Mahomes has a long way to go to catch that. Absolutely as good of a QB and as physically gifted a QB to ever play, but he's not Brady yet in the way that even Mahomes seems to understand matters. Heck, look at who knocked Mahomes out in two of his three postseason losses. And he'll never get a chance to change that.

 

[HisIceness]

49ers fans aren't too happy with Shanahan which is understandable but the calls to fire him? I mean if they want, I'll coach that team, they won't have to worry about losing a lead in the Super Bowl lol

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Brady's GOAT status was pretty much never about being the best QB. It was about going to 10 Super Bowls and winning 7. Mahomes has a long way to go to catch that. Absolutely as good of a QB and as physically gifted a QB to ever play, but he's not Brady yet in the way that even Mahomes seems to understand matters. Heck, look at who knocked Mahomes out in two of his three postseason losses. And he'll never get a chance to change that.

In most people's minds sure, but it's an absolutely absurd argument in a sport with 22 starters and even more guys who rotate in throughout the game too. h2h is 100% irrelevant, this isn't boxing or tennis where they're going up against each other, they're never even on the field at the same time. Mahomes is a classy, humble guy unlike Brady so of course he's gonna say the right things on that stage but I'm sure he knows he's the best ever. Brady has longevity (for now), that's it. Mahomes' peak has far surpassed Brady's.

49ers fans aren't too happy with Shanahan which is understandable but the calls to fire him? I mean if they want, I'll coach that team, they won't have to worry about losing a lead in the Super Bowl lol

I'd gladly take Shanahan as HC of the Panthers, would much rather be choking away Super Bowls than having every single November and December game be irrelevant because we're already out of the playoff picture!

 

[A Star is Burns]

In most people's minds sure, but it's an absolutely absurd argument in a sport with 22 starters and even more guys who rotate in throughout the game too. h2h is 100% irrelevant, this isn't boxing or tennis where they're going up against each other, they're never even on the field at the same time. Mahomes is a classy, humble guy unlike Brady so of course he's gonna say the right things on that stage but I'm sure he knows he's the best ever. Brady has longevity (for now), that's it. Mahomes' peak has far surpassed Brady's.


I'd gladly take Shanahan as HC of the Panthers, would much rather be choking away Super Bowls than having every single November and December game be irrelevant because we're already out of the playoff picture!

I guess it just comes down to what you think the GOAT is. As I said, Mahomes is clearly more talented. And he's not the first to be more talented. But yes, I value longevity and accomplishments in my GOAT. Mahomes isn't there yet for me. To each their own.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

I guess it just comes down to what you think the GOAT is. As I said, Mahomes is clearly more talented. And he's not the first to be more talented. But yes, I value longevity and accomplishments in my GOAT. Mahomes isn't there yet for me. To each their own.

Is Lynn Swann the GOAT WR over Jerry Rice?

 

[A Star is Burns]

Is Lynn Swann the GOAT WR over Jerry Rice?

I think that comparison is different for quite a few reasons, some very obvious. I don't really care enough to get into it. I'll still take Brady and I'm not alone. You'll still take Mahomes, and you're not alone. Seems like we're all set here.

 

[Derailed75]

Seems like fun, I'll jump in

1. Otto Graham 10 years 10 championship games 7 wins
2. TB12 won 7 Super Bowls and did it with 2 coaches on teams that were not as good before or after him.
3. Mahomes is too young to surpass the other 2 yet and also plays in a different era from Graham and different from Brady's early years. 300 yards games were an accomplishment at the start of Brady's career they are a standard now. Reid is also one of the greatest from a coaching standpoint, not that Brown and BB aren't but again Brady won without BB.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Taken from another forum but relevant:

In regards to Super Bowl Wins, in every year that Brady won, he had a Top 10 Defense in Points per Drive Allowed, and in his entire career he only had 3 seasons with a defense ranked 20th or lower in this metric:

(2002 - 20th, 2005 - 22nd, 2011 - 21st)

He had 3 more seasons lower than 10th:

(2010 - 16th, 2012 - 12th, 2022 - 12th)

This means that in 15 of his 21 seasons, Tom Brady played (Spent one season on the IR) He had the benefit of a Top 10 Defense in terms of preventing points each time the opposing offense was on the field. (If you average out every year, the average rank of his defenses is 8.6, If you average out those 15 seasons of a top 10 Defense, the average rank is 5.2)

Since 2001, the following QBs have won Super Bowls having a defense outside the Top 10 in Points per Drive Allowed:

Peyton Manning (2006-30th)
Eli Manning (2007- 15th, 2011 - 24th)
Drew Brees (2009 -15th)
Nick Foles (2017 - 14th)
Patrick Mahomes (2019 - 12th, 2022 - 21st)

Mahomes entire career so far in this metric of defensive assistance:

2018- 28th (Lost to NE in AFCCG)
2019 - 12th (Super Bowl Win)
2020 - 13th (Lost to TB in Super Bowl, utterly destroyed OLine)
2021 - 19th (Lost to CIN in AFCCG - Overtime)
2022 - 21st (Super Bowl Win)
2023 - 3rd (Super Bowl win)
Average: 16th

Comparing Mahomes defensive support to Josh Allen's and Lamar Jackson's defensive support (playoff opponents this year with sizable data):

Josh Allen:
2018 - 10th
2019 - 2nd
2020 - 16th
2021 - 1st
2022 - 5th
2023 - 6th (AVG: 6.7)

Lamar Jackson:
2018 - 2nd
2019 - 5th
2020 - 4th
2021 - 11th
2022 - 9th
2023 - 1st (AVG: 5.3)

Conclusion: Mahomes is more successful than his competitors even with significantly less defensive support. (We all knew this, but it's always nice to have numbers to quantify it.)

Again, Super Bowl wins are team stats, all individual metrics on a per game basis are heavily heavily in Mahomes' favor, and the eye test says the same. And if you want to play the SB game, Mahomes has already twice done what Brady could never do and that is win it all without a top 10 D.

 

[MinJaBen]

Taken from another forum but relevant:




Again, Super Bowl wins are team stats, all individual metrics on a per game basis are heavily heavily in Mahomes' favor, and the eye test says the same. And if you want to play the SB game, Mahomes has already twice done what Brady could never do and that is win it all without a top 10 D.

The counterpoint to the post you shared is why was the defense so good? Because the QB was sooo good that he kept them off the field for long stretches and he was soooooo good that the GM of his team was able to spend more money on the defense because he knew any receiver and TE would be enough with his QB.

Like you said, it is a team sport, and the makeup of the team is in large part dictated by how many holes the GM needs to fill. With a GOAT QB, there are less holes on offense so they can afford to spend on the defense.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

The counterpoint to the post you shared is why was the defense so good? Because the QB was sooo good that he kept them off the field for long stretches and he was soooooo good that the GM of his team was able to spend more money on the defense because he knew any receiver and TE would be enough with his QB.

Like you said, it is a team sport, and the makeup of the team is in large part dictated by how many holes the GM needs to fill. With a GOAT QB, there are less holes on offense so they can afford to spend on the defense.

Those stats actually take into account how often the D sees the field. Maybe not fully due to fatigue but it's point allowed per drive, not total points allowed. And I don't think you want to start arguing offensive supporting casts as Mahomes' supporting casts this year and last year were worse than any Brady has ever had in his career, when including the OL. The first SB with Hill and a right in his prime Kelce yes they were stacked, but certainly not these most recent 2. Unsung hero of the Patriots dynasty was Dante Scarnecchia who gave Brady a top 5 OL consistently throughout his entire career, and it certainly helped that the league wouldn't let defensive players breathe on the guy. Swap Brady and Mahomes in that SB a few years ago and Brady probably doesn't finish the game behind that OL, while Mahomes is out there running for his life and still making insane throws while parallel to the ground that his WRs dropped.

And anyways the same team building argument can be made for any great QB -- Manning, Rodgers, Brees, etc. None of them had to spend on offense with those guys and yet their GMs/HCs still could not build enough talent around them on both sides of the ball to win it all more than once. Brady's teams also had the benefit of him being on a cheap rookie deal for the first 3 SBs he was a game manager for and then below market value contracts his whole career because he married someone wealthier than him. You can give him credit for that if you want but it has no bearing on the play on the field which is what matters when comparing players.

 

[HisIceness]

What the f***?

 

[Svechhammer]

What the f***?

Idiocy. That defense was the only reason SF was in the game, and they fire their DC?

Reminds me of the Flyers firing Terry Murray after reaching the Finals in 1997. This is going to be a costly mistake for that franchise.

Hate to see it

 

[Sens1Canes2]

Idiocy. That defense was the only reason SF was in the game, and they fire their DC?

Reminds me of the Flyers firing Terry Murray after reaching the Finals in 1997. This is going to be a costly mistake for that franchise.

Hate to see it

I feel like he may not work well with others. You don’t get dinged this many times without an overriding reason.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Setting Cam Newton taking on a whole group of young miscreants whilst wearing a wizard's hat is the energy I needed this Monday AM.

Cedric the Entertainer reprising his role in Barbershop yelling "chill! chill!" is the cherry on top.

And the cane toppling down the stairs? That's like Eisenstein.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Setting Cam Newton taking on a whole group of young miscreants whilst wearing a wizard's hat is the energy I needed this Monday AM.

Cedric the Entertainer reprising his role in Barbershop yelling "chill! chill!" is the cherry on top.

And the cane toppling down the stairs? That's like Eisenstein.

I also like when the first guy with "Security" on his sweater shows up and proceeds to just stand there. "Oh, Hell no!"

 

[Elvis P]

I think Maye is a top 3 pick in the draft. @tarheelhockey Are you with me?

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Maye sucks.

Shame Caleb Williamson exists, else Da Bears could blow yet another 1st oa on an overrated Tar Hole qb

 

[HisIceness]

I wasn't impressed with Maye when I watched him. He seems like a poor man's Justin Herbert, which isn't terrible but he's gotta go to the right situation to thrive.

I'm not impressed with any of these QBs honestly. Social media has hyped them up too much methinks.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think Maye is a top 3 pick in the draft. @tarheelhockey Are you with me?

Top 5 for sure. Depends on whether someone reaches.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Maye sucks.

Shame Caleb Williamson exists, else Da Bears could blow yet another 1st oa on an overrated Tar Hole qb

In fairness, we fans suck at evaluating QB talent and frankly so do NFL GMs. Did any one predict Brett Favre would be a dominant QB? Or even Aaron Rodgers? Or Tom Brady? Drew Brees? etc.. etc...