Value of: Noah Hanafan's Next Contract

[bluedevil58]

Noah Hanafan, defensemen of the Carolina Hurricanes. What will his next contract look like? 5 years at 4mil perhaps?

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[PucksOnNet]

Hanifin*

I see something more along the lines of 2-3 years at 4.5-5 mill AAV

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I like Dumba as a comparable here. If you adjust for cap inflation, that would be ~$2.85 mil x 2 years. Even if they settle on a more mid-term deal a la Hedman, I’d be surprised if that bridge wasn't structured into the contract.

Hanifin hasn’t earned the AAV it would require to get him on a 7-8 year deal.

 

[One Winged Angel]

Hanifin*

I see something more along the lines of 2-3 years at 4.5-5 mill AAV

Yeah, I was gonna say.

This is like the 3rd time in 3-4 weeks that I've seen his name misspelled on here.

 

[Ezekial]

A hanafan is my favorite type of fan.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

4-5 years at 4.1-4.4 AAV i think

 

[Captain Mountain]

It kinda depends on if a bridge contract is on the table or not.

It'll be interesting to see. He still gets somewhat sheltered in terms of competition and zone starts and his D could use some work, but he's really starting to put it together. Carolina could gamble that he breaks out or hedge their bets and push a bridge.

 

[AvatarAang]

I like Dumba as a comparable here. If you adjust for cap inflation, that would be ~$2.85 mil x 2 years. Even if they settle on a more mid-term deal a la Hedman, I’d be surprised if that bridge wasn't structured into the contract.

Hanifin hasn’t earned the AAV it would require to get him on a 7-8 year deal.

Good post, that seems like a fair comparable that both sides would agree to. Bridge deal seems like a smart move for both sides.

 

[biturbo19]

I'd imagine it comes down to whether Hanifin and his agent are willing to go long-term at a reasonable figure, or if they're after huge money via a cheaper, short-term bridge contract...then a renegotiation in a year or two.

If you're going to go long-term, i'd think he comes in somewhere between Slavin ($5.3 x6) and Pesce ($4.025 x6). Not so much because he's better than Pesce currently, but because he's got that high pick leverage that always impacts things, along with a significantly higher point-producing upside. Which puts it pretty squarely in the sort of ballpark of that Mike Matheson ($4.875 x8) deal in Florida, which was also a real "projection contract" gamble of a deal. Projecting that he'd live up to it, more so than having fully earned it at the time.

But then, i could certainly see Hanifin's camp wanting to push that $$$ figure even higher, under the presumption that he's going to continue to improve substantially and has that high pick "upside" to push well into the other side of $5M. In which case...that starts to become a mighty big gamble. If that's where it goes, it seems like one that could end up in a bridge situation, more in the $3M x 1-2 years sort of range. Back to the bargaining table at the end of that where he may think he's got a shot at cracking $6M from there pending his play, where the cap goes, and what sorts of insane new precedents are set with Karlsson and Doughty contracts at the very top of the market.