No Sir, I Don't Like It (CBA & Lockout Discussion) - Part XI

[guyincognito]

The top end deals mostly trail off at the end so not as much $ tied up in them as u think. It should still be doable to get it down to 52% over three yrs. And I say that number because now that the Nhl has already given into 50, they'll concede a acouple more to get it done.

But they have to be honored under the PA's concept, if it's revisited at a higher % and someone actually runs the math.

So you can't say you'll be at 50% when the last 57% contract doesn't go away until 14 years from now.

 

[Franchise13]

Does NBC have any outs for their contract other than the tack on year? IIRC 1-13-13 is a significant date right?

I feel like I'm forgetting something important.

 

[NHL1674]

Russo

Fehr admitted in presser he didn't run #'s to Option 3. So players take to Twitter saying they offered 50/50 when union boss didn't run #'s?

Maybe the players shouldn't be so quick in running their mouths when it's apparent that their talking head isn't being totally clear with them on the details. But then again, the players have been making themselves look like fools on twitter for days now.

 

[WayneSid9987]

I don't think Fehr has any intention on agreeing to any deal any time soon. He doesn't care about the game. He's more interested in preserving his reputation as a pitbull negotiator. That is my biggest fear. There is a deal there but Fehr will not walk away looking like he took major concessions.

Bingo.
The players can rant and rave all they like on social media.
This is the biggest obstacle in this thing. Mister Fehr.
After time goes by more and more will realize the true reality here. "What are we fighting for exactly?"

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I can't speak for you, but I've never signed any employment contracts that promise me any kind of money ahead of time. I'm compensated for the hours I put in at a rate that is agreed upon signing, which is specifically stipulated as being subject to change. It's neither a confusing nor predatory contract. Salaried employees have options to have money withheld for all sorts of reasons, but unless their salary is reduced, they're paid what they're promised (except what they pay in taxes, but players are subject to that too). If their salary is reduced, their employer is legally required to inform them of the reduction. Employees are guaranteed neither money nor employment, but at least they're not being misled.

NHL contracts are structured so that players are offered something called "money" but it's not really money. It's more of a slice of the HRR pie as a ratio of personal salary to league-wide salary. If league-wide salary grows faster than revenue, players on existing contracts make less money. If the CBA expires and is renegotiated, players on existing contracts make less money, if that trend continues anyway. The whole system is designed so that players on existing contract make less money than the number on the paper that they signed.

Except when revenues go through the roof and the players get more than what the piece of paper says!

 

[Dellstrom]

I'm just going to expect the worst from now on, I got myself way too pumped up. The media helped.

Where's that .gif that showed all the people jumping on the bench and then collapsing that someone posted representing the Wild's season? That describes this week. What a joke...

 

[IslesBeBack*]

The sheer stupidity with this players union is beyond the depths of what my mind can handle.

Making a proposal, the ONLY proposal they claim actually would interest the owners, and they don't "run the numbers?"

Go back to the high socks and basketball shorts. These guys deserve to be locked out forever.

If Bettman sends a huge message soon, I back it 100%. This is the NHL, not the NFL or MLB. What in the ****ing world is Fehr even talking about when he keeps mentioning these two leagues and how they do business? Just shut the **** up already! Let the NFL worry about the NFL you twit. Are you going to secure a record T.V deal with your proposal that you didn't even bother to run the numbers on????

God what a twit.

 

[Ari91]

From Biznasty

"FYI. Telling me I'm a piece of **** and I suck at hockey won't bring back NHL hockey any faster. But it may make you feel better about it."

I didn't tweet him anything like that but I won't lie and say it did not make me laugh. Probably the most accurate things he's said all day.

It's the only sensible and factual thing he's said about these negotiations. Fans don't need to voice their displeasure in that way. It seems weird to call someone a piece of **** and then go to the arena cheer them on when hockey is back, lol.

 

[mossey3535]

Quick question: If the infamous "PROPOSAL NUMBER THREE" were accepted. What would you guys expect that percentage to look like by years two, three, four, and five? Obviously year one will be very, very close to 57% and year six will be very, very close to 50%. What would those middle four years look like? More or less, of course?

Think about it - if you guarantee face value from last CBA, it's essentially playing under the old CBA. Basically it will be a 57/43 split until the bulk value of all existing contracts is expended. So cap space is essentially coming from money resulting from UFA's and retired players every year. Players becoming UFA's represent the end of the 'old-CBA' contracts so you can think of that money being absorbed into the new CBA.

Well I looked up on capgeek and it looks like $400M is coming off the books in UFA's each of the next two years, then $200M the next two after that, then $80M. So it would take $1.3B of the current $1.8B in player salaries off in around 4 years, assuming that once a guy goes UFA his share of that $1.8B is fully removed. After that the number of UFA's on capgeek gets really small.

Assuming 5% growth and the proposed 12.28% 'off the books', $400M would be off the books in each of the first two years. After that, the 12.28% is taking off too much money compared to the contracts being eliminate.

Keep in mind that after four years, you'd still be paying $500M of 'old' salaries league-wide.

In effect the NHLPA's 50/50 deal is the old CBA for a minimum of FOUR YEARS. Not to mention that cap space only comes from UFA's but there should be more players + UFA's fighting for 87% of the UFA dollars that come off the books each year.

 

[BrawlFan]

Fehr will go down as the man who ruined the NHL. If anyone here supports a baseball team not named the Yankees, BoSox or anyother big team in the MLB get ready for that system to occur in the NHL if he gets his way.

Where are the agents in all this? Do they not want to make their full commission? 5% off of a half season is a lot smaller than a full season. Start tweeting the agents ppl! lets fight this Fehr character.

 

[Confucius]

The sheer stupidity with this players union is beyond the depths of what my mind can handle.

Making a proposal, the ONLY proposal they claim actually would interest the owners, and they don't "run the numbers?"

Go back to the high socks and basketball shorts. These guys deserve to be locked out forever.

If Bettman sends a huge message soon, I back it 100%. This is the NHL, not the NFL or MLB. What in the ****ing world is Fehr even talking about when he keeps mentioning these two leagues and how they do business? Just shut the **** up already! Let the NFL worry about the NFL you twit. Are you going to secure a record T.V deal with your proposal that you didn't even bother to run the numbers on????

God what a twit.

Yet it was fine for the league supporters to claim the NFL and NBA are 50 50.

 

[BrawlFan]

The sheer stupidity with this players union is beyond the depths of what my mind can handle.

Making a proposal, the ONLY proposal they claim actually would interest the owners, and they don't "run the numbers?"

Go back to the high socks and basketball shorts. These guys deserve to be locked out forever.

If Bettman sends a huge message soon, I back it 100%. This is the NHL, not the NFL or MLB. What in the ****ing world is Fehr even talking about when he keeps mentioning these two leagues and how they do business? Just shut the **** up already! Let the NFL worry about the NFL you twit. Are you going to secure a record T.V deal with your proposal that you didn't even bother to run the numbers on????

God what a twit.

Well said sir. It seems the MODS are the only ones who back the NHLPA. Why? (in Fehrs voice) "I don't know, I wish I could tell you (sad face, but you can tell its fake) but I can't...I just want these guys to play the game they love and make enough for a bag of milk for their starving child"

**** IT! I'll play for nothing..

 

[TruGr1t]

Ha ha, ok the fact the PA made a proposal without even looking at the financial implications brings some levity to the situation. I will laugh about that for a while. There were several posters in here that recognized how ludicrous that idea was within thirty seconds.

 

[Riptide]

Guys guys guys... Today was a great day!


Did you hear the 3rd proposal the PA gave???? (mind you, without any of the structural details - which are minor anyways)...

50-50 right now : if you honor all present contracts.

Think about that for a second.
...
Am i wrong?

Daley said it was something like 600m going to the players on the side. No clue about that number (I assume it's over a couple years).

Honestly we need more info on all 3 proposals before they can really be evaluated. But the bottom line is the PA is saying 1.9B and not a penny less, while the NHL is saying % based, with an immediate reduction.

For there to be no escrow hit to the PA, the split would have to be 54/55% in year one. However the PA isn't interested in talking with a % based number as there's no guarantee that they won't take a hit. NHL isn't interested in talking about de-linking salaries to revenues as it almost guarantee's they take a hit (unless growth is 9%+ (in which case all PA proposals indicate they get some of that growth as well).

Of the two, I see the PA as being the big loser here with their head in the sand. They lose if they miss games. They lose if they take a paycut (although less than if they miss games). There really is no way for them to win here.

 

[hairylikebear]

Except when revenues go through the roof and the players get more than what the piece of paper says!

That would require average league salary to be less than the salary cap midpoint. That doesn't happen.

 

[Positive]

Think about it - if you guarantee face value from last CBA, it's essentially playing under the old CBA. Basically it will be a 57/43 split until the bulk value of all existing contracts is expended. So cap space is essentially coming from money resulting from UFA's and retired players every year. Players becoming UFA's represent the end of the 'old-CBA' contracts so you can think of that money being absorbed into the new CBA.

Well I looked up on capgeek and it looks like $400M is coming off the books in UFA's each of the next two years, then $200M the next two after that, then $80M. So it would take $1.3B of the current $1.8B in player salaries off in around 4 years, assuming that once a guy goes UFA his share of that $1.8B is fully removed. After that the number of UFA's on capgeek gets really small.

Assuming 5% growth and the proposed 12.28% 'off the books', $400M would be off the books in each of the first two years. After that, the 12.28% is taking off too much money compared to the contracts being eliminate.

Keep in mind that after four years, you'd still be paying $500M of 'old' salaries league-wide.

In effect the NHLPA's 50/50 deal is the old CBA for a minimum of FOUR YEARS. Not to mention that cap space only comes from UFA's but there should be more players + UFA's fighting for 87% of the UFA dollars that come off the books each year.

I like to imagine that when Fehr made this verbal offer, he exchanged a wink and smirk with Zach Parise who was in the room somewhere.

 

[Galchenioretty]

There is no "look" about it. They flat out are. The NHLPA is so dysfunctional and it's going to cost us fans a season.

Not that I disagree but does anyone think the NHL is functioning at a high level? They essentially never get these things right and even if they crush the union and write the new CBA themselves, there's no reason to believe we won't be doing this again within a decade.

 

[Wheathead]

Ha ha, ok the fact the PA made a proposal without even looking at the financial implications brings some levity to the situation. I will laugh about that for a while. There were several posters in here that recognized how ludicrous that idea was within thirty seconds.

The fact that Fehr and the NHLPA didn't run the numbers tells me a lot about that union. I know that some people can say that they had to come up with three(!) proposals in a short amount of time, but I wonder... Were these the proposals that the NHLPA was sitting on for a while? If so, why didn't they run the numbers on them?

Even still. Do your math homework. Geez.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

That would require average league salary to be less than the salary cap midpoint. That doesn't happen.

It already did

 

[IslesBeBack*]

Yet it was fine for the league supporters to claim the NFL and NBA are 50 50.

See your interpretation of using the same analogy for both sides is precisely the reason why the players are in the situation they are in.

Bettman quoting those types of percentages SUPPORTS the leagues decision to ask for 50-50. It shows, at a minimum, the NHL keeps it's numbers in line with more profitable sports leagues. AKA: Let me help you understand: The players continue to make high salaries despite the NHL not coming close in revenue to ANY of those leagues.

When Fehr uses the analogy, it shows - at a minimum - that the ****ing players have no clue what they are talking about! You can't compare the two leagues' economic climates when the others take in significantly more money.

It's like if I said, I want that mansion, and because my neighbor was able to afford one, I should be able to afford the same house!

When, in reality, the salaries of both people could be entirely different.

It's called simple ****ING LOGIC!!!!

 

[Riptide]

After an offer is made, the best thing would be to negotiate and discuss, not dismiss and walk away 10 minutes later.

Two things. First off, negotiations lasted 1 hour, not 10 minutes.

Now, when the PA is asking for 1.9B and not a penny less, while the NHL is asking for ~50% (lets pretend this is negotiable up to 53%), where's the middle ground?

PA wants ALL their money immediately, and if growth is too much, then they get some of that too.

NHL wants immediate decreases to player salaries (they say meaningful ones, but lets just start with decreases).

Until one of those sides decides to budge, there's no middle ground there. Discussing things is honestly a waste of time, so why bother?

 

[IslesBeBack*]

I wonder what Toews has to say about all of this. I'm sure he has the special touch to add some precious comments about all of this.

The players are sporting the same, stupid ass line: "We offered 50/50 if the league only promises us to pay what we made in the last CBA, even though that expired and all we are really asking for is an extension of the last CBA!"

The fans should be able to take slapshots at them for a full 2 hours after this crap.

 

[Riptide]

Quick question: If the infamous "PROPOSAL NUMBER THREE" were accepted. What would you guys expect that percentage to look like by years two, three, four, and five? Obviously year one will be very, very close to 57% and year six will be very, very close to 50%. What would those middle four years look like? More or less, of course?

Really hard to tell without more info on that. Same goes for proposal 2 (from what I got of it). I really wish the PA would just release the proposals so everyone can look at them and run the math themselves.

 

[Tra La La]

Ha ha, ok the fact the PA made a proposal without even looking at the financial implications brings some levity to the situation. I will laugh about that for a while. There were several posters in here that recognized how ludicrous that idea was within thirty seconds.

My gut feeling is in the pre meeting conference call , there was player dissatisfaction with what would be proposed by the pa. They tried to cobble something together based on the feedback from players. And blew it.

I think if the owners tuesday offer were put to secret ballot vote it would pass. In all fairness to all parties it should be voted on.

 

[Identity404]

The fact that Fehr and the NHLPA didn't run the numbers tells me a lot about that union. I know that some people can say that they had to come up with three(!) proposals in a short amount of time, but I wonder... Were these the proposals that the NHLPA was sitting on for a while? If so, why didn't they run the numbers on them?

Even still. Do your math homework. Geez.

It seems to me that Fehr probably presented the first two proposals to the players during their conference call before the negotiation session and it was probably not met well with a lot of the players who actually do want to play this season. The player consensus was probably "yeah, 50-50 is fair but I want the all the money from that contract I signed". So they didn't have time to really think out the 3rd proposal or do the math. It explains why it doesn't really make sense and isn't actually a 50-50 split.