They're definitely worth a pick, maybe not a top 10 pick most of the time, but still.
Even at 25% success rate (with success being defined as consistent starter) for the top 2 rounds - that's not bad for a position where only one can start consistently.
Plus, what's the success rate like in later rounds? Absent a few lucky picks, pretty dismal.
I think teams are still going to need to burn picks in the 31st to 120th range (2nd-4th round), but will likely avoid 1st round picks more.
R S
Registered User
- Sep 18, 2006
- 25,468
- 10
I don't buy the goalie phobia when it comes to the draft. Yes, it's a gamble, even more of a gamble then a player but if you like the guy and think he's worth the risk, do it.
People always bring up the late-goalie-steal argument. Well guess what? That happens with players all the time too.
People always bring up the late-goalie-steal argument. Well guess what? That happens with players all the time too.
It's worth the investment risk in the later rounds.
Having 3 years of protected possession of an 18-22 year old goaltender is pretty valuable.
Having 3 years of protected possession of an 18-22 year old goaltender is pretty valuable.
Tough debate.
On one hand would Carolina won a cup if they didn't "waste" a pick on Cam Ward, on the other hand if you look at alot of the top goaltenders int he NHL how many were picked in the 3rd round and beyond.
I think going by percentages it's much easier to find a star goalie later on in the draft(ie the Diamond int he rough) then it is to find a star forward
On one hand would Carolina won a cup if they didn't "waste" a pick on Cam Ward, on the other hand if you look at alot of the top goaltenders int he NHL how many were picked in the 3rd round and beyond.
I think going by percentages it's much easier to find a star goalie later on in the draft(ie the Diamond int he rough) then it is to find a star forward
Erza Scarlet
following the mantle
I don't think goalies should be ranked on HF or on reports because of how unpredictable goaltending is and these European signings tend to give just as good results than waiting on the kid.
Stjonnypopo
Rgesitreed Uesr
They should still be ranked, but their rankings shouldn't be as concrete as player rankings are.
As a fan and believer in Carey Price, I still say no, don't burn the pick.
It worked out for us (so far) instead of picking Brule, but most of the time it doesn't.
It worked out for us (so far) instead of picking Brule, but most of the time it doesn't.
Em Ancien
Sexy 2nd Rounder
JMcLeaf
__________
- Mar 21, 2010
- 18,601
- 19
Em Ancien
Sexy 2nd Rounder
Here is a list of goalies and where they were picked. I will use the top 10 goalies in GAA, Save Percentage and Wins(and if they appear in 2 or more categories I only count them once and they have to play 25+ games to be counted)
Top 10: Loungo, Price, Fleury
1st Round: Ward, Schnieder, Varlamov
2nd Round: Howard, Bryzgalov, Crawford
3rd Round: Quick
4th+ Round: Kiprusoff, Lundqvist, Thomas, Rinne, Vokoun
Free Agent: Hiller
*note: Ryan Miller wasn't top 10 in any category this year but is another late round pick
on the flip side here is Forwards(I use top 20 in points, top 10 in goals and assists)
Top 10: Sedin, Sedin, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Selanne, Staal, Toews, Marleau, Vanek, Kane, Ryan
1st Round: Perry, Iginla, Giroux, Kesler, Getzlaf, Kopitar, Carter, Briere, Grabner
2nd Round: Erikson, Ribeiro
3rd Round: B. Richards, Sharp
4th+ Round: Zetterberg
Free Agent: St. Louis
*note: Datsyuk was injured for 26 games probably would have made the list in 4th+ rounder
basically looking at this list, the group of goalies taken in the first rounder is slightly better then goalies taken in round 2 and after, but in the case of forwards first round forwards are a hell of alot better then ones taken later
It's really hard to rate defensemen based on stats but I will do it on the basis of top 20 scoring and top 10 Time on Ice
Top 10: Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Doughty, Whitney, Phaneuf, Suter
1st Round: Seabrook, Burns, Karlsson, Staal
2nd Round: Weber, Goligoski, Keith
3rd Round: Lidstrom, Letang, Chara
4th+ Round: Visnovsky, Yandle, Byfuglien, Wisniewski, Enstrom, Ehrhoff, Kaberle, Liles
Free Agent: Boyle, Rafalski
In general it looks like the best drafting strategy is draft forwards first round, defensemen second round and later and European goalies after the 3rd.
Top 10: Loungo, Price, Fleury
1st Round: Ward, Schnieder, Varlamov
2nd Round: Howard, Bryzgalov, Crawford
3rd Round: Quick
4th+ Round: Kiprusoff, Lundqvist, Thomas, Rinne, Vokoun
Free Agent: Hiller
*note: Ryan Miller wasn't top 10 in any category this year but is another late round pick
on the flip side here is Forwards(I use top 20 in points, top 10 in goals and assists)
Top 10: Sedin, Sedin, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Selanne, Staal, Toews, Marleau, Vanek, Kane, Ryan
1st Round: Perry, Iginla, Giroux, Kesler, Getzlaf, Kopitar, Carter, Briere, Grabner
2nd Round: Erikson, Ribeiro
3rd Round: B. Richards, Sharp
4th+ Round: Zetterberg
Free Agent: St. Louis
*note: Datsyuk was injured for 26 games probably would have made the list in 4th+ rounder
basically looking at this list, the group of goalies taken in the first rounder is slightly better then goalies taken in round 2 and after, but in the case of forwards first round forwards are a hell of alot better then ones taken later
It's really hard to rate defensemen based on stats but I will do it on the basis of top 20 scoring and top 10 Time on Ice
Top 10: Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Doughty, Whitney, Phaneuf, Suter
1st Round: Seabrook, Burns, Karlsson, Staal
2nd Round: Weber, Goligoski, Keith
3rd Round: Lidstrom, Letang, Chara
4th+ Round: Visnovsky, Yandle, Byfuglien, Wisniewski, Enstrom, Ehrhoff, Kaberle, Liles
Free Agent: Boyle, Rafalski
In general it looks like the best drafting strategy is draft forwards first round, defensemen second round and later and European goalies after the 3rd.
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UpsideHockey
Registered User
A similar analogy is baseball teams drafting high-schoolers and more specifically pitchers. They continue to do so even when the return yielded is substantially lower, for the most part, than college, positional players.
Of course, i realize the many differences betwen baseball and hockey draft.
***
Prospects and draft analyst at The Hockey Writers (THW): http://thehockeywriters.com/author/cralph/
The Next Ones (from the files of The Hockey Spy): http://hockeyspy.blogspot.com/
• Twitter: @ChrisRalphTHW
Of course, i realize the many differences betwen baseball and hockey draft.
***
Prospects and draft analyst at The Hockey Writers (THW): http://thehockeywriters.com/author/cralph/
The Next Ones (from the files of The Hockey Spy): http://hockeyspy.blogspot.com/
• Twitter: @ChrisRalphTHW
Freudian
Clearly deranged
- Jul 3, 2003
- 50,441
- 17,249
Having a very long development path diminishes the value of a drafted player. Look at Cory Schneider. He's just broken through and there is basically a 1-2 year window to either decide to make him your starter or trade him.
Skaters are easier to project and develop faster (especially forwards). That's why I prefer picking them in the first round over goalies.
Skaters are easier to project and develop faster (especially forwards). That's why I prefer picking them in the first round over goalies.
UpsideHockey
Registered User
True, but Flames traded that 20th overall pick to Devils to move up and select Trevor Kidd!
I wouldn't take one until the third round, unless it is a sure fire can't miss prospect. Even then, I am sure I wouldn't burn a first rounder on one.
txomisc
Registered User
I just dont think theres much difference between most goalies. There are maybe 5 elites, but even those guys are not exactly consistent. Hell mr everything goalie tim thomas pretty much lost his job last season. Goalies 6-25 are probably all pretty much interchangeable. Then you have 5 or less that probably shouldnt be starting but there are probably 5 backups who are solid enough to be starters.
Danton Heineken
Howard Potts
Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider, Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jon Bernier.
It's much easier to find a late-round goalie who can develop into a starter than it is with other positions, but the elite level talents will still rise to the top, and you're gonna have to pay a 1st round pick if you want one.
It's much easier to find a late-round goalie who can develop into a starter than it is with other positions, but the elite level talents will still rise to the top, and you're gonna have to pay a 1st round pick if you want one.
