No need to waste picks on goalies...

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by ShawnTHW, Jun 18, 2011.

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  1. ShawnTHW

    ShawnTHW @ShawnTHW

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  2. Pyke*

    Pyke* Guest

    They're definitely worth a pick, maybe not a top 10 pick most of the time, but still.

    Even at 25% success rate (with success being defined as consistent starter) for the top 2 rounds - that's not bad for a position where only one can start consistently.

    Plus, what's the success rate like in later rounds? Absent a few lucky picks, pretty dismal.

    I think teams are still going to need to burn picks in the 31st to 120th range (2nd-4th round), but will likely avoid 1st round picks more.
     
  3. R S

    R S @avs_tweets

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    I don't buy the goalie phobia when it comes to the draft. Yes, it's a gamble, even more of a gamble then a player but if you like the guy and think he's worth the risk, do it.

    People always bring up the late-goalie-steal argument. Well guess what? That happens with players all the time too.
     
  4. It's worth the investment risk in the later rounds.

    Having 3 years of protected possession of an 18-22 year old goaltender is pretty valuable.
     
  5. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    Tough debate.

    On one hand would Carolina won a cup if they didn't "waste" a pick on Cam Ward, on the other hand if you look at alot of the top goaltenders int he NHL how many were picked in the 3rd round and beyond.

    I think going by percentages it's much easier to find a star goalie later on in the draft(ie the Diamond int he rough) then it is to find a star forward
     
  6. Erza Scarlet

    Erza Scarlet following the mantle

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    I don't think goalies should be ranked on HF or on reports because of how unpredictable goaltending is and these European signings tend to give just as good results than waiting on the kid.
     
  7. Stjonnypopo

    Stjonnypopo Rgesitreed Uesr

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    They should still be ranked, but their rankings shouldn't be as concrete as player rankings are.
     
  8. Frank Drebin

    Frank Drebin Habs Sponsor

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    As a fan and believer in Carey Price, I still say no, don't burn the pick.

    It worked out for us (so far) instead of picking Brule, but most of the time it doesn't.
     
  9. Em Ancien

    Em Ancien Sexy 2nd Rounder

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    If you're sure enough about them, go ahead.
     
  10. JMcLeaf

    JMcLeaf __________

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    Did most Habs fans want Brule at the time?
     
  11. Em Ancien

    Em Ancien Sexy 2nd Rounder

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    Yup.
     
  12. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    Kopitar was another choice though they could have made
     
  13. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    Here is a list of goalies and where they were picked. I will use the top 10 goalies in GAA, Save Percentage and Wins(and if they appear in 2 or more categories I only count them once and they have to play 25+ games to be counted)

    Top 10: Loungo, Price, Fleury
    1st Round: Ward, Schnieder, Varlamov
    2nd Round: Howard, Bryzgalov, Crawford
    3rd Round: Quick
    4th+ Round: Kiprusoff, Lundqvist, Thomas, Rinne, Vokoun
    Free Agent: Hiller

    *note: Ryan Miller wasn't top 10 in any category this year but is another late round pick

    on the flip side here is Forwards(I use top 20 in points, top 10 in goals and assists)

    Top 10: Sedin, Sedin, Stamkos, Ovechkin, Selanne, Staal, Toews, Marleau, Vanek, Kane, Ryan
    1st Round: Perry, Iginla, Giroux, Kesler, Getzlaf, Kopitar, Carter, Briere, Grabner
    2nd Round: Erikson, Ribeiro
    3rd Round: B. Richards, Sharp
    4th+ Round: Zetterberg
    Free Agent: St. Louis

    *note: Datsyuk was injured for 26 games probably would have made the list in 4th+ rounder

    basically looking at this list, the group of goalies taken in the first rounder is slightly better then goalies taken in round 2 and after, but in the case of forwards first round forwards are a hell of alot better then ones taken later

    It's really hard to rate defensemen based on stats but I will do it on the basis of top 20 scoring and top 10 Time on Ice

    Top 10: Pietrangelo, Bouwmeester, Doughty, Whitney, Phaneuf, Suter
    1st Round: Seabrook, Burns, Karlsson, Staal
    2nd Round: Weber, Goligoski, Keith
    3rd Round: Lidstrom, Letang, Chara
    4th+ Round: Visnovsky, Yandle, Byfuglien, Wisniewski, Enstrom, Ehrhoff, Kaberle, Liles
    Free Agent: Boyle, Rafalski

    In general it looks like the best drafting strategy is draft forwards first round, defensemen second round and later and European goalies after the 3rd.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2011
  14. chrisralph007

    chrisralph007 Registered User

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    A similar analogy is baseball teams drafting high-schoolers and more specifically pitchers. They continue to do so even when the return yielded is substantially lower, for the most part, than college, positional players.

    Of course, i realize the many differences betwen baseball and hockey draft.

    ***
    Prospects and draft analyst at The Hockey Writers (THW): http://thehockeywriters.com/author/cralph/

    The Next Ones (from the files of The Hockey Spy): http://hockeyspy.blogspot.com/

    • Twitter: @ChrisRalphTHW
     
  15. SK13

    SK13 T. Yoshi Muchakoopas

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    I would never burn a pick in the top sixty on them, but I think you need one from every draft.
     
  16. Leviathan

    Leviathan Registered User

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    Let's not forget Brodeur was drafted 20th overall either...
     
  17. GKJ

    GKJ Global Moderator

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    3 of the 6 Cup winning goalies since the lockout were 1st round picks. Chris Osgood was a 3rd round pick.
     
  18. Freudian

    Freudian Clearly deranged

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    is everything
    Having a very long development path diminishes the value of a drafted player. Look at Cory Schneider. He's just broken through and there is basically a 1-2 year window to either decide to make him your starter or trade him.

    Skaters are easier to project and develop faster (especially forwards). That's why I prefer picking them in the first round over goalies.
     
  19. Confound

    Confound Vindication

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    I wouldn't until the third round.
     
  20. chrisralph007

    chrisralph007 Registered User

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    True, but Flames traded that 20th overall pick to Devils to move up and select Trevor Kidd!
     
  21. boredmale

    boredmale Registered User Sponsor

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    which means that 3 of the 6 goalies weren't first rounder as well
     
  22. zeus3007*

    zeus3007* Guest

    I wouldn't take one until the third round, unless it is a sure fire can't miss prospect. Even then, I am sure I wouldn't burn a first rounder on one.
     
  23. txomisc

    txomisc Registered User

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    I just dont think theres much difference between most goalies. There are maybe 5 elites, but even those guys are not exactly consistent. Hell mr everything goalie tim thomas pretty much lost his job last season. Goalies 6-25 are probably all pretty much interchangeable. Then you have 5 or less that probably shouldnt be starting but there are probably 5 backups who are solid enough to be starters.
     
  24. 2 of the the past 4 stanley cup winning captains weren't first round picks.
     
  25. Danton Heineken

    Danton Heineken Nick Rash

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    Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider, Carey Price, Marc-Andre Fleury, Jon Bernier.


    It's much easier to find a late-round goalie who can develop into a starter than it is with other positions, but the elite level talents will still rise to the top, and you're gonna have to pay a 1st round pick if you want one.
     

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