nki's 2015 top 120 and scouting resource

[NikF]

MY FINAL RANKING IS HERE: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1903817

REPORTS (ongoing, not a ranking)
Travis Konecny
Mitchell Marner
Dylan Strome
Ivan Provorov
Connor McDavid
Mikko Rantanen
Jack Eichel
Noah Hanifin
Zach Werenski
Pavel Zacha
Brandon Carlo
Kyle Connor
Lawson Crouse
Mathew Barzal
Nick Merkley
Jeremy Roy
Jakub Zboril
Oliver Kylington
Timo Meier
Roope Hintz
Jens Looke
Jansen Harkins
Evgeni Svechnikov
Nicolas Roy
Filip Chlapik
Paul Bittner
Daniel Sprong
Thomas Chabot
Matthew Spencer
Noah Juulsen
Thomas Novak
Colin White
Jordan Greenway
Adam Musil
Brock Boeser
Jeremy Bracco
Christian Fischer
Jake DeBrusk
Nikita Korostelev
Ryan Pilon
Mitchell Vande Sompel
Nicolas Meloche
Joel Eriksson-Ek
Jacob Larsson
Julius Nattinen
Gabriel Carlsson
Jesper Lindgren
Jack Roslovic
Michael Spacek
Denis Guryanov
Alexander Dergachyov
Jonas Siegenthaler
Erik Cernak
Filip Ahl
Anthony Beauvillier
Vince Dunn
Mitchell Stephens
Rasmus Andersson
Brendan Guhle
Austin Wagner
Travis Dermott
Blake Speers
Zachary Senyshyn
Colton White
Graham Knott
Gustav Bouramman
Parker Wotherspoon
Ryan Gropp
Ethan Bear
Brett McKenzie
Andrew Mangiapane
Gabriel Gagne
Dennis Yan
Anthony Cirelli
Thomas Schemitsch
Alexandre Carrier
Guillaume Brisebois
Glenn Gawdin
Andrew Nielsen
Yakov Trenin
Nathan Noel
Conor Garland
Deven Sideroff
Keegan Kolesar
Kyle Capobianco
Matt Schmalz
Vili Saarijarvi
Dennis Gilbert
Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson
Cal Burke
Nikita Pavlychev
Chris Wilkie
Casey Fitzgerald
Caleb Jones
Steven Ruggiero
Nicholas Boka
Alexandre Goulet
Samuel Dove-McFalls
Loik Leveille
Matt Bradley
Chris Martenet
Jeremiah Addison
Cameron Lizotte
Denis Malgin
Chaz Reddekopp
Tyler Soy
Adam Helewka
Connor Hobbs
Sebastian Aho (W, FIN)
Aleksi Saarela
Brendan Warren
Troy Terry
Stephen Desrocher
David Kase
John Dahlstrom
Vyacheslav Leschenko
Brad Morrison
Sebastian Aho
Erik Foley
David Cotton
Jake Massie

GOALIES
MacKenzie Blackwood
Callum Booth
Daniel Vladar
Felix Sandstrom
Ilya Samsonov

BONUS POSTS:
Pavel Zacha breakdown
Roope Hintz breakdown
Roope Hintz minor correction*
Mathew Barzal
Dylan Strome Breakdown
Mitchell Marner Breakdown

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__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

INTRODUCTION

- The very first thing is that I'm not a professional, keep that in mind

- Everything is done through video scouting, keep in mind everything that comes with that and the fact that there is a very small number of semi-prominent prospects that I will not be able to view, when I release my final ranking I will specify these prospects (last year the most prominent one was Julius Bergman for example)

- That said I do love hockey and I will try to do the reports as honestly as my own ability to evaluate allows me to, part of the reason why I want to do this is for my own enjoyment and the other part is so that we on HF can have extensive scouting reports as a reference (if you choose to put any merit into my opinion of course ) as opposed to the usual freely available 3 sentence long descriptions.

- For now, I will not be doing the rankings but only the reports of the players that will most likely be in my final top 120. My process is I usually identify a player I think is projectable, write a very short report, then write a longer one once I'm convinced that he has a good chance to finish in my top 120. Here I will only post the long reports, so you will not get the boring short ones that serve only as a note to myself and several of which will not move past that if I deem them not top 120 worthy later on. I don't know whether this will be updated with regular intervals, but I will get all of 120 done before I release the ranking of them. The final ranking is going to be done at least a week before the draft and I will probably open a new thread with the same reports (although some details might change with new viewings) but sorted by their rank. Once that is done, I can also send the Word document to your email if anyone would like that as it will probably be more handy than a long stretched-out thread.

- Since this will be a very long thread (assuming the mods allow it) I haven't yet decided what the best method would be, a new post for each player, or editing it all into one post. I will probably post a new post for each player so there will be new pages instead one single one stretched beyond what is reasonable.

- I don't expect a lot of comments, but debate is always good. If you disagree with a player's assessment chime in! I'm not a pro, so chances are I will be wrong compared to someone who has seen that player play regularly as opposed to me where I hit 5-10 viewings for first rounders, and 3-5 for marginal prospects.

- Either way I hope this will serve someone well, if not I guess it's just going to be my own little corner of the internet lol.

METHODOLOGY AND FORMAT

This is the format that will be used for all players.

Keep in mind when you are reading the descriptions, they are generally meant to paint a picture of what various categories like defensive transition etc. mean, you don't have to dogmatically hang to every single word that is there or isn't there, but if you watch hockey you will get it most likely.

Grading:
A = excellent
B = good
C = average
D = below average
F = deficient
+/- grades are possible as in: B+ or B-

Defensemen

Name: Prospect's name

Offensive zone ability: Receives a grade. Offensive zone ability means how a defenseman acts in more stationary settings in the offensive zone. This includes things like shot, getting the puck on net, keeping the puck in the zone, wall-play, ability to come in back-door, etc.

Offensive transition ability: Receives a grade. Offensive transition ability means how a defenseman acts in less stationary settings when his team or he has the puck. This also includes any and all positioning when his teammates have the puck and the play is moving forward, even if he is not in possession of the puck. Break-outs, availability as an outlet, delays and angling in defensive zone, joining the rush, skating etc.

Puck movement and possession retention: Receives a grade. This category means every single thing that relates to what a defenseman does primarily with the puck on his stick but also by positioning without the puck in all zones and how it relates to him impacting the team's possession time. Both in stationary and transitional settings. Puck management is involved here.

Defensive transition ability: Receives a grade. Defensive transition ability means everything that happens when the play is less stationary and the other team has the puck. It goes for all zones. Meaning this includes, positioning, skating, stick-ability, gap control, reading the play etc.

Defensive zone ability: Receives a grade. Defensive zone ability means everything that happens when the play is more stationary, especially in the defensive zone and the other team has the puck. This means positional sense, boardwork, net clearing, gap control, body angling, defending home-plate, etc.

Style: The following categories are simply the style of a prospect's game, it does not assign value to a prospect, it simply shows stylistical nuances that however can be important when assembling a team.

defense:
heavily positional, positional, mixed, athletic, heavily athletic: One of these options will be used. It describes whether a defenseman defends more by relying on his athleticism (can be either size or skating or some combination of it) or more on his positioning.

offense:
heavily cerebral, cerebral, mixed, forceful, heavily forceful: One of these options will be used. It describes whether a defenseman partakes in offense by relying more on a cerebral approach or more on a forceful direct one.

Keywords, unique identity traits: Very short description of what is unique to the prospect and what is his identity on the ice.

Analysis: The most improtant part of the report, it will feature a longer write-up with more nuances and hopefully a clear picture of the prospect.

Developmental focus: A short description of what the prospect should work on or focus on in his development.

Projection: The prospect's projection to the NHL level.
_______________________________________________________________________

Forwards

Name: Prospect's name

Offensive zone ability: This category describes a forward's ability when the puck is in the offensive zone in more stationary situations, meaning the team is set up in the zone. Involves cycling, getting open, playmaking, creating space, net-presence, tips, shot, finding "soft spots", etc.

Offensive transition ability: This category describes a forward's ability when he or his team have the puck and the play is moving forward and is less stationary, involves all 3 zones. Break-outs, support, entries, offensive neutral zone play, offensive rushes etc.

Puck movement and possession retention: This category involves a forward's ability in all 3 zones as it relates to improving his team's puck possession and puck management.

Defensive transition ability: This category involves a forward's defensive ability when the other team is in the possession of the puck and the play is less stationary. Involves forechecking, backchecking, neutral zone play, picking up men on the rush, disrupting passing and getting into lanes, etc.

Defensive zone ability: This category involves a forward's ability when the play is more stationary and primarily in his own zone. Meaning how does he play the point, how does he track the opposition, can he angle them outside, is he physically up to par, is he controlling space, is he winning board battles etc.

Style: Simply an outline of a prospect's stylistical nuances, not a value judgement.

defense:
heavily positional, positional, mixed, athletic, heavily athletic: describes his style of defense, is he relying more on positioning or athleticism.

offense:
heavily cerebral, cerebral, mixed, forceful, heavily forceful: describes his style of offense, is he relying on a more cerebral approach or is he more aggressive in forcing the play.

keywords, unique identity traits: A very short description of unique traits and a prospect's identity.

Analysis: The most improtant part of the report, it will feature a longer write-up with more nuances and hopefully a clear picture of the prospect.

Developmental focus: A short description of what the prospect should work on or focus on in his development.

Projection: The prospect's projection to the NHL level.
_______________________________________________________________________

Goaltenders

Name: Prospect's name

Technical ability: This category rates a goalie's technique (positioning, stick, angles, recovery, skating)

Athletic ability: This category rates a goalie's athleticism (explosiveness, reflexes, flexibility, size)

Mental ability: This category rates a goalie's mental ability (think competitiveness, composure, ability to rebound after a bad goal etc.)

keywords, unique identity traits: A very short description of unique traits and a prospect's identity.

Analysis: The most improtant part of the report, it will feature a longer write-up with more nuances and hopefully a clear picture of the prospect.

Developmental focus: A short description of what the prospect should work on or focus on in his development.

Projection: The prospect's projection to the NHL level.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
EDIT: I've decided to add "room for improvement" category to all prospects.
EDIT#2: For those who do not know this, if you are searching for a specific prospect, you can press ctrl+f, this will open up a search tool and you simply put in the name of the prospect you are interested in and the name will be highlighted on the page you are on.

Click to read more...

 

[ahmon]

Looking forward to your reports.

 

[NikF]

Here we go I'll start with Konecny since I've already posted it in his thread.

Travis Konecny:

Offensive zone ability: B+
Offensive transition ability: A-
Puck movement and possession retention: B-
Defensive transition ability: B
Defensive zone ability: C+

Defense: Athletic
Offense: forceful

Keywords, unique identity traits: Intensity, skill, shot, speed
Room for improvement: Puck management, gear changes (mix fast with slowing down when it fits the play), thin frame, some small reads that make a difference in keeping possession of the puck

Full analysis:
Travis Konecny is a speedy, high-octane forward with a tremendous skill level and a lethal quick-release shot. Although there are some frame-concerns as he has a relatively slight build, he appears strong on his skates. Therefore while it is possible that he won't be able to dish out physical punishment with any regularity against bigger competition, I would not worry too much about his tenacity. In fact intensity and compete level are a staple of Konecny's game as he attacks loose pucks, hounds the puck-carrier, occasionally blows someone up and generally plays the game at a high tempo and at a high compete level, combine that with a very high skill level, ability to handle the puck, speed, and a very good shot and you quickly get a very alluring package.

At this point in time though, it is precisely Konecny's high intensity that sometimes prevents him from exhibiting more control over the game. He appears to be permanently stuck in highest gear mode, which at times prevents him from asserting control over the pace of the game and limits him in elevating his teammates ability. Right now his game is primarily based on exploiting those half-spaces and breakdowns rather than orchestrating the ice as a conductor.

As he matures, it should become a focus that he mixes his intensity with a more patient, poised approach and thus improves his puck-management and becomes easier and more natural to play with and in turn that should produce a more synergistic effect on his linemates. Though, even now he does not appear to be exactly lacking in vision or seeing plays at a high level, it is rather his M.O. that is tilted towards aggresiveness over the cerebral aspect that prevents him from exhibiting control and establishing that factor that makes everyone else on the ice exponentionally better. This in my mind is a key difference as vision is unlikely to be developed, but dialling someone's approach back slightly is a more realistic option. Neverheless, his reads and decision making while good aren't quite at an elite level.

Defensively he competes very hard, whether it is back-checking, forechecking, committing to board battles or putting forth an effort to positionally defend in his own zone, he does it all, though his positional sense might be the least developed out of those. Offensively he isn't afraid to attack the dirty areas, in fact he doesn't hold back from doing so but plays the game closer to a bulldog than someone who is afraid of traffic or second-guessing his choices. Right now he does most of it through his effort level and skill as his game is still a bit too all over the place and lacking pro-structure and positioning.

Despite his modest size, I am not concerned about Konecny's ability to protect the puck and keep possession of it as he is strong on his skates and shifty with a low centre of gravity which should allow him to utilize body positioning and leverage as an advantage. One thing that is particularly noticeable to me with Konecny are his "body mechanics" as his posture appears incredibly natural and at ease on ice while performing various technical aspects of the game. It does not ever really look like he is laboring or struggling with any technical element.

Going forward, Konecny's potential is vast and with slightly more structure and patience to his game he could emerge as one of the key offensive threats from the draft. It is precisely his intensity combined with skill level that makes him so appealing, however where he ultimately ends up will likely be determined by how much polish he can add to his game where a little of his endless energy should be channelled into better puck management. If he is unable to add more variety and patience and his game remains tilted completely to the compete-level side of it, he could turn out to be a 3rd line buzzsaw with skill, with more progression in those areas though Konecny should top out as a top 6 forward (more leaning to the winger side of it at this point in time) with a tantalizing combination of skill and compete level as his calling card and ability to play both PP (courtesy of his skill) and PK (courtesy of his compete level).

It should be noted that Konecny's high octane game isn't meant as a criticism, in fact it is his strength and likely to define his career. It was merely pointed out to illuminate room for improvement on the other end of the spectrum as in Konecny's case it's safe to say that slightly less might result in a lot more. Overall if Konecny had a thicker frame, a slightly better disposition for controlling the play with patience and gear changes, and a touch better reads (heck at that point we might as well be describing McDavid) we would probably be talking about a top 5 pick and maybe higher in a different draft year. However having a committed emotional leader with that combination of intensity and skill is still incredibly alluring by itself.

Developmental focus: Ease back from his all-out all-the-time intensity, mix it with a more patient game that should result in better puck management and more synergy with his linemates.

Projection: top 6 offensive threat with alluring combination of intensity and skill. Could be used on both PP and PK.

 

[Skinnyjimmy08]

this may take you a really long time to do haha

 

[arsmaster*]

It will, but I like it so far. Good stuff nki.

 

[Approved Variety]

Yeah, this is great. Bookmarked!

 

[NikF]

this may take you a really long time to do haha

I'm essentially just copy/pasting from my notes that are on the laptop and those notes come as I watch prospects. I don't have full reports written up yet on all of them, nor have I seen all of them yet, so this will probably be done in full a few weeks before the draft at which point I'll open another thread and sort it by my ranking. But there should be regular updates in this thread with profiles, I just want to pace myself a little bit so it's updated in regular intervals instead of me now posting a bunch of them, might re-think this later though and do it a different way. Also I'll reiterate that the Full Analysis part is really the most important, the rest serves mostly just to quickly paint a basic picture.

 

[Tatar Shots]

Looks like you got your work cut out for you, this looks promising though. One suggestion I would make is instead of a room for improvement category, I would make a slight change to that category to "biggest area for improvement." In reality all prospects need improvement in virtually all aspects of their games and I think it would be easier to just identify their biggest need for improvement. You have quite a few aspects for Konency and I think it would be more insightful if you focused on less areas but gave a detailed example of how and why they need to improve. Good Luck with this

 

[tony d]

Looking forward to seeing your analysis here, appreciate the effort

 

[AmericanDream]

Looking forward to seeing your analysis here, appreciate the effort

ditto to this as well...

I look forward to reading about Bracco and Bittner and seeing where they stack up as both opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of size and style of play.

 

[NikF]

Looks like you got your work cut out for you, this looks promising though. One suggestion I would make is instead of a room for improvement category, I would make a slight change to that category to "biggest area for improvement." In reality all prospects need improvement in virtually all aspects of their games and I think it would be easier to just identify their biggest need for improvement. You have quite a few aspects for Konency and I think it would be more insightful if you focused on less areas but gave a detailed example of how and why they need to improve. Good Luck with this

I will think about it, it's a good idea. My problem is I want to always get everything across so I always throw out form and functionality for full understanding and details in pretty much everything I write regardless of topic, I tend to have that "what if I don't say this" mentality to it that isn't always the best and things end up sounding always philosophical and at times convoluted even though my goal is actually to bring more understanding to it, should probably start reading Hemingway. I'll post Marner before the prospects game as well and then more tomorrow.

Also I will get everything done don't worry but I'm not sure if I can follow requests because USHL and Canadian Junior streams cost money and I've developed a sort of progression for how I do things, starting with Europe and Canadians and then going to USA. USHL requires a subscription as does major junior so (except for tournaments) I tend to do things one-by-one as it's more organized that way. But I will get your prospect for sure unless he is some obscure guy that probably won't get drafted.

 

[Bobby Blowhard]

I will think about it, it's a good idea. My problem is I want to always get everything across so I always throw out form and functionality for full understanding and details in pretty much everything I write regardless of topic, I tend to have that "what if I don't say this" mentality to it that isn't always the best and things end up sounding always philosophical and at times convoluted even though my goal is actually to bring more understanding to it, should probably start reading Hemingway. I'll post Marner before the prospects game as well and then more tomorrow.
.

I can relate to the writing style you've just described. I like to think it is beneficial for those readers who are happy to take the time and read through the nuances.

I'm looking forward to following this thread but boy have you set the content bar high with your first player analysis! Good luck.

 

[NikF]

Mitchell Marner

Offensive zone ability: A
Offensive transition ability: A
Puck movement and possession retention: A-
Defensive transition ability: B+
Defensive zone ability: B-

Defense: positional
Offense: cerebral

Keywords, unique identity traits: fluid, vision, skill, fantastic reads, puck-stripping
Room for improvement: Needs to get bigger and fill out more

Full Analysis:
Marner is another highly skilled diminuitive forward. His calling card are skills, vision, and poise. Marner plays with his head on a swivel, lookin up to analyze the play and keeps tracking it without the puck. One thing that was noticeable right off the bat with Marner is his look-ahead before he receives the pass which gives him a picture of his options thus minimizing his reaction time as he already knows what his options are before he gets the puck.

Not an overly physical player, although I've seen him finish some checks doesn't really have the body composition to do a lot of damage. Really good skater, stylistically more fluid and controlled than choppy high-energy one, seems to gain space with ease and grace. Has ability to take off and explode offensively but displays a natural processing of the game that allows him to pace himself and be involved in all zones. Fantastic technique with his hands and vision to find open players.

Has good ability to track the play and in his own zone when he is defending the point he displays ability to make a stick-check on the wall or by pressuring the point at the exact time the attacking player is off-balanced momentarily and thus gaining possession – excellent timing on when to pressure and "bite" the puck-carrier to cause a turnover. Has good active stick and ability to strip the puck all over the ice.

Can naturally slow down the game for himself and utilizes his elite vision to find an open man, gives off that vibe of things looking easy that only few players possess. Competes well and commits to defensive fundamentals showing engagement even in more "dry" hard working parts of the game rather than just what he is already naturally good at. Won't blow you away with his intensity, but competes smartly.

Also noticed he seems really comfortable playing the puck with his feet, in one instance deflecting a perfect pinpoint pass to his teammate and several times kicking it from his feet to stick with ease and without losing speed.

Reads the forecheck well, adjusting his angles and routes as needed, surprisingly good puck-retreival, in fact excels at breaking up plays with his stick. Although he is not at the pro-level of structure as most of the prospects aren't, in my viewing experience, he still regularly shows smart little decisions even when the other team has the puck. In his own zone by blocking lanes and in the offensive zone with the ability to read and react to poor break-out choices from the opposite team causing turnovers when he detects an opportunity with his impeccable timing and stick ability. That should serve as an indicator of his hockey IQ and implementing more structurally demanding game as it is required at the pro-level should not be too big of an adjustment for him.

His disposition on ice looks calm, skilled, and confident. There is a sort of a natural understanding of game vibe that he has to him, that you can see by the choices he makes. It seems like everything looks "obvious" when he plays but yet it is always he that is in the middle of it and executes it. Handles the puck away from the body which "extends" his puck-handling area and gives him more control against defenses.

Marner projects as a top 6 playmaking wing with elite skill, and quite likely that is going to be on the top line and 1st powerplay unit. In my opinion his instruction going forward should be to basically focus even more on what he is already naturally good at and develop it into elite tier at the highest levels of hockey. Which pretty much means the Patrick Kane routine - more focus on creating deception and the double-threat of shot and pass to break down more structured defenses, more focus on body-angling and puck protection which are already two of his strengths and more focus on bulking up, his thin frame being the only big weakness.

Developmental focus: Needs to fill out his frame for even better puck-protection at the next level, bigger frame should especially aid him in the defensive zone and wall play, although he probably will not ever excel at that physical aspect, bringing it up to an OK level is something he should look at. Other than that, continue working on his already naturally elite vision to create further separation from competition in that aspect.

Projection: 1st line forward with elite skill and vision and 1st PP unit

 

[DrJenniferHanson]

I was looking through your list (and several sentence descriptions) last year, and your premonitions of who the undervalued players were and how they've subsequently played out since-then/to-date were incredible.

You're not a professional in name or by title, but your substance registers that licence in my mind.

 

[NikF]

Thanks everyone for the kind words. I'll try to keep posting hockey related stuff in here, I appreciate all the support even if I don't thank everyone individually.

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

In on this. Respect your opinion a lot!

 

[Terrence]

Two A+ reports so far. Keep up the good work.

 

[Approved Variety]

Looking forward to the following:

Hanifin, Provorov, Kylington, Werenski, Strome.

After seeing Provorov in action, I'm struggling with him vs Hanifin. Also not sure what people see in Strome when they place him ahead of Marner.

Keep up the great work.

 

[NikF]

Dylan Strome

Offensive zone ability: A
Offensive transition ability: B
Puck movement and possession retention: A
Defensive transition ability: B-
Defensive zone ability: B

Defense: positional
Offense: heavily cerebral

Keywords, unique identity traits: vision, passing, puck-protection, size
Room for improvement: Skating, comfort-level with higher pace of the game

Full analysis
Dylan Strome is a classic big playmaking center. Really prototypical in the way he plays the game, almost vintage. To get a grasp on Strome as a prospect you really need to know three things and how they relate to him – vision, pace, and skating.

Strome is a patient playmaker with fantastic vision and solid puck-protection skills. He controls possession and looks for and finds open players in space. He likes to create by the goal-mouth, at either side of the post and sometimes parallel or even behind them, angling his body with the puck to find an open man in a scoring area. He does a good job at subtly moving the play towards scoring areas, rather than doing it by one great move or any displays of great athleticism or technical ability, Strome seems to do it by slowly gaining space and with patience.

His playmaking is really good in tight spaces, not in the sense that he stickhandles in a phone booth, but rather that his patience and composure allows him to delay an extra second and find an open man in a scoring area, so often his assists really come from a short distance from the edge of the scoring area into it. Although primarily a playmaker, Strome does have a good shot himself and can be a threat to score. He's a smart player and plays the game in a relatively simple and obvious way with plenty of patience with the puck on his stick.

His mobility is passable although he does have an awkward stride and isn't the fastest or the most agile player. With Strome I do have some concerns about his game other than skating, which is one of the most fixable aspects of a player. My primary concern with Strome is his pacing and I don't mean pacing as it relates to skating, but pacing in the sense that he is a bit slow with his body-overall and reaction times. It takes him a bit longer to react to something that is happening on the ice, so I'd say while his vision is fantastic and his understanding of the game is good, he does have a bit of a slower processor or rather his reaction time isn't at the highest level. Thus he is able to see things, but at times he appears lethargic in reacting to them. He seems to struggle when the pace of the game picks up and control is taken away from him which results in him being out of his comfort-zone.

At the junior level that isn't much of a problem since he can control the pace to his liking, but it is something to look for at the next level. Even then, there are players who excel at manipulating the pace of the game to their liking even at the highest levels of hockey, so if Strome retains that ability and improves his skating, he should be a great NHL player.

With defensive fundamentals Strome does show commitment, however he isn't a high-motor player nor is he a great skater so he can appear to be a bit slow to get into position occasionally. With Strome I think there is really a lot of room for improvement in various small things that could really improve his projectability at the pro-level, however his vision and puck-protection with size and a solid skill level already show the outlines of a classic top 6 playmaking center.

Development focus: Developmentally the most obvious room for improvement is in his skating ability, as well as general alertness and further development of his ability to react when the intensity and the pace of the game picks up. Right now it appears that he is slightly out of his comfort zone if he isn't controlling the play with the puck on his stick and at the pace he is used to.

Projection: Top 6 pro-sized playmaking center with vision and puck-protection, PP option, potential for #1 two-way C with both special teams

 

[Approved Variety]

Red flags with his skating and reaction speed. Thanks nki. I really hope Oil don't draft another fixer-upper skater/slow-down-the-play guy like Draisaitl.

 

[Zaddy]

Nice posts. Will check in this thread every now and then

 

[BakedBuffalo]

Really enjoyed the posts, keep up the good work

 

[NikF]

Thanks again everyone

Ivan Provorov

Offensive zone ability: B+
Offensive transition ability: B
Puck movement and possession retention: B+
Defensive transition ability: A-
Defensive zone ability: A

Defense: positional
Offense: cerebral

Keywords, unique identity traits: composure, closing down, controlling space
Room for improvement: offensive creativity might be a touch better, already considerably polished which leaves question marks as to how much room there is for growth

Full analysis:
Ivan Provorov is a defenseman that while not the tallest, has a sturdy frame and good mobility. One particular thing worth noting with Provorov is that he uses a very long stick which he does utilize well for reach and does not struggle with any of other regular elements like passing, shot, or puckhandling while using it. With his reach and close down ability, it is exceptionally hard for opposing forwards to enter Provorov's space as he literally takes up big chunks of ice away with his excellent positioning, mobility, and timing as to when to switch from positional defense to a more aggressive one and apply pressure to cause a turnover.

Provorov's skating is well above-average, especially his lateral mobility as he excels at tracking and closing down opposing forwards from the middle of the ice. Provorov does play the game physical and uses his body in all aspects, both board battles as well tracking and pushing the opposition to the outside. His biggest strength is precisely his defensive game, as he displays maturity that is beyond his years, with a game that is structured and fundamentally solid.

His defensive reads are top-notch, always keeps his head up and tracks people, consistently picks his man up, angles the play to the outside. Has good stick-check ability and great timing as to when to close down the attacking player, or when to staple someone to the boards in order to get the puck.

Breaking out of his zone he displays composure and ability to delay and re-evaluate his options, makes simple and solid break-out choices although he does display the ability to skate it out himself on the occasion.

Offensively he plays the game just as smartly as defensively, although displaying his skillset which is above-average, he does not rely on pure skill, rather makes heady decisions as to when to come in back-door, when to pinch, when to walk the line towards the middle or rim it around the boards. Despite his oversized stick, he has a good shot that he gets on net with regularity be it a slapper from the point or in less stationary situations.

His disposition is composed, confident and heady. Although capable, does not wow you with his technical skills, instead preferring to play the game that is already resembling pro-structure and rarely seen at the junior level. Watching him play you certainly marvel at his positioning, smarts, and compete level as he is easily projectable to the next level.

Have zero question marks with Provorov in regards to his on-ice ability, the question worth asking with Provorov is a bit more philosophical. Since he is already so polished, it is hard to say how much upside he does have left to improve on compared to perhaps some more athletically or technically gifted prospects that aren't quite as polished yet, but that could also be viewed in reverse so it's not a big thing, just something worth considering.

Nonetheless, I would consider Provorov a very safe pick to be an NHL defenseman in some capacity, a top 4 two-way defensman is a decent projection for him I think. Not a guy who necessarily is going to blow your shoes off with elaborate stickhandling and skating, but rather a defensive wall who is a plus player in all three zones and a solid if unspectacular puck-mover. Whether he does have quite enough puck-ability and offensive upside to be a number one defenseman I do not know, but it is safe to say that every team would love to add a defensive prospect of Provorov's calibre

Development focus: Doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, so just a natural progression in all aspects as it goes for all prospects. Might want to experiment with allowing himself to do more things with the puck offensively, perhaps adding a bit of deception and build his comfort zone to play with more creativity.

Projection: chance at being a #1 two-way defenseman, both a PK and PP option, might end up a #2

 

[NikF]

Connor McDavid

Offensive zone ability: A
Offensive transition ability: A+
Puck movement and possession retention: A
Defensive transition ability: A-
Defensive zone ability: B+

Defense: positional
Offense: mixed

Keywords, unique identity traits: hockey IQ, skill, vision
Room for improvement: Fill out the frame at the pro-level of fitness, long-range shooting

Full analysis:
What to say about McDavid, against junior competition he looks dominant, almost too dominant for his own sake as at times it seems even his own teammates cannot process the game at the same speed and with the same savviness McDavid does.

Has elite speed and stickhandling, extremely fluid on his skates, the stride does not look choppy but instead smooth almost effortless and yet he seems to blow by his opposition with ease. Top notch mobility, changes angles and adjusts speed depending on the play he's going for with ease. Has both dimensions where he will either explode past a checker by utilizing his acceleration, or slow down and use his angling and elite hands to gain time and space to make a play, both with equal proficiency, thus he has the straight-ahead power capability of typical intense-straight line forwards as well as the composure and patience of typical playmaking and cerebral forwards.

This multi-dimensionality should make him hard to defend both passively positionally or aggressively physically. His elite vision will break down passive positional defenses, while playing him aggressively one-on-one can be broken down with his speed and elite stickhandling.

On his skates he has a low centre of gravity that allows him to fight off checks, he doesn't have a huge frame but uses leverage to maintain body position against checking. While that serves his puck protection all over the ice, it comes in especially handy at the boards against bigger players, where he is still able to keep possession of the puck with angling and leverage and then use his vision to make a play off it to his teammate. That low center of gravity, body angling, and leverage is especially important for average sized and below players at the next level as it allows them to keep a semblance of a puck-protection game even against bigger and stronger pro players which in turn doesn't reduce them to a purely up-and-down off-the-rush players.

McDavid likes to change speeds to open up angles, can blow by guys or slow it down to make a play off the space that just opened up, often both on the same shift as he uses the former to gain entry and the latter to set-up in the zone, all the while displaying his elite stickhandling ability that allows for control even at top speeds.

In traffic he is very adept at creating with minimal time, by processing the game quicker than the opposition and combining that with his mobility, low centre of gravity, technical skills, and vision, he easily takes advantage of the play in tight, creating the space and then exploiting it. Is extremely adept at taking advantage of developing "soft spots" both with the puck on his stick where he will either make passes into them or skate the puck into the space himself, or without the puck with his positioning as he reads the space extremely well and positions himself in the "soft spots" as an available option for a pass.

Has that quality where 50-50 pucks tend to end up on his stick more often than not, bouncing pucks, swatting pucks mid-air, getting it out of his or someone else's feet etc. with some players it just seems like they get those bounces and McDavid certainly has that quality to him.

Shifty, has a start-stop and gear change ability that backs off defenses and utilizes his vision and elite technical skills to create off the gained space. The only obvious area that isn't elite for a prospect is his shot, which has room for improvement. Projects as a 1st line center with elite skill level and vision.

Developmental focus: Most obviously his shot from distance, which is just about the only thing that isn't elite. Other than that, just the things that come with maturity - getting to the pro-level fitness of 20 year olds, faceoffs etc.

Projection: Franchise forward, 1st line center, 1st PP unit, PK option (PK might be a waste of his minutes though depending on your deployment philosophy)

 

[King'sPawn]

Fantastic work, nki. Looking forward to reading more of your thoughts on the prospects!