Proposal: NJ/NSH at the draft

[herzausstein]

Ironically Saros and Schneider have had very similar careers up to this point.

Behind star goalies early, getting into 1B roles and dominating before finally taking over the Starting job in a shortened season in their mid 20s.

Then 3 years of dominance a a starter. into the late 30s.

Schneider fell off at 30 due to injuries and other factors. Hopefully the same doesn't happen to Saros.

I dont think itll be injury issues that hamper Saros but i do think with his smaller stature he has to rely on his speed on positioning alot more. I dont think he will be able to carry his performance into his later 30s like some goalies do but years 30-35 should be a pretty decent bet. But as he slows down, it will become an issue. Personally if nashville extends him, i dont want more than 5 years

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

NJ is likely willing to offer a degree of term that Nashville isn’t - because Askarov is more of a sure thing in their future than any of the Devils’ kids are in theirs. Nashville does have a long term plan of Askarov being #1 and they won’t want to have him play backup for 7 more years to get there. If Saros wants to be a starter for the next seven years, that is likelier in New Jersey than it is in Nashville and he knows that.

A lot of Nashville fans seem to assume he’ll happily sign a deal with a team that is already planning to phase him out as he ages. I am unconvinced that’s anything more than cope. He’s a competitor and he would rather be in a situation where he’s the go-to guy indefinitely than one in which the writing is already on the wall about his reduction in prominence.

The timelines just don't line up wrt to Askarov. He's not as sure a thing as folks on a board like this one tend to assume. There is a lot of overrating/high expectations attached to prospects here, which just isn't how real life NHL general managers look at those things. The Preds are competitive right now as a playoff team, and will want to continue to be so in the next few years, which is a timeline that just doesn't line up with Askarov being ready to supplant Saros.

It's going to be the next Expansion Draft which eventually forces Nashville's hand on a goalie decision - *if* Askarov continues to progress as hoped. However, the Preds will have to make a decision on Saros' contract before any of that. And that's purely going to come down to the terms that Saros is looking for. Not so much in years (8 years will be fine for the Preds), but rather just in $$$ and protection clauses. Because one thing the Preds won't be able to give him is a NMC. I don't think any of us fans can predict how important that NMC will be to Saros. No team should really give him 8x$10M with a full NMC. Nashville won't, but neither should NJ. Anyway, the final negotiating stances between the two sides won't be firmed up until after the 2024 Draft, so it's not realistic to be talking about the #10 OA draft pick as one of the components of any trade. And the Devils may wish to make their goaltending move sooner. So that's another area where the timelines just don't line up.

 

[Smitty426]

Even if you want to argue he’ll get less than Hellebuyck and Sorokin, Markstrom got 6 years/6m and Grubauer got 6 years/5.9m a few years ago under a frozen cap.

Sorry, a guy like Jarry gets 5 years, not Saros. He’ll get more.

Fitz has been pretty good with contracts (Palat was a pnic move for sure, Hamilton I think was necessary to get aFA here) Jack, Nico, Bratt, Timo all less than expected. He's pinned down a bit but Saros & Ullmark other than a yr are the #s that off, just checked they are not?

 

[jumb0]

Oh yay. This topic again.

 

[HBK27]

The timelines just don't line up wrt to Askarov. He's not as sure a thing as folks on a board like this one tend to assume. There is a lot of overrating/high expectations attached to prospects here, which just isn't how real life NHL general managers look at those things. The Preds are competitive right now as a playoff team, and will want to continue to be so in the next few years, which is a timeline that just doesn't line up with Askarov being ready to supplant Saros.

It's going to be the next Expansion Draft which eventually forces Nashville's hand on a goalie decision - *if* Askarov continues to progress as hoped. However, the Preds will have to make a decision on Saros' contract before any of that. And that's purely going to come down to the terms that Saros is looking for. Not so much in years (8 years will be fine for the Preds), but rather just in $$$ and protection clauses. Because one thing the Preds won't be able to give him is a NMC. I don't think any of us fans can predict how important that NMC will be to Saros. No team should really give him 8x$10M with a full NMC. Nashville won't, but neither should NJ. Anyway, the final negotiating stances between the two sides won't be firmed up until after the 2024 Draft, so it's not realistic to be talking about the #10 OA draft pick as one of the components of any trade. And the Devils may wish to make their goaltending move sooner. So that's another area where the timelines just don't line up.

You don't have to give him a NMC for the full duration of the contract.

Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Sorokin, Bobrovsky & Ullmark all got contracts that started with NMC's that eventually transitioned to NTC's.

With expansion clearly on the horizon, I would be surprised if Saros didn't push for a NMC for at least some years in his next contract to protect against being exposed in an expansion draft. Have to figure he gets a NMC for at least the first 3-4 years of any extension.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Oh yay. This topic again.

No Alexander Holtz this time at least...yet.

 

[Aoko]

The Devils tried this with one Cory Schneider many moons ago. It didn't work out.

Saros is a much better get. The Devils should do this if Cole Eiserman or Tij Iginla are off the board when they're about to select.

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

Aww yeah It's time for Cory Schneider to be massively underrated again by a shitton of people.

So i'll get it out of the way now.

1st in SV%, 1st in GAA, 2nd in GSAx/60, 4th in overall GSAx in the 3 years prior to the trade.

Was absolutely HIM for 6 yearsView attachment 854271

The Devils tried this with one Cory Schneider many moons ago. It didn't work out.

Saros is a much better get. The Devils should do this if Cole Eiserman or Tij Iginla are off the board when they're about to select.

it didnt work out because the rest of the roster was trash.

See above. Schneider was an elite player immediately before and immediately after the trade. If this Devils team got .920 Cory Schneider, they'd be one of the best teams in the league.

 

[Aoko]

it didnt work out because the rest of the roster was trash.

See above. Schneider was an elite player immediately before and immediately after the trade. If this Devils team got .920 Cory Schneider, they'd be one of the best teams in the league.

With their defense the way it currently is? I have reservations about that. Hughes and Nemec still need time to mature before that conversation evolves into anything beyond fantasy.

A goalie is their top need, but also their only flaw? Let's be honest... it isn't going to transform this Devils team into a juggernaut overnight.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

10th overall pick is nice and all but Saros is among the best goalies in the league. surely NJ could afford more.
Id prob want 10th overall + good prospect + roster player and maybe even a 2nd as well.

I also dont think NJ would be interested in acquiring him at that point just yet. I think July 1st would make alot more sense since you could do a sign and trade.

seems risky for NJ that early

 

[Aoko]

10th overall pick is nice and all but Saros is among the best goalies in the league. surely NJ could afford more.
Id prob want 10th overall + good prospect + roster player and maybe even a 2nd as well.

I also dont think NJ would be interested in acquiring him at that point just yet. I think July 1st would make alot more sense since you could do a sign and trade.

seems risky for NJ that early

A goalie with one year left on their contract, commanding that kind of return. I had no idea that Saros was in the GOAT conversation, holy.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

A goalie with one year left on their contract, commanding that kind of return. I had no idea that Saros was in the GOAT conversation, holy.

obviously assuming he extends. a sign and trade. also said it makes more sense July 1st or after so u can make sure hes extending before making a trade
but yeah if I was Nashville I think Id rather just extend him myself. so I would want what I feel is worth it and would prob want an overpay. also not expecting a big roster player back. but a warm body

 

[dgibb10]

With their defense the way it currently is? I have reservations about that. Hughes and Nemec still need time to mature before that conversation evolves into anything beyond fantasy.

A goalie is their top need, but also their only flaw? Let's be honest... it isn't going to transform this Devils team into a juggernaut overnight.

I think NJD COULD become an elite defensive team again without making changes, but it requires a lot to go right.

Dougie healthy and playing like he did in 22-23.
Siegs and Marino return to the level of play they had in 22-23
Bahl develops into what he was looking like he could become towards the end of 22-23
Luke and Nemec develop as hoped.

Imo in that case, without making any changes, Luke Nemec Bahl would be an improvement on the Severson Smith Graves and the defensive core that was elite in 22-23. But you are relying on a lot to go right with development, health, and just improvements in play by Siegs & Marino.

So I'd want NJD to bring in a quality top 4LD and move bahl to 7D

 

[tmg]

The Devils tried this with one Cory Schneider many moons ago. It didn't work out.

Schneider was great for the devils for a few years. All that didn’t work out is that the team in front was nowhere near ready to compete (and the extra wins Schneider delivered kept them out of the early-pick basement and impaired and delayed their rebuild), and then eventually injury became the issue.

If the Devils could give their 1st for a goalie and know he’d play as well as Schneider did for his first few years as a Devil? They’d take that.

 

[Aoko]

obviously assuming he extends. a sign and trade. also said it makes more sense July 1st or after so u can make sure hes extending before making a trade
but yeah if I was Nashville I think Id rather just extend him myself. so I would want what I feel is worth it and would prob want an overpay. also not expecting a big roster player back. but a warm body

But then the trade just falls apart since you won't be trading away Nashville's preferred prospect at 10th overall. You'd be trading away whoever the Devils liked at that time. If that trade you suggested were to happen, it would have to occur at the draft. And at that point, I think the Devils will shop elsewhere. Or they'll take another year of mediocre goalies and pay Saros in next year's offseason if he's available. Which he should be if his ask is north of 8M per year.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

With their defense the way it currently is? I have reservations about that. Hughes and Nemec still need time to mature before that conversation evolves into anything beyond fantasy.

A goalie is their top need, but also their only flaw? Let's be honest... it isn't going to transform this Devils team into a juggernaut overnight.

The defense will very quickly become a strength. It was basically unprecedented to have two 20 year olds, one being 19 when the year started, in such big roles for most of the year. They obviously need time to become elite, but I don’t see it being very long. I’d bet on one of them taking a massive leap as soon as next year. Plus they get their number 1 D back.

 

[Aoko]

Schneider was great for the devils for a few years. All that didn’t work out is that the team in front was nowhere near ready to compete (and the extra wins Schneider delivered kept them out of the early-pick basement and impaired and delayed their rebuild), and then eventually injury became the issue.

If the Devils could give their 1st for a goalie and know he’d play as well as Schneider did for his first few years as a Devil? They’d take that.

Indeed. And who mortgages their future when they are rebuilding for a flash in the pan goaltender when the rest of your team isn't fit to bill? It made no sense acquiring a goalie like Schneider at that time, by no fault of his. Now is the time you think about acquiring a goalie like that.

I do think the Devils need to consider parting ways with one of their overpaid wingers. Palat would be one I'd be looking hard at.

 

[dgibb10]

Schneider was great for the devils for a few years. All that didn’t work out is that the team in front was nowhere near ready to compete (and the extra wins Schneider delivered kept them out of the early-pick basement and impaired and delayed their rebuild), and then eventually injury became the issue.

If the Devils could give their 1st for a goalie and know he’d play as well as Schneider did for his first few years as a Devil? They’d take that.

oh 100% if we could get cory schneider's level of play that would be so worth it. But I don't think you could pick any goalie in the NHL and guarantee that over the next 3 years, they'd produce top 3 results. Maybe shesterkin but that's about it.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

But then the trade just falls apart since you won't be trading away Nashville's preferred prospect at 10th overall. You'd be trading away whoever the Devils liked at that time. If that trade you suggested were to happen, it would have to occur at the draft. And at that point, I think the Devils will shop elsewhere. Or they'll take another year of mediocre goalies and pay Saros in next year's offseason if he's available. Which he should be if his ask is north of 8M per year.

yeah I get that. but u run into risk of losing him in 1 year to free agency

I personally would likely rather keep the 10th overall and try to acquire a top goalie using other pieces first.
or focus on someone else if there's a chance Saros just walks.

gotta get a long term option if ur giving up a top 10 pick imo

 

[Zajacs Bowl Cut]

With their defense the way it currently is? I have reservations about that. Hughes and Nemec still need time to mature before that conversation evolves into anything beyond fantasy.

A goalie is their top need, but also their only flaw? Let's be honest... it isn't going to transform this Devils team into a juggernaut overnight.

it isnt their only flaw. They need another LHD that can defend. But they have a lot of talented players.

A structured system and a reliable goaltender are their 2 biggest flaws. Need to nail both.

 

[dgibb10]

it isnt their only flaw. They need another LHD that can defend. But they have a lot of talented players.

A structured system and a reliable goaltender are their 2 biggest flaws. Need to nail both.

Bottom 6 needs improvement too although just staying healthy should help with that and keep AHLers/14th forwards out of the lineup.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

You don't have to give him a NMC for the full duration of the contract.

Vasilevskiy, Hellebuyck, Sorokin, Bobrovsky & Ullmark all got contracts that started with NMC's that eventually transitioned to NTC's.

With expansion clearly on the horizon, I would be surprised if Saros didn't push for a NMC for at least some years in his next contract to protect against being exposed in an expansion draft. Have to figure he gets a NMC for at least the first 3-4 years of any extension.

Well I don't know when Expansion will happen, maybe NHL managers will have a better idea, but there is no scenario in which the Preds can risk being forced to expose (or trade under duress) one of Saros/Askarov. At least not now. Maybe if Saros drops off or Askarov busts that concern will evaporate. But as of today, it's not a risk the Preds would sign up for. My expectation is that Expansion happens inside of 3-4 years, but who knows.

Saros can push for a NMC if he wants... but it will be somewhat self-defeating, because if his goal is to not be traded out of Nashville, then asking for a NMC will be much more likely to result in him being traded out of Nashville.

 

[Smitty426]

Oh yay. This topic again.

Again, its been our whole year!

The defense will very quickly become a strength. It was basically unprecedented to have two 20 year olds, one being 19 when the year started, in such big roles for most of the year. They obviously need time to become elite, but I don’t see it being very long. I’d bet on one of them taking a massive leap as soon as next year. Plus they get their number 1 D back.

this D as constructed wont be ready for 2 years to compete deep into the playoffs

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

this D as constructed wont be ready for 2 years to compete deep into the playoffs

I definitely don’t agree. Nemec will already be overqualified for the role he has next year with Dougie back. That bumps Marino to the 3rd pairing. Luke broke through the rookie wall and put together a fine season. I think they’ll be solid without a single addition, and potentially very good with the right move.

 

[HBK27]

Well I don't know when Expansion will happen, maybe NHL managers will have a better idea, but there is no scenario in which the Preds can risk being forced to expose (or trade under duress) one of Saros/Askarov. At least not now. Maybe if Saros drops off or Askarov busts that concern will evaporate. But as of today, it's not a risk the Preds would sign up for. My expectation is that Expansion happens inside of 3-4 years, but who knows.

Saros can push for a NMC if he wants... but it will be somewhat self-defeating, because if his goal is to not be traded out of Nashville, then asking for a NMC will be much more likely to result in him being traded out of Nashville.

I agree that expansion is unfortunately highly likely in the next 3-4 years.

I'm sure Saros probably would love to stay in Nashville (great city that players seem to enjoy), but the NMC is not solely about staying in the current location, but having a say in where you do go if it is time to move on. That's a huge risk on Saros' part to open yourself up to having to move to some still unknown city a few years down the line as part of an expansion draft when nearly every other top player in the league at their position gets that type of protection.

I'd be very surprised if he extended without any NMC, but I guess we'll see...