Nikita Zaitsev - A Monthly Glance

[Cor]

So, most of you are likely to be aware of different charts that put players performance in one of 4 quadrants, Good, Bad, Dull and Fun. I am bored, so I decided to take a game by game, monthly look at how his play classified into 6 quadrants. Bad, Bad Dull, Bad Fun, Good, Good Dull, & Good Fun.

The charts I am using can be found at Evolving-Hockey and they measure Zaitsev's on ice xGF/xGA per 60 (at EV)

Here's what I found.

October:
Good- 1
Good Fun- 2
Good Dull- 1
Bad Fun-
Bad Dull- 3
Bad- 5

November:
Good- 3
Good Fun- 2
Good Dull- 4
Bad Fun-
Bad Dull- 2
Bad- 3

December:
Good-
Good Fun- 2
Good Dull- 1
Bad Fun- 1
Bad Dull-
Bad- 2

What do we take away from this information?

Well from a pure analytic point of view, Zaitsev was absolutely awful in October. That was the sort of month where Dubas was probably on his phone looking for a buyer. However, since then, Zaitsev has been fairly respectable. Not elite by any means, however he's settled in to being what he is, a defensive minded 2nd pairing defender, that the majority of games will have a positive impact when he's on the ice. It's actually pretty staggering the affect the month of October has on his overall analytic line.

Now, this is from a xGF vs xGA point of view, so it doesn't necessarily tell the entire story, but if I had to pick a stat to use on a game to game basis, this is probably it. Something to consider is that Nikita Zaitsev starts in the offensive zone the least and defensive zone the most among our regular d-men. So his xGF/xGA would be lower than others due to that, so it's easier for him to have a "bad" game then someone like, Travis Dermott, who starts in the offensive zone quiet a bit.

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[Jozay]

If he could make a pass, that'd be great.

 

[Paradoc]

If he could make a pass, that'd be great.

Yup. He is really bad at exiting the zone and the reason is that his outlet pass and decision making is not good. He often skates himself into bad situations when he is against heavy forecheck (Minnesota, Boston) and paired with Gardiner who is also very conservative against said scenario means that our possession game is basically boomed when they are on the ice. Although Gardiner is getting better and has a much better transition game via his elusive skating style. Zaitsev needs to get better or he will find himself on the market soon enough given our cap situation.

 

[MattySnipes]

Inability to pass or exit zone with a pass is frustrating. Consistently icing or dumping.

 

[Mr Hockey]

I would like to see him with another D partner, I don't think anyone knows what Jake is going to do out there at any given moment. I think a more stable partner would be best for Zaitsev.

 

[Cor]

Yup. He is really bad at exiting the zone and the reason is that his outlet pass and decision making is not good. He often skates himself into bad situations when he is against heavy forecheck (Minnesota, Boston) and paired with Gardiner who is also very conservative against said scenario means that our possession game is basically boomed when they are on the ice. Although Gardiner is getting better and has a much better transition game via his elusive skating style. Zaitsev needs to get better or he will find himself on the market soon enough given our cap situation.

I'm interested to see Zaitsev with Dermott, who is one of our better zone exit players IIRC. Zaitsev shouldn't be the guy moving the puck out of the zone, and I'm not surprised Zaitsev's growth in quality from October to Nov/Dec correlates with Gardiner's improvement in the zone exit department. I know Gardiner was horribly awful in October in that regard.

I would like to see him with another D partner, I don't think anyone knows what Jake is going to do out there at any given moment. I think a more stable partner would be best for Zaitsev.

During my research, I saw that Zaitsev has played like 86 or 87% of his EV ice time with Gardiner.

We haven't really seen him with anyone besides Gardiner since his rookie year, so I'd be curious to see him beside Rielly again or Dermott.

Now is the time to try different combo's. We need to get an idea of whether Zaitsev can mesh well with Dermott or Rielly moving forward, because if not, we likely need to look at trading him

 

[Nithoniniel]

I'm interested in seeing where Zaitsev grows. Anyone that saw him a lot before he came over will probably agree with me that he hasn't translated his game here at all. His outlet passing was beautiful in every game I watched before that. Worst case scenario and the most realistic scenario are in my opinion the same, that Zaitsev simply can't process the game fast enough to be able to do his thing at the NHL level.

 

[X66]

Zaitsev and Hainsey hold the team back from their true potential at 5 on 5, but I can see the team being patient with addressing this, much like how Winnipeg never rushed to build their Dmen.

Zaitsev has all the tools to be a solid Dman but he just can't put it together.

It's getting to the point now that when ever he has the puck on his stick I don't expect anything good. Whether it be a breakout or in the offensive zone.

When Zaitsev has the puck at the point and tries to take a shot I already know that shot is either getting blocked or going way wide(mostly blocked though). He is not a threat at all offensively after his rookie season.

 

[Menzinger]

I'm interested in seeing where Zaitsev grows. Anyone that saw him a lot before he came over will probably agree with me that he hasn't translated his game here at all. His outlet passing was beautiful in every game I watched before that. Worst case scenario and the most realistic scenario are in my opinion the same, that Zaitsev simply can't process the game fast enough to be able to do his thing at the NHL level.

Given his age how much “growth” can be realistically expected though?

I guess I have a lot more patience if he was like 22, instead of being 27 (3 years older than Rielly).

 

[DarkKnight]

With Zaitsev it's all about confidence, as Babs had noted he can be too hard on himself. A few games ago he was confidently skating the puck up ice like he did his fist season, it's there. Unfortunately, a lot of the time he panics under pressure and just throws blind passes up the wall.

Defensively he's been very good of late, he was awesome against TB too.

 

[ShaneFalco]

He needs to be traded
4.5 for him doesn't cut it

 

[Griffin76]

I don't have any problem with Zaitsev's game except when he's trying to exit the zone with the puck. People constantly crap on the guy for every little thing and it's usually the Gardiner fanboys that do it. They try to deflect the blame away from Gardiner. I'm not saying that it's always Gardiner and never Zaitsev.

I don't know if it's that he can't think the game fast enough or that he's thinking too much because of the speed of the NHL. I'm sure he's been warned about the speed of the league being so much faster than anything he's played before. Maybe that's just gone to his head. I think when he first got here he just played and didn't think too much about it letting his natural abilities take over. Teams started to make adjustments against him and he's panicked. I think he would be fine if he just slowed things down and played a simple game.

 

[Once]

The tables seem right. He looked brutal in October but has been better since. He can shut down a cycle and at times is hard to play against in front of the net. He is always matched against the high quality left wingers like Ovechkin, Laine, Stammer, etc and seems to do well in that role.

The problem is when he has the puck he handles it like a grenade. His shot selection is very poor.

 

[Griffin76]

Given his age how much “growth” can be realistically expected though?

I guess I have a lot more patience if he was like 22, instead of being 27 (3 years older than Rielly).

But in his defense he really only has 2 full years in the league. I think the growth will be how he adjusts over the rest of this season. He was good in his first year. He was bad for the majority of his second year which wasn't a full season. And this year he's been good more than he's been bad.

 

[justafan22]

trade him now before his NTC kicks in

 

[LeafSteel]

Too boring of a three.

You should have at least inserted a pic of his mom from the Mom’s trip to keep things interesting.......

Seriously though, well done. Zaitsev is still evolving and he had a pretty tumultuous season last season to really have any consistent development.

 

[thewave]

Fake top 4D is being insulated by real top 2D. Should be traded or exposed to expansion draft.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Yeah it illustrates how Babcock uses pretty well.

I do agree the outlet passing needs to improve, but he's not some guy we just found walking around Russia that needs to be moved at all cost.

He needs a role change - and for all the proposals for Pietrangelo, Parakyo or whom ever, we really need another D-man that Babs trust to match up and to use on the PK who isn't Marincin.

 

[Rare Jewel]

uring my research, I saw that Zaitsev has played like 86 or 87% of his EV ice time with Gardiner.

We haven't really seen him with anyone besides Gardiner since his rookie year, so I'd be curious to see him beside Rielly again or Dermott.

Now is the time to try different combo's. We need to get an idea of whether Zaitsev can mesh well with Dermott or Rielly moving forward, because if not, we likely need to look at trading him

Rielly and Zaitsev is one I'd like to see again. When they were together last Rielly wasn't playing like he is now and Zaitsev was getting use to the N.A rink. Also they were playing behind a bunch of rookies pretty much.

 

[thewave]

Rielly and Zaitsev is one I'd like to see again. When they were together last Rielly wasn't playing like he is now and Zaitsev was getting use to the N.A rink. Also they were playing behind a bunch of rookies pretty much.

Why? It was a disaster the first time and it forced Babcock to switch it up. I don't miss -30 Morgan Rielly and -35 Z. Jake is a king of making EXCEPTIONAL DEFENSE look kinda haphazard, but he keeps Z in check so despite all the complaining by people that don't get it around here, I am fine with that.

 

[SprDaVE]

Just simply overpaid and the term is really bad. I doubt he'll be much more than this and you can find what he does for a lot cheaper, or at least more efficient. If he was paid closer to 3M ish, I think it would be a whole lot better.

This is one of Dubas' task in the next couple months.

 

[hockeyes]

Gardiner is a good player outside of his patented brain farts on occasion and will be a big hole when he undoubtedly walks this summer. I do not buy the theory that he is at all responsible for Zaitsev's play. Maybe Zaitsev would be better with someone else but that's a knock on him and not Gardiner imo.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Why? It was a disaster the first time and it forced Babcock to switch it up. I don't miss -30 Morgan Rielly and -35 Z. Jake is a king of making EXCEPTIONAL DEFENSE look kinda haphazard, but he keeps Z in check so despite all the complaining by people that don't get it around here, I am fine with that.

Well good, I'd look at other options. As along as our 2nd highest paid D-man is not preforming up to his contract thus making very hard to move him (if that's the camp you're in) as well as allowing the amount shots that we do give up, they (Babs/Smith) should flexible with other ideas.

I'm not sure if Rielly/Zaitsev will work, but given some of the circumstances of when they were last together there's reasons why it may now.

 

[thewave]

Well good, I'd look at other options. As along as our 2nd highest paid D-man is not preforming up to his contract thus making very hard to move him (if that's the camp you're in) as well as allowing the amount shots that we do give up, they (Babs/Smith) should flexible with other ideas.

I'm not sure if Rielly/Zaitsev will work, but given some of the circumstances of when they were last together there's reasons why it may now.

I would rather just slyly trade Z right now in a package while he looks to be ok statistically. A sucker is born every minute and some of those suckers grow up to be GMs.

 

[Rare Jewel]

I would rather just slyly trade Z right now in a package while he looks to be ok statistically. A sucker is born every minute and some of those suckers grow up to be GMs.

Or... let's get his Dzs down to about 52% with Rielly, perhaps even 2nd unit PP give him a chance to start producing then maybe it's easier to move him if that's the way they want to go.

On other side of it - moving Hainsey away for Rielly now may also beneficial.