Confirmed with Link: Nick Leddy signed by Blues (4/$16m)

[BlueDream]

According to who exactly is this below market exactly? Because the genera consensus I can find is “The Blues really needed to get either less years or less pay”, at least outside of Blues fans. It wasn’t the worst contract signed yesterday, but it’s certainly one that isn’t being considered good value.

Also, it’s super weird people keep using Leddy as a comparable to Bouwmeester. He is nowhere close to as smart of a defender, nor does he have the sheer size that Jay had. He’s a decent puck mover out of the defensive zone but doesn’t have the creativity you really would want to be a Powerplay QB, so he is usually floating in the 15-20 point run he gets at even strength. He can play top 4, but he’s never someone you want to be the best player on a defensive pair in said top 4. His game can be covered by superior partners and can blend in the position, but left to his own devices he fits more as “vet member of a 3rd pair”.

Basically, the comp for Leddy isn’t Bouw, it’s Gunnar. Which is a useful player, but not something that moves the needle in a meaningful way.

Gunnarsson's goal in the Stanley Cup has caused fans to way overrate the guy ever since. Before that playoff run, most people didn't want him in the lineup full-time and a lot wanted him traded.

Nick Leddy has played top 4 minutes on teams that made deep playoff runs and did so while putting up 30+ points a season.

Carl Gunnarsson, starting in 2018, was a part-time player for the Blues. He hadn't been a starter since 2017. He was a bottom pairing guy at best, was slow and had trouble staying healthy, and had no offensive skills. He played decent positional defense but Leddy is WAY better and has had a way better career, and it isn't close. Gunnarsson's comparable on the current team, in terms of skill level, would be closer to Mikkola or even Bortuzzo.

It's kind of funny to see everyone's opinion on Gunnarsson change. You guys are convincing yourselves he was a different player.

 

[Novacain]

He signed for less than Chiarot and same as Gudbrandson. That is below market in my eyes, as he is preferable to both.

Saying “this contract is slightly better then the 2 worst free agent contracts given out this off-season” isn’t as encouraging as you think it is. If anything, it just doubles into “we’d have been better off just trading off some forward depth to fill the LHD hole”.

Now we are locked into a contract that has a decent chance to be another Scandella, and have 23.5 Million locked up for 4 years on our current top 4, all between the ages of 29-31. That might be fine if our defense was a strength, but it isn’t. It’s solid, sure, but nobody is reasonably saying it’s a top 10 Defense in the league, and I think you could argue it isn’t top half. Now, imagine, how good do you think that core group is going to be 2-3 years down the line, because in the modern NHL, expecting players to stay top level past 30 isn’t easy. The line between this D being solid and this D being really not solid is pretty thin at the moment. And if we ever cross that line, we are still stuck paying them. Which is a problem when it can be argued it’s been multiple years since at least a couple of them were having there best seasons.

Basically, this D is now a time bomb. This version right now is as good as these guys are going to get, and the decline is approaching. We just don’t know when it hits. Maybe we get lucky and 2-3 of these guys are good all the way till 35. Or maybe Parayko goes the way of Vlasic, Krug ages like most under sized defensemen usually do, and Leddy just faded to a 6th D role, for example. If that happens, our contention window is closed, no matter how good our forwards are. So, with this defense. We have to be a win now team. There is no other options.

Which makes the fact we didn’t figure out a way to keep Perron at more then reasonable money even more absurd, but I don’t want to go into that again.

 

[GoldenSeal]

Watch Army trade trash for something wonderful again.

 

[joe galiba]

I think Leddy should age well, just like Bo
very good skater, plays defense with his feet as opposed to constantly banging so his skating shouldn't fall off much if at all
Bo was one of the best dozen or so defensemen in the world for a decade and Leddy is not near that level of player, but he plays a similar style

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I really don’t think this contract is going to age well.

 

[Blueston]

I really don’t think this contract is going to age well.

Almost no contract signed by guy over 30 ages well. You gotta hold your nose and do the best you can with them sometimes if you want to contend.

 

[smalt021]

 

[Linkens Mastery]

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Now compare that deal with Chiarot....

 

[BlueDream]

Now compare that deal with Chiarot....

That's what I don't understand. The advanced stats people said Leddy was going to be the worst d-man acquisition at the deadline. He wasn't.

Now they're saying this, so I don't put much stock into it. My eye test tells me he's better than whatever the heck they are looking at.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

That's what I don't understand. The advanced stats people said Leddy was going to be the worst d-man acquisition at the deadline. He wasn't.

Now they're saying this, so I don't put much stock into it. My eye test tells me he's better than whatever the heck they are looking at.

Agreed. We don't need Leddy to be some all mighty defensive stalwart. We need him to cover for Parayko's deficiencies, aka transitioning the puck out of the zone.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Now compare that deal with Chiarot....

Shit, compare it to Gudbranson.

That's what I don't understand. The advanced stats people said Leddy was going to be the worst d-man acquisition at the deadline. He wasn't.

Now they're saying this, so I don't put much stock into it. My eye test tells me he's better than whatever the heck they are looking at.

About 1 week after the playoffs end, we all have our minds wiped and go back to old opinions. It's one reason why many here after realizing in the playoffs we needed better transition on the back-end pivoted back to wanting size on defense. Some models have their worth, but I think many right now don't properly value transition. Simply going from point A to point B and having a very high success rate. It's almost described as a negative in scouting reports, where the context is that's all they do, but that's a huge skill for the 2nd and 3rd pairs.

 

[Davimir Tarablad]

Now compare that deal with Chiarot....

Gudbranson's is even worse, he's never broken 20pts in a season for his career.

 

[Eldon Reid]

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Well if Gudbranson got 4 mill for 4 years and Chiarot got 4.75 AAV

Was their one site saying Leddy was going to get 5+ mill AAV if he went to free agency.

 

[BadgersandBlues]

Advanced metrics for defenseman are about the worst set of advanced metrics there are in all of sports. I don't think anyone should put much stock into them. There's a chance Leddy becomes Scandella 2.0. But there was also no one else seemingly available that could play Top 4 D. I'd rather have Leddy then Gudbrandson or Chariot lol.

 

[Ranksu]

I really don’t think this contract is going to age well.

He will hit the wall coming season. So we have 2-3 dmens who can't play needed level to be top6.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

He will hit the wall coming season. So we have 2-3 dmens who can't play needed level to be top6.

Oh tell us what else is in your magic ball. Do we get Tkachuk? Does Thomas live up to his contract? Does Husso get exposed in the DRW system and his contract turn into hindrance? Dues Perron score at around a PPG while being surrounded by inferior talent?

 

[Reality Czech]

That's what I don't understand. The advanced stats people said Leddy was going to be the worst d-man acquisition at the deadline. He wasn't.

Now they're saying this, so I don't put much stock into it. My eye test tells me he's better than whatever the heck they are looking at.

I would love to see advanced stats on how often advanced stats are wrong or misleading. I bet it's a lot.

 

[Bluesnatic27]

I would love to see advanced stats on how often advanced stats are wrong or misleading. I bet it's a lot.

It’s not.

What is misleading are people who read the stats, don’t know what they mean, and trumpet them around.

Now I can tell you that the eye test, memory, and personal bias are proven wrong and misleading more often than a recorded number.

 

[Xanadude]

I was super pissed when traded for Leddy due to his abysmal performance in Detroit, but I (and many others) ignored one advanced stat he scored well in: zone exits. Even in Detroit, where his game was tanking, he was extremely good at getting pucks out of the defensive zone.

Lo and behold, when partnered with Parayko, an elite defenseman with one huge weakness in his game--zone exits--Leddy looked great. Leddy used his skating to box people out, Parakyo did his thing all over the zone then got the puck to Leddy for a transition out.

Leddy was a huge member of New York's top 4 just a few years ago that was in the ECF two years running. He's old and may not be elite in a vaccuum, but like many other players, he's a solid cog in a system that needs one. At 4 AAV, this contract is tradable at the end anyway. I'm totally fine with it.

 

[Xerloris]

I would love to see advanced stats on how often advanced stats are wrong or misleading. I bet it's a lot.

I think the problem with advanced stats is that you have douchebags that see a chart and have no idea what it means but someone said it means this player is bad so they post that chart everywhere and they don't even give a description of what it means or why it means the player is bad. Just a bunch of asshats posting shit they don't understand.

 

[STL fan in MN]

I was super pissed when traded for Leddy due to his abysmal performance in Detroit, but I (and many others) ignored one advanced stat he scored well in: zone exits. Even in Detroit, where his game was tanking, he was extremely good at getting pucks out of the defensive zone.

Lo and behold, when partnered with Parayko, an elite defenseman with one huge weakness in his game--zone exits--Leddy looked great. Leddy used his skating to box people out, Parakyo did his thing all over the zone then got the puck to Leddy for a transition out.

Leddy was a huge member of New York's top 4 just a few years ago that was in the ECF two years running. He's old and may not be elite in a vaccuum, but like many other players, he's a solid cog in a system that needs one. At 4 AAV, this contract is tradable at the end anyway. I'm totally fine with it.

I would agree with this.

Leddy really made a big difference in the transitional game. It’s an overlooked aspect of the game as it’s not remotely a “pull you to the edge of your seat” type of skill but it’s super valuable to be able to successfully transition from defense to offense and avoid costly turnovers. And that type of skill becomes even more crucial in the playoffs as things tighten up and forechecking goes gangbusters.

Maybe the contract doesn’t turn out well by Year 4 if Leddy regresses but he’s a smart player and really made a difference down the stretch and into the playoffs last season. I’m good with the re-signing.