Nhl's parity and the small sample size syndrome

Discussion in 'National Hockey League Talk' started by Whodoyouthinkyousee, Oct 16, 2018.

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  1. Whodoyouthinkyousee

    Whodoyouthinkyousee Registered User

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    Hey. I read hfboards daily but almost never write anything. One thing that i want to ask now though, is one thing that bothers me quite much and would like to know some insight.

    I am a betting man myself and kind of do it for a living, as I'm studying now in the university and theres not really much money coming from there :D Althought hockey is not my sport in there. This I only watch for fun and bet for excitment now and then when drunk. Watching nhl hockey is my passion and the hfboards is actually a big part of the fun. English is not my native language, so there might be some weird quirks here and there, but try to not let that bother you.

    But yeah. Lets get to the subject already. I myself am of course in touch with betting odds every single day, and most of you also must now the basics of it. NHL is such a big market, that most of the time the odds for every game are atleast very very close to the truth. Of course you have to consider the 'big picture' and the 'long run' in there because some games are more closer to the truth than others. And that is because of the factors nobody out side the team, or in some cases out side one single player knows. For example Lehners debression and other stuff must have been making him play worse than he is, but nobody of course knew that so it didn't show in the odds.

    And why I wanted to point that out is, when i read these forums I see countless of times comments like "They are such a bad team, there is no way we can lose this game, or if we do the coach have to go!" (this is just one single example the hot takes are here every minute) And then the odds to that game are something like 65%-35%. So yeah, your team is a favorite but the parity in NHL is so big that there really is no single team that you can say that about. If you lose 10 straigth then yes, it's a different story. It bothers me much more than it probably should :D And yes I know that people don't think it that much and are just throwing it out there, but still. That happens so freakin often.

    If you are so sure about it, why not make yourself a living out of it. Just pick those kind of matches and in long run you will be filthy rich. (yea im kidding :) ) I understand big part of it is just being emotionally invested in your team. It's just, why the small sample size means so much to so many? Not just in single games but overall when talking about players or single plays in the game. Wouldn't more objectivity be smarter and frankly, easier?

    The text became probably just a nice little mess. I don't think I said nearly all the things I wanted, because when trying to translate this to english the thoughts just slip away from my head one at a time :D i hope some of you can catch the point and maybe enlighten me about it. Also is anybody else irritated by this at all? Am i just the guy 'who must me fun at parties' :)
     
  2. HansonBro

    HansonBro Registered User

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    The more i paid attention the better i did on proline. Predicting 3 games wasn't that hard
     

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