Barclay,
I think you are on the right track, but I respectfully suggest that you forget anything about a "grand plan" until just a few years ago. Until the Vegas situation opened up (more on that in a bit, here), the league ALWAYS did whatever was in the short term $$ interest of either the existing owners, or their friends.
Winnipeg>>Phoenix. This was NOT planned at all. Jets were supposed to go to Minneapolis, but Minneapolis rebuffed them (look it up some time). Phoenix was the only landing place available. And, that's why they have problems yet today. No market preparation.
Atlanta 2.0>>Winnipeg. There was nothing about this which was done to exclude Balsillie. The reality is that the league had been negotiating with True North about Phoenix in case that became necessary (this was 2 years after the BK, and Balsillie was no factor any more). And, since price had been decided, and NHL had done all the vetting, when the emergency came up in Atlanta, Winnipeg was the only place they could go. I believe that NHL was caught blind-sided by the ASG. Although, truth be known, they should have been paying closer attention, and they wouldn't have gotten caught like that. Although I'm not sure what difference it made, in the long run (although the curious question is: What if Glendale had refused the extortion and hadn't paid the 25M?)
Then, Centre Videotron. I believe now that this was a case of Quebec as a city and a province noticing what happened in Winnipeg and thinking too positively. First, the new boards at the old Colisee. Then, the new arena. I believe that they assumed more than the NHL actually told them. So, I'm not really sure that the NHL wants to go there, although I am sure it would be a stable market.
So, the present. It's my belief that Foley reached out to the league first, and the league suggested Vegas. That's a new arena, and Foley has part ownership. So, he came with the money, and the league, for the first time, took initiative to get the team where THEY wanted it - in the west, for geographic balance. Then, Seattle. No secret they have been watching Seattle for a long time. It would be interesting to know, sometime, how long feelers were going out behind the scenes about renovating Key, all the while Hansen was engaged in his dream in SoDo. But, again, that is part of a plan.
So, the reality now is: Seattle will balance the divisions. It's likely that the playoffs become, for a while, anyway, top4 with 2 rounds in division. That lessens travel even more, so the PA will love it, and it works better for TV, too.
If the league expanded again, then each owner could expect somewhere around 18M from the fee. But, it will come at a price. The owners are hoping for a big media contract (I don't think it's coming, but.....). And, all those fees will be split more ways. And, a slightly lower chance of playoff qualification. And, perhaps a re-alignment. Further expansion seems more headache than positive. Especially since Houston's Fertitta doesn't want to pay the going rate, and it's possible Quebecor can't. No where else is even close.
And, the plan, if you will, is that both of those places COULD receive a team if it were necessary.
What's interesting in the big picture is that Seattle might not come on board until 2021. There might be a work stoppage that year. And, after 2023, I think, Florida can opt out of their lease. So, the rumor mill will start all over again there, especially since, although I can't remember the details, it seems to me that the most recent thing Broward County did didn't seem especially receptive to continue to finance the Panthers.
