NHL revenue projections/cap likely to be revised downward

[AustonsNostrils]

The NHL just projected a $83M salary cap for next season but this article says with a decline in attendance, and the Canadian dollar, that it will likely end up at $80M.

article is in French, this is the Google translation

FEARS ARE CONFIRMED

• a column in October , the NHL had a modest 3% increase this season compared to last year.
  But projections have been revised downwards (which is never good news) and we are now talking about an increase of only 2%, the smallest increase since the arrival of the salary cap in 2005! The average in the last 13 years was 6% and you say that a 4% decline is huge.
  
  An impact everywhere
  
  Last week at the meeting of the NHL Governors on Sea Island, Gary Bettman predicted that the salary cap would be $ 83 million next season, up $ 3.5 million from this season. It would be surprising, if not unrealistic, for this goal to be achieved. It should also not rule out the possibility that players demand that the salary cap increase by only $ 1 million - so it would be $ 80 million - because they are forced to place a high percentage of their salary in trust ( escrow) to allow homeowners to earn 50% of the league's revenue.
  
  The AJLNH reacts
  
  Ticket sales are down this season in the NHL, as is the Canadian dollar, which is 75 cents against the US dollar, when it was close to 79 cents a year ago. For the second quarter, the Players' Association is forced to ask its members to withhold 13.5% of salaries to put this money in trust (11.5% was placed in trust in the first quarter), which will rekindle the grumbling inside the AJLNH.
  
  This grumble obviously comes at a bad time, knowing that the players will be able to reopen the collective agreement on September 15th.

Les craintes se confirment - TVA Sports

Click to read more...

 

[VoluntaryDom]

dammit

 

[Karl Eriksson]

Hard to believe with economic growth numbers as high as they are in Canada and Moreso the US. Record low unemployment, wage growth etc. FX issues only impact 7 teams.

 

[Dotter]

Awesome! Would love to see teams who overpay their young stars struggle to keep their soon to be RFA.

 

[Future GOAT]

It can't help that the league has lost grit, gotten soft and reffing has been atrocious.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Awesome! Would love to see teams who overpay their young stars struggle to keep their soon to be RFA.

Except that it's the teams who overpaid their RFA's who will make other teams struggle not whatever shot you are trying to take.

 

[GAGLine]

The 83 mil number was based on the players electing the escalator at a certain percentage (somewhere between 0 and 5%). It could still be 82 mil or more depending on what they choose.

 

[Commander Clueless]

Welp, we're boned.

 

[Thordic]

The 83 mil number was based on the players electing the escalator at a certain percentage (somewhere between 0 and 5%). It could still be 82 mil or more depending on what they choose.

The escalator is pointless though. You artifically inflate the cap but increase escrow along with it - the players don't make any more money.

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Isnt this a suggesion?

Itll end up at 82.5-84, almost positive about that. The Dollars (US and CAN) are up

 

[Burke the Legend]

The escalator is pointless though. You artifically inflate the cap but increase escrow along with it - the players don't make any more money.

Yet then they still complain about it like they are being robbed. Hockey players aren't exactly known as math whizzes.

 

[dechire]

The 83 mil number was based on the players electing the escalator at a certain percentage (somewhere between 0 and 5%). It could still be 82 mil or more depending on what they choose.

Based on my math, if revenue growth is indeed only 2%, the absolute maximum that the cap could be using the entire 5% escalator would be 84m. The NHLPA will almost definitely not use the entire 5%. This past year they used 1.25%. If they use 1.25% again, using the 2% revenue increase, the cap would be at 81m.

*I rounded some of these numbers for ease of understanding so they are not exact.

 

[PAZ]

Yet then they still complain about it like they are being robbed. Hockey players aren't exactly known as math whizzes.

I mean... the players with long-term contracts basically are losing money to help other players get paid.

 

[CallMeShaft]

How the f*** do you go from potentially a $3.5m increase to only a $0.5m increase over the span of a week or two?!?

 

[koyvoo]

Very interesting development.

 

[Cor]

How the **** do you go from potentially a $3.5m increase to only a $0.5m increase over the span of a week or two?!?

This is the only source I have seen claiming this.

I feel like this is true, every major reporter would be talking about it, yet, crickets.

So I'm Skeptical for now. Doesn't make sense that last week the NHL projected 83M. It's not like they didn't know the lower Canadian $ and what revenues were at then

 

[CallMeShaft]

This is the only source I have seen claiming this.

I feel like this is true, every major reporter would be talking about it, yet, crickets.

So I'm Skeptical for now. Doesn't make sense that last week the NHL projected 83M. It's not like they didn't know the lower Canadian $ and what revenues were at then

I've expected for months that it'll hit 82m and I still expect that when everything is said and done. Still crazy to think there'd be an article from a pretty reliable site saying that it could possibly only go up by half a million.

 

[Machinehead]

Salaries skyrocketing, cap goes down.

What a healthy league.

 

[Cor]

I've expected for months that it'll hit 82m and I still expect that when everything is said and done. Still crazy to think there'd be an article from a pretty reliable site saying that it could possibly only go up by half a million.

Like I said, no one else is even talking about this. No statement from the NHL. Nothing from any of the usual insiders. Nothing.

Until then, I see this as nothing but speculation.

Maybe everyone else is waiting for confirmation before publishing their stories, and TVA is taking a risk in order to be the first, but, it seems odd.

 

[Critical13]

Oh sweet baby Jesus please send help

 

[TheTotalPackage]

What raised my eyebrow the most was the fact that ticket sales are down.

 

[Burke the Legend]

I mean... the players with long-term contracts basically are losing money to help other players get paid.

Escalator has been invoked every year, so the cap would have been inflated for those players too.

The time to cut off the sugar would have been last summer when it had a large jump from 75 to 79.5...but nope.

 

[KIRK]

Salaries skyrocketing, cap goes down.

What a healthy league.

What great timing too . . . lockout?

 

[Gunnersaurus Rex]

Hard to believe with economic growth numbers as high as they are in Canada and Moreso the US. Record low unemployment, wage growth etc. FX issues only impact 7 teams.

Assuming this is sarcasm, but after reading it again, I'm not so sure.

 

[Whaleafs]

Hard to believe with economic growth numbers as high as they are in Canada and Moreso the US. Record low unemployment, wage growth etc. FX issues only impact 7 teams.

Canada counts outsourcing your $70K a year job to China or Mexico and forcing you to work 2 $30K a year jobs instead as “job growth”