NHL lost estimated $3.6B due to limited attendance

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,276
12,567
South Mountain
The new american tv contract is worth 425 million more dollars a year than the current one

Technically it's only about $325m in new money, as the existing NHL streaming revenue estimated at $100m was rolled into the ESPN deal.

Also, those reported numbers are averages across the entire term of the contract. These contracts typically increase around 5% year over year. So the old NBC contract is paying more then the $200m average this season, and the new contacts will likely pay less then the reported $625m averaged next season. Something of a year over year jump in the low $200m's is a reasonable estimate.
 
  • Like
Reactions: eddygee

Anisimovs AK

Registered User
Apr 14, 2006
3,323
1,401
Columbus, OH
Technically it's only about $325m in new money, as the existing NHL streaming revenue estimated at $100m was rolled into the ESPN deal.

Also, those reported numbers are averages across the entire term of the contract. These contracts typically increase around 5% year over year. So the old NBC contract is paying more then the $200m average this season, and the new contacts will likely pay less then the reported $625m averaged next season. Something of a year over year jump in the low $200m's is a reasonable estimate.
The first years of NBC's contract they were paying $188 million a year, so I doubt they are paying enough to make an estimate of only $200 million the most accurate. As a matter of fact, the most accurate estimate for people who lack the concrete details of the contracts would be to use the average over the course of the deal, i.e the reported numbers ($200 million, and $625 million)
 
  • Like
Reactions: eddygee

MNNumbers

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Nov 17, 2011
7,625
2,486
The first years of NBC's contract they were paying $188 million a year, so I doubt they are paying enough to make an estimate of only $200 million the most accurate. As a matter of fact, the most accurate estimate for people who lack the concrete details of the contracts would be to use the average over the course of the deal, i.e the reported numbers ($200 million, and $625 million)

This is clearly untrue, if the discussion is to determine how much the league is losing this year, and you are comparing with last year. In such a case, one must use some kind of year-to-year increase factor, or you are effectively comparing the media contract from 17-18 with the one for 23-24, but you are comparing 20-21 with 21-22. This clearly makes no sense.

I have seen a figure with a 15M/yr increase for the expiring contract. Obviously, we don't know for sure, but given that number is out there, a conservative 10M/yr increase would be okay to use. In that case, the league is getting something like 240M this year +100M streaming = 340M
New contract averages 415 I think from ESPN, for 7 years, meaning about 385 next year (again, 10M/yr increase).
TNT averages, what, 210M?, so, with a 5M increment, (because it's a smaller contract to begin with), we have 195M for next year.
That means a one year bump of 240M (from 340 to 580), followed by 6 consecutive years of 15M bumps.

That 240M bump gets cut in 32 pieces rather than 31. So, per team, last year:
approx 340/31 = 11M/team
Next year:
approx 580/32 = 18M/team
 
  • Like
Reactions: eddygee

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,276
12,567
South Mountain
The first years of NBC's contract they were paying $188 million a year, so I doubt they are paying enough to make an estimate of only $200 million the most accurate. As a matter of fact, the most accurate estimate for people who lack the concrete details of the contracts would be to use the average over the course of the deal, i.e the reported numbers ($200 million, and $625 million)
This is clearly untrue, if the discussion is to determine how much the league is losing this year, and you are comparing with last year. In such a case, one must use some kind of year-to-year increase factor, or you are effectively comparing the media contract from 17-18 with the one for 23-24, but you are comparing 20-21 with 21-22. This clearly makes no sense.

I have seen a figure with a 15M/yr increase for the expiring contract. Obviously, we don't know for sure, but given that number is out there, a conservative 10M/yr increase would be okay to use. In that case, the league is getting something like 240M this year +100M streaming = 340M
New contract averages 415 I think from ESPN, for 7 years, meaning about 385 next year (again, 10M/yr increase).
TNT averages, what, 210M?, so, with a 5M increment, (because it's a smaller contract to begin with), we have 195M for next year.
That means a one year bump of 240M (from 340 to 580), followed by 6 consecutive years of 15M bumps.

That 240M bump gets cut in 32 pieces rather than 31. So, per team, last year:
approx 340/31 = 11M/team
Next year:
approx 580/32 = 18M/team

The Canadian TV deal rises from $300m to $500m over a 12 year contract. That's a non-compounded year over year increase of just over 5%. The 5% year to year increase has been reported to be a common benchmark in many pro-sports TV deals.

Napkin math for the 2020-21 to 2021-22 year over year increase from NBC+steaming to ESPN/Turner, by %'s--includes $100m estimated NHL streaming revenue being switched to ESPN:

Both 5%: $337m to $543m = gain of $206m year over year.
Both 4%: $330m to $558m = gain of $228m year over year.
Both 3%: $323m to $573m = gain of $250m year over year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: eddygee

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
22,093
10,685
The Canadian TV deal rises from $300m to $500m over a 12 year contract. That's a non-compounded year over year increase of just over 5%. The 5% year to year increase has been reported to be a common benchmark in many pro-sports TV deals.

Napkin math for the 2020-21 to 2021-22 year over year increase from NBC+steaming to ESPN/Turner, by %'s--includes $100m estimated NHL streaming revenue being switched to ESPN:

Both 5%: $337m to $543m = gain of $206m year over year.
Both 4%: $330m to $558m = gain of $228m year over year.
Both 3%: $323m to $573m = gain of $250m year over year.

Aren’t those Canadian dollars you quoted though, need to convert Canada’s TV deal to US dollars

12 years at 5.232 billion Canadian
 

mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
29,276
12,567
South Mountain
Aren’t those Canadian dollars you quoted though, need to convert Canada’s TV deal to US dollars

12 years at 5.232 billion Canadian

I'm only using the Canadian contract to illustrate the annual 5% increase standard common to media deals. All the figures in my post are from the U.S. tv deals.
 
  • Like
Reactions: eddygee

eddygee

Registered User
Mar 12, 2018
904
421
I'm only using the Canadian contract to illustrate the annual 5% increase standard common to media deals. All the figures in my post are from the U.S. tv deals.
This is the type of analysis that I just love and geek out on here love reading and hearing about the finer number sides of business and sports. Keep it up!
 

Anisimovs AK

Registered User
Apr 14, 2006
3,323
1,401
Columbus, OH
This is clearly untrue, if the discussion is to determine how much the league is losing this year, and you are comparing with last year. In such a case, one must use some kind of year-to-year increase factor, or you are effectively comparing the media contract from 17-18 with the one for 23-24, but you are comparing 20-21 with 21-22. This clearly makes no sense.

I have seen a figure with a 15M/yr increase for the expiring contract. Obviously, we don't know for sure, but given that number is out there, a conservative 10M/yr increase would be okay to use. In that case, the league is getting something like 240M this year +100M streaming = 340M
New contract averages 415 I think from ESPN, for 7 years, meaning about 385 next year (again, 10M/yr increase).
TNT averages, what, 210M?, so, with a 5M increment, (because it's a smaller contract to begin with), we have 195M for next year.
That means a one year bump of 240M (from 340 to 580), followed by 6 consecutive years of 15M bumps.

That 240M bump gets cut in 32 pieces rather than 31. So, per team, last year:
approx 340/31 = 11M/team
Next year:
approx 580/32 = 18M/team
Ah yes, the ole "I saw a figure" or "I read sonewhere", yet there is never an actual source.


Thanks for "correcting" me, guys.
 

Lacaar

Registered User
Jan 25, 2012
4,061
1,203
Edmonton
I wonder how strong the Union is going to remain as younger players come in. I would think there would be some serious resentment there. They will be paying off escrow that was driven up by former players at the advice of the Union.

Goodenow and his rising tide steadies the ship escrow riser. That tide is about to have its plug pulled.
Even Union heads manage the cap like NHL GM's manage their teams. Who cares about 5 years from now, I won't be employed here anyways yada.

Serenity now, insanity later haha.
 

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->