NHL Goaltender Strength of Schedule (2016-17)

Doctor No · Oct 31, 2016

Starting this again as well, for the 2016-17 season.

A bunch of background material is in this thread:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1501681

Premise of the thread:

Some goaltenders play tougher schedules than other goaltenders.
This is true across teams, and between teams.
This can be deliberate coaching strategy, or random variation.
This can involve home/road usage, deliberate matchups, or both.
Regardless of the reason, goaltenders have worse statistics against better teams than against worse teams.
If you're looking for goaltenders who might improve, one place to look is for who plays tougher schedules.

Anyhow, pretty simple.

Doctor No · Oct 31, 2016

The way that I typically present these numbers is ranked in order of team variation (so the team with the greatest difference between goaltenders would be listed first, et cetera).

I also typically only present goalies with 10 or more games played.

Two problems: not only are there no teams with goaltenders playing 10 or more games so far, there's even one team where no goaltender has played five games.

So, for this edition, I'll list only goaltenders with 5 or more games played (and Boston still sits this one out).

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.14| Michal Neuvirth |-0.37|||+0.23
ARI| Louis Domingue |+0.66|||||+0.00
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.61|||||+0.00
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.56|||||+0.00
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.38|||||+0.00
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.29|||||+0.00
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.29|||||+0.00
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.26|||||+0.00
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.13|||||+0.00
FLO| Roberto Luongo |+0.13|||||+0.00
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.11|||||+0.00
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.09|||||+0.00
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.09|||||+0.00
STL| Jake Allen |+0.06|||||+0.00
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.02|||||+0.00
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.04|||||+0.00
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |-0.10|||||+0.00
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.12|||||+0.00
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.20|||||+0.00
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.21|||||+0.00
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.23|||||+0.00
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.26|||||+0.00
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.30|||||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.34|||||+0.00
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |-0.39|||||+0.00
ANA| John Gibson |-0.39|||||+0.00
MON| Carey Price |-0.42|||||+0.00
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.44|||||+0.00
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.57|||||+0.00

Doctor No · Nov 7, 2016

Updated with NHL games through November 6, 2016 (still minimum five GP):

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.45| Al Montoya |+0.37|||+0.82
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.21| Jimmy Howard |+0.37|||+0.58
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.17| Chad Johnson |-0.26|||+0.43
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.23| Michal Neuvirth |+0.07|||+0.30
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.13| Thomas Greiss |+0.42|||+0.29
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.26| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.03|||+0.23
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.23| Antti Niemi |+0.02|||+0.21
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.24| Ryan Miller |-0.03|||+0.21
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.64|||||
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.31|||||
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.26|||||
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.21|||||
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.14|||||
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.14|||||
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.12|||||
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.11|||||
FLO| Roberto Luongo |+0.06|||||
ARI| Louis Domingue |+0.02|||||
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.00|||||
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |-0.06|||||
STL| Jake Allen |-0.09|||||
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |-0.11|||||
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.13|||||
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.22|||||
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.22|||||
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.23|||||
ANA| John Gibson |-0.25|||||
OTT| Craig Anderson |-0.28|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.29|||||
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.42|||||

Doctor No · Nov 7, 2016

So far, the Price/Montoya discrepancy appears to be home/road driven - Montoya has played four of his five games on the road (and the home game was against Pittsburgh).

Doctor No · Nov 14, 2016

NHL games through November 13, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.34| Al Montoya |+0.36|||+0.70
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.22| Eddie Lack |-0.41|||+0.63
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.17| James Reimer |+0.40|||+0.57
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.52|||+0.56
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.09| Chad Johnson |-0.26|||+0.35
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.10| Jimmy Howard |+0.24|||+0.34
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.12| Michal Neuvirth |+0.16|||+0.28
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Thomas Greiss |+0.28|||+0.25
ANA| John Gibson |+0.08| Jonathan Bernier |-0.16|||+0.24
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.06| Ryan Miller |-0.20|||+0.14
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |-0.13| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.22|||+0.09
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.11| Antti Niemi |+0.02|||+0.08
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.06| Calvin Pickard |-0.01|||+0.07
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.18| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.11|||+0.06
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.30|||||
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.29|||||
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.16|||||
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.10|||||
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.09|||||
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.08|||||
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.06|||||
ARI| Louis Domingue |+0.04|||||
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.02|||||
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.03|||||
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.14|||||
OTT| Craig Anderson |-0.20|||||
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.23|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.24|||||
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.27|||||
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.37|||||

Price still getting the benefit of the splits (with Montoya getting the only road start of the week).

Doctor No · Nov 14, 2016

Here are the aggregate correlations between opponent strength and various goaltender metrics:

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.31|0.921|29.3|4,347
-0.7|2.25|0.924|29.8|4,716
-0.6|2.24|0.921|28.5|4,477
-0.5|2.35|0.918|28.6|4,164
-0.4|2.42|0.916|28.7|4,655
-0.3|2.32|0.918|28.5|5,610
-0.2|2.39|0.918|29.3|6,402
-0.1|2.50|0.917|30.2|5,687
+0.0|2.52|0.918|30.7|6,282
+0.1|2.74|0.912|31.2|5,374
+0.2|2.74|0.913|31.5|6,425
+0.3|2.63|0.916|31.2|5,750
+0.4|2.66|0.914|31.1|4,485
+0.5|2.58|0.917|31.1|4,856
+0.6|2.46|0.920|30.6|2,167
+0.7|2.70|0.909|29.5|3,739
+0.8|2.73|0.908|29.7|3,554
R^2|72%|61%|11%|

Still not a lot of data here; these will form up (like they do every year).

Doctor No · Nov 21, 2016

NHL games through November 20, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
STL| Jake Allen |-0.15| Carter Hutton |+0.61|||+0.76
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.12| Eddie Lack |-0.40|||+0.52
FLO| Roberto Luongo |+0.04| James Reimer |+0.51|||+0.48
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.18| Scott Darling |-0.61|||+0.44
MON| Carey Price |-0.25| Al Montoya |+0.14|||+0.39
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.04| Thomas Greiss |+0.41|||+0.37
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.13| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.15|||+0.27
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |+0.05| Ryan Miller |-0.22|||+0.27
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.09| Chad Johnson |-0.17|||+0.27
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.16| Antti Raanta |+0.11|||+0.27
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.18| Michal Neuvirth |+0.04|||+0.22
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.06|||+0.20
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.05| Calvin Pickard |-0.03|||+0.07
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.01| Antti Niemi |+0.06|||+0.07
ANA| John Gibson |-0.04| Jonathan Bernier |-0.11|||+0.07
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.03| Jimmy Howard |+0.09|||+0.05
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.05| Anders Nilsson |+0.00|||+0.04
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.00| Matt Murray |+0.04|||+0.03
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.29|||||
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.32|||||
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.11|||||
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.06|||||
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.18|||||
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.19|||||
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.07|||||
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.04|||||
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.23|||||
OTT| Craig Anderson |-0.17|||||
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.16|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.21|||||

Carter Hutton's getting some interesting spots - the Rangers twice, Columbus twice, then Calgary and Nashville.

Doctor No · Nov 21, 2016

Correlations are starting to firm up (except for shots/game):

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.29|0.921|28.8|4,223
-0.7|2.24|0.923|29.0|3,021
-0.6|2.25|0.921|28.5|4,722
-0.5|2.24|0.925|29.8|7,025
-0.4|2.22|0.926|29.8|7,984
-0.3|2.22|0.925|29.8|9,130
-0.2|2.36|0.924|31.0|6,881
-0.1|2.48|0.917|29.9|8,182
+0.0|2.63|0.912|29.7|7,577
+0.1|2.65|0.912|30.0|8,534
+0.2|2.70|0.910|30.1|7,686
+0.3|2.73|0.911|30.7|5,631
+0.4|2.65|0.915|31.0|6,236
+0.5|2.81|0.908|30.7|4,803
+0.6|2.75|0.909|30.2|5,278
+0.7|2.90|0.903|29.9|3,728
+0.8|2.91|0.903|29.9|2,102
R^2|92%|87%|9%|

Doctor No · Nov 27, 2016

NHL games through November 27, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.21| Eddie Lack |-0.32|||+0.53
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.49|||+0.52
MON| Carey Price |-0.25| Al Montoya |+0.17|||+0.41
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.01| James Reimer |+0.36|||+0.36
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.04| Thomas Greiss |+0.36|||+0.32
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.15| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.15|||+0.30
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.04| Philipp Grubauer |-0.24|||+0.28
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.04| Scott Darling |-0.31|||+0.27
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.06| Calvin Pickard |-0.15|||+0.21
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.13| Antti Raanta |+0.07|||+0.20
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.07| Antti Niemi |-0.12|||+0.19
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |+0.01| Ryan Miller |-0.17|||+0.18
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.14|||+0.12
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.05| Jhonas Enroth |+0.15|||+0.10
ANA| John Gibson |-0.01| Jonathan Bernier |-0.09|||+0.08
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.13| Matt Murray |+0.21|||+0.08
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.04| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.04|||+0.08
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.11| Jimmy Howard |+0.04|||+0.08
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.01| Anders Nilsson |+0.08|||+0.07
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.08|||+0.07
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.10| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.03
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.12| Mike Smith |-0.12|||+0.00
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.16|||||
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.13|||||
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.12|||||
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05|||||
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.07|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.15|||||
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.19|||||
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.24|||||

Whether intentional or not, Carolina is demonstrating the proper way to insulate a backup goaltender.

Obviously *not* intentional, but Arizona's Domingue and Smith have faced the exact same level of opponents.

Doctor No · Nov 27, 2016

And some correlations:

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.20|0.923|28.4|3,900
-0.7|2.05|0.922|26.4|2,604
-0.6|2.30|0.918|28.2|4,957
-0.5|2.21|0.924|29.0|7,042
-0.4|2.19|0.925|29.0|9,638
-0.3|2.21|0.925|29.4|10,174
-0.2|2.25|0.925|30.0|10,657
-0.1|2.35|0.922|30.3|10,306
+0.0|2.50|0.918|30.6|11,003
+0.1|2.59|0.916|30.7|11,733
+0.2|2.62|0.914|30.6|10,239
+0.3|2.77|0.909|30.3|11,016
+0.4|2.73|0.910|30.3|9,460
+0.5|2.77|0.910|30.7|7,396
+0.6|2.82|0.907|30.3|6,592
+0.7|2.66|0.912|30.2|3,593
+0.8|3.07|0.896|29.4|3,281
R^2|88%|80%|25%|

Better opponents lead to higher goals-against averages (hopefully obviously), lower save percentages, and (for the most part) more shots faced.

Doctor No · Dec 5, 2016

NHL games through December 4, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
STL| Jake Allen |-0.10| Carter Hutton |+0.35|||+0.45
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.25| Eddie Lack |-0.16|||+0.41
MON| Carey Price |-0.13| Al Montoya |+0.23|||+0.36
OTT| Craig Anderson |0.00| Mike Condon |-0.32|||+0.31
FLO| Roberto Luongo |+0.03| James Reimer |+0.34|||+0.31
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.08| Philipp Grubauer |-0.22|||+0.29
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.03| Scott Darling |-0.30|||+0.27
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.17| Jonas Gustavsson |+0.09|||+0.26
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.11| Mike Smith |+0.14|||+0.25
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.22|||+0.24
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.04| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.15|||+0.20
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.10| Antti Raanta |+0.09|||+0.19
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.01| Matt Murray |+0.19|||+0.18
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.03| Anders Nilsson |+0.19|||+0.16
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.03| Jimmy Howard |+0.11|||+0.14
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.02| Calvin Pickard |-0.15|||+0.13
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.05| Thomas Greiss |+0.16|||+0.12
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.04| Ryan Miller |-0.15|||+0.11
PHI| Steve Mason |0.00| Michal Neuvirth |+0.10|||+0.10
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.02| Jhonas Enroth |+0.10|||+0.08
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.17| Darcy Kuemper |-0.24|||+0.06
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.10|||+0.04
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.02| Antti Niemi |-0.06|||+0.03
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |-0.04| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.06|||+0.02
ANA| John Gibson |+0.03| Jonathan Bernier |+0.02|||+0.01
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.05| Chad Johnson |+0.05|||+0.00
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.11|||||
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.09|||||
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.04|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.23|||||

Carter Hutton's getting *worked*, if you're wondering why his recent game logs look a bit more red than in the past:

http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/STL2016.html

Doctor No · Dec 5, 2016

Correlations drop a bit over the past week as well:

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.27|0.918|27.6|2,221
-0.7|2.18|0.920|27.3|6,081
-0.6|2.17|0.924|28.4|6,832
-0.5|2.13|0.925|28.4|9,943
-0.4|2.11|0.927|28.8|12,188
-0.3|2.23|0.925|29.8|11,347
-0.2|2.30|0.922|29.6|12,236
-0.1|2.52|0.917|30.4|13,143
+0.0|2.65|0.913|30.4|12,335
+0.1|2.65|0.912|30.3|14,763
+0.2|2.70|0.911|30.3|14,175
+0.3|2.64|0.913|30.1|12,312
+0.4|2.71|0.912|30.8|11,488
+0.5|2.69|0.914|31.2|8,016
+0.6|2.59|0.918|31.5|6,244
+0.7|2.76|0.912|31.4|4,742
+0.8|2.79|0.906|29.9|3,459
R^2|79%|69%|21%|

Doctor No · Dec 12, 2016

NHL games through December 11, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.27| Al Montoya |+0.31|||+0.58
STL| Jake Allen |-0.03| Carter Hutton |+0.40|||+0.43
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.23| Eddie Lack |-0.13|||+0.36
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.01| Scott Darling |-0.34|||+0.33
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.13| Michal Neuvirth |+0.18|||+0.31
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.01| James Reimer |+0.30|||+0.31
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.11| Jonas Gustavsson |+0.17|||+0.28
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |-0.23|||+0.25
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.08| Jimmy Howard |+0.13|||+0.21
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.14| Aaron Dell |-0.06|||+0.19
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.02| Philipp Grubauer |-0.18|||+0.16
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.17|||+0.16
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.06| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.09|||+0.15
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.01| Mike Condon |-0.14|||+0.15
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.16|||+0.14
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Matt Murray |+0.16|||+0.13
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.02| Mike Smith |+0.09|||+0.11
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.03| Jhonas Enroth |+0.14|||+0.11
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.08| Chad Johnson |-0.01|||+0.09
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |+0.02| Ryan Miller |-0.07|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.08| Antti Raanta |-0.01|||+0.06
LOS| Peter Budaj |-0.01| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.05|||+0.06
ANA| John Gibson |+0.01| Jonathan Bernier |+0.06|||+0.05
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.17| Thomas Greiss |+0.22|||+0.05
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.16| Darcy Kuemper |-0.21|||+0.05
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.06| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.04|||+0.02
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.01| Antti Niemi |-0.03|||+0.01
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.00| Calvin Pickard |-0.01|||+0.01
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |0.00|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.32|||||

Carey Price adds New Jersey and Colorado (both at home) to his opponent list, and his average foe is now -0.27 goals/game. Meanwhile, Al Montoya gets the Blues on the road, and he's now at +0.31 goals/game.

Doctor No · Dec 12, 2016

And some correlations:

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.11|0.924|27.8|6,385
-0.7|2.07|0.923|27.0|4,398
-0.6|2.19|0.924|28.7|10,917
-0.5|2.19|0.925|29.1|10,456
-0.4|2.21|0.926|29.8|12,806
-0.3|2.28|0.924|29.9|14,426
-0.2|2.37|0.921|29.9|12,299
-0.1|2.53|0.916|30.3|14,507
+0.0|2.62|0.912|29.9|13,533
+0.1|2.61|0.914|30.3|15,239
+0.2|2.67|0.912|30.2|12,607
+0.3|2.69|0.912|30.5|11,110
+0.4|2.76|0.910|30.5|9,738
+0.5|2.75|0.909|30.2|8,089
+0.6|2.77|0.909|30.3|7,047
+0.7|2.77|0.909|30.3|6,612
+0.8|2.73|0.911|30.7|5,576
R^2|81%|69%|79%|

Doctor No · Dec 18, 2016

NHL games through December 18, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.24| Al Montoya |+0.32|||+0.56
STL| Jake Allen |+0.00| Carter Hutton |+0.41|||+0.41
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.10| Anton Khudobin |-0.27|||+0.37
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.15| Eddie Lack |-0.19|||+0.35
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.16| Aaron Dell |-0.16|||+0.32
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.14| Michal Neuvirth |+0.14|||+0.28
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.06| Jonas Gustavsson |+0.18|||+0.24
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.08| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.12|||+0.20
BUF| Robin Lehner |-0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.18|||+0.19
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.14| Antti Raanta |+0.05|||+0.19
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.02| Mike Condon |-0.16|||+0.18
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.01| Mike Smith |+0.16|||+0.17
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.16| Darcy Kuemper |-0.31|||+0.15
FLO| Roberto Luongo |+0.02| James Reimer |+0.16|||+0.14
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.10| Jimmy Howard |+0.03|||+0.13
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.08| Keith Kinkaid |+0.21|||+0.13
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.07| Calvin Pickard |-0.03|||+0.10
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.04| Matt Murray |-0.04|||+0.08
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.01| Philipp Grubauer |-0.08|||+0.08
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.03| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.04|||+0.07
CAL| Brian Elliott |+0.12| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.06
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |+0.03| Ryan Miller |-0.03|||+0.06
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.05| Scott Darling |-0.10|||+0.06
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.15| Thomas Greiss |+0.20|||+0.05
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |+0.03| Jhonas Enroth |+0.07|||+0.04
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.00| Antti Niemi |+0.05|||+0.04
ANA| John Gibson |+0.02| Jonathan Bernier |+0.02|||+0.01
LOS| Peter Budaj |+0.03| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.04|||+0.00
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |-0.03|||||
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.27|||||

Opponent strengths are measured in the thread parallel to this one.

I'm still quite impressed with the Price/Montoya splits. :amazed:

Doctor No · Dec 18, 2016

Correlations through December 18:

Opp Strength | GAA | Sv% | S/60 | Min
-0.8|2.12|0.926|28.6|6,426
-0.7|2.13|0.925|28.3|8,241
-0.6|2.14|0.927|29.1|10,256
-0.5|2.17|0.924|28.7|9,832
-0.4|2.32|0.920|29.0|12,218
-0.3|2.38|0.920|29.7|18,654
-0.2|2.50|0.915|29.5|17,550
-0.1|2.59|0.914|30.1|18,753
+0.0|2.57|0.916|30.5|15,916
+0.1|2.72|0.910|30.4|12,255
+0.2|2.72|0.911|30.7|13,352
+0.3|2.65|0.913|30.6|11,290
+0.4|2.62|0.914|30.5|12,020
+0.5|2.58|0.916|30.9|7,429
+0.6|2.53|0.915|29.8|5,604
+0.7|2.74|0.909|30.2|6,628
+0.8|2.93|0.904|30.5|4,936
R^2|90%|79%|60%|

morehockeystats · Dec 22, 2016

Shouldn't you use opponent shooting % rather than goal differential? Or at least both?

Doctor No · Dec 22, 2016

morehockeystats said:
Shouldn't you use opponent shooting % rather than goal differential? Or at least both?

Good question! Each is useful for different purposes.

On my site, I record both (for seasons that are complete):

For instance:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/price.html

(under REGULAR SEASON STATISTICS)

Last year, Carey Price faced an average team that was 0.04 goals/game below average, but an average shooter whose shooting percentage was 3.3% (percent, not percentage points) below average.

morehockeystats · Dec 22, 2016

Last year Carey Price didn't have a big sample to work with.

You may be interested in how I use Elo ratings to compare goaltenders:

http://www.morehockeystats.com/players/goalieratings

Each goalie starts the career with a 2000 rating. The performance evaluation is done vs. opponent shooting% excluding empty net goals.

Doctor No · Dec 23, 2016

This is great - very nice! I tried doing an ELO style calculation that I couldn't get to work like I wanted it to, so I put it on my list and figured that I'd get back to it someday (currently, I'm trying to reconcile 1968-69 statistics against my game logs).

I'm going to tweet about this, since I think my three followers will enjoy it.

morehockeystats · Dec 23, 2016

Doctor No said:
This is great - very nice! I tried doing an ELO style calculation that I couldn't get to work like I wanted it to, so I put it on my list and figured that I'd get back to it someday (currently, I'm trying to reconcile 1968-69 statistics against my game logs).

I'm going to tweet about this, since I think my three followers will enjoy it.

I got the Elo working for practically every measured stat in hockey, the most volatile are, naturally, shorthanded stats and shutouts.

I come from the chess background (USCF National Master, Israel National Arbiter), so nothing is more natural for me than Elo.

You've got one more follower, too.

Doctor No · Dec 24, 2016

NHL games through December 23, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.19| Al Montoya |+0.47|||+0.66
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.11| Eddie Lack |-0.25|||+0.36
STL| Jake Allen |+0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.36|||+0.35
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.01| Curtis McElhinney |-0.34|||+0.35
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.15| Michal Neuvirth |+0.18|||+0.33
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.26| Juuse Saros |+0.07|||+0.33
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |+0.21|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.07| Anton Khudobin |-0.18|||+0.26
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.12| Antti Raanta |+0.14|||+0.26
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |-0.04| Jhonas Enroth |+0.15|||+0.19
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.02| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.15|||+0.17
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.13| Aaron Dell |-0.04|||+0.17
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.02| Mike Smith |+0.14|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.03| James Reimer |+0.12|||+0.15
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.01| Anders Nilsson |+0.15|||+0.15
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.05| Keith Kinkaid |+0.20|||+0.15
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |0.00|||+0.14
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.01| Mike Condon |-0.11|||+0.12
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.01| Philipp Grubauer |-0.11|||+0.12
LOS| Peter Budaj |+0.11| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.01|||+0.12
ANA| John Gibson |+0.05| Jonathan Bernier |+0.16|||+0.10
CAL| Brian Elliott |-0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.09|||+0.10
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.17| Darcy Kuemper |-0.10|||+0.08
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.08| Jimmy Howard |-0.01|||+0.07
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.04| Matt Murray |+0.10|||+0.06
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.02| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.04|||+0.06
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.05| Ryan Miller |0.00|||+0.05
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.14| Thomas Greiss |+0.17|||+0.03
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.11| Scott Darling |-0.13|||+0.02
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.01| Antti Niemi |-0.01|||+0.00

All teams finally have two goalies with five or more games played (which means that I can probably switch to my usual threshold of ten games next week).

The Montreal gap keeps growing - Price got two home games (one against a middling Anaheim team, and one against the #2 team in the rankings), while Montoya got the road start last night against the solid #1 Blue Jackets.

Canadiens1958 · Dec 24, 2016

Third Game in Four Nights

Doctor No said:
NHL games through December 23, 2016:

Team | Goaltender One | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Two | 2016-17 Strength | Goaltender Three | 2016-17 Strength | Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |-0.19| Al Montoya |+0.47|||+0.66
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.11| Eddie Lack |-0.25|||+0.36
STL| Jake Allen |+0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.36|||+0.35
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.01| Curtis McElhinney |-0.34|||+0.35
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.15| Michal Neuvirth |+0.18|||+0.33
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.26| Juuse Saros |+0.07|||+0.33
EDM| Cameron Talbot |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |+0.21|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.07| Anton Khudobin |-0.18|||+0.26
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.12| Antti Raanta |+0.14|||+0.26
TOR| Fredrik Andersen |-0.04| Jhonas Enroth |+0.15|||+0.19
WIN| Michael Hutchinson |+0.02| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.15|||+0.17
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.13| Aaron Dell |-0.04|||+0.17
ARI| Louis Domingue |-0.02| Mike Smith |+0.14|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.03| James Reimer |+0.12|||+0.15
BUF| Robin Lehner |+0.01| Anders Nilsson |+0.15|||+0.15
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.05| Keith Kinkaid |+0.20|||+0.15
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |0.00|||+0.14
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.01| Mike Condon |-0.11|||+0.12
WAS| Braden Holtby |+0.01| Philipp Grubauer |-0.11|||+0.12
LOS| Peter Budaj |+0.11| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.01|||+0.12
ANA| John Gibson |+0.05| Jonathan Bernier |+0.16|||+0.10
CAL| Brian Elliott |-0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.09|||+0.10
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.17| Darcy Kuemper |-0.10|||+0.08
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.08| Jimmy Howard |-0.01|||+0.07
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.04| Matt Murray |+0.10|||+0.06
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.02| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.04|||+0.06
VAN| Jacob Markstrom |-0.05| Ryan Miller |0.00|||+0.05
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.14| Thomas Greiss |+0.17|||+0.03
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.11| Scott Darling |-0.13|||+0.02
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |-0.01| Antti Niemi |-0.01|||+0.00

All teams finally have two goalies with five or more games played (which means that I can probably switch to my usual threshold of ten games next week).

The Montreal gap keeps growing - Price got two home games (one against a middling Anaheim team, and one against the #2 team in the rankings), while Montoya got the road start last night against the solid #1 Blue Jackets.

Also Montoya played the third game in four nights on the road after Price played two at home. Columbus was sitting at home waiting. True, Columbus had played three games in four nights, but all at home not having to travel.

Interesting that coming home from the western swing that ended December 18, Columbus started Curtis McElhinney December 20 vs the Kings who were five games deep into their eastern swing which started December 13th. The December 20th game was the Kings 5th in eight days so the Columbus back-up got the start allowing Bobrovsky extra time to rest and adjust to the time difference.

morehockeystats · Dec 24, 2016

Goalies by the Elo:

http://morehockeystats.com/players/goalieratings

Doctor No · Jan 1, 2017

Canadiens1958 said:
Also Montoya played the third game in four nights on the road after Price played two at home. Columbus was sitting at home waiting. True, Columbus had played three games in four nights, but all at home not having to travel.

Interesting that coming home from the western swing that ended December 18, Columbus started Curtis McElhinney December 20 vs the Kings who were five games deep into their eastern swing which started December 13th. The December 20th game was the Kings 5th in eight days so the Columbus back-up got the start allowing Bobrovsky extra time to rest and adjust to the time difference.

Good point on back-to-backs and "waiting for opponent" games - this is something that I'd like to try to build into these in the near term.

NHL Goaltender Strength of Schedule (2016-17)

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