NHL Draft Software 2019 Rankings with Players Profile

[ProspectsFanatic]

About the software:
It attempts to mimic how the brain would naturally evaluate NHL draft-eligible prospects. With the aim of being all-encompassing in order to obtain results of the greatest precision, the software factors the analytics with the scouting evaluations. The software is highly fluid and adaptive, the scouting evaluations affect in various ways how the analytics are being interpreted; their respective preponderance is adjusted depending on the relevancy of the statistical input given to the software. The algorithm contains over 200 unique formulas which I believe their aggregated total can outperform the limited processing power of the human brain; the software can process more variables at once, all of which to greater precision and will always stay consistent in his interpretation of the different variables from player to player (eliminating in the process errors caused by a large array of human biases and by the unperfect recall of variables related values).

The statistical variables taken into account are: (last 3 seasons) league scoring difficulty & league level of competition, ice time, quality of linemates, organizational positional depth, #games played, #goals, #assits (#primary/#secondary), #points, shooting %, relative +/- and tournaments: WJC18, WJC20, Hlinka, WCH17. Bio: age, height, weight. Scouting evaluations: skating speed, edge work, shooting, puck control, playmaking ability, competitiveness, physical play and defensive play.

Last year results
NHL Draft Software: Final Rankings (Updated!)
2 years ago
Software evaluating draft eligible player
(I am always tweaking the algorithm each year, I especially accounted competitiveness for more this year.)

Click to read more...

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

FORWARDS
- DY: Draft year. DY-1: 1 year before the draft. DY-2: 2 years before the draft.
- The first section (with DY, DY-1, DY-2) shows the score for each season calculated by the software based on the data entered.
- The 2nd section shows the percentage per draft year taken into account in the final score (total 100%); it varies depending on the amount of games/tournaments played and their relevancy (example: DY first line OHL relevancy > 4th line KHL).
- The 3rd section shows an approximate measure of the scouting evaluations that comes affecting the interpretation of the statistical inputs. It isn't an average of the attributes; certain attributes are further accounted than others since they aren't as well represented in the statistical data (shooting abilities are redundant values with goal totals while attributes such as competitiveness and defensive skills are weighted higher than their actual importance. Skating is weighted highly due to his importance in projecting.)
- The 4th section shows an approximate measure of how much the scouting evaluation comes affecting the interpretation of the data. It varies depending on the relevancy of the statistical input (ice time, league difficulty, quality of linemates, etc.)
- The "SIZE" bar project the player possible size gain (height and weight) in the coming years. It slightly affects the final score.

FORWARDS PROFILE
* I watched about 2 shift by shift games for most prospects, additionally to WJC18/20/Hlinka tournaments. I complement my evaluations with other scouting reports.
- The playing style is automatically generated by the algorithm based on the scouting evaluation. It doesn't affect the final score.
Skating Speed: Acceleration, top speed.
Edge word: Turns, pivots, lateral movements, shiftiness.
Shooting: Velocity, accuracy, release rapidity.
Puck Control: Mainly ability to move the puck up ice whether through shielding are decking. Secondly, the ability to control the puck in tight space.
Offensive IQ: Playmaking, passing, creativity, offensive positioning.
Compete: Intensity, leadership.
Physical Play: Board/crease battle, hitting, balance.
Defensive Play: General usefulness defensively.
Scale: Exceptional, Exceptional/Excellent, Excellent, Excellent/Very Good, Very Good, Very Good/Good, Good, Average, Below Average, Poor, Very Poor.

DEFENSEMEN
- DY: Draft year. DY-1: 1 year before the draft. DY-2: 2 years before the draft.
- The first section (with DY, DY-1, DY-2) shows the score for each season calculated by the software based on the data entered.
- The 2nd section shows the percentage per draft year taken into account in the final score (total 100%); it varies depending on the amount of games/tournaments played and their relevancy (example: DY first line OHL relevancy > 4th line KHL).
- The 3rd section shows an approximate measure of the scouting evaluations that comes affecting the interpretation of the statistical inputs. It isn't an average of the attributes; certain attributes are further accounted than others since they aren't as well represented in the statistical data (shooting abilities are redundant values with goal totals while attributes such as competitiveness and defensive skills are weighted higher than their actual importance. Skating is weighted highly due to his importance in projecting.)
- The "SIZE" bar project the player possible size gain (height and weight) in the coming years. It slightly affects the final score.

DEFENSEMEN PROFILE
* I watched about 2 shift by shift games for most prospects, additionally to WJC18/20/Hlinka tournaments. I complement my evaluations with other scouting reports.
Skating Speed: Acceleration, top speed.
Edge word: Turns, pivots, lateral movements, shiftiness.
Shooting: Velocity, accuracy, release rapidity.
Puck Control: Mainly the ability to move the puck up ice (puck skills/shielding ability). Secondly, the ability to control the puck in tight space.
Offensive IQ: Playmaking, passing, creativity, offensive positioning.
Compete: Intensity, leadership.
Physical Play: Board/crease battle, hitting, balance.
Defensive Play: General usefulness defensively.
Scale: Exceptional, Exceptional/Excellent, Excellent, Excellent/Very Good, Very Good, Very Good/Good, Good, Average, Below Average, Poor, Very Poor.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Top eligible overagers
Forwards:
Samuel Fagemo [19] SHL
Brett Leason [19] WHL
Luka Burzan [19] WHL
Mikhail Shalagin [20] MHL
Mark Kastelic [20] WHL
Bryce Brodzinski [19] USHS
Defensemen:
Mattias Norlinder [19] SuperElit
Ronnie Attard [20] USHL

Top eligible goaltenders
Spencer Knight
Mads Søgaard
Dustin Wolf
Erik Portillo
Pyotr Kochetkov
Isaiah Saville

__________________________________________________
Honorable mentions (no draft list, would complete my top217)
Overagers
Forwards:
Kirill Slepets [20] KHL
Liam Hawel [20] OHL*
Kristian Tanus [19] Mestis
Kyle Topping [19] WHL
Filip Cederqvist [19] SHL
Adam Liska [19] KHL
Nikita Mikhailov [21] KHL
Matthew Struthers [19] OHL
Nikita Rtishchev [19] VHL
Lev Komissarov [19] VHL
Jere Innala [21] Liiga
Artyom Galimov [20] VHL
Jeremy McKenna [20] QMJHL
Carl Wassenius [19] SuperElit
Severi Lahtinen [20] Liiga
Lukas Wernblom [19] Allsvenskan
Nick Abruzzese [20] USHL
Defensemen:
Marc Del Gaizo [19] NCAA
Scott Walford [20] WHL*
Justin Bergeron [19] QMJHL
Noel Hoefenmayer [20] OHL*
Otto Latvala [20] Mestis
Brayden Pachal [20] WHL
David Noël [20] QMJHL*
*NHL draft re-entry

(Being familiar with the software, I don’t expect those players to reach the threshold score of 49.5. My top undrafted last year scored at 50.06)
OHL
Forwards:
Matvei Guskov
Joe Carroll
Mason Primeau
Danil Antropov
Navrin Mutter
Keegan Stevenson
Tag Bertuzzi
Cody Morgan
Defensemen:
Billy Constantinou
Jacob LeGuerrier
Liam Ross
Mason Millman

WHL
Forwards:
Sasha Mutala
Reece Newkirk
Luke Toporowski
Oleg Zaitsev
Henry Rybinski
Josh Williams
Ben McCartney
Martin Lang
Defensemen:
Cole Moberg
Connor Horning
Gianni Fairbrother
Jake Lee
Quinn Schmiemann
Jackson van de Leest

QMJHL
Forwards:
Nikita Alexandrov
Yaroslav Likhachyov
Valentin Nussbaumer
Xavier Parent
Filip Prikryl
Defensemen:
Maxence Guénette
David Aebischer
Christopher Merisier-Ortiz

BCHL
Forwards:
Alexander Campbell
Massimo Rizzo
Harrison Blaisdell

OJHL
Forwards:
Eric Ciccolini

USDP
Forwards:
Owen Lindmark
Danny Weight

USHL
Forwards:
Vladislav Firstov
Trevor Janicke
John Malone
Marcus Kallionkieli
Ethan Phillips
Grant Silianoff
Josh Nodler
Austen Swankler
Defensemen:
Christopher Giroday
William Francis

USHS
Forwards:
Rhett Pitlick
Garrett Pinoniemi
Nate Warner
Nikita Nesterenko
Defensemen:
Michael Koster
Braden Doyle
Cade Webber

NCAA
Defensemen:
Ben Brinkman

Russia
Forwards:
Arseni Gritsyuk
Alexei Tsyplakov
Alexander Gordin
Yegor Chinakhov
Dmitri Sheshin
Amir Garayev
Defensemen:
Yegor Bryutov
Roman Bychkov
Ivan Rogov
Andrei Pribylsky
Ilya Mironov
Pavel Yelizarov
Vadim Antipin

Sweden
Forwards:
Albin Sundsvik
Nikola Pasic
Arvid Costmar
Lucas Feuk
Max Wahlgren
Michal Mrazik
Wilson Johansson
Radek Muzik
Oscar Bjerselius
Defensemen:
Alfred Barklund
Ludvig Hedström
Albert Lyckåsen

Finland
Forwards:
Tuukka Tieksola
Aku Räty
Matias Mäntykivi
Defensemen:
Livari Räsänen
Kalle Loponen

Czech
Forwards:
Jonas Peterek
Vojtech Strondala
Ondrej Psenicka
Defensemen:
Martin Hugo Has

Players entered in the software that didn't meet the threshold: Artemi Kniazev, Kin Nousiainen, Case McCarthy, Logan Barlage and Ryan Siedem.

 

[Bonin21]

Why not just post when they're ready?

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Why not just post when they're ready?

I wanted 3 posts space and there is a waiting time before you can repost, I didn't want someone to reply quickly in between before I could reserve those, I figured it was more likely no one replied if I only posted "don't reply in the first post" until I can edit and post my rankings.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

inb4 content

Seriously, I've found your previous iterations to be high quality content. Keep up the good work!

 

[BigRangy]

Great work as usual!

 

[d rake]

Thanks for the hard work!

 

[Here4ThaLids]

Thank you!

 

[1967th Heaven]

Very cool, nice work!

 

[Kevin Musto]

I didn't think you were doing one this year, but so glad you did!

Surprised Alexandrov and Knyazev didn't rank higher in the system.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Love it. Nice upgrades

 

[Favin]

Nice work.

Guys that didn't meet your threshold, but I expected to be drafted...in no particular order...

Matvei Guskov
Billy Constantinou
Reece Newkirk
Josh Williams
Cole Moberg
Gianni Fairbrother
Alex Campbell
Massimo Rizzo
Owen Lindmark
Vlad Firstov
Ethan Phillips
Tervor Janicke
Mike Koster
Martin Hugo Has

 

[Hockey Stick]

Love the nice bump for the Peterborough boy Robertson!

 

[Cheddabombs]

This is really awesome, great work and thank you for sharing!

 

[Bounces R Way]

Very cool. Apologies if you've explained this but which section is weighted the highest for forwards?

 

[Fvital92]

Excellent job!

 

[tony d]

Thanks for posting this, some good work here.

 

[FlameChampion]

Always enjoy reading this perspective. Thanks for the hardwork.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

I didn't think you were doing one this year, but so glad you did!

Surprised Alexandrov and Knyazev didn't rank higher in the system.

Yeah, I saw you had Alexandrov in your 1st round. I didn’t tried him in the system, I would guess he would get a score of around 48. His stats for a first time eligible playing in CHL league are pretty solid. But being first line/1st PP it wouldn’t be interpreted as they could be higher, since he is as old as you could get, those numbers would be valued notably less, he benefited from a pretty solid linemate in Hardie (more than the other way around), some players can be salvage if I rate them very highly, like Misyul is ranked highly even though he has poor stats since they aren’t really meaningful and I gave him good ratings, but that couldn't be the case for Alexandrov. I’d still have him around ~125, but that too low for someone I would target at the draft. Can he establish himself as a top6 NHLer? Less of a fit bottom6 role. I don’t feel it much.

Kniazev almost plays like a forward from the backhand, but his stats aren’t that high. He doesn’t offer a powerful shotting option from the point. If you see him as a higher offensive/defensively IQ player than me he could jump a few points. I thought he was prone to errors of judgment in his decision making. I don’t see him projecting too well in the NHL from my limited viewing. Not really a PP guy for the NHL, because shot/IQ isn’t that high, won’t likely be in a defensive role, more of a 5 on 5 player. I know he is ranked highly on Mckenzie’s list though, could be wrong, I liked his mobility.

Very cool. Apologies if you've explained this but which section is weighted the highest for forwards?

For forwards: Speed > O IQ > Compete > Shooting > Def > Edges > Phy (very redundant with size which is already weighed in)
For defensemen def skills is 3rd I believe, it is complicated, like you would think I value defensive skills more than offensive IQ especially for defensemen since IQ is more redundant with the stats. But how good a player is defensively is redundant with speed, size, physical play and to a lesser extent offensive IQ (if you are smart offensively you are more likely to be smart player defensively). I play with those value until it makes the most sense, I am starting to have a large base a player in the software which helps figure this out. There are attributes like shooting that affects to varying degrees the player score depending if I have access to the player shooting% or not.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Kniazev almost plays like a forward from the backhand, but his stats aren’t that high. He doesn’t offer a powerful shotting option from the point. If you see him as a higher offensive/defensively IQ player than me he could jump a few points. I thought he was prone to errors of judgment in his decision making. I don’t see him projecting too well in the NHL from my limited viewing. Not really a PP guy for the NHL, because shot/IQ isn’t that high, won’t likely be in a defensive role, more of a 5 on 5 player. I know he is ranked highly on Mckenzie’s list though, could be wrong, I liked his mobility.

I agree he's a project pick. He makes tons of errors in his own zone, but the high end tools are all there. In the right system he could really flourish, but it'll take patience and precision.

 

[vancityluongo]

@Melvin think you might find this interesting.

 

[ProspectsFanatic]

Complete rankings have been added to the first post.

 

[Jamie]

Is this something you make available for download? Or just share the lists it generates?

 

[shotvalley]

Give me Kaapa