Prospect Info: NHL 2017 Entry Draft: Year of the Homegrown Talent
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Lets not kid ourselves. NHL defenseman don't make up some random distribution of body sizes coming to the North American average of 5.10 and 175 lbs. On the whole most of the best of them are very large men. Most are not Stanley size but a large majority are far above the average sized man. If you look at the d-man playing for Canada, USA and Team NA at the world cup they average 6.2 3/4 and weigh 215 lbs. Even Ghost the smallest is above the NA average. 12 of 21 are 6.3 or taller. 8 of 21 are 6.4 or larger. If skating and puck movement are comparable size and strength offers many advantages.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Fun fact:
I have found height to be factor in predicting whether or not a player plays in the NHL, but much weaker than age, which is much weaker than scoring.
In many studies, I have yet to find height being a predictive factor of how good a player will be if they make he NHL.
I have found height to be factor in predicting whether or not a player plays in the NHL, but much weaker than age, which is much weaker than scoring.
In many studies, I have yet to find height being a predictive factor of how good a player will be if they make he NHL.
I take it this is average height compared to other hockey players not to the general population. The average North American male is approx 5.9 1/2 the average NHL hockey player last season was 6.1 1/3 - close to 4 inches above the general population average.
Everyone keep on a eye on this kid from Lillehammer.
Gustav Willman Borvik
6'3 - 214 pound C/RW playing in the Swedish Junior Leagues for Luleå.
Had 38 points in 26 games last year in the J18, saw 6 games in SuperElit and put up 3 goals.
Has 4 goals in 4 games so far in SE.
Liljegren already has 2 goals in 2 SE games. Likely see some SHL games soon. Brannstrom also has 3 points in 3 games. I think he see's a lot more SHL time this year as well.
Sweden just pumps out high quality defencemen recently. It's crazy.
Gustav Willman Borvik
6'3 - 214 pound C/RW playing in the Swedish Junior Leagues for Luleå.
Had 38 points in 26 games last year in the J18, saw 6 games in SuperElit and put up 3 goals.
Has 4 goals in 4 games so far in SE.
Liljegren already has 2 goals in 2 SE games. Likely see some SHL games soon. Brannstrom also has 3 points in 3 games. I think he see's a lot more SHL time this year as well.
Sweden just pumps out high quality defencemen recently. It's crazy.
Pretty solid for a young defencemen so far. There are so many PMD's in this draft. We need one for our system. It's alarmingly evident.
Figured I'd post my top 30 for forwards as well.
1. Nolan Patrick – RC/RW – 6'3 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
2. Maxime Comtois – LW/LC – 6'1 – 192 - Victoriaville, QMJHL
3. Gabriel Vilardi – RC – 6'2 – 185 - Windsor, OHL
4. Kailer Yamamoto – RC/LW – 5'9 – 159 - Spokane, WHL
5. Nico Hischier – LC – 6'0 – 172 - Halifax, QMJHL
6. Antoine Morand – LC – 5'9 – 170 - Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL
7. Michael Rasmussen – LC – 6'5 – 203 - Tri-City, WHL
8. Eeli Tolvanen – LW – 5'10 - 172 - Sioux City, USHL
9. Lias Andersson – LC/LW – 5'11 – 198 - HV71, SHL
10. Ostap Safin – RW – 6'4 – 198 - Sparta Praha, Czech
11. Casey Mittelstadt – LC/LW – 5'11 – 190 - Green Bay, USHL
12. Kristian Vesalainen РW Р6'3 Р203 - Fr̦lunda, SHL
13. Nick Suzuki – RC - 5'10 - 183 - Owen Sound, OHL
14. Adam Ruzicka – LC – 6'4 – 209 – Sarnia, OHL
15. Matthew Strome – LW – 6'3 – 190 - Hamilton, OHL
16. Scott Reedy – RC – 6'1 – 187 - USNT, USDP
17. Stelio Mattheos – RC – 6'1 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
18. Elias Pettersson РLC Р6'1 Р161 РTimr̴, SHL
19. Owen Tippet – RW – 6'1 – 181 - Mississauga, OHL
20. Marcus Davidsson РLC Р6'0 Р192 РDjurg̴rdens, SHL
21. Evan Barratt – LC – 5'11 – 172 – USNT, USDP
22. Shane Bowers – LC – 6'0 – 170 – Waterloo, USHL
23. Nikita Popugayev – RW – 6'4 - 203 - Moose Jaw, WHL
24. Jesper Boqvist – LC – 5'11 – 174 – Brynäs, SHL
25. Jaret Anderson-Dolan – LC – 5'11 – 181 – Spokane, WHL
26. Klim Kostin – RW – 6'3 – 196 – Dynamo Moskva, KHL
27. Ivan Lodnia – RW – 5'10 – 179 - Eerie, OHL
28. Emil Oksanen – RW – 6'1 – 190 – Sioux Falls, USHL
29. Grant Mismash – LC – 6'0 – 183 - USNT, USDP
30. Jakub Lacka – LW – 5'10 – 174 – Trinec, Czech
1. Nolan Patrick – RC/RW – 6'3 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
2. Maxime Comtois – LW/LC – 6'1 – 192 - Victoriaville, QMJHL
3. Gabriel Vilardi – RC – 6'2 – 185 - Windsor, OHL
4. Kailer Yamamoto – RC/LW – 5'9 – 159 - Spokane, WHL
5. Nico Hischier – LC – 6'0 – 172 - Halifax, QMJHL
6. Antoine Morand – LC – 5'9 – 170 - Acadie-Bathurst, QMJHL
7. Michael Rasmussen – LC – 6'5 – 203 - Tri-City, WHL
8. Eeli Tolvanen – LW – 5'10 - 172 - Sioux City, USHL
9. Lias Andersson – LC/LW – 5'11 – 198 - HV71, SHL
10. Ostap Safin – RW – 6'4 – 198 - Sparta Praha, Czech
11. Casey Mittelstadt – LC/LW – 5'11 – 190 - Green Bay, USHL
12. Kristian Vesalainen РW Р6'3 Р203 - Fr̦lunda, SHL
13. Nick Suzuki – RC - 5'10 - 183 - Owen Sound, OHL
14. Adam Ruzicka – LC – 6'4 – 209 – Sarnia, OHL
15. Matthew Strome – LW – 6'3 – 190 - Hamilton, OHL
16. Scott Reedy – RC – 6'1 – 187 - USNT, USDP
17. Stelio Mattheos – RC – 6'1 – 194 - Brandon, WHL
18. Elias Pettersson РLC Р6'1 Р161 РTimr̴, SHL
19. Owen Tippet – RW – 6'1 – 181 - Mississauga, OHL
20. Marcus Davidsson РLC Р6'0 Р192 РDjurg̴rdens, SHL
21. Evan Barratt – LC – 5'11 – 172 – USNT, USDP
22. Shane Bowers – LC – 6'0 – 170 – Waterloo, USHL
23. Nikita Popugayev – RW – 6'4 - 203 - Moose Jaw, WHL
24. Jesper Boqvist – LC – 5'11 – 174 – Brynäs, SHL
25. Jaret Anderson-Dolan – LC – 5'11 – 181 – Spokane, WHL
26. Klim Kostin – RW – 6'3 – 196 – Dynamo Moskva, KHL
27. Ivan Lodnia – RW – 5'10 – 179 - Eerie, OHL
28. Emil Oksanen – RW – 6'1 – 190 – Sioux Falls, USHL
29. Grant Mismash – LC – 6'0 – 183 - USNT, USDP
30. Jakub Lacka – LW – 5'10 – 174 – Trinec, Czech
BB88
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- Jan 19, 2015
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He's LD which should make him a high intrest for Jets.
From Tormentor from the prospect thread.
"Heiskanen's skating, smarts and puck skills are all 9 out of 10. That's quite a rare combination and I think this sets him apart from Välimäki or Vaakanainen."
We definitely need a solid skating puck mover. I've got my eyes on all of them. Right or left handed. At this point by the time any of these guys make the Jets full time we may have an opening on the right side. We just need some puck movers in the system badly.
- Jun 10, 2014
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You are completely misunderstanding. Size helps achieve their rating. If some guy achieves the same rating without the size he has to excel in some other way. If large size is a requirement for playing D and achieving at a high level then no one without that attribute will do so. Size is less vital for scoring but still helps if you have it. But being 6'5 and 225 doesn't make Wheeler more productive than P Kane.
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
Another fun fact, the average NHL height has been dropping, but not the (North American) human population.
Another, another, fun fact, the average NHL weight has been dropping more so (probably a fitness thing).
Peak for both was 2003-04.
Also, what has been done is not the same as what should be done.
We already know the NHL overvalues size in their amateur evaluations. The bias likely persists to other areas since these decision makers are mostly the same.
Now, the even more interesting thing is that means the overvaluation noted using success of prospects likely underrates the true level, since the bias would be persisting in both the amateur and the pro samples.
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I think you were overstating your point and I just responded to it. Is there even a single 5.8 D-man rated anywhere? When I look at Dax's list of top 30 draft eligible defenseman not a single one was listed below the average height of an North American male (5.9 1/2). And these are 17 year old kids most of which will continue to grow. So all small and the vast majority of average sized (as compared to the general population) defensemen get weeded out somewhere. I was merely responding that when looking at top end d-man they are for the most part very large men and why kid ourselves about that? You are not comparing 5.8 Vs. other heights because there are none for top level defenseman. The few players at that height capable playing in the NHL have gravitated to less physically demanding positions other than defense.
I pointed to the 21 defenseman selected to play for Canada, US and Team NA at the world cup (seems like a fairly comprehensive group to call top defenseman) and as a group they are very large men. So large that as a group the are at the 97 percentile for NA men in their 20's. This isn't some bias towards prospect size as they are well established in the NHL as star players. They were chosen because they were deemed to be the best at their position. To be at such an extreme end as a group would suggest size remains an important variable to becoming a top level NHL defenseman.
- Jun 10, 2014
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Then I misunderstood you. I specified extremes at both ends deliberately to make a point and I didn't specify D men.
Yes, size is important but it is part of what makes a player what he is. You might say that a player can't be good (to a specified level of good) without being big (still talking generalities). That doesn't mean that a big player will be good though.
If it is necessary for a player to be big in order to be good you need only draft good players and they will be big. It still doesn't work to draft big players and hope they will be good - especially if they have already shown themselves to be less than good.
I completely agree with the bolded. And since there are so few true #1 defenseman most of the best have the full tool kit. They are good skating puck movers that are also able to use their size and strength to control play. Whenever you are able to draft one into the organization it is a special thing.
There are exactly 30 number 1 defensemen.
In two years there will be 31.
No more, no less.
What qualifies as a number 1 will change. How many there are won't.
Such is the nature of using relative labels/classifications.
I do find this distinction interesting. If a team had 2 Norris winners and they were 1-2 in voting every year would they still have only one #1 defenseman? If a team had 6 Stu's would one of them then be considered a #1 defenseman?
No.
#1 means capable of being the #1 dman on a team given an equal distribution of talent across the league. Given that there are 30 teams, that would mean the top 30 dmen are #1 dmen.
That does not mean every team has 1 of these players.
This is how one would properly use relative ranking systems like #1 or third line.
With the addition of a new team this designation will increase by one, but the breakpoint of non_relative metrics your using to determine said cutoff will lower.
Third line would mean players who are 181-270 in whatever proper non-relative metrics you decide to apply to determine overall effectiveness.
At least that would be the truest most logical interpretation of #1. For a long get more in depth definition dig up the third line Ladd debates from year 1 and 2. I had to beat this drum quite frequently.
Edit you'd also likely be surprised by the names that end up in top thirty, regardless of the metrics you use. People tend to think #1 dman = drew doughty, but in reality theresbonoy five similar players which makes using that as he benchmark for "number 1" completely irrelevent
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garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
30 are used as #1s currently. 30 would be number one in a perfect market system.
This is the same as starter goaltenders and top centre, etc.
This is the same as starter goaltenders and top centre, etc.
Yep. This is the logic I have always applied to these sorts of ratings.
Because if you move the goal posts and are either referencing more or less then the actual positions available for the relative ranking (Top 15 of 30 teams for example), or switch to baseline of a non relative metric(third liners score 40-50 points for example), it is no longer true to the label.
Though there are many MANY people that use Top Center, First Liner, #1D, starting goal tender, etc to mean some other breakpoint/threshold that hasn't actually been pinned down.
This combined with a general assumption of a higher skill level league wide (I refer to it as "highlight bias") tends to lead to people saying silly things like "well... there's only 10 or 12 guys I would call true number 1 dmen" or "Ladd's a third liner" and backing it up by saying third liner score 45-50 points.
Way OT I know but it's a fascinating disconnect to me among more average fans. This board and community in general seems to have moved past this, but I still am amazed at how frequently I have to tell people at the pub/etc that 45 points is insane production for a "third liner".
garret9
AKA#VitoCorrelationi
You would want the 30 best in their actual WAR (not a model but true WAR).
The issue though is you will never have a perfect market.
Whether using stats, eyetest, or mix, you will never be able to perfectly determine who the 30 best are. Goal is just get closest to perfect as possible.
This is a good question. But with an obvious answer...whichever team has the most fans vote for their favorite player in the polls section
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