Next year's salary cap

[coachbob]

I keep reading about the cap rising next season (2014-2015). How much do you think it will rise? The Leafs will have about 2.5 million coming off the books from the expiring cap hits of Tucker, Armstrong, Frattin and Scrivens. I would expect a sizeable portion of that will go into a Kessel extension.
Thoughts on the amount of the projected increase?

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[Mikeyg]

3mill

 

[Leafs For Life*]

67Mish is what I'd expect.

 

[Mess]

Hard to tell, because the only official Revenue numbers that the NHL has is the ones from this past season, coming out of a lockout and shortened.

They lowered this years Cap because of decreased Revenue expectations so the rebound process is guesswork before season ticket revenue and other sources start trickling in for the new season ahead.

 

[leafspring*]

The percived losses due to a lock-out didn't take place and the league actually grew revenue. The cap could go up significantly. Maybe $5,000,000???

Here is some revenue/tv viewership #'s etc. This is record breaking stuff from a shortened season. Unbelievable loyalty was shown by hockey fans in north america.http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...offs-help-fans-forgive-the-nhl-for-the-strike

 

[SprDaVE]

It'll be around ~70M.

 

[Grant]

With all the outdoor games revenues will probably be at an all time high

 

[Fogelhund]

It'll be around ~70M.

My thoughts as well, maybe even higher.

 

[Mess]

Leafs currently only have 9 players under contract for next season and $31.5 mil (near 1/2 of current) committed for next year.

Those 9 players are Lupul, Clarkson, JVR, Bozak, Orr, McLaren, Liles, Holzer and Bernier.

So lots of players needing new deals including important big money ones like Kessel, Phaneuf etc to complete a 23 man roster.

Going to need all the cap increase they can get.

 

[nuck]

I keep reading about the cap rising next season (2014-2015). How much do you think it will rise? The Leafs will have about 2.5 million coming off the books from the expiring cap hits of Tucker, Armstrong, Frattin and Scrivens. I would expect a sizeable portion of that will go into a Kessel extension.
Thoughts on the amount of the projected increase?

I am expecting a minimum of $3.5 million and the other $2.5 in buyouts would make $6.0 for new deals. Dion is not likely to see a raise so really only a couple million for Kessel, and a bunch of less expensive dealing. They should be in pretty nice shape, especially if they move Liles. If need be they can defer some of this seasons re-signing costs to next year by giving an extra year two bump to their deals and give them some immediate relief.

 

[Erndog]

It was $72M two seasons ago.... they are having a massive amount of outdoor games....

It will be $72M again. At least.

 

[leafspring*]

Leafs currently only have 9 players under contract for next season and $31.5 mil (near 1/2 of current) committed for next year.

Those 9 players are Lupul, Clarkson, JVR, Bozak, Orr, McLaren, Liles, Holzer and Bernier.

So lots of players needing new deals including important big money ones like Kessel, Phaneuf etc to complete a 23 man roster.

Going to need all the cap increase they can get.

San Jose has Marleau,Thornton,Pavelski and Boyle to sign next year or by next year.

We aren't lookin that bad.

 

[Zonk]

The salary cap was reduced from 57% of total HRR in 2011-12 to 50% in 2014-15. (Last year's salary cap and this year's salary cap are both artificial figures that were agreed to as part of the negotiations.)

A sizable portion of the HRR (40%?) is in Canadian dollars. If the Canadian trades well below par with the US dollar, it will have a significant impact on HRR.

I have no idea what the salary cap will be in 2014-15, but would not count on it being much higher than 2013-14.

 

[King Mapes]

I heard a GM (forget who) said they think its be 73-75 mill. I doubt it though. Probably 68-69

 

[Duffman955]

Im guessing above 70 at least, for sure. League is growing like crazy and the outdoor games will help a ton.

 

[cujoflutie]

I wonder what it would have been for this coming season if there were no lockout? It was 70.3 mil last year.

I'm not sure how much this plays a factor but the big market teams did better on the ice; The past few years have seen Phoenix and Tampa in the final 4 but this last year saw all original 6 teams make the playoffs. Atlanta to Winnipeg should be a source for extra growth as well, especially if the Jets become a playoff team.

 

[Deebo]

I heard a GM (forget who) said they think its be 73-75 mill. I doubt it though. Probably 68-69

The GMs would be basing it on information provided by the NHL, what are you basing your doubts on?

 

[King Mapes]

The GMs would be basing it on information provided by the NHL, what are you basing your doubts on?

Well the NHL would have no clue right now since its based on revenue and it went from 57 to 50 percent. So in order for it to go up 10 mill, revenue would need to be extremely high.

 

[Deebo]

Well the NHL would have no clue right now since its based on revenue and it went from 57 to 50 percent. So in order for it to go up 10 mill, revenue would need to be extremely high.

They certainly would have a very good idea of where revenues are going to be next season. The vast majority of the revenue to the clubs are from known revenue streams. The revenue figures from season ticket sales, tv contracts, sponsership deals, advertising and the like are all known quite accurately right now. These revenue streams make up the bulk of the money that the NHL generates.

My guess is the NHL and the GMs have a very good idea of where the cap will be next season.

 

[King Mapes]

They certainly would have a very good idea of where revenues are going to be next season. The vast majority of the revenue to the clubs are from known revenue streams. The revenue figures from season ticket sales, tv contracts, sponsership deals, advertising and the like are all known quite accurately right now. These revenue streams make up the bulk of the money that the NHL generates.

My guess is the NHL and the GMs have a very good idea of where the cap will be next season.

But there's so many other factors as well. Tickets, merchandise and the outdoor games could play alot into the numbers.

 

[WildcatMapleLeafs28]

My guess would be around 72

 

[Mess]

Well the NHL would have no clue right now since its based on revenue and it went from 57 to 50 percent. So in order for it to go up 10 mill, revenue would need to be extremely high.

Its a valid point ..

$70 mil was based on 57% share.. If you drop that 7 points or 7%, you'd need need a significant increase in HRR to make 50% share = $70 mil of old.

 

[Jtabo]

Its a valid point ..

$70 mil was based on 57% share.. If you drop that 7 points or 7%, you'd need need a significant increase in HRR to make 50% share = $70 mil of old.

To get back to 70 mil in 2014-15 the league would have to see 14% growth since the 2011-11 season. With the amount of outdoor games I don't see this being hard at all. Look at how much the league grew every season after the 04-05 lockout.

 

[Hurt]

Forget next year, what can one expect in five years? 80?

 

[Jtabo]

Forget next year, what can one expect in five years? 80?

It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if were over 90 maybe even close to 100 by the end of this CBA. Obviously a lot of teams will still keep their payroll closer to the floor but teams like Toronto will be able to see huge dividends from the financial prowess.