Value of: Next contract for Jake Guentzel

[Riptide]

Obviously looking to get long deal, not thinking of maximum but maybe around five years? But what will be AAV, somewhere between 5-6M?

That's the realistic number. Will really depend on how much he's worried about "maxing out" and how much he's worried about having a great team around him over that span. But my expectation is that he signs a deal in the low to mid 5m range (5.3-5.5m) over 5/6 years. However if he's able to put up numbers similar to last year's playoffs and wins another cup... I could easily see that number exceeding 6m if he wants to push it.

IDK. Personally I struggle with the idea that a player 'needs' to get more than 5/6m a year. I mean if you're getting that for 6 years, I get that 500k a year adds up. However on the flip side... at what point is 'enough' actually 'enough'? Is 500k-1m (so 3-6m) really going to make that much of a difference when you're talking about a 25/36m contract? Sure it's a chunk, but either way you and your entire future family is set for life as long as you're not an idiot with it.

 

[Riptide]

Some team should consider offer sheeting him

He has to actually sign that contract. Why would he leave Pittsburgh? It's not like Pittsburgh can't afford to give him a very solid contract in the 5-6m range.

 

[Riptide]

Pens can not pay him big bucks unless Kessel is traded after next year. That has been my thinking as Pens need to use him to get picks and prospects. Plus more cap room and Kessel will be attractive due to a 5.1 million salary his last three years. Hornqvist at over 5 and Jake over 5 with Kessel and Geno and Crosby is to much. No team can keep everyone. Plus Sprong, Rust, Hornqvist are top 9 RW's to fill the bill. Plus they need to extend Sheahan, Rust, Oleksiac as well. Pens will spend to the cap but still need to manage assets to continue to ice a SC contender.

Bullshit. Hagelin's expiring contract alone accounts for almost the entire raise that Guentzel will be getting. Sure we might have to move on from someone... but that someone would be someone like Rust or Sheary... not Kessel.

This team is still in a very good place cap wise.

 

[chethejet]

Yes but Pens are locked in with 5 d men for at least two years. Extend Oleksiak and trade Hunwick helps. Forwards with anticipated extensions for Rust, Sheahan, and then Jake is tight. Doable but tight. So yes Hags is gone ....who replaces him? That is a cost. Yes Reese, Sprong can be on lower cost ELC contracts but still Hornqvist, Jake, Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, are 36 million and you still have Brassard, Sheary, Rust, Sheahan and Hags or replacemnent 16 or so. Yes that is OK, but as I posted, it makes sense to use assets to add to the draft and prospect pool as well. So who can be moved? For this year Sheary and Hunwick for picks ect.

 

[domaug]

Pens should not offer too much , even i could score 20 goals playing along side of Crosby .

i strongly doubt that.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Maybe something similar to Tyler Johnson's deal. Slightly less term, a bit more AAV.

So roughly $5 to 5.5 million per year for 5 or 6 years.

 

[Starat327]

i strongly doubt that.

If you were able to play the Hakstol coached Flyers, who tries to match Valteri Filpulla up against Crosby, i wouldnt doubt it at all, sadly.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If you were able to play the Hakstol coached Flyers, who tries to match Valteri Filpulla up against Crosby, i wouldnt doubt it at all, sadly.

I mean, 10 other forwards (apart from Crosby and Guentzel) played against the Hakstol coached Flyers. None of them did what Guentzel did.

I know you're joking (or at least hope you are), but I think people finding reasons to dismiss what Guentzel can do don't see him enough to understand he's not a "product" of anyone.

 

[66-30-33]

6X6 and i'd be fine with it.

 

[orby]

6 years, somewhere from 5.75-6.25 mil per

 

[Sasso09]

Someone is going to overpay him @6. He is a 4.5M player tops without Pittsburgh. Just my opinion

 

[PensandCaps]

Someone is going to overpay him @6. He is a 4.5M player tops without Pittsburgh. Just my opinion

4.5 tops is ridiculous. I think that's his bottom....

I hope we can get him at 5.5.


You can say "he plays with Sid" all you want but he doesn't get #1 PP time..only when Horny is hurt. So all of his production is at EV strength or on PP2. On a less deep team he would be on the #1 PP and put up similar or better overall numbers.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Someone is going to overpay him @6. He is a 4.5M player tops without Pittsburgh. Just my opinion

Maybe if this was still 2015. Player salaries have risen to the point where $4.5 million is roughly what you'd pay for a high-end 3rd liner or very low-end 2nd liner with not much upside.

 

[Sasso09]

4.5 tops is ridiculous. I think that's his bottom....

I hope we can get him at 5.5.


You can say "he plays with Sid" all you want but he doesn't get #1 PP time..only when Horny is hurt. So all of his production is at EV strength or on PP2. On a less deep team he would be on the #1 PP and put up similar or better overall numbers.

He plays with Sid.

Remember that time Chris Kunitz beat out at least 20 forwards better than him for an Olympic spot on the back of inflated Crosby stats?

 

[Sasso09]

Maybe if this was still 2015. Player salaries have risen to the point where $4.5 million is roughly what you'd pay for a high-end 3rd liner or very low-end 2nd liner with not much upside.

You have a legit point... maybe I'm underselling him at 4.5

 

[Fatty McLardy]

Someone is going to overpay him @6. He is a 4.5M player tops without Pittsburgh. Just my opinion

ya your opinion was also how he was nowhere close to Konecny...fact of the matter is, you're salty he shat on the flyers.

But Hell, i'd flip the f*** out in excitement if the pens can extend him for 4.5

 

[PensandCaps]

He plays with Sid.

Remember that time Chris Kunitz beat out at least 20 forwards better than him for an Olympic spot on the back of inflated Crosby stats?

Kunitz played on the PP though. So bad example.

 

[Starat327]

I mean, 10 other forwards (apart from Crosby and Guentzel) played against the Hakstol coached Flyers. None of them did what Guentzel did.

I know you're joking (or at least hope you are), but I think people finding reasons to dismiss what Guentzel can do don't see him enough to understand he's not a "product" of anyone.

You are correct, I was 100% joking. Guentzel is a good player in his own right.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

5-6 million over 5-6 years

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He plays with Sid.

Remember that time Chris Kunitz beat out at least 20 forwards better than him for an Olympic spot on the back of inflated Crosby stats?

I don't think Kunitz is a good example of a "product of Crosby" either because he played on Anaheim's top line as well when they won the Cup.

Kunitz, in his prime, was the type of complimentary top liner who could do the dirty work and still chip in ~25 goals and ~55 points besides from being physical and defensively sound.

 

[T1K]

“X” player plays with Crosby so he isn’t worth “X”

That’s literally how every Pens thread on the main board goes

 

[philip]

Honestly, I feel you take him out of that team and he's probably a 30-40 point range guy maybe worth 3.5 - 4m maybe. So I hope the Pens overpay a bit, but I know they won't. They'll either get a big discount because he knows how good he's got it there and wants to stay, or they let him walk and replace him with the next over-performing kid.

 

[JimmyTwoTimes]

“X” player plays with Crosby so he isn’t worth “X”

That’s literally how every Pens thread on the main board goes

Except in Crosby threads..where he is a product of a solid Pens team

 

[Big McLargehuge]

Some team should consider offer sheeting him

That would involve him going into the 2019 off-season without a contract...knowing the Penguins this'll get taken care of by American Thanksgiving.

The posts saying he'd wither without Sid are cute. Guentzel's #1 asset is his hockey sense, it's not like his job is to smack in empty-netted one-timer. He sees the game like a coach...which makes sense when you look at his dad. Did he land in the best possible situation? Yes. That doesn't mean he shouldn't be rewarded for taking the brass ring and making the best of an awesome situation.

6x5.5-6 wouldn't surprise me in the least. The Pens can make that fit.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Honestly, I feel you take him out of that team and he's probably a 30-40 point range guy maybe worth 3.5 - 4m maybe. So I hope the Pens overpay a bit, but I know they won't. They'll either get a big discount because he knows how good he's got it there and wants to stay, or they let him walk and replace him with the next over-performing kid.

Can you list the number of scrubs who've played on Crosby's line that have:

1-Scored 22 goals and 48 points in their first full NHL season
2-Lead the playoffs in goal scoring as a rookie, then followed it up by registering 13 points in 6 games the following playoffs

Because apparently every single "30-40 point range guy" who plays with Crosby puts up these numbers.