News from Around the AHL/NHL/KHL 2019-20 Pt. VI

[IslandersFan17]

I'm sure its been stated already, but this is the same Marner who supposedly turned down offer sheets to stay in Toronto, yet took them to the woodshed with that payday.

Now, hes their whipping post/scapegoat, and you have to wonder, exactly what the allure was to stay there?!?

I do think the Leafs could absolutely get something pretty decent for Marner, but trading him one year into his deal, while cap strapped, with his contract the way it is, and Dubas not being keen at trading...they are more likely to get high picks & quality prospects than actual legit (roster) assets (IMO).

Funny part is, their fan base might see that as a win, cause it would open up cap space... since they assume they can just sign Pietrangelo, as if he's just dying to play there.

 

[danteipp]

I love the Leafs fans that are convinced they’re going to get a haul for Marner at 11 million. With a flat cap they’ll be lucky to get fair value with a cap neutral deal.

The market might prove us wrong, but I would be surprised if the Leafs get fair value for that contract. If they are going to get fair value, I assume they will have to retain at least $2 million per in AAV (maybe even closer to $3-4 million) or run that contract through a third-party team, who will retain $1-1.5 million per year.

It is possible, although it will be hard to find the right trade partner. Essentially they need to find a team like Detroit, who is desperate for offensive talent, but I assume Stevie Y will take Boy Genius to the cleaners. Or figure out a way to dump some cap money on a team like Ottawa, but send more real money back to their dirtbag owner, who will then be fine with absorbing the cap hit.

 

[Isles Junkie]

Sadly (for Leaf fans), Snow and Weight would be an upgrade to their current duo in what they need. Weight is the master of run and gun so their offensive stats would be even better. That's all their fans care about anyway, Matthews has elite p/60! Snow's one strength was negotiating contracts, Dubas is absolute shit at it.

They'd still be a joke, but probably less than they currently are. Oh yeah, EAT SHIT you frauds. Haha.

I do give credit to Snow for his ability to sign his own guys past their ELC to team friendly deals. However, I don't think it would work in Toronto. I think that the "us vs them" mentality that permeates the NYI really helped GMG when it came to negotiating contracts. I can't see how that would work in hockey's biggest market. Or maybe I'm wrong and Snow is just a fantastic negotiator. I mean he got those 2 chicks once, so maybe he does know what he's doing?

 

[Doshell Propivo]

I do give credit to Snow for his ability to sign his own guys past their ELC to team friendly deals. However, I don't think it would work in Toronto. I think that the "us vs them" mentality that permeates the NYI really helped GMG when it came to negotiating contracts. I can't see how that would work in hockey's biggest market. Or maybe I'm wrong and Snow is just a fantastic negotiator. I mean he got those 2 chicks once, so maybe he does know what he's doing?

I think it was three actually.

 

[danteipp]

I think it was three actually.

There were three girls in the photo, but ask yourself this, who took the photo? Maybe girl #4?!

 

[Doshell Propivo]

There were three girls in the photo, but ask yourself this, who took the photo? Maybe girl #4?!

Capuano?

 

[Hunn]

That is exactly what I was thinking. If the Jets get the 1OA, maybe the Isles can deal for one of Laine or Ehlers by making a good, old-fashioned hockey trade by moving a quality defenseman for a forward.

I mention those two, because I don't think the Jets will move Connor and would prefer to move Laine (probably figuring it will be hard to extend him when he is due), who I like as a pure goal scorer, but I really like Ehlers. I think he is underrated and gets lost in the shuffle of those quality, young forwards. Ehlers top-end speed would fit perfectly alongside Barzal.

I do see two problems though -

First, Chevy appears to be hard to deal with. The only GM he seems to make material trades with is Gorton of the Rangers, making the Hayes and Trouba trades.

Second, they are probably looking for a 2C as the most immediate need and the Isles don't match up great there. If the Jets can find a 2C elsewhere, then I can see a better fit. Of course I hope that Chevy isn't fooled into thinking that Strome or Chytil are legit 2C's.

Otherwise, I like a lot of the Jets players and can root for them to win the lottery. They also have trouble attracting outside talent, so they have to draft well and have that in common with the Isles. At least until Belmont is up and running hopefully.

Minnesota would also e a good destination. If they manage to add Laf, Kaprizov and the Penguins first rounder (assuming Rutherford surrenders it), they could come away with three solid pieces for their core.

Nashville would also be a "neutral" destination and, if Edmonton wins yet again, maybe we finally see the NHL set some limitations on how many times a tem can move up in a given timeframe.

They have literally 2 NHL-proven defensemen under contract right now. If D is not their top priority, I don't know what else.

 

[leeroggy]

Capuano?

Ghislaine Maxwell?

 

[Richie Daggers Crime]

They have literally 2 NHL-proven defensemen under contract right now. If D is not their top priority, I don't know what else.

$10m per year to Taylor Hall.

 

[PK Cronin]

The great stat wizzard Dom Luszczyszyn had the Leafs with the highest probability of winning Stanley Cup among all 16 teams of the best-of-5 qualifying round:

Here we see the great and powerful Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, Oilers, and Wild get eliminated. He got the majority wrong. I'm pretty sure our annual participants in the Bracket Challenge have a higher success rate than this guy. Many people have brought up his charts are a basis for their predictions, they're incredibly flawed and always have been. He's constantly adjusting his models so they're meaningless.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

This short off-season is the dawn of the stagnant cap. A third of the league's teams (Isles included) basically cannot - as is - keep their own RFAs, much less re-sign their own UFAs, without exceeding the cap. Another third just cannot add to their team through free agency.

It's going to be a purely seller's market and with so few buyers, they're going to rule the roost.

You could color me extremely surprised if, like many Leafs fans hope, that team can send off the 10 M+ cap hit that is Mitch Marner and get anything resembling a fair return back. And even the bottom feeders are going to be able to demand that Toronto take back a bad contract or two in return.

If all the GMs play their cards right, Toronto is running into some serious problems.

Of course, I could be wrong.

 

[Chapin Landvogt]

Here we see the great and powerful Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, Oilers, and Wild get eliminated. He got the majority wrong. I'm pretty sure our annual participants in the Bracket Challenge have a higher success rate than this guy. Many people have brought up his charts are a basis for their predictions, they're incredibly flawed and always have been. He's constantly adjusting his models so they're meaningless.

It's a good thing for him that he's also incredibly humble and doesn't ever give the impression that he thinks has everything, including non-sports related topics, all sussed out.

Those too are very endearing qualities.

 

[periferal]

They’re not going to get anything without taking significant salary back or retaining. No team is going to have 11 mil in space sitting around this off season.

Come on...You know it's not that simple. The Leafs are desperate to shed any salary so they would take on a decent amount of cap his back so it wouldn't be just 11M going one way.

I'm not saying this would happen or even discussing fair value, but just as a philosophy of a deal if the Leafs dealt Marner to the Devils for Zajac, Carrick, and a 1st rounder (they have 3) that would net the Leafs 3.7M in a trade while the Devils would be taking on only 3.7M.

I mentioned the Devils/Zajac since he's 35 and they are in a total rebuild so they don't need him, his contract, and I'm sure he'd waive his NMC to go to a playoff team. That said there are plenty of other teams out there that would love a 23 year old who's basically been a point a game player his 4 seasons in the NHL. As long as they can dump a bunch of salary off their books which is really not that hard when you're gaining the best asset in the deal, Marner would be heavily desired by many teams.

 

[Hunn]

Here we see the great and powerful Maple Leafs, Penguins, Predators, Oilers, and Wild get eliminated. He got the majority wrong. I'm pretty sure our annual participants in the Bracket Challenge have a higher success rate than this guy. Many people have brought up his charts are a basis for their predictions, they're incredibly flawed and always have been. He's constantly adjusting his models so they're meaningless.

The point is that this is a trend in analytics: somehow they all (mostly) think that 26th GA/GP team is a Cup contender. I don't get it. All bottom-10 defense teams are out, 9 out of top-10 are still playing (the only exception is Winnipeg who are 10th).

 

[Tres Peleches]

The point is that this is a trend in analytics: somehow they all (mostly) think that 26th GA/GP team is a Cup contender. I don't get it. All bottom-10 defense teams are out, 9 out of top-10 are still playing (the only exception is Winnipeg who are 10th).

Analytics is heavily Skewed towards scoring goals, not preventing them.

I’m also 100% on board with the theory that analytics are game-changers in things like baseball, where it’s one on one competition between pitcher and batter, and the pitcher and batter study each other’s tendencies. If you know a batter hits significantly better on inside fastballs, but struggles against offspeed pitches, guess what they’re going to throw?

In a game like hockey? There’s far too many variables and too many line mates and too many things that happen over the course of the game too quickly that make it almost impossible to rely on completely. Can they be used as a guide to how you should approach the game? Yeah, and they should be.

but to direct how to build a team? Dubious, Dubas

 

[PK Cronin]

The point is that this is a trend in analytics: somehow they all (mostly) think that 26th GA/GP team is a Cup contender. I don't get it. All bottom-10 defense teams are out, 9 out of top-10 are still playing (the only exception is Winnipeg who are 10th).

It just confirms to me that the fancy stats are missing something important.

 

[Lame Lambert]

Come on...You know it's not that simple. The Leafs are desperate to shed any salary so they would take on a decent amount of cap his back so it wouldn't be just 11M going one way.

I'm not saying this would happen or even discussing fair value, but just as a philosophy of a deal if the Leafs dealt Marner to the Devils for Zajac, Carrick, and a 1st rounder (they have 3) that would net the Leafs 3.7M in a trade while the Devils would be taking on only 3.7M.

I mentioned the Devils/Zajac since he's 35 and they are in a total rebuild so they don't need him, his contract, and I'm sure he'd waive his NMC to go to a playoff team. That said there are plenty of other teams out there that would love a 23 year old who's basically been a point a game player his 4 seasons in the NHL. As long as they can dump a bunch of salary off their books which is really not that hard when you're gaining the best asset in the deal, Marner would be heavily desired by many teams.

We’re saying the same thing

I’m saying that this notion that they’re going to trade Marner for a #1 D and picks is a pipe dream. They’re going to have to move him in a package with several roster players and potentially a bad contract going the other way. Nylander should be easier to move, but they’re not going to get the type of defenseman they need.

 

[periferal]

We’re saying the same thing

I’m saying that this notion that they’re going to trade Marner for a #1 D and picks is a pipe dream. They’re going to have to move him in a package with several roster players and potentially a bad contract going the other way. Nylander should be easier to move, but they’re not going to get the type of defenseman they need.

I hear you and mostly agree. All I'll say is that take a look at Vegas' D-corps. Honestly on paper nothing spectacular, and stats-wise/GA they are about average. Sometimes the sum is greater than the parts.

Not saying it's easy, but Toronto doesn't need to trade for the Doughty/Peitrangelo's of the world. They just need a steady group of D-men, and if the team needs offense and can make the numbers work, it would be possible to get a Theodore/Schmidt type of D-man plus more for Marner.

That said, they're problems go beyond just their D. There is minimal to no heart/character/leadership/grit on their team. Without some level of those intangibles you're not going to win in the end.

 

[TMI]

Playoffs are so often more about will than skill.. obviously TML lack enough will to get the job done as there is a ton of skill. That's where 3rd and 4th lines are soooo valuable. In the playoffs, you cannot rely on a line, or a line and a half to carry you through. For one game, maybe 2, but in even a best of 5 you need contributions from everywhere. And that's not even taking into account the D, where the Leafs have serious problems to overcome to even be considered serious threats.
Not incoincidentally, that's exactly why I love our chances. Top to bottom, 4 lines and D and goaltending, we can run with anyone. Especially under these crazy, but equal, circumstances.

 

[JKP]

The great stat wizzard Dom Luszczyszyn had the Leafs with the highest probability of winning Stanley Cup among all 16 teams of the best-of-5 qualifying round:

Must have borrowed Dubas’ excel sheet...

 

[periferal]

Nervous about this draft lottery...


#Norangers

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Nervous about this draft lottery...


#Norangers

Was just about to post this. Rooting for Nashville or Winnipeg.

 

[19 in a row]

amazing that I am feeling this much tension right now.. No Rangers , no Ranger , no Rangers, or leafs or pens.

 

[19 in a row]

Was just about to post this. Rooting for Nashville or Winnipeg.

I am rooting for Minnesota. so I know they won't get it.

 

[periferal]