Post-Series Talk: New York Rangers defeat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2, advance to ECF

[SnowblindNYR]

They objectively don't.

So far through the playoffs the Rangers are 14 out of 16 teams in HDCF%.


Link?

The sample size of the Rangers having great regular season teams and making it far in the playoffs is over 280 games. I find it hilarious when people act like they've had a fluke 10 game run.

 

[Shane Diesel]

The sample size of the Rangers having great regular season teams and making it far in the playoffs is over 280 games. I find it hilarious when people act like they've had a fluke 10 game run.

Where did I call it a fluke? My point is and remains the goaltending in NY is excellent and covers up a lot of the team's problems. It's a very simple concept. But keep building those strawmen.

The numbers are quite stark on this topic.

 

[Mirka the Turka]

Congrats to the Rangers

As a Devils fan, I say you guys are probably gonna win the cup this year. Exactly 30 years after your last one, I think it has been prophesied.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Where did I call it a fluke? My point is and remains the goaltending in NY is excellent and covers up a lot of the team's problems. It's a very simple concept. But keep building those strawmen.

The numbers are quite stark on this topic.

Goaltending is good but they have scored 3+ goals in 9 of 10 games.

 

[Tawnos]

Link?

Example from game 4 of the series:



That's the CEO of Clear Sight Analytics. Yes, he's a Rangers guy, but his company is hired out by other teams so his model isn't biased towards them. They account for pre-shot puck movement and a bunch of other stuff public models don't. Also, yes that's at all strengths. Because he's a Rangers guy, he always posts this report. Even in good games, the Rangers are often out-chancing teams in high %, close to even in medium %, but getting killed in low % and their expected goals is often better than the opponent like you see in that report.

https://naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20232024&game=30224

That's the same game on NST, which comes from public data. They had xGF% at all strengths for the Canes 58.78%. HDCF% at 66.67%.

Valiquette doesn't post the 5v5 numbers, because it's proprietary data, but you can still see how there's a difference between public and private analytics and how the private ones treat the Rangers better than the public ones.

 

[Rsswmu]

Where did I call it a fluke? My point is and remains the goaltending in NY is excellent and covers up a lot of the team's problems. It's a very simple concept. But keep building those strawmen.

The numbers are quite stark on this topic.

We can argue which models are good but the Hurricanes are analytic darlings. The Rangers playing them in 60% of their games this playoffs is going to mess with their analytics.

There are some models that have the Hurricanes dominating that series and some that do not. I posted one of the later here. Which has the Hurricanes goaltending equal to the Rangers in the series.

 

[Maliks PlusMinus]

I think Orlov is a good player, but he had a rough series.
Everybody blaming the goalie on the first and fair enough he looked as clumsy as ever, but it was a terrible play by the guy who passed to Panarin who I think was Orlov (?) who made a lot of crucial errors this series including one or two where Chatfield saved his ass

 

[TGWL]

Still don't think it was a penalty on Staal

As a NYR fan, I agree it was a soft call. However, I don't think Zibanejad tried to sell it. The player is a wet vegan noodle compared to Staal. Players get away with this all the time, but there's really no reason for Staal to do this other than "I see other players doing it." His stick shouldn't vertical like that when all he has to do is out muscle a player near the boards.

While I agree it was soft, I don't think this specific play ended their season. I think they were too flat and content with the score during the momentum swing in the 3rd. I wouldn't put this game on officiating regardless which side came out on top.

 

[qwertyaas]

View attachment 872253
We can argue which models are good but the Hurricanes are analytic darlings. The Rangers playing them in 60% of their games this playoffs is going to mess with their analytics.

There are some models that have the Hurricanes dominating that series and some that do not. I posted one of the later here. Which has the Hurricanes goaltending equal to the Rangers in the series.

51 inner slot shots on 157 total shots

49 inner slot shots on 224 total shots

Total shots never tell the whole story. Possession time, sure. But if you're using that time to create constant low quality scoring chances, analytics could be thrown off from actuals.

 

[leafsfan5]

I want to squash one sour grape I had from the series two years ago: everyone claimed Carolina would have won if they had Andersen in net. I think this proves he wasn't the difference-maker between these two teams.

If anyone believes Frederick Andersen would be a difference maker in net come playoff time they're correct

He'd just be a difference-maker for the other team

 

[Tawnos]

51 inner slot shots on 157 total shots

49 inner slot shots on 224 total shots

Total shots never tell the whole story. Possession time, sure. But if you're using that time to create constant low quality scoring chances, analytics could be thrown off from actuals.

I do think the Hurricanes backed off of their low % shot spamming mentality after game 3. It was one of the adjustments that really worked and allowed them to get themselves back into the series.

 

[pld459666]

If Shesterkin failed to block a centering feed through the crease like on the winning goal, I'd be pissed. When it has happened with Shesterkin in the past, I have been.

How about Chatfield not covering his man there.

The most elite level goalies fail to make that play you describe more times than not.

It's not like he was planted there at the post waiting. He had to track from left to right following Roslovic then back from right to left following Lindgren.

Aside from the 2nd goal, orlov handing the puck to Panarin and Kreider getting position on Chatfield are more at fault on those goals.

 

[qwertyaas]

I do think the Hurricanes backed off of their low % shot spamming mentality after game 3. It was one of the adjustments that really worked and allowed them to get themselves back into the series.

Fair point. They adjusted after the first 3 games.

Case in point, the shot totals.

I'm interested to see Vally's stats from last night given the amount of posts the Canes hit. Wouldn't be surprised to be skewed to the Canes.

 

[Tawnos]

As a NYR fan, I agree it was a soft call. However, I don't think Zibanejad tried to sell it. The player is a wet vegan noodle compared to Staal. Players get away with this all the time, but there's really no reason for Staal to do this other than "I see other players doing it." His stick shouldn't vertical like that when all he has to do is out muscle a player near the boards.

While I agree it was soft, I don't think this specific play ended their season. I think they were too flat and content with the score during the momentum swing in the 3rd. I wouldn't put this game on officiating regardless which side came out on top.

I think it was kind of soft too and Zibanejad may have sold it. But you know what? I don't care. Maybe if the Hurricanes weren't masters of "legal interference" and "commit so many penalties, they can't call them all," I would have more sympathy for them. There were probably a dozen times the Canes could have been called for that kind of obstruction-type stuff. I even remember one play where Fox was going to the defensive corner to retrieve a puck and the Canes player, who was behind him, literally grabbed Fox's arm to slow him down.

How about Chatfield not covering his man there.

The most elite level goalies fail to make that play you describe more times than not.

It's not like he was planted there at the post waiting. He had to track from left to right following Roslovic then back from right to left following Lindgren.

Aside from the 2nd goal, orlov handing the puck to Panarin and Kreider getting position on Chatfield are more at fault on those goals.

I'm not saying Andersen is the only one at fault, but he still could have prevented it.

 

[pld459666]

I'm not saying Andersen is the only one at fault, but he still could have prevented it.

Possible, but unlikely IMHO

 

[Neil Racki]

Rangers feel like the team of destiny this year.

No injuries. Shesterkin is on fire. Pucks finding their way into the net. Ability to score a couple fast.

Defensemen playing defense seems to be the achilies heel.

 

[Kranix]

I was starting to think my Rod the Bod avatar had enough magic in it to force a comeback game 7 win for the Canes.

 

[Nyr88nyg]

Just checking in to see how Debbie and Fishstick fans are doing today. We know you’re lurking

 

[yrrebbor]

Rangers were the better team for the first 18 minutes of the 1st period, and then clearly got things done in the 3rd. No, the shot totals dont tell the story.

I watched the first on my phone without sound as my toddler was drifting off to sleep, and it really looked like they dominated despite the shots being 8-3 or so.

 

[Profet]

Rangers feel like the team of destiny this year.

No injuries. Shesterkin is on fire. Pucks finding their way into the net. Ability to score a couple fast.

Defensemen playing defense seems to be the achilies heel.

• Chytil is out with an injury.
• Fox is playing on one leg and looks absolutely hobbled.

 

[NoVaCapsFan]

Congrats to the Rangers

As a Devils fan, I say you guys are probably gonna win the cup this year. Exactly 30 years after your last one, I think it has been prophesied.

After we got swept, I resolved that NYR are the one team I absolutely couldn’t stand to win the Cup. I made a similar resolution last year about VGK. So yeah, it is written.

PS: They showed real grit last night. It was an admirable performance.

 

[Kranix]

2 posts in the third by Canes. Would have put the game away. One of those would have deflated the rags enough that Kreider wouldn't have felt the need to go nuclear. That's the kind of playoff luck Rod the Bod has.

 

[Shane Diesel]

Valiquette doesn't post the 5v5 numbers, because it's proprietary data, but you can still see how there's a difference between public and private analytics and how the private ones treat the Rangers better than the public ones.

So one example and you chose a Ranger fan on top if it.

I think you can say confidently you have one private model that shows the Rangers have better numbers than the public ones, but implying all models would have the same conclusion is an insane stretch.

View attachment 872253
We can argue which models are good but the Hurricanes are analytic darlings. The Rangers playing them in 60% of their games this playoffs is going to mess with their analytics.

No kidding, playing against superior talent does that.

 

[Tawnos]

So one example and you chose a Ranger fan on top if it.

I think you can say confidently you have one private model that shows the Rangers have better numbers than the public ones, but implying all models would have the same conclusion is an insane stretch.

I don't think it's a stretch at all. Valiquette isn't doing anything especially different from what other private company or team analytics do. CSA was just the lowest hanging fruit to illustrate it. But a few posts below mine, someone posted another model that also had the Rangers ahead in expected goals.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

A lot of "the Panthers will mop the floor with the Rangers" takes. Meanwhile the Panthers series is 3-2 against a significantly worse team.