New Redline Report

[firstroundbust]

blah blah blah I dont like Phil Kessel.

in summary

 

[GaryU]

Actually Timmy, the BUST portion was directed at all who continue to invent reasons for Kessel to drop. Had nothing to do with the rankings.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Red Line.

Since this thread is called "New Redline Report" I figured that the "they" in my post was fairly obvious.

That's what I thought. I just wasn't aware that they put out a draft preview in addition to their regular monthly reports.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Defensive ability, and maturity are something that can be learned. Pure goal scoring is harder to develop. For that reason I like Kessel. The guy is fast, has a laser for a shot, and can make some nice passes.

It was frustrating as a Gophers fan to see him at the end of the year, but he's only 17. A lot of teams also passed on Patrick O'Sullivan, and he has done well in the AHL, who has similar attributes.

But then again, I have never seen Staal play, so its just a Minnesota rube's opinon.

No hockey rubes in Minny. That's a cool state. One of my honourary provinces of Canada along with Michigan, Wisconsin and Massachusetts. Great hockey states.

 

[orangeandblack]

No hockey rubes in Minny. That's a cool state. One of my honourary provinces of Canada along with Michigan, Wisconsin and Massachusetts. Great hockey states.

you should probably add new york to that too.

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

you should probably add new york to that too.

Yep. Some of my ancestors are from upstate New York. Let's add them, too. And is it just me, or does it seem like Jersey is starting to produce more hockey players? Are they suburban Philadelphia kids?

 

[inferno98]

Yeah Ryan and Sanguinetti are from jersey near philly, kolarik who is at michigan is from right out side philly, there are a couple Jersey Kids that played NTDP this year Popko and Atkinson, im sure there are others

 

[timlap]

Actually Timmy, the BUST portion was directed at all who continue to invent reasons for Kessel to drop. Had nothing to do with the rankings.

I sort of thought that's what you meant as I was replying.

I don't think there are many people who think Kessel is a future bust, but I suppose they are a vocal minority. I remember a similar lot constantly attacking Spezza a few years back. I have a general policy of ignoring the people who try to combat prospect-hype by going to the other extreme.

 

[katodelder]

From redline:

....Francois Bouchard: Mostly invisible at World U-18s....



didn't he get 8 points?

 

[Chief]

...obviously CSS is "projecting" more on Staal while Redline is more into the moment of what they are doing NOW.

Or Redline could just have a better projection for Kessel.

--Kessel is a risk to go ahead of the more complete players...

Just because a player might currently have a more complete game at 17 or 18 does not mean that he will continue to develop that game until he's a "great" complete player. I'm not predicting the following but just using the names as examples: Kessel could develop his less complete game and wind up an offensive force like Kovalchuk or Kovalev or DeMitra, while Staal could stall (sorry, bad pun) and wind up the next Chad Kilger or Wayne Primeau.

 

[Chief]

Going back to the '04 draft, Schremp apparently ruffled some feathers in some of his interviews, and pissed off some people who would be making decisions on his future on draft day. Was that smart? Absolutely not, but what we have to keep in mind is these kids are 17 and 18 years old, and have some big time options coming their way. Not to mention, as in Schremps case, that there is still time for them to mature and if put in the right situation use the negative press as fuel to improve on and off the ice.

So I don't think that GMs worth their salt are going to blow off a young kid who has enormous potential and make an impact at the NHL level, just based on a poor interview. But as always that's just my opinion.

Well Puckhead, your opinion is backed up by at least a few NHL team officials involved in the draft. In last season's Young Guns EDGe, we had a feature story that was the result of interviews with various NHL team officials and not one of them said they put a lot of stock in personal interviews. That's not to say they are meaningless but they wouldn't cause a huge rise or drop in rankings. They also didn't place great emphasis on playoffs, combines or personal workouts. The feature story is being posted on our site, with a different installment each week for the next 4 weeks. Here's the link to the first installment: http://younggunshockey.com/monthly.htm

 

[Chief]

Not to go too far off topic, but when is the EDGe coming out for this draft? I've been looking forward to getting it.

Back on topic, that's a pretty good list. I think it's a reflection of the depth of forwards in this draft, and how it's really just one difference that seems to separate them.

We'll have the 06 edition completed and posted by the end of the month.

One other thing that I find strange but common enough is some people seem to consider a #5 or 6 ranking some kind of insult. There ain't nothing shabby about being ranked #5. Heck, there's nothing shabby about being ranked #25.

 

[Chief]

Chief- I've been big on Okposo for most of the year, especially after watching him in the USHL All-Star Game, but RLR, while they haven't had him in their top-10 all year, started him there and have had nary a bad word about him all season. The actual ranking is much less important than what the reports say, and when I go back and read anything Red Line put out on him all season (which was quite a lot), they are always impressed with him and mention that he continuously showed off new skills and traits not in evidence the previous year at Shattuck's and earlier this season.

I don't doubt what you're saying and agree with most of it but I still don't understand the original quote which makes it seem like it's some late-breaking news that Okposo could go top 10. I'll leave it at that.

 

[Hiishawk]

Chief is correct. Most hockey people have had Okposo top 10 since the new year.
Redline is right on Bouchard- he got 5 or 6 points vs. Norway, mostly by dishing the puck over to Maxwll on the point on the PP. After that he was a non-factor with the play passing him by in both directions with frustrating regularity.

 

[Hiishawk]

Well Puckhead, your opinion is backed up by at least a few NHL team officials involved in the draft. In last season's Young Guns EDGe, we had a feature story that was the result of interviews with various NHL team officials and not one of them said they put a lot of stock in personal interviews. That's not to say they are meaningless but they wouldn't cause a huge rise or drop in rankings. They also didn't place great emphasis on playoffs, combines or personal workouts. The feature story is being posted on our site, with a different installment each week for the next 4 weeks. Here's the link to the first installment: http://younggunshockey.com/monthly.htm

Most of the kids are coached in what to say at the interviews which leads to a bunch of cliches or set answers. Most don't want to screw up, so they stick to pretty much prescripted lines. BUT, if a team has two propects rated equally, then the feeling they get from a guy at the interview could well help them make the final choice.

 

[Kirk- NEHJ]

I don't doubt what you're saying and agree with most of it but I still don't understand the original quote which makes it seem like it's some late-breaking news that Okposo could go top 10. I'll leave it at that.

If you read it closely (and actually talk to Kyle about it, which I have), he's essentially saying that if there were any doubts before about Okposo being a top-10, they are now gone with the performance in the USHL playoffs. I can tell you that in a personal chat I had with Kyle back in October, he was talking to me about Okposo being a top-10 pick. So, thanks for the input, but for those of us who have been reading Red Line all year, it's pretty obvious that they've been high on him from the beginning.

In any case, this isn't worth splitting hairs with, especially since you yourself put out a draft/prospect publication (didn't you used to subscribe to Red Line?) so I don't think it's a stretch to say that you probably have a bit of an agenda here to throw out a remark that detracts from Woodlief's credibility on the subject.

And I'll leave it at that.

 

[orangeandblack]

Yep. Some of my ancestors are from upstate New York. Let's add them, too. And is it just me, or does it seem like Jersey is starting to produce more hockey players? Are they suburban Philadelphia kids?

hockey is definitely gotten alot better around here. theres over 100 high school teams in philly now. theres too many junior teams, but more and more talented players are coming from the area. its just a shame no scouts ever come to pa/jersey so our players are only seen out of the area. it really starts to show when it comes to ushl and ohl drafts.

bobby ryan is from right outside philly
sanguinetti is from south jersey, 20 minutes from philly
foligno grew up around harrisburgh which is 1.5 hours from philly
atkinson and squires are north jersey kids
popko is central jersey, but played on the flyers quebec team not the devils
john murray is from lancaster 1.5 hours from philly
vanreimsdyk is from central jersey, closer to philly, about 1.25 hours
shane connelly is 5 minutes outside philly
colby cohen is from 15 minutes outside philly
david kolomaitis and kevin shattenkirk are north jersey kids

 

[Offside]

Chief, I have seen Tlusty on every list but yours. Any reason why?

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

I have a general policy of ignoring the people who try to combat prospect-hype by going to the other extreme.

That's very wise. It's amazing how many people get their knickers in a knot when their favourite prospect is ranked below a guy they don't think should be ranked higher.

It's stranged how getting hyped can work against a player in some people's eyes. Really, the player has nothing to do with the hype he gets. People should form their opinions on players regardless of hype.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Rising: Milan Lucic?!

Woe betide the team that wastes a draft pick on him...

What are you kidding me? This guy is the new future mold for NHL enforcers. He is already 1 of the top heavyweights in the Dub and his skating has improved alot since the start of the year. Reminds me alot of Todd Fedoruk with better skills at this point.

Ya why anyone would waste a draft pick on a guy who will can skate with your top guys chip in 25-30 points a year and protect them at the same time is beyond me

 

[Guy Legend]

Very suprised to see Kessel and Staal's positions...

 

[Ryan Van Horne]

Very suprised to see Kessel and Staal's positions...

I'm not really. The only certainty, if there is such a thing in an entry draft, is that Erik Johnson will go No. 1 to St. Louis, No. 2 to Pittsburgh, or some team that really wants a stud defenceman will trade up to get him. After that, I think any of the top five skater prospects: Kessel, Backstrom, Toews, Staal, Mueller could go in any order. It's a question of what teams like and what they project from them in the future.

If I 've learned one thing following this board and reading other sources is that there is a wide range of opinions on these guys. If there is such a wide range of opinion among amateur observers and professional scouting services, there is bound to be similar variance among professional teams.

This doesn't even take into account surprises such as somebody going for a goalie early, or reaching for a guy. This happens. A reach could be something as simple as a team taking Kyle Okposo and 5th because they really like him and don't want to take a chance because they know he won't be there in the second round. That's not really a big reach, but it could happen. This could also happen with a guy like Tlusty, Frolik, Sanguinetti, Bernier or Helenius. Some teams trade down in these circumstances, others reach a bit because they don't want to take a chance.

 

[Fozz]

I'm not really. The only certainty, if there is such a thing in an entry draft, is that Erik Johnson will go No. 1 to St. Louis, No. 2 to Pittsburgh, or some team that really wants a stud defenceman will trade up to get him. After that, I think any of the top five skater prospects: Kessel, Backstrom, Toews, Staal, Mueller could go in any order. It's a question of what teams like and what they project from them in the future.

If I 've learned one thing following this board and reading other sources is that there is a wide range of opinions on these guys. If there is such a wide range of opinion among amateur observers and professional scouting services, there is bound to be similar variance among professional teams.

This doesn't even take into account surprises such as somebody going for a goalie early, or reaching for a guy. This happens. A reach could be something as simple as a team really liking Kyle Okposo 5th because they really like him and don't want to take a chance because they know he won't be there in the second round. That's not really a big reach, but it could happen. This could also happen with a guy like Tlusty, Frolik, Sanguinetti, Bernier or Helenius. Some teams trade down in these circumstances, others reach a bit because they don't want to take a chance.

Well said. Blake Wheeler is a perfect example of this.

 

[Chief]

If you read it closely (and actually talk to Kyle about it, which I have), he's essentially saying that if there were any doubts before about Okposo being a top-10, they are now gone with the performance in the USHL playoffs. I can tell you that in a personal chat I had with Kyle back in October, he was talking to me about Okposo being a top-10 pick. So, thanks for the input, but for those of us who have been reading Red Line all year, it's pretty obvious that they've been high on him from the beginning.

In any case, this isn't worth splitting hairs with, especially since you yourself put out a draft/prospect publication (didn't you used to subscribe to Red Line?) so I don't think it's a stretch to say that you probably have a bit of an agenda here to throw out a remark that detracts from Woodlief's credibility on the subject.

And I'll leave it at that.

I wasn't looking to open up a can worms, just sharing my opinion on something and looking for some more info. I appreciate your posts which shed some light on the topic. Obviously, there are a lot of impassioned posts on HF and I think people get too worked up about some statements. I did used to subscribe to the RLR and, when I did, I found it to be entertaining and informative and I'm sure it hasn't changed much since then. However, I don't necessarily think of them as "competition". Their products are different than the one we provide and I think in many ways they serve a different audience - and when they don't, I think there's plenty of room for everyone. It's like reading The Hockey News and reading your local paper's hockey coverage - they don't have to be mutually exclusive. And I'll say one more thing, which I have said many times, if someone wants to get the best overall sense of players eligible for a draft, they should probably subscribe to all of the services because then you'd get different viewpoints. Of course, that might be too expensive but I've always felt that the more info you have, the better off you'll be.

 

[Chief]

Chief, I have seen Tlusty on every list but yours. Any reason why?

The list on our site was prepared in late March and isn't indicative of where Tlusty will probably wind up in our final rankings. I've personally got him in my Top 10 but that opinion isn't necessarily shared by all of our scouts. If you'd like to discuss further, feel free to email or PM me.