cutchemist42
Registered User
http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/
http://regressing.deadspin.com/kirk...source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
Wonder if there's anyone thinking of taking this tech and mindset and applying it to the NHL?
http://regressing.deadspin.com/kirk...source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow
This morning on Grantland, Kirk Goldsberry introduced the stat Expected Possession Value Added (EPVA), which he developed with some colleagues as part of a Sloan Conference paper. EPVA still needs some work, but it may represent an enormous development in NBA analysis. Here's why.
There's a whole breed of advanced metrics* dedicated to calculating the impact of individual plays on game outcomes. For MLB we use Run Expectancy (RE24) and for the NFL we use Expected Points Added (EPA), both of which serve as the basis for the extremely useful stat Win Probability Added (WPA). However, baseball and football are structured as discrete events—a single pitch leads to a single swing, a single snap leads to a single pass—while basketball is a continuous action sport. This greatly complicates this sort of analysis: If a team has a possession with a post up, a kick out, a swing pass, and a corner three, how do you assign credit to all the players involved?
Kirk Goldsberry and his Harvard colleagues seem to have made major progress on this problem—for offense, at least—with a model based on the new data from the SportVU player-tracking cameras. EPVA measures the expected points value (EPV) over the course of a possession, based on the position of the ball, the offensive players, and the defensive players, and then assigns shifts in this expected value to the actions of individual players.
Wonder if there's anyone thinking of taking this tech and mindset and applying it to the NHL?