NBA close to understanding every move on the court through stats, NHL next?

cutchemist42

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Apr 7, 2011
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http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/

http://regressing.deadspin.com/kirk...source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

This morning on Grantland, Kirk Goldsberry introduced the stat Expected Possession Value Added (EPVA), which he developed with some colleagues as part of a Sloan Conference paper. EPVA still needs some work, but it may represent an enormous development in NBA analysis. Here's why.

There's a whole breed of advanced metrics* dedicated to calculating the impact of individual plays on game outcomes. For MLB we use Run Expectancy (RE24) and for the NFL we use Expected Points Added (EPA), both of which serve as the basis for the extremely useful stat Win Probability Added (WPA). However, baseball and football are structured as discrete events—a single pitch leads to a single swing, a single snap leads to a single pass—while basketball is a continuous action sport. This greatly complicates this sort of analysis: If a team has a possession with a post up, a kick out, a swing pass, and a corner three, how do you assign credit to all the players involved?

Kirk Goldsberry and his Harvard colleagues seem to have made major progress on this problem—for offense, at least—with a model based on the new data from the SportVU player-tracking cameras. EPVA measures the expected points value (EPV) over the course of a possession, based on the position of the ball, the offensive players, and the defensive players, and then assigns shifts in this expected value to the actions of individual players.

Wonder if there's anyone thinking of taking this tech and mindset and applying it to the NHL?
 

Ryp37

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Nov 6, 2011
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Probably not far off, I enjoy these advance stats that have been getting popular around here but some people seem to value it more than actually watching a player play for an extended period of time, the eye test>numbers every time
 

DL44

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Probably.
Obviously the NHL is even more complicated and dynamic than the NBA.
half court offenses are a lot less dynamic than hockey plays with the most equal comparison being faceoff or PP sets.

If they are thinking about NHL applications of this technology, they'll be running into a lot more difficulties than they are presently with the NBA.


Who knows... maybe the process can be developed further...
 

alcanalz

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Nov 3, 2009
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Probably not far off, I enjoy these advance stats that have been getting popular around here but some people seem to value it more than actually watching a player play for an extended period of time, the eye test>numbers every time

Which is why watching the games will always, always be a better judge than advanced stats.

Hockey's not baseball. There's way too much going on and it's too fluid for baseball-like stats.
 

LetangInTheSO

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Oct 17, 2008
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Hockey is so far away from being "nailed" from a statistical standpoint it's not even funny.
 

TOML

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Hockey is faster and more complicated than any of the other big sports, so it will take more time for the technology and methods to analyze it correctly to be developed. It's going to happen though and it's already well underway.
 

wgknestrick

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Aug 14, 2012
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Probably not far off, I enjoy these advance stats that have been getting popular around here but some people seem to value it more than actually watching a player play for an extended period of time, the eye test>numbers every time

Too bad 90% of eyes don't know what they are looking at, and the human brain is hardly an unbiased and perfect data storage medium.

The "eye test" is basically measuring with uncalibrated, hand made rulers. The game is a science that we are learning more and more about as the years go on. These things are only tools.
 

Man Bear Pig

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Aug 10, 2008
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Probably not far off, I enjoy these advance stats that have been getting popular around here but some people seem to value it more than actually watching a player play for an extended period of time, the eye test>numbers every time

The eye test is a lazy way for people to make an argument most of the time. You use your eyes to watch the game, you use stats to back up an argument and really understand who is impacting the game and how. Something as simple as offensive/defensive zone starts has such a huge impact but when you're watching the game it's not something you'll pay a lot of attention to.
 

Clown Baby*

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Which is why watching the games will always, always be a better judge than advanced stats.

Hockey's not baseball. There's way too much going on and it's too fluid for baseball-like stats.
If the eye test were an accurate metric, scouts would have a better success rate in the first-round of a draft than 25%. Good NHL players wouldn't go undrafted. Waiver claims wouldn't turn out to be First All-Star Team nominees. You get the picture.
 

Caeldan

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Jun 21, 2008
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If the eye test were an accurate metric, scouts would have a better success rate in the first-round of a draft than 25%. Good NHL players wouldn't go undrafted. Waiver claims wouldn't turn out to be First All-Star Team nominees. You get the picture.

You can't have eyes everywhere. Nor are all eyes standardized.
So I don't think that's a legitimate argument that watching someone play is less likely to be an accurate measurement than watching stat sheets.

I think there are still improvements for hockey to be made, but I don't know how exactly you can quantify everything required.
 

Bear of Bad News

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Probably not far off, I enjoy these advance stats that have been getting popular around here but some people seem to value it more than actually watching a player play for an extended period of time, the eye test>numbers every time

Some follow-up questions:

Let's first assume that you're qualified to judge hockey accurately (that's a *very* large hurdle, but I don't know you, so won't claim that it's insurmountable for you). How do you propose to watch all of the players on one team often enough to compare them to the league as a whole (noting that you have to watch them just as often, and without a biased viewpoint, to do so?). How can you say that "Ryan Callahan is an above-average passer", if you don't watch a large enough percentage of the league to know what "average" entails?

How do you keep track of this information, correctly aligned in your brain, without introducing new biases and notions? I'd recommend reading Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking Fast and Slow. The emotional side of our brain generally jumps to gut instincts, which the rational side of our brain tries to justify after the fact.

How do you avoid letting narrative bias impact what you're viewing? how do you avoid the fact that "highlight moments" (which are chosen by other people, who have their own biases and notions) will have a preponderance of weight in your memory, since they're replayed so often? How do you account for the fact that two viewers will see the same exact play differently, simply because their own biases and notions are compounded by the biases and notions of those broadcasting the events?

Are there problems with using statistics to measure hockey? Absolutely. However, there are also problems with "watching the game".

One or the other is never a quality substitute for doing both together.
 

Bear of Bad News

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Hockey's not baseball. There's way too much going on and it's too fluid for baseball-like stats.

People used to feel the same way about advanced stats in baseball.

The fact that something hasn't been done *yet* does not mean that it's not possible.

Also, advances are progress even if they aren't immediately "perfect".
 
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If the eye test were an accurate metric, scouts would have a better success rate in the first-round of a draft than 25%. Good NHL players wouldn't go undrafted. Waiver claims wouldn't turn out to be First All-Star Team nominees. You get the picture.

Amateur scouting misses have very little to do with the eye test and it's failures. No eye test, or set of statistics, is going to tell you fully how a 17 or 18 year old will develop. That's why drafting isn't an exact science, because development isn't.


As far as eye test vs. stats, obviously the eye test is flawed, especially with so many different views, but there's no doubt, in hockey anyway, it is a better way to judge a player or a game. That isn't to say there will never be a good stat for such judgement in the NHL, but it says just how little Corsi and Fenwick actually tell you about a game. In all honesty, they probably don't say anything more about a game than you would have seen yourself.
 

jmart21

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According to most posters here on HF; advanced stats hold so much merit that soon we won't even have to actually play a game. It'll be done on computers!
 

Bear of Bad News

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According to most posters here on HF; advanced stats hold so much merit that soon we won't even have to actually play a game. It'll be done on computers!

Please define "most posters here on HF".
 

hatterson

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Apr 12, 2010
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There's two distinct things here. First, is the underlying technology SportVU. Second, is the analysis of it. There are hurdles with adopting both in the NHL.

First on the technology:

SportVU uses specialized cameras to automatically track the position of all 10 players on the court, as well as the ball. I assume it also tracks who has possession of the ball. In hockey the players aren't that much different to track (12 instead of 10, but that's a trivial increase) and they occupy about the same percentage of the playing surface, however hockey players have something that basketball players don't. Large extensions on their body in the way of a stick.

Stick position clearly affects how plays unfold on the ice, not only on offense, but especially on defense. Even if you don't touch the puck, a stick in a passing lane can prevent a player from even attempting a pass through the slot. Although that blends into the analysis area, it's clear that it's vital to track stick positioning, at least at a basic level, to understand defensive impacts.

Another challenge is in tracking the puck. A basketball is a ~29.5 inch sphere. A puck is a 1 inch thick, 3 inch diameter cylinder. Clearly that makes it much harder to track. As we all know from watching the war room try to figure out if a puck crossed the goal line, it can sometimes be really hard to tell where a puck is exactly. Granted, we may not need to know *exactly* where a puck is and might be able to settle for "It's somewhere in this foot or so" although that does introduce more unknowns.

Second regarding the analysis:

Assuming we can actually solve the issues above (I see no reason why it can't eventually be done), we have to analyze the data. In the NFL and MLB, there are defined plays. One team is on offense, one team is on defense. A play has a very defined start and a very defined end. In the NBA, although it's more flowing, there's still a clear differentiation between the majority of "plays" and for a given play (possession if you will) one team is on offense and one team is on defense. In addition, for any given play all players remain the same. The NHL is a different animal. Although you have stretches in the game where one team is clearly offense and the other is defense (power plays or other times of zone cycling), a majority of the game is the back and forth neutral zone play and teams can switch from offense to defense in a split second.

Although the NBA also has these switches with rebounds and turnovers, they're a lot more infrequent. You can still basically define a "play" as a clear possession of the ball and your number of play "types" are much smaller. Fast break, transition, half court offense/defense. 99% of a Basketball game can be classified as one of those 3 play types. In the NHL you could try the same method and call each play a clear possession of the puck, but you have much larger stretches of questionable possession during scrums along the boards, or bouncing pucks. You also have a much larger variety of play types. I'd say on offense you'd generally have defensive zone possession and breakout, neutral zone play, offensive zone entry and offensive zone possession. On defense you have forechecking, neutral zone play, zone entries, defensive zone play and zone exists (when just clearing the puck).

For the 3 play types in the NBA they basically line up with one another. If one team is in half court offense, one is in half court defense. If one is in fast break offense, the other is in half court defense. Hockey has a much more fluid matchup. Is forechecking a defensive play or an offensive play? Does chipping the puck in and going to get it count as forechecking or offensive zone entry? If one team is in defensive zone exit/breakout offensive formation (lets say defenseman behind the net) the other team might be in forechecking mode, or might already be in neutral zone defense. If you turn the puck over in the offensive zone, trying to prevent a zone exit by the other team is just as much an offensive play as a defensive play.

Mix into all this the fact that you have players switch out at "random" (Yes, I'm fully aware it's not random) and it changes if a play may be considered a success or failure. After a long shift, simply getting to center ice and dumping the puck in for a change would be generally considered a successful result. However, to dump it in and lose possession at the beginning of the shift would be generally a failed play.

That's not even to mention that hockey is the only one of the Big 4 where the players involved in the play is truly variable. NFL is a static 11 on 11. NBA is 5 on 5. MLB is 9 on 1 (1 on 1 and then a defensive response by 9 players, many of whom aren't involved in the play at all) with the minor addition of baserunners. In the NHL you have the "basic" 5 on 5 as well as 6 on 5, 6 on 4, 6 on 3, 5 on 4, 5 on 3, 4 on 4, 4 on 3 and 3 on 3. Obviously some are very rare (6 on 3, and 3 on 3 probably only have a handful of minutes through the entire league in a give season) but you have non-trivial amounts of time spent at other strengths, namely 5 on 4 and 4 on 4.

Again, none of this means the NHL *can't* use stuff like this. It just means that it's harder to do. We use corsi as a proxy for possession purely because we don't actually know who had the puck and for how long. We don't really know, on a macro/quantifiable level, if certain teams or players have strong possession numbers but poor corsi numbers because they cycle forever before taking a show. This type of data would change that.


Semi-related, but MLB's new tech to help measure fielding efficiency looks amazing.

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/6479266/v31405521/heywards-catch-through-bams-new-tracking-technology

I'd be interested to see how much of that is automatic and how much involved manual data manipulation.
 

Master_Of_Districts

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Amateur scouting misses have very little to do with the eye test and it's failures. No eye test, or set of statistics, is going to tell you fully how a 17 or 18 year old will develop. That's why drafting isn't an exact science, because development isn't.


As far as eye test vs. stats, obviously the eye test is flawed, especially with so many different views, but there's no doubt, in hockey anyway, it is a better way to judge a player or a game.

There's plenty of doubt.

That isn't to say there will never be a good stat for such judgement in the NHL, but it says just how little Corsi and Fenwick actually tell you about a game. In all honesty, they probably don't say anything more about a game than you would have seen yourself.

No reasonable analysis is limited to just one game.

Corsi and Fenwick certainly have plenty of big picture utility, over and above what even focused observation can offer.

And part of that, of course, is tied to the fact that no one is capable of watching all 1230 games per season, much less committing everything that happened to memory.
 

hatterson

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There's plenty of doubt.



No reasonable analysis is limited to just one game.

Corsi and Fenwick certainly have plenty of big picture utility, over and above what even focused observation can offer.

And part of that, of course, is tied to the fact that no one is capable of watching all 1230 games per season, much less committing everything that happened to memory.

Not to mention that a single watch of a game allows you to miss a *ton* about how a player is playing. What a player does when away from the puck is just as important (or even moreso) than what they do with the puck.

There's roughly 148-150,000 team minutes of hockey played across those 1230 games each year (1230 games * 60 minutes * 2 teams in the game = 147,600. Then add a bit for OT). Based on penalty data, roughly 82% of the game is currently played at even strength, and 9% each on the PP and PK. Even if we exclude goalies (please don't yell at me Chalupa) that's still about 91% of the game that each team plays with 5 skaters and 9% with 4. Lets drop that to 87% with 5, 10% with 4 and 3% with 3 to account for OT being 4 on 4, other 4 on 4 situations, 5 on 3s and 4 on 3s.

That would mean there's roughly (148,000 * .87 * 5) + (148,000 * .1 * 4) + (148,000 * .03 * 3) = 643,800 + 59,200 + 13,320 = 716,320 man minutes played per year. Call it 700,000 for easy rounding. That's 11,666 hours, or 486 days. Clearly impossible to do since by the time you complete one season the next will have already started.

But lets say that in a given watch you can accurately track 4 players at one time, mentally record what they're doing without bias, and recall that information. That's still over 121 straight days of hockey.
 
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There's plenty of doubt.



No reasonable analysis is limited to just one game.

Corsi and Fenwick certainly have plenty of big picture utility, over and above what even focused observation can offer.

And part of that, of course, is tied to the fact that no one is capable of watching all 1230 games per season, much less committing everything that happened to memory.

Watching games doesn't have big picture utility? It doesn't give you exact amounts, but you can tell just as easily if a team is routinely in their own end or in the offensive ends over a large stretch of games, even a full season. On top of that, it adds actual context to the picture, something Corsi and Fenwick are severely lacking. The eye test is far from perfect, but there is zero doubt it's a better way to judge a game. That doesn't make it the best way. The best way is to combine both, to actually watch the game for the context of what actually happened, and check the stats to see if anything was missed. For whatever reason, that's a concept that flies over a lot of heads from both sides.

Not to mention that a single watch of a game allows you to miss a *ton* about how a player is playing. What a player does when away from the puck is just as important (or even moreso) than what they do with the puck.

There's roughly 148-150,000 team minutes of hockey played across those 1230 games each year (1230 games * 60 minutes * 2 teams in the game = 147,600. Then add a bit for OT). Based on penalty data, roughly 82% of the game is currently played at even strength, and 9% each on the PP and PK. Even if we exclude goalies (please don't yell at me Chalupa) that's still about 91% of the game that each team plays with 5 skaters and 9% with 4. Lets drop that to 87% with 5, 10% with 4 and 3% with 3 to account for OT being 4 on 4, other 4 on 4 situations, 5 on 3s and 4 on 3s.

That would mean there's roughly (148,000 * .87 * 5) + (148,000 * .1 * 4) + (148,000 * .03 * 3) = 643,800 + 59,200 + 13,320 = 716,320 man minutes played per year. Call it 700,000 for easy rounding. That's 11,666 hours, or 486 days. Clearly impossible to do since by the time you complete one season the next will have already started.

But lets say that in a given watch you can accurately track 4 players at one time, mentally record what they're doing without bias, and recall that information. That's still over 121 straight days of hockey.

A large part of that problem is the stats we have tell very little about how a player actually played. Again, they add no context, and because it's a team game, a team statistic like corsi only tells you how a certain unit did, not how a player performed on it, and still adds little context about what actually happened. Again, there's obvious issues with the eye test, so there's a lot of flaws when it comes to fans scouting, but with regards to an individual player, the advanced stats we have right now don't say a whole lot. The top 15 in 5v5 CF% are either on the Bruins, Blackhawks, Kings or Sharks, and Jake Muzzin is #2 in the league. For every flaw the eye test has, when it comes to individual players, Corsi and Fenwick have many more.

All those numbers don't affect teams at all, either, as they would never have just one guy try and do all that. They would watch a particular player over a stretch of time, so really the only issue there would be bias, and maybe sample size.
 

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