Nail Yakupov - How did the scouts get it wrong too?

[Cloned]

At this point I think we can safely say that Yakupov was clearly not worthy of being a #1 overall pick. He's rapidly approaching total bust status - that is to say he may not even have the career of a Daigle or a Falloon or a Doug Wickenheiser (RIP). You can see the things he is TRYING to do on the ice, but he lacks the execution necessary to do them.

The results are even more striking when you compare him to even an average/below average #1 overall pick like RNH. RNH, for all the flack he gets, generally gets the puck moving in the right direction and has above average puck control skills. Yakupov? Not close.

Is it the Oilers messing up his development? The results of Taylor Hall, another 1st overall pick, should prove that a true #1 talent can overcome poor development - even IF that is the reason.

You could argue that it was simply another case of Stu ******* up another pick, but then you go back and look at all the draft reports:

http://www2.tsn.ca/story/?id=387177

Sarnia Sting winger Nail Yakupov is the clear choice as No. 1 at this point, getting the vote of 9 of 10 NHL team scouts surveyed by TSN.

"It's Yakupov and everyone else," one scout told TSN. "We always talk about where there's a drop-off in talent in the first round. Well, this year's it after No. 1."

Yakupov, like Ovechkin, is a dynamic, game-breaking goal-scoring winger who isn't afraid to get physical or get his nose dirty going to the hard areas to put the puck in the net.

http://forums.mmaweekly.com/showthr...-Yakupov-as-1-prospect-for-the-2012-NHL-Draft

It should come as no surprise that right wing Nail Yakupov of the Ontario Hockey League's Sarnia Sting has been tabbed the top North American skater eligible for 2012 NHL Draft by NHL Central Scouting.

Yakupov, 18, was the top prospect on Central Scouting's preliminary list of the top 25 skaters from the OHL in November and was regarded as the No. 1 North American skater on January's mid-term report.

"His first step and ability to control bouncing pucks, knock them down and make a play are the best of any of the guys in the draft," said Central Scouting's Chris Edwards. "He really gets up to top speed very quickly and his hands are outstanding. Like Pavel Bure, Yakupov is dangerous every shift. He may not have been dominant on every shift like Bure was, but he created something every shift … you have to be aware where he is on the ice all the time."

http://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...-a-whole-lot-but-they-all-rank-nail-yakupov-1

Among all the various rankings, one thing has remained constant in recent months: Nail Yakupov stands at the head of the class. It’s unanimous across all eight of the cited rankings: Central Scouting has him #1 in North America, and the rest all place him at #1 period. The only murmur of dissent is from the TSN list, where McKenzie reports that “just” 8 of his 10 scouts were in agreement on Yakupov as top dog.

This consensus fairly screams at the team holding the #1 pick, currently the Edmonton Oilers, that the dynamic Sarnia Sting winger is The One. As was the case with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins a year ago, it’s virtually unanimous. How his career unfolds going forward will provide not just a judgement of the team making the pick, but of the whole draft information machine that all arrived at a similar conclusion about the valedictorian of the Class of 2012.

The bolded above being a perfect segue into the topic of this thread.

How did everyone get it so very, very wrong? Especially in today's era of very thorough scouting?

Click to read more...

 

[duul]

To be fair there are not many standouts from that draft class. Rielly and Lindholm look great. Forsberg showed flashes of brilliance last year.

Yakupov got away with being a speedy, tenacious player with a wicked shot in the OHL. The physicality of the NHL and the tighter checking has left him without many strengths. He hasn't been able to figure it out yet, and I doubt he ever will. I think he will find success as a pure shooter. He was clicking with McDavid and I think that is his calling. His shot is world class and he can keep up with McDavid too. I think they will play together for a long time, with a winger like Kassian or a Marchand type. Someone who is outstanding at retrieving pucks and making simple plays/getting to the net.

 

[Mcnofool6110]

Nobody survives this.

(that whole class has been very underwhelming)

 

[Cloned]

To be fair there are not many standouts from that draft class. Rielly and Lindholm look great. Forsberg showed flashes of brilliance last year.

Yakupov got away with being a speedy, tenacious player with a wicked shot in the OHL. The physicality of the NHL and the tighter checking has left him without many strengths. He hasn't been able to figure it out yet, and I doubt he ever will. I think he will find success as a pure shooter. He was clicking with McDavid and I think that is his calling. His shot is world class and he can keep up with McDavid too. I think they will play together for a long time, with a winger like Kassian or a Marchand type. Someone who is outstanding at retrieving pucks and making simple plays/getting to the net.

I'd probably have to disagree with the bolded.

World class shooters generally:

a) are in a good shooting position finding open ice
b) have great hand-eye and one-timing ability
c) have quick/deceptive releases
d) have good shot placement and/or heavy velocity shots

Honestly Yakupov doesn't have a single one of the above characteristics.

Most of his one-timer goals are actually fluky because he flubs on them and creates a changeup shot that the goalie wasn't expecting.

 

[VainGretzky]

Nobody survives this.

(that whole class has been very underwhelming)

Lol @ that look was someone pointing a water pistol at him

 

[Fishy McScales]

I think Yak is a player who got to the NHL on raw talent, good instincts and a desire to be the best player on the ice.

Then obviously you can't get away with a lot of the stuff you can do in Junior, but at least it looked like that same player arrived to play with the Oilers in the lockout season.

Then Dallas Eakins happened and we all know there's so much wrong with that on so many levels that it's hard to say were the suck begins and ends, but essentially Eakins seems like a coach who bullies his players and Yak got the worst of it.

He constantly got punished and never rewarded. He was asked to become a different player from that guy with good instincts and a desire to be the best player on the ice.

Now he probably thinks he needs to do this or that in order to be effective, but he can't really figure out what it is or how to do it. His instincts and high energy are severely compromised. He still has all the tools (just like RNH, he DOES have above average puck skills).

He may still find it, but even I have my serious doubts despite being a big fan of his since day one.

 

[duul]

I'd probably have to disagree with the bolded.

World class shooters generally:

a) are in a good shooting position finding open ice
b) have great hand-eye and one-timing ability
c) have quick/deceptive releases
d) have good shot placement and/or heavy velocity shots

Honestly Yakupov doesn't have a single one of the above characteristics.

Most of his one-timer goals are actually fluky because he flubs on them and creates a changeup shot that the goalie wasn't expecting.

I think he has a quick/deceptive release. Did you see that snapshot from just inside the blueline a couple games back? Who was that against? He wired it past the goalie and off the crossbar.

He seems nervous or something. He's so fidgety, like a waterbug. Skipping around all crazy. I want the coaching staff to teach him how to find open ice. Maybe get him watching compilations of Stamkos and Ovechkin to show him how to find the open ice. We all know McDavid is going to find him if he gets open.

There's no denying he has a wicked shot. It gets off his stick fast. He struggles to think the game and process it at the NHL level. The staff should do their best to eliminate the thinking aspect as much as possible. We should have a player like Pouliot or Kassian playing left wing strictly to retrieve pucks and then pass those pucks to Connor McDavid. Then Yakupov should begin looking for open ice and getting into scoring areas. Then Connor will give him the puck. Then Yakupov will score.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

He was top scorer in his rookie season, no?

Seems like a good bet to be a perennial 20g scorer too.

Hes not a franchise player but he's no Daigle either. The scouting was fine and justified to hype him considering what he did in Sarnia.

It seems like at least 50% of the time later picks will develop into better players than the 1st overall. That shouldn't even be surprising considering there are 700 other players working to get better and find a role in any give draft class. It's actually surprising that scouts are as accurate as they are.

 

[Fishy McScales]

I'd probably have to disagree with the bolded.

World class shooters generally:

a) are in a good shooting position finding open ice
b) have great hand-eye and one-timing ability
c) have quick/deceptive releases
d) have good shot placement and/or heavy velocity shots

Honestly Yakupov doesn't have a single one of the above characteristics.

Most of his one-timer goals are actually fluky because he flubs on them and creates a changeup shot that the goalie wasn't expecting.

I think he does b) and c) fairly well, but a) and d) not so much.

 

[Cloned]

He was top scorer in his rookie season, no?

Seems like a good bet to be a perennial 20g scorer too.

Hes not a franchise player but he's no Daigle either. The scouting was fine and justified to hype him considering what he did in Sarnia.

It seems like at least 50% of the time later picks will develop into better players than the 1st overall. That shouldn't even be surprising considering there are 700 other players working to get better and find a role in any give draft class. It's actually surprising that scouts are as accurate as they are.

At this point if Yakupov turns into a Daigle type player (40-50 points in his prime), the Oilers will be very lucky. Odds are he'll bounce around a few teams like Pat Falloon did before bowing out of the NHL completely - and even Falloon had a few decent seasons. Unless he completely changes his game like Shaun Van Allen did.

I'm not really comparing him to later picks in his draft year. I'm asking how everyone seemed to say he would be a great game-breaking forward, only to have him be a major disappointment in this regard. Scouts - in this case most (if not all) the collective scouting services - don't generally misread the #1 pick so badly.

 

[thadd]

They didn't get it wrong.
He's a great athlete with great offensive upside and he's a great guy.

Eakins happened.
Same with Schultz.
Schultz still has dumb habits he learned from Eakins.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

At this point if Yakupov turns into a Daigle type player (40-50 points in his prime), the Oilers will be very lucky. Odds are he'll bounce around a few teams like Pat Falloon did before bowing out of the NHL completely - and even Falloon had a few decent seasons. Unless he completely changes his game like Shaun Van Allen did.

I'm not really comparing him to later picks in his draft year. I'm asking how everyone seemed to say he would be a great game-breaking forward, only to have him be a major disappointment in this regard. Scouts - in this case most (if not all) the collective scouting services - don't generally misread the #1 pick so badly.

Well fine.

What was the right pick? Forsberg? Yakupov scored 50 goals and broke stammers scoring record.

Personally I don't think we've seen yakupov play in a functional system with a good centre yet. Not to make too many excuses. It's clear he is not the player from Sarnia.

I wouldn't really go so far as to map out the next 3 seasons as failures for him though, that's jumping the gun a bit.

 

[duul]

At this point if Yakupov turns into a Daigle type player (40-50 points in his prime), the Oilers will be very lucky. Odds are he'll bounce around a few teams like Pat Falloon did before bowing out of the NHL completely - and even Falloon had a few decent seasons. Unless he completely changes his game like Shaun Van Allen did.

I'm not really comparing him to later picks in his draft year. I'm asking how everyone seemed to say he would be a great game-breaking forward, only to have him be a major disappointment in this regard. Scouts - in this case most (if not all) the collective scouting services - don't generally misread the #1 pick so badly.

In most years there is a consensus #1. It just so happens that in three of our #1 overall picks, we ended up in a situation where there was a big debate over who the better player was. This usually means that there is no real gamebreaking, top tier player available in that draft. RNH and Landeskog were the #1 and #2 options and neither has done anything to show themselves as a star in the NHL. Same with Yakupov, and the same was thought about Hall until last year really when Seguin and Hall both started lighting up the league...Seguin moreso than Hall.

I would give Yakupov's entire draft class another 2-3 years. I feel he can still turn it around. I think it's a confidence thing. Eakins might have ruined this player. He was looking great playing with McDavid and I feel that will return.

He is a #1 overall pick. He is being played on our 3rd and 4th lines. Guys like him need minutes to gain confidence. Put Hall on the 3rd line for a season and see how his game falls off the face of the earth. Like I said, I think when McDavid comes back they will play together and he will get another chance to prove himself.

 

[Cloned]

Well fine.

What was the right pick? Forsberg? Yakupov scored 50 goals and broke stammers scoring record.

Personally I don't think we've seen yakupov play in a functional system with a good centre yet. Not to make too many excuses. It's clear he is not the player from Sarnia.

I wouldn't really go so far as to map out the next 3 seasons as failures for him though, that's jumping the gun a bit.

I'm not arguing about which other player in that class would have been the "right" pick. I'm asking why and how 99% of the scouts got it so very wrong on Yakupov, if not with their rankings then with their projections of him being an elite offensive force.

At this point it would be nothing short of a miracle for Yakupov to turn his career around. I hope he does it with us, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Cloned]

In most years there is a consensus #1. It just so happens that in three of our #1 overall picks, we ended up in a situation where there was a big debate over who the better player was. This usually means that there is no real gamebreaking, top tier player available in that draft. RNH and Landeskog were the #1 and #2 options and neither has done anything to show themselves as a star in the NHL. Same with Yakupov, and the same was thought about Hall until last year really when Seguin and Hall both started lighting up the league...Seguin moreso than Hall.

I would give Yakupov's entire draft class another 2-3 years. I feel he can still turn it around. I think it's a confidence thing. Eakins might have ruined this player. He was looking great playing with McDavid and I feel that will return.

He is a #1 overall pick. He is being played on our 3rd and 4th lines. Guys like him need minutes to gain confidence. Put Hall on the 3rd line for a season and see how his game falls off the face of the earth. Like I said, I think when McDavid comes back they will play together and he will get another chance to prove himself.

Scouts got those right though, for the most part. They were right when there was the debate over Taylor vs. Tyler, both players are great top picks. They were right with RNH vs. Landeskog, each player would bring a different style of play and both would be impact, but probably not superstar-level players.

They misread Yakupov entirely though. It's actually quite shocking how badly they misread his game. To give some perspective, the last time the scouts really misread someone at the #1 position that badly was 1999 with Patrik Stefan, and even that year there was considerable controversy over who should go #1 because the scouts at least recognized there were significant question marks at the top of the draft. With 2012, they almost all projected Yakupov as a consensus #1 with elite gamebreaking ability.

 

[Fishy McScales]

In most years there is a consensus #1. It just so happens that in three of our #1 overall picks, we ended up in a situation where there was a big debate over who the better player was. This usually means that there is no real gamebreaking, top tier player available in that draft. RNH and Landeskog were the #1 and #2 options and neither has done anything to show themselves as a star in the NHL. Same with Yakupov, and the same was thought about Hall until last year really when Seguin and Hall both started lighting up the league...Seguin moreso than Hall.

I would give Yakupov's entire draft class another 2-3 years. I feel he can still turn it around. I think it's a confidence thing. Eakins might have ruined this player. He was looking great playing with McDavid and I feel that will return.

He is a #1 overall pick. He is being played on our 3rd and 4th lines. Guys like him need minutes to gain confidence. Put Hall on the 3rd line for a season and see how his game falls off the face of the earth. Like I said, I think when McDavid comes back they will play together and he will get another chance to prove himself.

I think this is very relevant too. All our talented players have been given every chance to succeed except Yak.

So I don't necessarily think the scouts were wrong about him; I think he is the worst case of the Oilers completely mishandling their assets.

 

[McIce Whole]

Yak got screwed by our development...mainly Eakins. It's definitely on him too, I'm a big supporter of his but he has his faults and needs to iron them out soon. However, you could see that raw potential and goal scorer we thought he would become in his rookie season. Eakins happened and he just hasn't looked the same. I think once Mcdavid comes back, Yak will get going again. He needs to play like how he did in his first game back from injury consistently. One of the best games I've seen him play in a really long time. If he brings that consistently, he's got that number 2 RW spot locked up long term.

 

[Jumptheshark]

oilers mishandled him

 

[VainGretzky]

oilers mishandled him

I think they handled Yakuberg bad as well

 

[SupremeTeam16]

It was a weak draft class and Nail dominated with sheer will and physical ability.

My belief is that Nail needed a strong "x's and o's" kinda coach who had a strong understanding of the game and developed fundamentals. Instead he got Kreuger, who while a great motivator wasn't a student of the game. Kreuger did well to build his confidence and he had a pretty decent rookie year. Then Eakins came along and not only didn't improve his fundamental understanding of the game but also destroyed his confidence.

Personally I believe that with strong coaching, confidence building, and a shift in his style of play Nail can still be a very good NHL'er. When I watch him play it seems to me that he thinks of himself as a skill player when really he doesn't have the hands or the vision to be successful as that type of player. What he does have is strong skating ability, a willingness to be physical and a good shot. At the beginning of the year he was actually doing very well in his own zone and the neutral zone, his positioning was pretty good and he was effective when he kept it simple and was winning puck battles. He did however have some catastrophic breakdowns but thats to be expected from a young guy who hasn't been taught properly. It's when he tries to do too much or tries to carry the puck too much that he gets into trouble. If he can keep his game simple be a guy who forechecks hard, is a puck hound/puck retriever and a pest, a guy who gets the puck gets it to the playmakers and then gets himself into a shooting position he can be very successful. It's just a matter of hammering that into his head.

 

[VainGretzky]

Even if he does not start to improve I will always like the player he is so hard not to like.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

Eakins coupled with overestimated hockey IQ.

His NHL game is one of those classic time and space issues. He lacks the ability to give himself time at the NHL level and suffers as a result.

 

[McQuixote]

It's a combination of a weak year and poor development. But also unrealistic expectations about where he should be right now based on those previous two factors.

One certainly can't look at Nail's boxcars and see them as being substantially off the pace of guys like Galchenyuk or Huberdeau. Either the scouts got them wrong too, or it's just a weak year and the push to get these guys in the NHL ASAP from management collides with a refusal to give them primo development time and linemates and live with the mistakes by coaches.

 

[Burnt Biscuits]

Well it was a weaker draft class and the Oilers actually mentioned that pre-draft clearly indicating that he wouldn't be as impactful as Hall or RNH, although while true I'm not sure we should of been so transparent saying he wouldn't be that great relative to more recent 1st overalls.

That year also had the most buzz of us trading our 1st overall pick in the 4 years that we've had the pick, a lot of talk of us trading down to pick up Reinhart+ (which also wouldn't of been a good idea). As has been clearly indicated by Bob McKenzie our scouts had Ryan Murray as 1st overall and it was Katz who forced the Yak pick, though given Murray's injury history that doesn't feel like much of a mistake. The biggest reason Yak hasn't turned out as well as other 1st overall picks despite having a lot of talent is hockey smarts, the language barrier also didn't help matters as he was pretty far from being fully fluent coming out of the draft and I think it hurt our coaches ability to get him to adjust and have him understand what they wanted out of him.

 

[MilfredMilfstrom]

Oilers should trade Yakupov for Pulock.