nexttothemoon
and again...
My take on the 1st sixth of the season... yes in this shortened season we are already 17% through the regular season... time flies when you have an angry lockout and they have to have a fast and furious make-up schedule. (sounds like many relationships)
Oilers positives so far this season:
PP is #5 in the league.
Pk is #5 in the league.
Everyone talks about the hot shot power play but quietly and steadily the PK units have been getting the job done as well.
Dubnyk has been VERY GOOD. Here's a stat to consider:
Take away that craptacular 1st period Dubnky had vs SJ and his save percentage in all his other games combined is 94.5%
Dubnyk is leading the entire NHL in minutes played and shots against right now so he's definitely getting a solid look to see if he's starter material. I think he's doing very well overall and has been the difference already in a few games. Hard to argue that he wasn't the entire reason they stole a point in SJ and he's looked solid in most games he's played..
Personally I think Dubnyk may be the type of goalie that thrives on minutes and plenty of game action and gets better the busier he is. He's also showing he's resilient and can come back and put a bad game behind him... all requirements for starter material and he's showing that so far.
And now the negatives...
As good as the special teams have been, even strength has been horrible. They are 28th in the NHL in 5on5 goals differential. They simply can't compete so far with most teams when 5 on 5.
Which brings us to the next area... the Oil are 21st in shots for per game and 28th in shots against. The differential is 6 shots per game. You can't give up that many extra shots and expect it not to hurt you eventually. Over 48 games that would be ~290 shots and even with opponents scoring at say a very low 7% conversion rate... that's giving away 20+ goals just based on the shots differential. The Oilers simply aren't good enough to make that up and that's the difference between them being a playoff team or once again on the outside looking in.
The team is 24th in faceoffs... another area which they continue to be below average (and this accounts for at least some of their terrible shots differential as well).
The giveaway/takeaway stats kept by the NHL are always a bit suspect... but here as well the Oilers have 73 giveaways vs 47 takeaways. That's an average differential of over 3 per game, and again is contributing to the shots differential we have seen so far.
The Oilers are 24th in hits. A decent indicator of the softness almost everyone acknowledges on the roster.
They are #3 in blocked shots which means they have good shot blockers... but it also means their opponents are heavily pounding away in the Oilers end and generating chances. If the Oilers blockers slip in their level of effectiveness... that's sure to result in more goals against as well.
An interesting stat is that the team has allowed 9 1st period goals, 8 in the 2nd and just 3 in the 3rd... so far they are a team that can shut down the opposition after shaky starts... a good attribute but not if they keep giving up early leads game after game after game.
There's only so many times they can go to the well and ask the PP units to get them back in the game and the goalie to keep them within a goal or 2 so they have a chance to claw back.
So basically they have been riding a hot goalie (minus that one atrocious period) and their excellent special teams... and that's what has essentially given them 9 pts through their 1st 8 games, putting them in 7th in the West currently.
They'll be very lucky to stay there if they continue to be outshot, keep turning the puck over every game and keep losing faceoffs consistently as they have been. All it takes is a slumping PP, PK or the goalie cooling off and it all falls down like a house of cards.
I'm still optimistic that they'll be a playoff team but I also see a team that can easily fall into a rut and be out of it by the halfway mark. On the other hand I've seen promising signs of resilience so once again we are seeing a Jekyll and Hyde type team... much like the fanbase. Maybe we all deserve each other.
Oilers positives so far this season:
PP is #5 in the league.
Pk is #5 in the league.
Everyone talks about the hot shot power play but quietly and steadily the PK units have been getting the job done as well.
Dubnyk has been VERY GOOD. Here's a stat to consider:
Take away that craptacular 1st period Dubnky had vs SJ and his save percentage in all his other games combined is 94.5%
Dubnyk is leading the entire NHL in minutes played and shots against right now so he's definitely getting a solid look to see if he's starter material. I think he's doing very well overall and has been the difference already in a few games. Hard to argue that he wasn't the entire reason they stole a point in SJ and he's looked solid in most games he's played..
Personally I think Dubnyk may be the type of goalie that thrives on minutes and plenty of game action and gets better the busier he is. He's also showing he's resilient and can come back and put a bad game behind him... all requirements for starter material and he's showing that so far.
And now the negatives...
As good as the special teams have been, even strength has been horrible. They are 28th in the NHL in 5on5 goals differential. They simply can't compete so far with most teams when 5 on 5.
Which brings us to the next area... the Oil are 21st in shots for per game and 28th in shots against. The differential is 6 shots per game. You can't give up that many extra shots and expect it not to hurt you eventually. Over 48 games that would be ~290 shots and even with opponents scoring at say a very low 7% conversion rate... that's giving away 20+ goals just based on the shots differential. The Oilers simply aren't good enough to make that up and that's the difference between them being a playoff team or once again on the outside looking in.
The team is 24th in faceoffs... another area which they continue to be below average (and this accounts for at least some of their terrible shots differential as well).
The giveaway/takeaway stats kept by the NHL are always a bit suspect... but here as well the Oilers have 73 giveaways vs 47 takeaways. That's an average differential of over 3 per game, and again is contributing to the shots differential we have seen so far.
The Oilers are 24th in hits. A decent indicator of the softness almost everyone acknowledges on the roster.
They are #3 in blocked shots which means they have good shot blockers... but it also means their opponents are heavily pounding away in the Oilers end and generating chances. If the Oilers blockers slip in their level of effectiveness... that's sure to result in more goals against as well.
An interesting stat is that the team has allowed 9 1st period goals, 8 in the 2nd and just 3 in the 3rd... so far they are a team that can shut down the opposition after shaky starts... a good attribute but not if they keep giving up early leads game after game after game.
There's only so many times they can go to the well and ask the PP units to get them back in the game and the goalie to keep them within a goal or 2 so they have a chance to claw back.
So basically they have been riding a hot goalie (minus that one atrocious period) and their excellent special teams... and that's what has essentially given them 9 pts through their 1st 8 games, putting them in 7th in the West currently.
They'll be very lucky to stay there if they continue to be outshot, keep turning the puck over every game and keep losing faceoffs consistently as they have been. All it takes is a slumping PP, PK or the goalie cooling off and it all falls down like a house of cards.
I'm still optimistic that they'll be a playoff team but I also see a team that can easily fall into a rut and be out of it by the halfway mark. On the other hand I've seen promising signs of resilience so once again we are seeing a Jekyll and Hyde type team... much like the fanbase. Maybe we all deserve each other.