My 2010-2014 drafts rankings.

[Gamer2006]

Hello hockey fans. My english is very bad, so sorry for this. I'm not working as a scout, but i try to understand hockey better and more in depth. This is my draft predictions and rankings of this and previous few years, since most don't play their best hockey yet. I only rank known prospects for obvious reasons. Russian prospects evaluation are very poor these days and maybe you will be surprised or laugh at me, but only time will tell.

Potential level i will describe in the points per game (ppg) in players best full NHL regular seasons (70+ games, but better all 82 in 2 seasons minimum) and 4 rounds in playoffs. Less games is inaccurate small sample size. One level is a 0,1 ppg. 0,8 for example, means 0,81-0,90 ppg.
I think it's a very serious weakness if D plays bad defensively, in this case i cut his numbers by 0,3 ppg, 0,1 or 0,2 is not enough, so if D have 0,8 ppg and good defense his level will be the same, with bad defense his true level will be 0,5 ppg. Therefore value of good defense is 0,3 ppg. This is also works, if i compare forward and defenseman by adding 0,3 ppg. For example, 0,8 ppg D with good defense (Pronger) + 0,3 ppg = 1,1 ppg two-way forward (Datsyuk). Level of forwards who don't play defense or play it irregularly is cut by 0,1 ppg, because they have far less responsibility compared to D. Since forwards need only desire to become two-way i will not consider defensive play in their rankings. Also players like Green, Letang, Karlsson are halfbacks, they constantly leave their position, get deep in the offensive zone to score more points. It's not right to directly compare them with defenseman, so minus 0,1 ppg, or plus 0,2 compared to forward. Don't know any halfbacks who play good defense and i think this is highly unlikely to happen, so pretty much guaranteed minus 0,4 ppg while in halfback mode.

My grading:

First line/pairing minimum, minimum star level - 0,9 ppg (forwards), 0,6 (defenseman).

Second line/pairing - 0,7-0,8 and 0,4-0,5 respectively.

Third line/pairing - 0,5-0,6 and 0,2-0,3.

Top goalie - many seasons at the top.


Rankings will be divided by groups.

2009.

Dmitri Orlov (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. 80%.

Dmitri Kulikov (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. 50%.

2010.

1) Evgeni Kuznetsov (F) - 1,3-1,4 (90%).

2) Taylor Hall* (F), Tyler Seguin* (F), Vladimir Tarasenko (F) - 1,1 (70%), 1 (90%).

3) Artemi Panarin** (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (80%), 0,8 (90%).

4) Mikael Granlund (F) - 1-1,1 (1%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

5) Ryan Johansen* (F), Jaden Schwartz (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

Maxim Chudinov (D) - 0,6-0,7 (5%), 0,5 (80%), 0,4 (90%), def. 80%.

6) Jeff Skinner* (F), Brock Nelson (F), Emerson Etem (F), Calle Jarnkrok (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (90%).

Cam Fowler (D) - 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (80%), def. 1%.

7) Nino Niederreiter (F), Tyler Toffoli (F), Joey Hishon (F), Jordan Weal (F) - 0,9-1 (1%), 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (80%).

8) Charlie Coyle (F), Nick Bjugstad (F), Brendan Gallagher (F), Ivan Telegin (F), Maxim Karpov** (F) - 0,8 (5%), 0,7 (50%).

Teemu Pulkkinen (F), Kirill Kabanov (F) - 0,9-1,1 (5%), 0,7-0,8 (30%).

Brandon Gormley (D).

9) Mark Stone (F), Jason Zucker (F), Ryan Spooner (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (10%).

Erik Gudbranson (D), Jon Merrill (D), Martin Marincin (D).

10) Alexander Burmistrov (F), Riley Sheahan (F), Beau Bennett (F), Stanislav Galiev (F), Brett Connolly (F), Quinton Howden (F), Maxim Kitsyn (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (5%).

Derek Forbort (D), Jarred Tinordi (D), Mark Pysyk (D), Justin Faulk (D), Radko Gudas (D), Dalton Prout (D).

Jack Campbell (G), Mark Visentin (G), Calvin Pickard (G), Philipp Grubauer (G), Petr Mrazek (G).

2011.

1) Nikita Kucherov (F), Sven Baertschi (F) - 1,1 (70%), 1 (90%).

Adam Larsson (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. 80%.

2) Jonathan Huberdeau (F), Ryan Strome (F), Maxim Shalunov (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (80%), 0,8 (90%).

Steffen Soberg (G).

3) Johnny Gaudreau (F) - 1-1,1 (5%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%). Alexander Khokhlachev (F) - 1-1,1 (1%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

4) Gabriel Landeskog* (F), Brandon Saad (F), Sean Couturier (F), Joel Armia (F), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins* (F), Markus Granlund (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (90%).

Alexei Marchenko (D) - 0,6-0,7 (5%), 0,5 (50%), 0,4 (90%), def. 80%.

John Gibson (G).

5) Mika Zibanejad (F), Mark Scheifele (F), Vincent Trocheck (F), Ondrej Palat* (F) - 0,9-1 (1%), 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (80%).

6) Vladislav Namestnikov (F), Tomas Jurco (F), Boone Jenner (F), Matt Nieto (F), Matt Puempel (F), Shane Prince (F), Andrei Sigarev** (F) - 0,8 (5%), 0,7 (50%).

Jonas Brodin (D), Oscar Klefbom (D), Nathan Beaulieu (D), Xavier Ouellet (D), Adam Clendening (D), Martin Gernat (D), Mikhail Naumenkov** (D), Zakhar Arzamastsev** (D).

7) Ty Rattie (F), Nicklas Jensen (F), Rickard Rakell (F), Tobias Rieder (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (10%).

Dougie Hamilton (D or HB), Duncan Siemens (D), Ryan Murphy (D or HB), Stuart Percy (D).

8) J.T. Miller (F), Stefan Noesen (F), Tyler Biggs (F), Dmitri Jaskin (F), Nick Cousins (F), Andrew Shaw (F), Yaroslav Kosov (F), Brett Ritchie (F), Rocco Grimaldi (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (5%).

Joe Morrow (D), Jamie Oleksiak (D), David Musil (D), Scott Mayfield (D), Scott Harrington (D), Ryan Sproul (D or HB), Andrei Pedan (D), Magnus Nygren (D), Nikita Nesterov (D).

Magnus Hellberg (G), Adam Wilcox (G).

2012.

1) Nail Yakupov (F) - 1,5-1,6 (90%).

2) Andrei Vasilevski (G) - corresponds to 1-1,1 ppg forward (90%).

3) Mikhail Grigorenko (F) - 1,5-1,6 (1%), 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (90%).

4) Nikita Gusev (F) - 1-1,1 (5%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%). Alex Galchenyuk (F) - 1,1 (1%), 1 (5%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

5) Tomas Hertl (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

6) Filip Forsberg (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (90%).

Ryan Murray (D), Matt Finn (D), Damon Severson (D), Adam Pelech (D).

7) Nikolai Prokhorkin (F) - 0,9-1 (1%), 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (80%).

Cody Ceci (D) - 0,5 (70%), def. 50%.

8) Teuvo Teravainen (F), Sebastian Collberg (F), Charles Hudon (F), Brendan Leipsic (F) - 0,8 (5%), 0,7 (50%).

Griffin Reinhart (D), Hampus Lindholm (D), Slater Koekkoek (D).

Morgan Rielly*** (HB) - 0,9 (80%), def. 0,1%.

9) Nicolas Kerdiles (F), Tim Bozon (F), - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (10%).

Jacob Trouba (D or HB), Mathew Dumba (D or HB).

10) Radek Faksa (F), Scott Laughton (F), Brendan Gaunce (F), Zemgus Girgensons (F), Tom Wilson (F), Henrik Samuelsson (F), Stefan Matteau (F), Tanner Pearson (F), Martin Frk (F), Anton Zlobin (F), Brady Vail (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (5%).

Derrick Pouliot (D or HB), Olli Maatta (D or HB), Brady Skjei (D), Ville Pokka (D), Dalton Thrower (D), Dmitri Sinitsyn (D).

Malcolm Subban (G), Oscar Dansk (G), Anthony Stolarz (G), Frederik Andersen (G), Linus Ullmark (G), Marek Mazanec (G), Vasili Demchenko** (G).

2013.

1) Valeri Nichushkin (F) - 1,4 (90%).

2) Grigori Dikushin** (F) - 1,2-1,4 (50%), 1,1 (90%).

3) Jonathan Drouin (F) - 1-1,1 (50%), 0,9 (70%), 0,8 (90%).

4) Nathan MacKinnon**** (F) - 1-1,1 (5%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (90%). Alexander Barkov (F) - 1-1,1 (1%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

Brenden Kichton (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. 50%.

5) Elias Lindholm (F), Sean Monahan (F), Max Domi (F), Hunter Shinkaruk (F), Nic Petan (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

6) Anthony Mantha (F), Pavel Buchnevich (F), Anatoli Golyshev** (F), Alexei Zakarlyukin** (F), Sergei Tolchinsky** (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (90%).

Seth Jones (D), Rasmus Ristolainen (D) - 0,7-0,8 (5%), 0,6 (50%), 0,5 (80%), 0,4 (90%), def. 50%.

Tristan Jarry (G).

7) Kerby Rychel (F), Anthony Duclair (F) - 0,9-1 (1%), 0,8 (10%), 0,7 (80%).

Nikita Zadorov (D).

8) Bo Horvat (F), Curtis Lazar (F), Andre Burakovsky (F), J.T. Compher (F), Valentin Zykov (F), Nicholas Baptiste (F), Sven Andrighetto (F), Anton Slepyshev (F), Hudson Fasching (F), Martin Reway (F) - 0,8 (5%), 0,7 (50%).

Darnell Nurse (D), Samuel Morin (D), Rushan Rafikov (D), Mikhail Tikhonov** (D).

9) Alexander Wennberg (F), Marko Dano (F), Morgan Klimchuk (F), Adam Erne (F), Nick Sorensen (F), Oliver Bjorkstrand (F), Sergei Kuptsov** (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (10%).

Dmitri Yudin** (D).

10) Jacob de la Rose (F), Artturi Lehkonen (F), Taylor Cammarata (F), Bogdan Yakimov (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (5%).

Josh Morrissey (D or HB), Ryan Pulock (D), Mirco Muller (D), Shea Theodore (D or HB), Chris Bigras (D), Robert Hagg (D), Steve Santini (D), Madison Bowey (D or HB), Kirill Vorobiyov** (D), Vladislav Lysenko** (D).

Zach Fucale (G), Eric Comrie (G), Spencer Martin (G), Kristers Gudlevskis (G).

2014.

1) Artur Lauta** (F), William Nylander (F), Jakub Vrana (F), Nikolai Goldobin (F), Ivan Nikolishin** (F), Maxim Lazarev** (F) - 1,1 (5%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (80%), 0,8 (90%).

Aaron Ekblad (D) - 0,8 (80%), def. 50%.

2) Leon Draisaitl (F), Robby Fabbri (F), Josh Ho-Sang***** (F) - 1-1,1 (1%), 0,9 (50%), 0,8 (70%), 0,7 (90%).

3) Sam Reinhart (F), Sam Bennett (F), Michael Dal Colle (F), Kevin Fiala (F), Sonny Milano (F), Adrian Kempe (F), Brayden Point (F) - 0,9-1 (5%), 0,8 (50%), 0,7 (90%).

Nikolai Ehlers (F) - 0,7-0,8 (50%), 0,9-1,1 (5%).

Thatcher Demko (G).

4) Jake Virtanen (F), Brendan Perlini (F), Kasperi Kapanen (F), David Pastrnak (F), Jared McCann (F), Nikita Scherbak (F), Ivan Barbashev (F) - 0,8 (5%), 0,7 (50%).

5) Nick Ritchie (F), Alex Tuch (F), Vladislav Kamenev (F), Eric Cornel (F), Arkhip Nekolenko** (F), Artur Boltanov** (F), Vladimir Tkachyov** (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (10%).

Travis Sanheim (D or HB).

6) Dylan Larkin (F), Jayce Hawryluk (F), Nick Magyar (F), Lucas Wallmark (F), Clark Bishop (F), Daniel Audette (F), Pavel Kraskovsky (F), Matthew Mistele (F), Spencer Watson (F) - 0,8 (1%), 0,7 (5%).

Haydn Fleury (D or HB), Julius Honka (D or HB), Anthony DeAngelo (D or HB), Roland McKeown (D or HB), Brandon Montour (D or HB), Nikita Tryamkin (D), Rinat Valiev (D), Jack Glover (D), Brycen Martin (D or HB).

Mason McDonald (G), Ilya Sorokin (G), Ville Husso (G), Igor Shestyorkin (G), Ivan Nalimov (G).

* - Players who already played at certain level.

** - Undrafted players.

*** - Based on my observations halfbacks have a hard time in the playoffs, so they would be lower in the rankings.

**** - I think he has good chances to be similar to Franzen or Krejci and play better in playoffs.

***** - I didn't consider possible character issues.

Click to read more...

 

[Paper]

There's a 90% chance that Kuznetsov and Nichushkin become 115 point players?

While Hall, Seguin and Tarasenko have the same chance of being 82 point players? Which happens to be the same ranking you gave Baertschi?

 

[Sojourn]

Yeah, at a glance those rankings seem really suspect.

From an Anaheim perspective, you have Emerson Etem as being equal to Cam Fowler. That's completely ridiculous, and not at all an accurate portrayal of what either player has done so far. I don't think any objective Anaheim fan sees any chance of Etem equaling Fowler.

You have Kuznetsov and Panarin as two of the highest 2010 picks, and Nichuskin and Dikushin above players like Drouin and MacKinnon in 2013. Kucherov 1st in 2011, not to mention so high in Vasilevski and Grigorenko in 2012. And how are Severson, Ceci, and Pelech superior to Hampus Lindholm or Jacob Trouba?

Really, your entire list looks very biased in favor of Russian players.

 

[Ozzy77]

I don't under stand any of it

 

[Paper]

Also apparently Johansen has a 70% chance of being a 65 point player and only a 5% chance of being a 0.9 point-per game player (74 points).

He scored 63 last year, on pace for 75 this year.

Even the biggest Swiss or Flames homer wouldn't try and say that Baertschi is the top pick from the 2011 draft. Hell, his parents wouldn't make such an insane argument.

Also, apparently there are 10 players better than Sam Reinhart, who was taken 2nd overall, 3 of whom are undrafted...

 

[Sojourn]

Also apparently Johansen has a 70% chance of being a 65 point player and only a 5% chance of being a 0.9 point-per game player (74 points).

He scored 63 last year, on pace for 75 this year.

And Granlund is higher than him and Fowler.

The entire list seems unnecessarily complicated, and weighted heavily in favor of Russian and European players. That, by itself, is no problem. Someone who sees more of those players will favor them, but it seems to be at the expense of players who are already in the NHL and are proving their worth. I just don't think you can discount players who are already establishing themselves in the NHL, and you absolutely can't ignore what they are already doing. Johansen is a perfect example of that vs. someone like Kuznetsov. The former is quite obviously the superior player right now, but his potential is being significantly underrated(and what he's accomplshed so far is, arguably, being outright ignored) while Kuznetsov is going to be challenging Crosby for the Art Ross?

 

[radicalcenter]

There's 50% chance that Grigori Dikushin becomes a 98 to 114 points player??

Yakupov has 90% of becoming a 123 to 131 point player??

You think Mackinnon has good chances of becoming similar to Franzen??

 

[Paper]

[W]hile Kuznetsov is going to be challenging Crosby for the Art Ross?

Except Crosby would probably only receive a 1,1 (5%), 1 (70%), 0,9 (80%), 0,8 (90%) ranking and be behind Vitali Anikeyenko (1.3-1.4 (90%)) for the 2005 draft.

 

[Gamer2006]

Thanks for all responses. Please, read the description, it isn't to big or complicated. My rankings is purely about potential and likelihood of reaching it. I understand you can think that i'm biased, but my goal is to make best draft rankings and i hate bias. It would take several years to fully appreciate it.

 

[TheOllieC]

I don't think you know who Justin Faulk is.

 

[Teeder9]

Thanks for all responses. Please, read the description, it isn't to big or complicated. My rankings is purely about potential and likelihood of reaching it. I understand you can think that i'm biased, but my goal is to make best draft rankings and i hate bias. It would take several years to fully appreciate it.

No bias? You have Grigori Dikushin, who by the way, has never shown much of anything to suggest he'll even have a career in hockey worth noting, above Nathan MacKinnon. Not sure what your definition of bias is, but mine says you've exceeded all expectation

 

[Spade]

Wait, so if you're not working as a scout and only trying to understand hockey in more depth, what's the point of this thread?

You learn a lot more from observation than you do by reinforcement of your own opinions.

A guy like Dikushin, for example, hasn't produced at any level at any rate similar to any of the players you've listed behind him. Yet somehow a guy who, at 20 years old, has 9 points in 25 games in the Russian junior leagues (U20, which logically should mean he's in the best possible position to produce) has a 90% chance of scoring in the NHL at the same rate as John Tavares, Ryan Getzlaf and Evgeni Malkin?

As much as you claim it's not complicated and you're trying to make the best possible rankings, there is literally no way to think of what you typed as an educated opinion. It's absolutely needlessly complicated in how you structured your rankings and your "best" rankings, quite simply, make children look smarter.

I'd recommend watching other games other than Russian junior leagues via the internet. That's the bare minimum you'd have to do in order to understand hockey in more depth. As of right now you're clearly either letting your bias cloud your judgment or quite simply have never watched other hockey leagues.

A good start would be to look at the success of the Russian national team and consider why they're not immediately the most dominant team in the world when they should have all the best players in the world.

 

[NarcoPolo]

What is this. Not only is this ridiculous to understand, you're "rankings" make zero sense.

Edit: woops didn't know you were Russian and English was your 2nd language, either way seems super bias to me

 

[Flaming Satan]

What the hell???? Baertschi???? And some of these picks are insane. There must be three Rushians that I haven't even heard of at the top of the draft.

 

[7even]

You have Matt Finn, who's currently in the ECHL, ranked higher than Morgan Rielly.

I don't know what to say about that.

 

[David Dennison]

What the hell???? Baertschi???? And some of these picks are insane. There must be three Rushians that I haven't even heard of at the top of the draft.

You know the Kremlin has accounts on HF boards.

 

[JackSlater]

Thanks for all responses. Please, read the description, it isn't to big or complicated. My rankings is purely about potential and likelihood of reaching it. I understand you can think that i'm biased, but my goal is to make best draft rankings and i hate bias. It would take several years to fully appreciate it.

Alright, without sounding off on how terrible the rankings are, please explain how Kuznetsov can be projected as a superior player to Seguin. Hearing the rationale for even just one example would be enough.

 

[Montecristo]

Look out for Russia's olympic team 2018. Scary good

 

[Flaming Satan]

You know the Kremlin has accounts on HF boards.

Oh ****. Oops

 

[cramdizzl]

Sorry but this list is whack. Undrafted players ranked above 1st overalls? Baertschi and Larsson at the head of their class??

Although, it does make me happy to see that Grigorenko has a 1% chance of becoming a 160 pt scorer. I thought it was like .4% chance at best.

 

[Skip2myBordyloo]

Oh Boy Where do you come up with these numbers?

Ivan Nikolishin is going to have a hard time making the NHL let alone be one of the top producers of the draft class. Scouting isn't an exact science but I'm sure if one NHL scouting staff saw 2nd line upside in Nikolishon he would have been drafted.

90 percent chance of becoming a second line player?

More like 90 percent chance of never making the NHL.

This is definitely bias towards Russians as you think every year that a Russian has the most upside of each draft class either shared or alone.

 

[MR4]

I for one appreciate your efforts in at least bringing a couple of Russians to our attention that you think can be good players in the NHL, and with your probable lack of North American junior games watched I completely understand why you'd feel players you've had more exposure to would do better.

 

[Gamer2006]

Wait, so if you're not working as a scout and only trying to understand hockey in more depth, what's the point of this thread?

Trying to understand hockey in more depth doesn't mean that i'm just started, i watch a lot of hockey and have come a long way before deciding to make rankings.

A guy like Dikushin, for example, hasn't produced at any level at any rate similar to any of the players you've listed behind him. Yet somehow a guy who, at 20 years old, has 9 points in 25 games in the Russian junior leagues (U20, which logically should mean he's in the best possible position to produce) has a 90% chance of scoring in the NHL at the same rate as John Tavares, Ryan Getzlaf and Evgeni Malkin?

Here is few examples:

19 years old Ovechkin in 04-05 season scored 26 P in 37 GP (Russian League). Then 106 in 81 next season (NHL). He was year older and there was more 5 on 4 given in two seasons after lockout, but its a lot easier to score in RSL or KHL, few players from NHL doesn't change that. It just shows that Ovechkin calibre talent didn't receive appropriate time on ice. Somebody think he wasn't good enough for it?

16 years old Yakupov in 09-10 MHL season scored 6 in 14. Then 101 in 65 next season (OHL) and virtually all russian players don't play their best hockey in CHL even in second season, because of huge differences in game. They far better get used to NHL than CHL. If Yakupov didn't go to OHL there is a good chance he doesn't receive opportunity to show himself even to this point. In NHL this is also happen a lot. Hall, Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle were given opportunity, but not Yakupov, except at the end of his first season. And problem now is not only time on ice, it's mental state that Yakupov is in.

Or you think 20-22 years old Tarasenko wouldn't score much more in first two seasons if given opportunity? What about Stamkos in first season? And if he was treated like Yakupov in second and third seasons?

What Kucherov is doing now with time he gets is a rare thing. He is lucky to play on that line with Johnson and Palat, it is helping him a lot and there is very huge difference if he played same time on ice with third liners.

Dikushin always was a leader of 95 age group in Russia. He made a mistake by coming to USHL, there he wasn't given opportunity. And then pretty much everyone forgets about him.

Imagine if majority of best prospects in Canada wouldn't receive appropriate time on ice, would play 3, 4 line minutes in CHL. 16, 17, even 18 and 19 years old seasons. Top 6 minutes is given to players who is just older. This is that happen in MHL.

A lot of people don't understand how valuable time on ice is.

 

[RickyR]

I love this list. It's sheer awesomeness.

Sort of like a bizarro world where Russia took over the world and locked up all the north american players in the Gulag so they couldn't practice.

 

[Gamer2006]

What the hell???? Baertschi???? And some of these picks are insane. There must be three Rushians that I haven't even heard of at the top of the draft.

Again, just let Baertschi play around 18 minutes a game and he would help Flames a lot, even if he would not play defence. If you want defensive play from all your forwards explain to them right way why they should play it.