Proposal: MTL & NJ

[dgibb10]

My analysis comes from actually watching the players play in games. When it comes to stats, point production is the most important stat.

EV stats are what you use to make excuses for a player who didn't produce. That's basically all you have been quoting.

You can't admit that Newhook was a much better player than Mercer this season. You can't admit that Lane Hutson was a better player Casey in college. You can't admit that Timo Meier had a disappointing season (despite good reasons for his hampered production).

You just make excuses by cherry picking useless stats that don't tell the story.

Except I have admitted Mercer has struggled this year. Overall his results still massively trump Newhooks tho.

Again, if you'd read I pointed out Meier's early year struggles battling through injury consistently.

Lane Hutson had 55 points in 46 games before turning pro this year, compared to Casey's 56 points in 47 games, and yet you're shocked when they are compared. 2 undersized dman who have dominated college from the same round of the same draft class.

Hutson has more upside and is more of an offensive weapon, Casey is a better skater and better defensively

Point production is important, but stacking up points as a passenger on a power play isn't particularly valuable. BECAUSE POWER PLAY MINUTES ARE LIMITED.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Except I have admitted Mercer has struggled this year. Overall his results still massively trump Newhooks tho.

This is why no one can take you seriously. Admit it - Newhook blew Mercer out the water this year.

Can you admit that? Say it with me... It will make you feel better!

Put Mercer on the Habs and he produces far less. He's on a team that struggles to score and would be on the 2nd line without a legit 2C (as Dach was injured). Mercer would produce less. Holtz would produce nada.

This is what was remarkable about Newhook's season. He drove a line and produced at a 2nd line production rate playing with scrubs.

 

[dgibb10]

My analysis comes from actually watching the players play in games. When it comes to stats, point production is the most important stat. You on the other hand demonstrated that you don't watch any Habs hockey. Your opinion of Dach is proof. Your opinion of Slaf is proof.

EV stats are what you use to make excuses for a player who didn't produce or diminish a Habs player who did produce offensively. That's basically all you have been quoting.

You can't admit that Newhook was a much better player than Mercer this season. You can't admit that Lane Hutson was a better player Casey in college. You can't admit that Timo Meier had a disappointing season (despite good reasons for his hampered production).

You just make excuses by cherry picking useless stats that don't tell the story.


So Habs players that produced this season didn't get any points EV? Slaf? Newhook? Suzuki? Caufield?

This is just idiotic. Admit it - they had good seasons. They produced.

Just because Habs players like Slaf produced this season doesn't diminish Nemec. Why do you go out of your way to propose false theories just to prop up NJ players? Propping up Mercer to diminish Guhle. Its so immature and insecure!!

If you have read anything I have said as a slight against Kaiden Guhle I don't know what to tell you. He has put up good results in tough minutes. I'd have him 9th in a redraft.

If you have read me saying "Hey slaf isn't a play driver yet and currently takes a lot of penalties but I think he's had an incredible season for a teenager and I expect him to be a 85+ point power forward" as a slight I don't know what to tell you.

I have consistently praised Suzuki as a quality 1C.

I have praised Newhooks 5v5 production, it's actually quite good this year. (but we aren't going to retroactively pretend he was better than he was in colorado).

 

[Junohockeyfan]

If you have read anything I have said as a slight against Kaiden Guhle I don't know what to tell you. He has put up good results in tough minutes. I'd have him 9th in a redraft.

If you have read me saying "Hey slaf isn't a play driver yet and currently takes a lot of penalties but I think he's had an incredible season for a teenager and I expect him to be a 85+ point power forward" as a slight I don't know what to tell you.

I have consistently praised Suzuki as a quality 1C.

I have praised Newhooks 5v5 production, it's actually quite good this year. (but we aren't going to retroactively pretend he was better than he was in colorado).

You were doing well then say stupid shit like the bolded...

Newhook was far better this season than any season he had with the Avs. All round better player than his former Avs self.

 

[Guess]

Kirby Dach had awful results outside of a stretch on Caufield and Suzuki's wing.

If you saw Dach struggle as a C and succeed as a passenger winger and tricked yourself into seeing a 2C, idk what to tell you


Meier has been frankly excellent since getting healthy. I haven't had a complaint about him in months.

Dach was the best Habs player this season in training camp and, preseason before his injury. You're sorely mistaken if you think that, he's primed to explode next season (if he's healthy).

I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually beats out Suzuki for 1C.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Dach was the best Habs player this season in training camp and, preseason before his injury. You're sorely mistaken if you think that, he's primed to explode next season (if he's healthy)

Agree 100%. Dach's season ending injury absolutely sunk the Habs. He was primed for a huge breakout and a freak odd accident derailed him. It was heartbreaking.

 

[dgibb10]

This is why no one can take you seriously. Admit it - Newhook blew Mercer out the water this year.

Can you admit that? Say it with me... It will make you feel better!

Put Mercer on the Habs and he produces far less. He's on a team that struggles to score and would be on the 2nd line without a legit 2C (as Dach was injured). Mercer would produce less. Holtz would produce nada.

This is what was remarkable about Newhook's season. He drove a line and produced at a 2nd line production rate playing with scrubs.

Holtz produced alongside Chris Tierney and Tomas Nosek lmao.

I have consistently pointed out Mercer's struggles this year. I have consistently praised newhooks 5v5 production this year.

But you pretending 1 down year from mercer negates just how good his production was before is delusional.

Here is a complete list of players who had more even strength goals in their age 19 and 20 seasons than dawson mercer (by evolving hockey's age ranges) over the last 15 years.

Might be some pretty good company mercer is in.

McDavid, Kane, Pettersson, Tavares, Stamkos, Matthews, Johnson.

Those are the 19 and 20 year olds who have gotten more primary points than mercer did at even strength.

And again, just to clarify very clearly because reading comprehension is hard. I AM NOT SAYING MERCER IS AS GOOD AS THOSE PLAYERS

You were doing well then say stupid shit like the bolded...

Newhook was far better this season than any season he had with the Avs. All round better player than his former Avs self.

Again you misread. I do apologize as this one was ambiguously worded.

You have consistently retroactively overrated what Newhook was at the time of the trade because of a good season since then

 

[bud12]

Except I have admitted Mercer has struggled this year. Overall his results still massively trump Newhooks tho.

Again, if you'd read I pointed out Meier's early year struggles battling through injury consistently.

Lane Hutson had 55 points in 46 games before turning pro this year, compared to Casey's 56 points in 47 games, and yet you're shocked when they are compared. 2 undersized dman who have dominated college from the same round of the same draft class.

Hutson has more upside and is more of an offensive weapon, Casey is a better skater and better defensively

Point production is important, but stacking up points as a passenger on a power play isn't particularly valuable. BECAUSE POWER PLAY MINUTES ARE LIMITED.

This year, Casey have 45pts in 40 games and Hutson have 49pts in 38 games just to get this straight. And it's funny to see Monahan in your ev stats because we where told that he was only a pp specialist who could not score at 5v5 when the habs wanted to trade him. I guess I was right, ev stats are related to how good your team is.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Holtz produced alongside Chris Tierney and Tomas Nosek lmao.

I have consistently pointed out Mercer's struggles this year. I have consistently praised newhooks 5v5 production this year.

But you pretending 1 down year from mercer negates just how good his production was before is delusional.

Here is a complete list of players who had more even strength goals in their age 19 and 20 seasons than dawson mercer (by evolving hockey's age ranges) over the last 15 years. View attachment 854169
Might be some pretty good company mercer is in.

McDavid, Kane, Pettersson, Tavares, Stamkos, Matthews, Johnson.

Those are the 19 and 20 year olds who have gotten more primary points than mercer did at even strength.

And again, just to clarify very clearly because reading comprehension is hard. I AM NOT SAYING MERCER IS AS GOOD AS THOSE PLAYERS

And yet, he struggles to produce this season. While Newhook blew him out the water. Which is fine to say as its a fact.

Then you go on to intimate that Newhook is no different that what he was on the Avs.... What is it with you? Have you never watched a game and just wait for the stats to post? lol

You have no clue how good Dach was to close the season in 2022-2023. You have no clue who Newhook developed as a play driver this season whilst on C (which is not his strength) and while playing with Gallagher / Armia.

Holtz is irrelevant to me. Habs wouldn't have any interest. We can already fill out the bottom 6 with non-impressive players. lol

 

[dgibb10]

Dach was the best Habs player this season in training camp and, preseason before his injury. You're sorely mistaken if you think that, he's primed to explode next season (if he's healthy).

I wouldn't be surprised if he eventually beats out Suzuki for 1C.

Kirby Dach has been a 45% xGoals player anytime he's been off suzuki's wing.

He has yet to surpass 18 5v5 points (this usually ranks in the 250-280 range for forwards) in any year of his career, despite getting VERY strong linemates such as Kane, Debrincat, Suzuki, and Caufield

And nothing from what I have seen suggests he has been an effective center at any point.

And now coming off a blown out knee, it'll be rough especially if he doesn't get a role back on PP1 or on suzuki's wing again.

Seems incredibly disrespectful to Suzuki to suggest that in my opinion

This year, Casey have 45pts in 40 games and Hutson have 49pts in 38 games

Casey 6 points in 6 games at the WJC and 5 points in exhibition vs SFU (They took BU to a shootout btw)
Hutson 6 points in 7 games at the WJC and 0 points in the exhibition game vs the US development team when he got 2 goals scored against him by his 16 year old brother

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Again you misread. I do apologize as this one was ambiguously worded.

You have consistently retroactively overrated what Newhook was at the time of the trade because of a good season since then

Still ambiguous. What did i retroactively state about Newhook? Do you mean retrospectively?

For the record, i absolutely hated the Newhook trade. Watched him play many games in Colorado and he couldn't produce even when paired with good players. He was a defensive liability at C. When the trade was made, i was disappointed.

Then he proved me wrong. And he did it emphatically by producing 5on5 with crap players.

 

[dgibb10]

Still ambiguous. What did i retroactively state about Newhook? Do you mean retrospectively?

For the record, i absolutely hated the Newhook trade. Watched him play many games in Colorado and he couldn't produce even when paired with good players. He was a defensive liability at C. When the trade was made, i was disappointed.

Then he proved me wrong. And he did it emphatically by producing 5on5 with crap players.

Shocker. You hated the newhook trade because you can't see any player development unless that player plays for the habs, in which case they are CLEARLY right about to break out

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Kirby Dach has been a 45% xGoals player anytime he's been off suzuki's wing.

He has yet to surpass 18 5v5 points (this usually ranks in the 250-280 range for forwards) in any year of his career, despite getting VERY strong linemates such as Kane, Debrincat, Suzuki, and Caufield

And nothing from what I have seen suggests he has been an effective center at any point.

And now coming off a blown out knee, it'll be rough especially if he doesn't get a role back on PP1 or on suzuki's wing again.

Seems incredibly disrespectful to Suzuki to suggest that in my opinion


Casey 6 points in 6 games at the WJC and 5 points in exhibition vs SFU (They took BU to a shootout btw)
Hutson 6 points in 7 games at the WJC and 0 points in the exhibition game vs the US development team when he got 2 goals scored against him by his 16 year old brother

You haven't seen him play though. If you watched him in his last 20+ games last season you couldn't possibly state the bolded. Every Habs fan has come in here and disputed your stat-fueled (lack of) opinion. Dach outplayed Suzuki in the final games of the season and in pre-sesaon.

What does that tell you? Habs fans can't evaluate their own players that they watch 82 games in a season? (or in the case of Dach... less due to injuries).

Could injuries hamper him moving forward? Yes. But this isn't the chronic wrist injury that he had. It was a freak accident. His Dr. stated he expects a full recovery. He even made Dach sign a promise that he wouldn't play this season after the surgery to ensure no further complications. (True story). Jack Hughes injuries could have debilitating impacts as well. Time will tell.

Shocker. You hated the newhook trade because you can't see any player development unless that player plays for the habs, in which case they are CLEARLY right about to break out

No. I hated the player because i didn't see the potential in him after actually watching him play. I was wrong. He proved me wrong.

What's wrong with that? I admitted i was wrong about him. Not because he is a Hab.

I hated losing Danault and still do. He was the perfect 2C and we lost him for nothing.

 

[Xirik]

to argue with Juno you must follow these two rules.

1. All players that aren't part of the Habs can't develop and become better players

2. You can't talk stats about a Habs player unless you watch a LOT of Habs games. He however is allowed to just look at stats for players on other teams and cast judgement.

 

[Baksfamous112]

to argue with Juno you must follow these two rules.

1. All players that aren't part of the Habs can't develop and become better players

2. You can't talk stats about a Habs player unless you watch a LOT of Habs games. He however is allowed to just look at stats for players on other teams and cast judgement.

What are they even fighting for? Is it that Guhle is better than Mercer? Mercer better than Newhook? Who’s the better ES player?

 

[dgibb10]

You haven't seen him play though. If you watched him in his last 20+ games last season you couldn't possibly state the bolded. Every Habs fan has come in here and disputed your stat-fueled (lack of) opinion. Dach outplayed Suzuki in the final games of the season and in pre-sesaon.

What does that tell you? Habs fans can't evaluate their own players that they watch 82 games in a season? (or in the case of Dach... less due to injuries).

Could injuries hamper him moving forward? Yes. But this isn't the chronic wrist injury that he had. It was a freak accident. His Dr. stated he expects a full recovery. He even made Dach sign a promise that he wouldn't play this season after the surgery to ensure no further complications. (True story). Jack Hughes injuries could have debilitating impacts as well. Time will tell.


No. I hated the player because i didn't see the potential in him after actually watching him play. I was wrong. He proved me wrong.

What's wrong with that? I admitted i was wrong about him. Not because he is a Hab.

I hated losing Danault and still do. He was the perfect 2C and we lost him for nothing.

There is not a fanbase I trust less than Montreal's. Eye test's are great when they aren't filled with bias and skewed by fallacies.

Let's see just how many of the most common fallacies we have to fool fanbases in this sample

6 even strength points in 20 games. Meh
a 21% shooting %. Yep there's always the shooting %.
95% on ice save% to hide every defensive mistake. Shocker.
An overall PDO of 105.
HE STILL HAD A SUB 50 xGoals%.
4 minutes a night on the power play. Check (habs fans especially keep falling for this one)

And I checked the time frame, he's still getting caved in when suzuki isn't on the ice.

But hey, his goalies bailed him out so fans got tricked.

 

[dgibb10]

What are they even fighting for? Is it that Guhle is better than Mercer? Mercer better than Newhook? Who’s the better ES player?

At this point I'm trying to desperately fight a losing battle against habs fan bias just in general.

To explain that simply existing on a power play and racking up points isn't particularly valuable.

That context matters, that players can develop outside of Montreal.

That an player analysis consisting of looking at a players point totals in the current year and nothing beyond that isn't good.

 

[Xirik]

What are they even fighting for? Is it that Guhle is better than Mercer? Mercer better than Newhook? Who’s the better ES player?

A "you are biased! no you are biased!" fight sprinkled with various players from both teams.

 

[Baksfamous112]

At this point I'm trying to desperately fight a losing battle against habs fan bias just in general.

To explain that simply existing on a power play and racking up points isn't particularly valuable.

That context matters, that players can develop outside of Montreal.

That an player analysis consisting of looking at a players point totals in the current year and nothing beyond that isn't good.

I’m a Habs fan myself. Here’s some bold statement from my 44 games I watched live this year (counting 2 pre-season and one in Florida):

- Lafreniere is grossly underrated and was most of the time the best player on the ice for his team
- Ziba is washed up and has slowed down considerably. He’s on the decline and it will show on the scoresheet sooner than later
- k’Andre Miller had a pretty bad year compared to last year
- Jack Hughes was never the same after his first injury
- Mercer had a pretty bad year and it was clear he lacked confidence with the puck. He rushed plays way more than last year
- Forsling was by far the best D for Floride
- Ovy is completely washed up. Lazy on the ice, super slow and gave the puck way more often than he used too.
- Chyrchurn was Ottawa most consistent D. Sanderson isn’t has good (yet) as people make it to be.
- Brock Nelson is probably the most underrated C in the east
- Tage most likely played a good chunk of the year with a shoulder injury or something like that
- Pesce is already washed up
- Trading for Drysdale will age well for Philly

A "you are biased! no you are biased!" fight sprinkled with various players from both teams.

Nice! Who’s winning?

 

[Baksfamous112]

There is not a fanbase I trust less than Montreal's. Eye test's are great when they aren't filled with bias and skewed by fallacies.

Let's see just how many of the most common fallacies we have to fool fanbases in this sample

6 even strength points in 20 games. Meh
a 21% shooting %. Yep there's always the shooting %.
95% on ice save% to hide every defensive mistake. Shocker.
An overall PDO of 105.
HE STILL HAD A SUB 50 xGoals%.
4 minutes a night on the power play. Check (habs fans especially keep falling for this one)

And I checked the time frame, he's still getting caved in when suzuki isn't on the ice.
View attachment 854205
But hey, his goalies bailed him out so fans got tricked.

No matter what your numbers says they’re wrong and it’s unfortunate that Dach doesn’t get to prove you wrong until next season but it is what it is. Again, your take on Dach isn’t going to end well. I’ll leave it to that for now as it is pointless to debate until ~ mid season next year

 

[dgibb10]

A "you are biased! no you are biased!" fight sprinkled with various players from both teams.

"I like guhle and think he's worth a top 10 pick" somehow translated to "I hate kaiden guhle and consistently shit on him"
"I like Alex Newhook, he's had a very good year and was well worth his price" somehow translated to "I hate alex newhook and think he's worthless"
"I think Nick suzuki is a quality 1C" somehow translated to "I hate Nick Suzuki"
"I think Juraj Slafkosvky will be an 85+ point power forward, but right now he takes a lot of penalties" somehow translated to "I hate juraj slafkovsky he's a massive bust"
"Lane hutson has had a fantastic college career and is incredibly high upside, but there are concerns about how his defense, skating, and size will hold up in the NHL" somehow translated to "I hate lane hutson and he is a guaranteed bust"

I don't know I don't speak french

I do however think Kirby Dach is a fraud. and that Arber Xhekaj isn't an effective NHL dmen.

 

[dgibb10]

No matter what your numbers says they’re wrong and it’s unfortunate that Dach doesn’t get to prove you wrong until next season but it is what it is. Again, your take on Dach isn’t going to end well. I’ll leave it to that for now as it is pointless to debate until ~ mid season next year

If Kirby Dach goes out there and plays quality 5v5 hockey as a center, good for him.

Again, I have yet to see him do that.

I think he's a valuable guy on the PP. And I think he can be a very good winger.

Consistently at center I've seen him give up a ton more chances than he generates.

And he simply doesn't produce 5v5.

Again, 18 points 5v5 is where you find your 4th line grinders, your defensive dmen.

I don't think a guy hanging around in this range is a top 6 center.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

"I like guhle and think he's worth a top 10 pick" somehow translated to "I hate kaiden guhle and consistently shit on him"
"I like Alex Newhook, he's had a very good year and was well worth his price" somehow translated to "I hate alex newhook and think he's worthless"
"I think Nick suzuki is a quality 1C" somehow translated to "I hate Nick Suzuki"
"I think Juraj Slafkosvky will be an 85+ point power forward, but right now he takes a lot of penalties" somehow translated to "I hate juraj slafkovsky he's a massive bust"
"Lane hutson has had a fantastic college career and is incredibly high upside, but there are concerns about how his defense, skating, and size will hold up in the NHL" somehow translated to "I hate lane hutson and he is a guaranteed bust"

I don't know I don't speak french

I do however think Kirby Dach is a fraud. and that Arber Xhekaj isn't an effective NHL dmen.

And i do think Nemec is vastly overrated by Nj fans (error prone) and Holtz is a dime a dozen bottom 6 forward (and 1st round bust). Guy can’t skate worth a damn. I don’t see NJ getting a good return for Holtz.

Xhekaj and Dach will prove you wrong next season. Your take on Dach is laughable. You haven’t watched him play C.

Meanwhile, Hutson is a fantastic skater. Casey’s D is no better than Hutson’s. Both have similar issues due to lack of size. Skating is hardly a key differentiator. When on Team USA Lane was the go to guy. Fact!

In a redraft Hutson > Casey by a fair margin. Only homer NJ fans would debate this!

Casey needs more junior time!

 

[dgibb10]

And i do think Nemec is vastly overrated and Holtz is a dime a dozen bottom 6 forward (and 1st round bust).

Xhekaj and Dach will prove you wrong next season. Your take on Dach is laughable.

My take that I'd like my "top 6 center" to score at a higher rate 5v5 than Ryan Reaves?

 

[Junohockeyfan]

to argue with Juno you must follow these two rules.

1. All players that aren't part of the Habs can't develop and become better players

2. You can't talk stats about a Habs player unless you watch a LOT of Habs games. He however is allowed to just look at stats for players on other teams and cast judgement.

And point production is meaningless to NJ fans. Only EV points matter, unless its a NJ player who captures PP points. And EV is an individual accomplishment and not impacted by overall team (defense etc).