Proposal: MTL and CGY

[Ledge And Dairy]

I find it funny that Calgary 2025 1st is already a top 10 protected pick (but on the other side of protection) and that there’s no way they would ever overachieve and be a bubble team.

last years, Seattle were a top 3 pick guaranteed and they made the playoff. This year, Philly was a guaranteed top 3 pick and supposed to be the team with the best odds at Celibrini. They ended up being a bubble team.

Nothing is guaranteed in life, especially not a hockey team. New coach, a strong year from Huberdeau and Markstrom/Wolf and a couple of young gunz taking a big step and you could easily see Calgary being in the picture for a playoff spot.

Do you realize how dumb this argument is? Your whole argument is based on 1/32 teams finishing wildly above expectations in a given season. Could Calgary be that team next year? Absolutely but highly unlikely. Does that mean Calgary should bet on them being that team? Absolutely not. Last I checked Philly kept their 2024 1st round pick last summer and actually sold at the deadline this year too.

 

[Scintillating10]

Who's this Ghule guy? What's with you Montreal fans and getting players names wrong over and over again? Guy's on your team, you should know how to spell his name!

As for the trade I would maybe do it if it was just the 9th for Guhle. Then I'd love to see the Flames pick up a couple top 6 guys and keep Markstrom. No rebuild, and no top pick for Montreal next year!

I don't think Montreal interested in giving him up for a pick. Very slim chance they move Guhle at all. But if they did it be for first line scoring forward. Somebody caliber of Zegras. Hughes would pick either Buium or Dickinson to replace Guhle in system.

 

[slybel]

I don't think Montreal interested in giving him up for a pick. Very slim chance they move Guhle at all. But if they did it be for first line scoring forward. Somebody caliber of Zegras. Hughes would pick either Buium or Dickinson to replace Guhle in system.

We are not moving our Goollé !

 

[Baksfamous112]

Um he actually performed best against elite competition
View attachment 858656

Geez I wonder if this has anything to do with his TOI deployment at all?! It’s almost as if he was sheltered and deployed mostly in the OZ which clearly has a huge impact on his GF% share.

Is it possible? Sure.

Is it likely? lol no

Maybe the Flames surprise and have a cinderella year. But it's considerably more likely they finish in the bottom 10, if not the bottom 5. And only the most incompetent franchises run by GM's looking to get fired would plan and make moves based around the longest of longshots.

I get why Montreal fans are hoping another franchise does something dumb and they can rip them off but it is rather hilarious that they seem surprised if not baffled that said fanbases don't actually want to do that.

I don’t think anyone in Montreal is hoping Calgary does that trade. It’s not hard to understand Montreal is exiting their rebuild and would not want to« retool the rebuild » by trading Guhle for picks.

Just because I said Montreal shouldn’t do it doesn’t mean Calgary should. Whatever Calgary does or doesn’t do is irrelevant from Montreal point of view and I can only speak from my side, which is Montreal.

Do you realize how dumb this argument is? Your whole argument is based on 1/32 teams finishing wildly above expectations in a given season. Could Calgary be that team next year? Absolutely but highly unlikely. Does that mean Calgary should bet on them being that team? Absolutely not. Last I checked Philly kept their 2024 1st round pick last summer and actually sold at the deadline this year too.

I don’t see what’s wrong with not wanting to take that risk? I couldn’t care less what Calgary should or shouldn’t bet on regarding their pick next year. I never once said or hinted that they should do that trade.

I can only speak from my team point of view and in this particular case, not only it doesn’t make sense to trade Guhle for picks but in the odd case we would have to do it I wouldn’t want to take that kind of risk and hope for a « maybe they’ll end up in the basement, maybe not » kind of deal

 

[Nico Cauzuki]

Stop the with Guhle proposals i know this is Hockey's future boards but picks are so overrated Kaiden is already our best dman at 22 years old hes going nowhere

 

[Gaud]

Exactly. Guhle certainly plays a very tough role with very little help. But Montreal fans are out here acting like he's dominating these minutes.

With Guhle on the ice Montreal gets dominated. Not Guhle's fault, but it's tough to evaluate.

Always tough to tell how to value a guy with meh/bad results in a very very tough situation, vs a guy dominating a muchh easier situation.

From watching Guhle I'd say he's a quality number 4 at this point.

Sure Guhle is playing 20:51 a night at age 22. Cam fowler was playing 22 minutes a night at age 19. Brodin was playing 24 minutes a night at age 20.


Jonas Brodin recieved norris votes at age 21 btw. He was playing 24 minutes a night at age 20
Fowler was playing 22+ minutes a night the second he entered the league at age 19.

With Nemec on the ice NJD gets 52.6% of expected goals 5v5.
With Guhle on the ice montreal gets 45% of expected goals 5v5.

Top pairing RD and top pairing LD are also different.

I have Nemec around the 25-30 range for RHD.
I have Guhle around the 35-40 range for LHD

for context with an LHD, Luke Hughes played more than Guhle and I don't consider him a top pairing LD yet either

According to what i understand from the bolded above, you put him as a quality #4 but as a 35-40 range LHD. 35-40 still puts him in the top pairing range since some teams will have more than one player in your list. In this context, a quality #4 may also mean a "average 1st pairing" or whatever.

However he plays top pairing minutes and i disagree that he looks dominated at all. Trust me, even if i didnt watch the games, the media machine that is montreal would love to find continued examples of him getting "dominated" or being out of position, etc. In reality, they normally comment that he is always in the right position and is solid defensively and physical. Personally, aside from a few exceptions of a big hit or a goal, i find we dont hear about him much at all, which is usually a good sign for an effective shutdown defenseman.

 

[Flamesfan62]

The chance that the #9 pick will be better than Guhle are slim.

The chance that the #9 pick will be better than Guhle are slim.

No they aren’t.

 

[dgibb10]

Um he actually performed best against elite competition
View attachment 858656

HIMon Nemec.

Guhle is getting absolutely f***ed in terms of Usage tho because AHLer Xhekaj actually has to be sheltered.

I've been using puck IQ a ton, just wish they had xGoals numbers

Geez I wonder if this has anything to do with his TOI deployment at all?! It’s almost as if he was sheltered and deployed mostly in the OZ which clearly has a huge impact on his GF% share.

I don’t think anyone in Montreal is hoping Calgary does that trade. It’s not hard to understand Montreal is exiting their rebuild and would not want to« retool the rebuild » by trading Guhle for picks.

Just because I said Montreal shouldn’t do it doesn’t mean Calgary should. Whatever Calgary does or doesn’t do is irrelevant from Montreal point of view and I can only speak from my side, which is Montreal.


I don’t see what’s wrong with not wanting to take that risk? I couldn’t care less what Calgary should or shouldn’t bet on regarding their pick next year. I never once said or hinted that they should do that trade.

I can only speak from my team point of view and in this particular case, not only it doesn’t make sense to trade Guhle for picks but in the odd case we would have to do it I wouldn’t want to take that kind of risk and hope for a « maybe they’ll end up in the basement, maybe not » kind of deal

Except Nemec has more dzone starts than he does ozone starts.

Nemec was sheltered in NJ. He rarely played against the best players on the other side. It’s much easier to look good against 3rd line but much different when playing against the Matthews, Panarin, Aho, Pastrnak of this world

He had literally normal deployment.

Marino does take the toughest matchups generally tho yes.

 

[dgibb10]

it concerns some of us Habs fans as well. We should be exiting our rebuild, not plunge into another one.

On the surface, his numbers aren’t that great but the poor guy had the responsibility to shut down the top players on the other team night in/night out, which is not exactly ideal for a 21 years old who’s in his second NHL season.

He’s progressed and played as well as you can ask a 21 years old to shut down elite players. I can’t wait to see what he’s going to look like at 25. He’s going to be a very, very good two-way D in this league. Probably somewhere between a Brodin and a Slavin.

EDIT: Now that I think if it, somewhere in between of Slavin and Toews comparison is more likely as I think he has more offense in him than Brodin has/had

Reminder that Jonas Brodin recieved norris votes in his age 21 season and was playing 24 minutes a night (equivalent to last year for Guhle).

If your expectations of Guhle are between Devon Toews and Jaccob Slavvin, prepare to be VERY disappointed.

At some point we stop asking "is Kaiden Guhle playing against hard competition" and start asking "is Kaiden Guhle having any success against said competition". And we reach that point when you start comparing him to the best defensive dmen in the NHL.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

HIMon Nemec.

Guhle is getting absolutely f***ed in terms of Usage tho because AHLer Xhekaj actually has to be sheltered.

I've been using puck IQ a ton, just wish they had xGoals numbers


Except Nemec has more dzone starts than he does ozone starts.


He had literally normal deployment.

Marino does take the toughest matchups generally tho yes.

Nemec had more ozone starts than dzone per moneypuck. He was indeed sheltered and rightfully so!

 

[dgibb10]

According to what i understand from the bolded above, you put him as a quality #4 but as a 35-40 range LHD. 35-40 still puts him in the top pairing range since some teams will have more than one player in your list. In this context, a quality #4 may also mean a "average 1st pairing" or whatever.

However he plays top pairing minutes and i disagree that he looks dominated at all. Trust me, even if i didnt watch the games, the media machine that is montreal would love to find continued examples of him getting "dominated" or being out of position, etc. In reality, they normally comment that he is always in the right position and is solid defensively and physical. Personally, aside from a few exceptions of a big hit or a goal, i find we dont hear about him much at all, which is usually a good sign for an effective shutdown defenseman.

35-40 for LHD puts him in 2nd pairing range.

 

[bud12]

Reminder that Jonas Brodin recieved norris votes in his age 21 season and was playing 24 minutes a night (equivalent to last year for Guhle).

If your expectations of Guhle are between Devon Toews and Jaccob Slavvin, prepare to be VERY disappointed.

At some point we stop asking "is Kaiden Guhle playing against hard competition" and start asking "is Kaiden Guhle having any success against said competition". And we reach that point when you start comparing him to the best defensive dmen in the NHL.

And the year after he played 20min and averaged 22min during is career. Guhle can and is expected to become that kind of player. He already play againt the best each nights and doing good. He will be a main piece for the habs for plenty of years.

 

[dgibb10]

Nemec had more ozone starts than dzone per moneypuck. He was indeed sheltered and rightfully so!

Yawn try again.

 

[dgibb10]

And the year after he played 20min and averaged 22min during is career. Guhle can and is expected to become that kind of player. He already play againt the best each nights and doing good. He will be a main piece for the habs for plenty of years.

He is playing against the best every night sure. But if habs fans want to go out and pretend results like these are comparable, they're lying to themselves.

Playing tougher competition does not inherently make you a better player.

But just in case you wanted to see what actually sheltered minutes look like, let's take a look at one Arber Xhekaj

 

[HabsAddict]

I never knew there was such a thing as "Guhle Obsession"....

 

[Ledge And Dairy]

I never knew there was such a thing as "Ghule Obsession"....

How every Habs fan spell his name wrong is the real shocker. it's one thing if you are messing up Xhekaj but Guhle really isn't that difficult.

Regardless this whole thread should just be locked up. The original trade was illegal due to the conditions on the pick, Calgary wouldn't risk losing 2 potentially top 10 for 1 player and a few 2nds anyways. It's also highly unlikely the Habs would trade Guhle at all as they are trying to be a more competitive team and he will be a core top 4 defenseman for them moving forward. Nemec is entirely irrelevant to both teams and the original statement involving him was not comparing him and Guhle at all, why it ever degraded into a 1 on 1 comparison is beyond me.

 

[HabsAddict]

I never knew there was such an obsession as "shame on you for mispelling a players name".

Good to know....

 

[dgibb10]

How every Habs fan spell his name wrong is the real shocker. it's one thing if you are messing up Xhekaj but Guhle really isn't that difficult.

Regardless this whole thread should just be locked up. The original trade was illegal due to the conditions on the pick, Calgary wouldn't risk losing 2 potentially top 10 for 1 player and a few 2nds anyways. It's also highly unlikely the Habs would trade Guhle at all as they are trying to be a more competitive team and he will be a core top 4 defenseman for them moving forward. Nemec is entirely irrelevant to both teams and the original statement involving him was not comparing him and Guhle at all, why it ever degraded into a 1 on 1 comparison is beyond me.

A montreal fan brought up Nemec as whataboutism.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

A montreal fan brought up Nemec as whataboutism.

And you of derailed the thread with ridiculous and false claims Nemec is a top pairing D. lol


Now back to the Cgy/Mtl thread…

 

[bud12]

He is playing against the best every night sure. But if habs fans want to go out and pretend results like these are comparable, they're lying to themselves.
View attachment 860691View attachment 860693View attachment 860694
View attachment 860692

Playing tougher competition does not inherently make you a better player.

But just in case you wanted to see what actually sheltered minutes look like, let's take a look at one Arber Xhekaj
View attachment 860698

And witch one of this player is only 22years old and play on a shitty team?? Guhle can absolutle become like those players. Now put the Nemec chart so we can see what a top pairing d look like

 

[dgibb10]

And witch one of this player is only 22years old and play on a shitty team?? Guhle can absolutle become like those players. Now put the Nemec chart so we can see what a top pairing d look like

Happy to

 

[Junohockeyfan]

Happy to
View attachment 860728

Nope still not anywhere close to a top paiyD. And still massively sheltered. And still never played anywhere close to top pairing minutes. NJ still sucked on D!

Now back to Cgy//Mtl thread. So you have anything relevant to the thread topic.

 

[bud12]

Happy to
View attachment 860728

and this is a top pair dman?

 

[dgibb10]

and this is a top pair dman?

You are welcome to go ahead and name me 32 RHD you'd take over him.

But for some context, Guhle's overall war %ile was 12th%ile.

Nemec's was in the 80th%ile.

 

[Junohockeyfan]

and this is a top pair dman?

A sheltered 2nd /3rd pair…