Prospect Info: Most Disappointing Prospects in Hurricanes History

[tarheelhockey]

Jeremy Welsh.

He was penciled in as our 3C his rookie year. Not sure how it all fell apart.

 

[DaveG]

For me, Ryan Murphy. I was all-in on that guy being a world beater offensive defenseman. I remember being irrationally happy when he slipped to #12 in 2011. But, to be fair, him busting didn't really set us back that far as aside from J.T. Miller, the middle of the first round in 2011 really wasn't all that great. So it's not like, for example, in 2014 when we chose Fleury and immediately after Nylander and Ehlers go.

Honestly, just going through the draft history right now and looking at the names in the mid-to-late 2000's to the early 2010's and, yeah, it's not hard to figure out why this team sucked so bad for so long. Good lord could the JR/PK regime not draft to save their asses. 2005-2009 in particular is just yikes.

I remember being so ready for us to draft Scheifele in that draft that when the Jets announced that pick I went "wait did the Jets just completely f*** us?" I figured they were taking Couturier who was slipping at the time, that Philly was going to take Hamilton, Minny Brodin, and Boston Murphy that I figured Scheif was a sure bet to land here since I knew Colorado was going D. When Colorado took Seimens over Murphy I was stunned and thrilled. Murphy had been projected to go top 5 most of that year.

And then the Kuhnhackl hit came in his D+1 and he was never the same player again. What was once the most dynamic puck rushing dman prospect I'd ever seen reminiscent of something you'd see from Paul Coffey or Brian Leetch becomes hesitant as a result of a hit magnitudes worse than anything I've ever seen out of Rees, who the OHL hasn't hesitated to throw the book at.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I say Jack Johnson.

1. all the hype and disappointment that has been mentioned.

2. on top of that, a successful signing of Jack Johnson would have put us on another path and potentially avoided other bad picks.

3. or if someone had communicated they were not going to sign with us beforehand, a Price or Kopitar would have been great too.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

After reading the responses, I see a few different categories guys fall into:

1) Guys that we owned rights to but either failed to, or they refused to sign: J. Johnson, F. Andersen, A. Fox
2) Guys that were 1st rounders and straight out busts: Boychuk, Murphy, Paradis, Knyazev, Heerema, Tselios,
3) Guys that were high picks and didn't pan out as well as one would have expected given their draft pedigree: Lindholm (before the trade), Hanifin, Fleury (so far),
4) Guys that were later picks that had more hype than they probably should have: Dalpe, Bowman, and I'm sure a few more.
5) Guys that were promising early on but never reached expectations long term: McBain, Tanabe, (and Vagrant would put Skinner here), Willis?, others?

 

[Brock Anton]

5) Guys that were promising early on but never reached expectations long term: McBain, Tanabe, (and Vagrant would put Skinner here), Willis?, others?

Victor Rask. Even with his well documented skating issues, dude was looking like a legitimate middle six center, then the wheels just fell off.

 

[Svechhammer]

So going by the BBA list above, I would start with bullet point 2 as the most disappointing.

Jack Johnson, I mean it sucked, but at least he got us Tim Gleason in a trade, who locked down our defense for the next 8 years. We knew Fox was unlikely to play here from the moment of the trade, so I'm not sure I would even consider that a disappointment, and I mean Andersen sucks, but it was a 7th round pick, not exactly something you're banking your future on.

Those 1st round misses are killers, though. Boychuk was at least somewhat serviceable here, nothing near what we expected, but he contributed a little. The rest of that list are absolute garbage with the double whammy of not just whiffing on a 1st rounder but being so bad they tanked their value when we shipped them out.

That said, the absolute most painful has to be Heerema. 11th overall in the 1998 draft. Claimed off waivers by the Blues in 2003 meaning we got basically jack shit for him after only 10 games of service with us. Oof, that's a special kind of painful, and a big reason why the team couldn't take that next step after the run to the finals in 2002 and instead fell back.

 

[DaveG]

So going by the BBA list above, I would start with bullet point 2 as the most disappointing.

Jack Johnson, I mean it sucked, but at least he got us Tim Gleason in a trade, who locked down our defense for the next 8 years. We knew Fox was unlikely to play here from the moment of the trade, so I'm not sure I would even consider that a disappointment, and I mean Andersen sucks, but it was a 7th round pick, not exactly something you're banking your future on.

Those 1st round misses are killers, though. Boychuk was at least somewhat serviceable here, nothing near what we expected, but he contributed a little. The rest of that list are absolute garbage with the double whammy of not just whiffing on a 1st rounder but being so bad they tanked their value when we shipped them out.

That said, the absolute most painful has to be Heerema. 11th overall in the 1998 draft. Claimed off waivers by the Blues in 2003 meaning we got basically jack shit for him after only 10 games of service with us. Oof, that's a special kind of painful, and a big reason why the team couldn't take that next step after the run to the finals in 2002 and instead fell back.

Yeah Heerema is a hair above Tselios to me since literally everyone taken around him and the guy right after him became something aside from Fata. But God how different our history would be had we taken Tanguay... or even mr f***ing puck poise himself Martin Skoula

With Tselios the skaters all taken before him after Hossa went off the board were garbage or highly disappointing themselves. Of course, the next two taken were f***ing Hannan and Brendan Morrow.

 

[Unsustainable]

If you could travel back in time, and got to change 1 draft pick, who would it be?

Kopitar over JJ or Karlsson over Boychuk

 

[DaveG]

If you could travel back in time, and got to change 1 draft pick, who would it be?

Kopitar over JJ or Karlsson over Boychuk

Option 2. We at least got something useful out of trading JJ.

 

[bleedgreen]

Victor Rask. Even with his well documented skating issues, dude was looking like a legitimate middle six center, then the wheels just fell off.

Agreed, but that was a pretty damn good pick to get a guy who initially did that well in the second round. More of a player issue than a draft pick one.

 

[Brock Anton]

Karlsson over Boychuk.

Kopitar would've been nice, but we already had a #1C in Staal. Forever JR was looking for that top 4 "puck moving defenseman" and when he failed, settled for Joe Corvo. Draft Karlsson and we don't have to watch Corvo play way too much and likely don't have to waste money/assets on guys like Kaberle.

Another one to be added to that "what if" list would be ROR over Paradis in 2009. He would've been the ideal #2C and having him likely means we don't to make the Jordan Staal trade in 2012 as we'd have Staal/ROR/Sutter down the middle. Of course, it's possible that JR would've traded ROR for Staal, but alas.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If you could travel back in time, and got to change 1 draft pick, who would it be?

Kopitar over JJ or Karlsson over Boychuk

Not even close. Karlsson over Boychuk, and I really like Kopitar.

For a few years (until that injury), some considered Karlsson one of the top 2-3 players in the NHL.

 

[DaveG]

Agreed, but that was a pretty damn good pick to get a guy who initially did that well in the second round. More of a player issue than a draft pick one.

I want to say Rask fell off after a shoulder injury? Or was that before the injury that he was falling off?

 

[cptjeff]

Another one to be added to that "what if" list would be ROR over Paradis in 2009. He would've been the ideal #2C and having him likely means we don't to make the Jordan Staal trade in 2012 as we'd have Staal/ROR/Sutter down the middle. Of course, it's possible that JR would've traded ROR for Staal, but alas.

IIRC, the big debate on this board was Landon Ferraro versus Ryan O'Reilly. Everyone knew we were going for a Center, those two were the top ranked Centers, and we did... that. Paradis is probably the dumbest pick this team ever made, but everyone knew it at the time, so it wasn't a galloping shock when he didn't pan out (but the Leafs gave us a real NHLer for him, which was nice of them. Seriously, why did they do that?). Even if you're just drafting for size, Paradis is only a inch taller than O'Reilly is. Just made no sense.

 

[DaveG]

IIRC, the big debate on this board was Landon Ferraro versus Ryan O'Reilly. Everyone knew we were going for a Center, those two were the top ranked Centers, and we did... that. Paradis is probably the dumbest pick this team ever made, but everyone knew it at the time, so it wasn't a galloping shock when he didn't pan out (but the Leafs gave us a real NHLer for him, which was nice of them. Seriously, why did they do that?). Even if you're just drafting for size, Paradis is only a inch taller than O'Reilly is. Just made no sense.

Yeah there were a few other options that we were considering on here that never panned out (Klingberg, Buddish) but Ferraro vs ROR was a big debate. The question was how much upside ROR had at the time of the draft with him, at least at the time, seeming more like a safe 3rd/4th line center type. Which given that draft kinda sucked, that wouldn't have been bad at all at #28. IIRC the other guys that were on the radar that turned out at least OK were Chiasson and Silferberg who were more skill oriented guys.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

If you could travel back in time, and got to change 1 draft pick, who would it be?

Kopitar over JJ or Karlsson over Boychuk

Tanguay over Heerema. It would have really set the team in another direction through the 2000s.

knowing PK would have played it cheap: I go a lot more recently and say McAvoy over Bean. TD would pony up to keep McAvoy. Its hard to imagine PK ponying up for Karlsson, Kopitar, or other with Staal, Ward, or others on the squad.
Imagining a D of Slavin-Hamilton, Pesce-McAvoy, Fleury-Faulk is AMAZING!!!!!!!

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Tanguay over Heerema. It would have really set the team in another direction through the 2000s.

knowing PK would have played it cheap: I go a lot more recently and say McAvoy over Bean. TD would pony up to keep McAvoy. Its hard to imagine PK ponying up for Karlsson, Kopitar, or other with Staal, Ward, or others on the squad.
Imagining a D of Slavin-Hamilton, Pesce-McAvoy, Fleury-Faulk is AMAZING!!!!!!!

I've often wondered if there was something in the interview process that made the Canes not want to pick McAvoy (ie..did he not want to play for Carolina so told them he's going to college and really wants to complete his degree, etc..)

I admit it's complete hogwash speculation on my part, but with the success of drafting American born, college defensemen that the Canes had with Dumoulin (even though he succeeded at Pit), Faulk, Slavin, Pesce and even Hanifin; it sure seemed like McAvoy was right up their alley. At the time, someone suspected that Bean's offense was a skill that the Canes didn't have in their system, where McAvoy would have seemed like "more of the same", so maybe that was it, but it just seemed odd. I didn't know enough about either of them to like or hate the pick at the time though.

 

[cptjeff]

Bean was weird in that he went exactly where he was predicted to go, but nobody knew who he was. It was just strange that such a highly rated prospect had next to zero buzz around him.

 

[Vagrant]

I've often wondered if there was something in the interview process that made the Canes not want to pick McAvoy (ie..did he not want to play for Carolina so told them he's going to college and really wants to complete his degree, etc..)

I admit it's complete hogwash speculation on my part, but with the success of drafting American born, college defensemen that the Canes had with Dumoulin (even though he succeeded at Pit), Faulk, Slavin, Pesce and even Hanifin; it sure seemed like McAvoy was right up their alley. At the time, someone suspected that Bean's offense was a skill that the Canes didn't have in their system, where McAvoy would have seemed like "more of the same", so maybe that was it, but it just seemed odd. I didn't know enough about either of them to like or hate the pick at the time though.

mcavoy was a bit of a wild card because there wasn't a real consensus on what he was and there's not a solitary soul who would have predicted his development curve as steeply as it happened. he was just over six feet, which wasn't all that exciting. his skating was good, but not holy shit good. he didn't score a single point in his U18's and realistically that's a tournament that gets incredibly overvalued because it's a consolidation of top prospects so everyone sends their best scouts. a less than stellar showing there can be pretty dramatic for your stock. i had the 17th overall pick in my keeper that year and he was still available and this league usually runs incredibly close to reality. he just didn't have a single skill that really blows your mind. the U20 he played in his draft 1 was where he cemented himself as a force and was named to the tournament team and best defenseman of the tournament. that's the first time that he exhibited his true potential, as he did everything for that team and played about 30 minutes a game. the bruins did it right, as they normally do with their prospects, and asked him to bring that momentum up for their playoff run when such moves were a bit less common. they put him right in the fire and he did fantastic. another tremendous benefit is that they paired him with chara thinking he would be the waterbug compliment to chara's cement feet but what happened is that mcavoy adopted a bit of chara's tenacity and developed a physical edge and a willingness to block shots in addition to the offense he provides. it just ended up being the perfect match and gave chara a wade redden type again that invigorated them both. i thought chara was pretty washed until mcavoy burst onto the scene, so the benefit was mutual.

it still bothers me a little that we've not done that with enough of our prospects. when they're hot and riding the momentum, why not bring them up and see if that temporary rush can smooth out the transition while their confidence is peaking. the few times we've done it we've been rewarded for it. geekie was a prime example this season. foegele the year prior. the old group seemed to always want to bring up a guy when they wanted him, not when he was showing out. i don't think they've challenged guys at the right times. there's no reason with bean's production and pedigree that we should be totally unable to project him. we had a lot of opportunities to try it out but we opted for safer decisions. so now we have an asset that other teams look at sideways because the numbers look great, the draft slot looks great, but the lack of nhl experience is glaring. so he's not even a trade chip. it should have been sorted long ago and it sucks for him and sucks for us. they've almost made a point of ignoring him. to what end i have no idea, but it does feel that way.

 

[bleedgreen]

I want to say Rask fell off after a shoulder injury? Or was that before the injury that he was falling off?

I remember us making the excuse for him that the drop was injury related but I can’t specifically remember if it was the chicken or the egg.

 

[Unsustainable]

Tanguay over Heerema. It would have really set the team in another direction through the 2000s.

knowing PK would have played it cheap: I go a lot more recently and say McAvoy over Bean. TD would pony up to keep McAvoy. Its hard to imagine PK ponying up for Karlsson, Kopitar, or other with Staal, Ward, or others on the squad.
Imagining a D of Slavin-Hamilton, Pesce-McAvoy, Fleury-Faulk is AMAZING!!!!!!!

you could say the same about Prov or Were over Hanifin from a more recent draft.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

you could say the same about Prov or Were over Hanifin from a more recent draft.

True but no Hamilton then.

Redoing the 2014 and 2015 picks would put this team in another stratosphere with Wereski/Prov and Nylander.

oh well, hopefully the new crew can draft 1st rounders better while getting value in the later rounds.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

True but no Hamilton then.

Redoing the 2014 and 2015 picks would put this team in another stratosphere with Wereski/Prov and Nylander.

oh well, hopefully the new crew can draft 1st rounders better while getting value in the later rounds.

The problem with those what-ifs, is the domino effect. Do we still go after Aho in round 2 of 2015 if we already had drafted Nylander in 2014? Maybe not.

If we had Provorov/Werenski and Nylander vs. Hanifin/Fleury, do we end up in a position to draft Necas and more importantly, Svechnikov? Probably not.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The problem with those what-ifs, is the domino effect. Do we still go after Aho in round 2 of 2015 if we already had drafted Nylander in 2014? Maybe not.

If we had Provorov/Werenski and Nylander vs. Hanifin/Fleury, do we end up in a position to draft Necas and more importantly, Svechnikov? Probably not.

All true.

edit* we just need to hit on the future folks to keep us successful.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

The problem with those what-ifs, is the domino effect. Do we still go after Aho in round 2 of 2015 if we already had drafted Nylander in 2014? Maybe not.

If we had Provorov/Werenski and Nylander vs. Hanifin/Fleury, do we end up in a position to draft Necas and more importantly, Svechnikov? Probably not.

Cant we just have it all with Aho, Nylander, Proverenski, Necas, and Svech? Is that so much to ask?????