Seeing as how both teams are currently out of the playoffs, I'd say the team missing the playoffs is more likely...
... Because common sense.
That's not really common sense because we're less than 35 games into the season. That's actually pretty illogical, considering how tightly packed teams are right now and how many games are left in the season.
He asked what was more likely, and using logic, yes, that is more likely. I'm not saying Pens wont make it or that the Oilers will. I'm saying logically, the Pens are currently way more likely to miss than the Oilers are to make.
... And I wont even get into the point that's been stressed for years about how little playoff teams change after Thanksgiving, and even moreso after New Years.
Sorry I misread what you said, I thought you meant it was more likely for the Penguins to miss the playoffs than for the Penguins to make the playoffs. I was being dumb, disregard my comment