Montreal Offseason UFA signings /trade predictions

[BaseballCoach]

Why? At 2-years term, he’s the ideal game breaker that might be even remotely available

Upsets the salary structure, makes an aging Stamkos the focal point of the offence.

His 5 on 5 play is less and less impactful, and we already have a PP sniper.

Let someone else carry the burden of the late stages of Stamkos' career.

Seriously, $12M per season????????????? I'd consider 2 years at TOTAL $12-15M

 

[Laurentide]

Utah changes the landscape considerably this offseason.

They have boat loads of cap room, a strong prospect pool, tons of draft capital, and an owner with deep pockets.

Any older vet looking for term and cap is licking their chops. If Stamkos wants top $, I bet he ends up there.

My brother, who lives in Toronto, works with one of Stamkos' aunts and has spoken with her about her nephew. First and foremost, they are a close-knit family so she knows whereof she speaks. She told my brother that Steven absolutely LOVES Tampa Bay. Loves living there, loves the team, the front office, all of it. His preference is to stay right where he is. So he is more likely to take a hometown discount than he is to seek a big contract elsewhere.

I believe the lack of firepower in our top 6 will be adressed by the management at the draft via a trade. I think they will prefer to trade for a player that fit the core age so they can grow as players together versus signing an aging FA.

Ergo Zegras.

 

[Laurentide]

Me too. I was borderline on Zegras preferring to draft at 5, trade at 7, and check out the options at 6.

However, is the upgrade from 12 to 5/6/7 enough for Philly? Farabee looks like a good middle six winger. I guess the salary makes him less of a bargain than Newhook, but I think the trade cost was higher for Newhook.

According to the website Sound of Hockey, what we gave up for Newhook (picks 31 and 37) were worth around the same as a straight 18/19 OA. Given that Newhook was drafted 16th and has played above his draft rank (around 9th in a re-draft), that was a good deal.

The difference between 5th and 12th is worth around a 27th (which is roughly the rank of the Winnipeg first). If we only pick 6th, the difference is around 33/34 OA and if we would be picking 7th, the difference is around a 39/40.

So Philly would be getting less value for 24 year old Farabee signed for 4 more years at $5.0M and ending at UFA status than what Colorado got for 22 year old Newhook who had 5 RFA years left at the time (and has three more years now at $2.9M ending at RFA status).

Farabee was drafted 14th and would also be around 9th in a re-draft. The two players had very similar ppg and gpg last year, with Newhook 2 years younger, however Farabee played all 82 games.

It's a close call, I think. It depends how Philly sees Farabee's contract versus performance versus total team cap.

Ah, but you are forgetting the salient point, which is that the Flyers' front office is not smart. In fact, they're kinda dumb.

 

[Rapala]

We need some frickin' Power Rangers on our club and not the New York kind.

 

[salbutera]

Upsets the salary structure, makes an aging Stamkos the focal point of the offence.

His 5 on 5 play is less and less impactful, and we already have a PP sniper.

Let someone else carry the burden of the late stages of Stamkos' career.

Seriously, $12M per season????????????? I'd consider 2 years at TOTAL $12M.

yeah… 39G avg over last 3-seasons w 5GP missed total. Sure $6M per year

 

[Miller Time]

My brother, who lives in Toronto, works with one of Stamkos' aunts and has spoken with her about her nephew. First and foremost, they are a close-knit family so she knows whereof she speaks. She told my brother that Steven absolutely LOVES Tampa Bay. Loves living there, loves the team, the front office, all of it. His preference is to stay right where he is. So he is more likely to take a hometown discount than he is to seek a big contract elsewhere.

Good for him if that's what he lands on. Chasing top $$ is rarely the best thing to do. Far too many players make that mistake and live to regret it.

 

[salbutera]

My brother, who lives in Toronto, works with one of Stamkos' aunts and has spoken with her about her nephew. First and foremost, they are a close-knit family so she knows whereof she speaks. She told my brother that Steven absolutely LOVES Tampa Bay. Loves living there, loves the team, the front office, all of it. His preference is to stay right where he is. So he is more likely to take a hometown discount than he is to seek a big contract elsewhere.

A couple of $100K take home? Sure

No professional athlete ever leaves significant $ on the table…. Will not happen in this day & age.

If Habs offer $12M ($11M) in bonus, TBay has to offer a $14M AAV contract to even come close to matching take home.

Stamkos is presently at $8.5M and NHLPA will make damn sure he gets a minimum raise of at lease 25% ($11M range), which TBay can’t afford cap wise

Let’s see if nobility holds when my cousin Vinny & MSL come knocking w a blank chèque, or when ego takes a hit because Brisebois lowballs him…

 

[rahad]

A couple of $100K take home? Sure

No professional athlete ever leaves significant $ on the table…. Will not happen in this day & age.

If Habs offer $12M ($11M) in bonus, TBay has to offer a $14M AAV contract to even come close to matching take home.

Stamkos is presently at $8.5M and NHLPA will make damn sure he gets a minimum raise of at lease 25% ($11M range), which TBay can’t afford cap wise

Let’s see if nobility holds when my cousin Vinny & MSL come knocking w a blank chèque, or when ego takes a hit because Brisebois lowballs him…

View attachment 859745

You want to give a 34 years old Stamkos 12m/year?

 

[salbutera]

You want to give a 34 years old Stamkos 12m/year?

Yup 2-years / $12M AAV ($11M in bonus, $22M collected in 12-months - 1-day)

Avg 39G & missed 5GP total over last 3-full seasons + playoffs

The question is whether TBay will find a way to up their payout to $11M or will some team come out of left field and provide significant term (5-6 years), say Johnnie Utah

 

[rahad]

I would'nt touch Dubois with a 10 feet pole.

8.5M$/yr until 2031, looks like he has major attitude problems.

Meanwhile, Gally is overpaid but he is respected and appreciated. Anderson is shit. Both his and Anderson contrats will end in 2027. I'd probably buy Anderson out. Maybe Gally doesn't make it and retire on LTIR.

Gally body won't survive for the duration of his contract. I can see him retiring with the LTIR.

 

[Sorinth]

Gally body won't survive for the duration of his contract. I can see him retiring with the LTIR.

The only games he didn't play this season were the ones he was suspended for. It's hard to predict how injuries will go, many said Markov was done after he only managed 20 games over 2 seasons but then he went on to only miss 22 games over the next 5 seasons.

I don't think we can count on LTIR.

 

[ottawa]

I think next year should be something like this

Slaf - Suzuki - Cole
Newhook - Dach - Anderson
Roy - Beck - Anderson
RHP - Evans - Armia
Gallagher/Pezz

Trades: Dvorak for scraps
UFAs: none
RFAs: none

 

[salbutera]

I think next year should be something like this

Slaf - Suzuki - Cole
Newhook - Dach - Anderson
Roy - Beck - Armia
Gallagher - Evans - Anderson
Pezz/RHP

Trades: Dvorak for scraps
UFAs: none
RFAs: none

let me reiterate Arpon Basu

“Expect Habs to be agressive finding scoring & adding physicality this summer”

 

[Pat Riot]

I think next year should be something like this

Slaf - Suzuki - Cole
Newhook - Dach - Anderson
Roy - Beck - Anderson
RHP - Evans - Armia
Gallagher/Pezz

Trades: Dvorak for scraps
UFAs: none
RFAs: none

Not enough Andersons for my liking

 

[Scriptor]

My brother, who lives in Toronto, works with one of Stamkos' aunts and has spoken with her about her nephew. First and foremost, they are a close-knit family so she knows whereof she speaks. She told my brother that Steven absolutely LOVES Tampa Bay. Loves living there, loves the team, the front office, all of it. His preference is to stay right where he is. So he is more likely to take a hometown discount than he is to seek a big contract elsewhere.


Ergo Zegras.

23 goals is not firepower. Zegras is more of a playmaker than a scorer and Montreal neeeds scoring.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

23 goals is not firepower. Zegras is more of a playmaker than a scorer and Montreal neeeds scoring.

True. They should investigate Zegras but if the same assets can get them a goal scorer of similar age then you have to take the goal scorer.
But what goal scorer would be available? Necas isn't a big goal scorer either.

 

[BaseballCoach]

yeah… 39G avg over last 3-seasons w 5GP missed total. Sure $6M per year

Well, it's not $12M per year. He is not worth more than Suzuki as an overall player. Tampa has not signed him yet for the same reasons I hesitate.

 

[BaseballCoach]

I think next year should be something like this

Slaf - Suzuki - Cole
Newhook - Dach - Anderson
Roy - Beck - Anderson
RHP - Evans - Armia
Gallagher/Pezz

Trades: Dvorak for scraps
UFAs: none
RFAs: none

If there is no trade possible, then play Dvo over RHP, he is a better hockey player.

Rank of RWs for me:
Armia
Gallagher
Anderson

I certainly would not double-shift Anderson, he is not that good.

Beck is probably not NHL ready yet. This is why i like Monahan as a potential acquisition.

 

[Scintillating10]

Yup 2-years / $12M AAV ($11M in bonus, $22M collected in 12-months - 1-day)

Avg 39G & missed 5GP total over last 3-full seasons + playoffs

The question is whether TBay will find a way to up their payout to $11M or will some team come out of left field and provide significant term (5-6 years), say Johnnie Utah

If Tampa goes out in sweep they may look make changes. If Hughes thinks he is the guy?

We don't have caproom for 12 million do we?

 

[salbutera]

If Tampa goes out in sweep they may look make changes. If Hughes thinks he is the guy?

We don't have caproom for 12 million do we?

There’s $17M

 

[PhysicX]

Judging by this management's previous off-season trades and signings, I don't see a world where the Habs try and sign Stamkos, unless for less than their captain. His age is not a fit, neither his potential salarial demands.

Habs will look to improve the core of this team long-term, with players in Nick Suzuki's age bracket, max nearing 30. That's what every presser and post-offseason 2024-2025 moves point to.

Steven Stamkos could be discussed for the fun of it, but it's not a realistic option in my humble opinion. Management wants the team to grow incrementally and naturally, to improve steadily year-by-year. That way, there is no mirage effect, where the team surprisingly outperforms one, or a few years, but is at risk of hampering its prospect pool in the long run. The combination of Hughes and Gorton, so far, has proven to be methodical and calculated. I still expect the same this off-season. The further this rebuild moves along, the higher the chances of a swing for the fences (most likely before the trade deadline, not during the offseason).

That's how I see things.

 

[waitin425]

Necas is my current RFA obsession. I like the cut of his jib. If we can pry him away from Carolina, and somehow land Demidov in the draft, we are all of the sudden extremely dangerous.

If not Necas, my second wishlist is Zegras. If we add Zegras, while somehow drafting Lindstrom, I am again a very happy man.

I would avoid the entire UFA crop this year as they are too old to fit with our core.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

I think next year should be something like this

Slaf - Suzuki - Cole
Newhook - Dach - Anderson
Roy - Beck - Anderson
RHP - Evans - Armia
Gallagher/Pezz

Trades: Dvorak for scraps
UFAs: none
RFAs: none

That lineup is soft and weak as f***.

Gallagher shouldn't be the extra forward when he was way better than Anderson who's there twice?

 

[EveryDay]

Well, it's not $12M per year. He is not worth more than Suzuki as an overall player. Tampa has not signed him yet for the same reasons I hesitate.

He's not sign yet in Tampa because they have 10M left to sign 4 forwards this summer meaning that without any trades the maximum they can offer to Stamkos is close to 7M per season.

IMO he's gone. Hopefully in MTL but guessing in Vegas.

 

[Benstheman]

Well, it's not $12M per year. He is not worth more than Suzuki as an overall player. Tampa has not signed him yet for the same reasons I hesitate.

The thing is Stamkos is 36 years old and will go to a destination of his choice. He will get good money but there won't be a bidding war for him. If he wants to play for Mtl for whatever reason, he will accept a salary that make sense for both parties.

Nobody will give him more than 8M$ per year, let alone 12 M$. I mean who actually makes 12 M$ per in the NHL? I like Stamkos and would love to have him with the Habs, but even if he was 27 years old and looking for a long term contract, he wouldn't get 12 M$.

I guess the 12M$ idea is probably to give him a contract that he can't refuse. But he would still refuse if he doesn't want to play here so its moot point.