News Article: Money Puck says the Oilers are ____ favourite to win the Cup.

[brentashton]

At least shooting the puck is some semblance of a hockey skill. Skating around in circles is not what hockey players do.

Some do.

 

[bone]

Thanks as always for the exchange. I'd argue that not referencing the standings is a worse probability play than banking on a very imperfect model. Even the models past success isn't all that great. In a standard season the average Win % of NHL teams hovers around 58%. In some years the model is pulling off numbers that barely get to that, other years they were under.

If a person were just guessing at start of season on their knowledge of teams and hunches a starting point of prediction success would be around 60%. Add knowledge of any particularly bad teams like Anaheim, Arizona, SJ, Ottawa continuing to be bad and this gives even better possible predictions.

For instance this is the current power rankings that the model uses to establish their playoff probabilities.

NHL Power Rankings -MoneyPuck NHL Power Rankings

NHL Power Rankings Driven By Analytics

moneypuck.com

Note that Calgary are somehow 7th best. Ahead of several playoff teams. Calgary is somehow ranked as an elite team. Thats their CURRENT ratings. Its obviously flawed.

One would wonder how even a season to season factorial does and whether just using previous seasons standings is more predictive of next year success without using any other coefficients. Just correlation. I haven't seen those posted anywhere.

Agreed with the bolded. So of course I welcome the scrutiny of my rebuttal while scrutinizing your semantic bias definition of what is "reasonable" as it applies to model. This stated tongue and cheek for a laugh.

You'll be extremely pleased to see what it says today.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Calgary 3rd best odds to win the cup now and 3rd best power ranking.

Since we had this discussion, the flames are 1-1-2, losing to Rangers in OT, losing to Detroit in regulation, thrashing Buffalo and losing to Ottawa in OT (3 of the 4 teams, non-playoff teams). Certainly a streak worthy of moving up 4 spots and becoming the favorite to win the Cup out of the West.

Calgary currently isn't in a Playofff spot (by virtue of being tied for 8th but with more games played), but the favored team to win the Cup out of the West.

Great model!!

 

[Drivesaitl]

You'll be extremely pleased to see what it says today.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Calgary 3rd best odds to win the cup now and 3rd best power ranking.

Since we had this discussion, the flames are 1-1-2, losing to Rangers in OT, losing to Detroit in regulation, thrashing Buffalo and losing to Ottawa in OT (3 of the 4 teams, non-playoff teams). Certainly a streak worthy of moving up 4 spots and becoming the favorite to win the Cup out of the West.

Calgary currently isn't in a Playofff spot (by virtue of being tied for 8th but with more games played), but the favored team to win the Cup out of the West.

Great model!!

Thanks.Yep.The only purpose of a model is to have some predictive ability or validity. The model apparently failing at that task. Like I said the model only outputs on basis of inputs, like any model. But I think hockey is complicated enough that its hard to peg down in models. I think anybody pretty knowledgeabl of teams could probably beat the model.

 

[brentashton]

You'll be extremely pleased to see what it says today.

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2024 Playoff & Cup Odds

NHL Playoff Odds updated many times a day. Playoff seeding, Stanley Cup, and Draft Lottery Odds too.

moneypuck.com

Calgary 3rd best odds to win the cup now and 3rd best power ranking.

Since we had this discussion, the flames are 1-1-2, losing to Rangers in OT, losing to Detroit in regulation, thrashing Buffalo and losing to Ottawa in OT (3 of the 4 teams, non-playoff teams). Certainly a streak worthy of moving up 4 spots and becoming the favorite to win the Cup out of the West.

Calgary currently isn't in a Playofff spot (by virtue of being tied for 8th but with more games played), but the favored team to win the Cup out of the West.

Great model!!

I won’t even open the link and give them the satisfaction of a site “hit”. Watta joke. They must be a subsidiary of the Calgary Flames Hockey Club Inc.. Clearly they have confirmed that they are not a credible source for hockey related information.

 

[Oilhawks]

I won’t even open the link and give them the satisfaction of a site “hit”. Watta joke. They must be a subsidiary of the Calgary Flames Hockey Club Inc.. Clearly they have confirmed that they are not a credible source for hockey related information.

It's funny because everything else in Calgary's stats contradict the "win the Cup" stat (lower chance of making the 2nd round and so on). Junk model is junk, they fellate that team every year anyhow

 

[bone]

Thanks.Yep.The only purpose of a model is to have some predictive ability or validity. The model apparently failing at that task. Like I said the model only outputs on basis of inputs, like any model. But I think hockey is complicated enough that its hard to peg down in models. I think anybody pretty knowledgeabl of teams could probably beat the model.

Calgary, a team currently out of playoffs with one series win in the last 8 years is more likely to win the cup than Boston, a team that virtually clinched the President's Trophy before the trade deadline and a team that has won at least one round in 5 of the last 6 seasons and had a Cup Final.

I appreciate their more difficult path to the cup but this model definitely puts way too much emphasis on underlying stats and not enough on real stats.

Most other sites have Calgary around 50/50 to even make playoffs.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Calgary, a team currently out of playoffs with one series win in the last 8 years is more likely to win the cup than Boston, a team that virtually clinched the President's Trophy before the trade deadline and a team that has won at least one round in 5 of the last 6 seasons and had a Cup Final.

I appreciate their more difficult but this model definitely puts way too much emphasis on underlying stats and not enough on real stats.

Most other sites have Calgary around 50/50 to even make playoffs.

Pretty much all of what I was stating in first page of thread. Its why I would prefer knowledgeable prediction based on tangibles and knowns and track records. I even made the comment that year to year standings results would have higher correlative prediction most years than this model. Their track record in past years ain't that great either.

 

[Stoneman89]

I mean, people laugh but look how many points McDavid rattled off last year and they got to the conference finals. Didn't he have like 2 points per game?

As far as the West goes, I've been saying they probably have the best chance, other than maybe Colorado with some real deadline help.

Who else from the West can you really see win the cup? Honestly?

Dallas? Maybe.

Winnipeg? Hellebuyck is the best in the West as far as I'm concerned, so I wouldn't completely write them off.

Minnesota? lol. They either choose to not play their best goalie or they still don't even know that MAF sucks. And I don't even think Evason/Guerin even believe that MAF is toast.

Vegas? Can't score enough goals, have mediocre goalies and injury case Stone looks like he's done for the year.

Seattle? No...... Just, it's a no. It would be a nice story, but I don't think it's happening.

LA? Same thing. They're playing a career minor league goalie that they've won a ridiculous amount (unsustainable) with with how mediocre he's been. Quick's toast. And their head coach SUCKS. They already got strikes against them with Todd McLOSER coaching, then there's the goaltending.

Calgary? They just find ways to lose games.

Keep laughing. I have no use for this Edmonton team either, but McDavid ain't gonna go his entire career without a cup, if not multiple.

Now, do I think they will beat someone like Boston in the finals? Don't know about that......

Edmonton vs Colorado could be the WCF for the second year in a row, but I'm not very high on Colorado either. They lost Burakovsky and Kadri and they've been replaced with either nobody or infeior replacements, but they're a pretty good deadline acquisition or two and a Landeskog away from being a serious threat again.

Too early to give a solid opinion. Best to wait until after the trade deadline and see what everyone else, including us, does.

 

[bone]

Calgary, a team currently out of playoffs with one series win in the last 8 years is more likely to win the cup than Boston, a team that virtually clinched the President's Trophy before the trade deadline and a team that has won at least one round in 5 of the last 6 seasons and had a Cup Final.

I appreciate their more difficult path to the cup but this model definitely puts way too much emphasis on underlying stats and not enough on real stats.

Most other sites have Calgary around 50/50 to even make playoffs.

An now today Edmonton's jumps over Calgary in their power rankings despite losing the game. I'm starting to think it only cares about xGF% and not really anything more.