News Article: Money Puck says the Oilers are ____ favourite to win the Cup.

[Slats432]

2nd. I think they are smoking something. It might even be illegal.

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[FlameChampion]

2nd. I think they are smoking something. It might even be illegal.

Not sure I buy it but the west is pretty wide open.

Its hard to be confident when the team sputters around in 2022 and finally start to play how they are capable in 2023. We dont really know what to make about our team at this point in time. Probably be more clear by the trade deadline.

 

[bucks_oil]

This poll/analysis is meaningless. Most of the contenders will make huge adds at the deadline.

The fact that we are so tight against the cup that we will struggle to make a meaningful addition tells me that this analysis did not factor in deadline cap space... which makes it pointless IMO.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

This is why I keep saying GO All In.

Honestly, the Western Conference is wide open.

 

[29Beast97Mode]

Depends on goaltending tbh

 

[Mr Kot]

I can somewhat see it. McDavid is nuclear right now and they have played a tighter 5v5 game lately. Goaltending is (sort of) more stable too. West is wide open, so Oilers have a easier road to at least the semis.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

This thing had the flames as cup favs for like half the season.

 

[Fourier]

2nd. I think they are smoking something. It might even be illegal.

Actually this makes a lot more mathematical sense than one might believe. These are all based on conditional probabilities. This essentially reflects the fact that their path to getting to the finals is seen to be much easier than for some of the Eastern teams. In the east right now there are 4 teams that would seem to be very comparable with one another. That fact alone reduces the odds of each one of them winning the cup.

In the west the only team that I think you can say should be better than the Oilers if everyone was playing at the top of their games is Colorado. But they are currently sitting in a spot where their odds of even making the playoffs are only 70% that has a massive impact on their odds going further.


Despite what it seems to some on the main board it does not say they are the second best team.

 

[Oilhawks]

Moneypuck seems pretty prone to momentum swings with their model. Earlier in the season they had them as a near sure bet to miss. I don't take much stock in their playoff odds. Dom at The Athletic's model is not without it's flaws but seems more consistent with the way teams are rated for the remaining simulated games.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Actually this makes a lot more mathematical sense than one might believe. These are all based on conditional probabilities. This essentially reflects the fact that their path to getting to the finals is seen to be much easier than for some of the Eastern teams. In the east right now there are 4 teams that would seem to be very comparable with one another. That fact alone reduces the odds of each one of them winning the cup.

In the west the only team that I think you can say should be better than the Oilers if everyone was playing at the top of their games is Colorado. But they are currently sitting in a spot where their odds of even making the playoffs are only 70% that has a massive impact on their odds going further.


Despite what it seems to some on the main board it does not say they are the second best team.

Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. All of these have chances. Who really has a chance of wining in East? Boston, Carolina? I don't think NJ does much in the playoffs and the Leafs NEVER do.

I don't think regular season standings are very reflective of who wins the cup. Nor is the Presidents Trophy historically.

Moneypuck seems pretty prone to momentum swings with their model. Earlier in the season they had them as a near sure bet to miss. I don't take much stock in their playoff odds. Dom at The Athletic's model is not without it's flaws but seems more consistent with the way teams are rated for the remaining simulated games.

Somebody tell me how Calgary Flames have a greater Moneypuck chance of making playoffs than the Colorado Avalanche? Thats just dumb all day and nothing at all to support it. WTF is the model?

Colorado are defending champs. They are an indisputed elite team. They have same pts and two games in hand on Calgary and they have been the better team for months. How does Moneypuck say that Calgary has a 15% greater chance of making playoffs? I wonder how much their formula factors in difficulty of remaining schedule instead of common sense? Even if Colorado has a more difficult schedule it simply doesn't matter. Colorado are defending champs and either the best team, or close to it. Difficulty of opponents doesn't even factor logically when you're the champs.

 

[Oilhawks]

Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. All of these have chances. Who really has a chance of wining in East? Boston, Carolina? I don't think NJ does much in the playoffs and the Leafs NEVER do.

I don't think regular season standings are very reflective of who wins the cup. Nor is the Presidents Trophy historically.


Somebody tell me how Calgary Flames have a greater Moneypuck chance of making playoffs than the Colorado Avalanche? Thats just dumb all day and nothing at all to support it. WTF is the model?

These guys were riding Calgary all last season as well. Honestly don’t mind their “deserve to win o meter” as it seems to reflect well in most games but this model is a throwaway.

 

[Stoneman89]

Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. All of these have chances. Who really has a chance of wining in East? Boston, Carolina? I don't think NJ does much in the playoffs and the Leafs NEVER do.

I don't think regular season standings are very reflective of who wins the cup. Nor is the Presidents Trophy historically.


Somebody tell me how Calgary Flames have a greater Moneypuck chance of making playoffs than the Colorado Avalanche? Thats just dumb all day and nothing at all to support it. WTF is the model?

Colorado are defending champs. They are an indisputed elite team. They have same pts and two games in hand on Calgary and they have been the better team for months. How does Moneypuck say that Calgary has a 15% greater chance of making playoffs? I wonder how much their formula factors in difficulty of remaining schedule instead of common sense?

Don't forget about Tampa in the east. They know how to win when it counts.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Don't forget about Tampa in the east. They know how to win when it counts.

For sure. Just my omission in listing them. Its what the "money" stats kinds of engines never feature. That some clubs just know how to W in the playoffs and Tampa does since they realized they had to bulk up their roster with playoff level toughness.

 

[Behind Enemy Lines]

People pay attention to these things?! Who knew...

 

[Arpeggio]

It's because the road out of the Pacific is much easier than the road for other teams. If the Avalanche were currently sitting second in the division rather than on the cutline, their odds would be drastically higher, probably close to the best in the west. Once they move out of the wild card fight and firmly into a playoff position, I expect their odds to improve dramatically.

The top three in each of the eastern divisions are probably rated higher than the Oilers based on their underlying numbers, whereas last time I checked the Oilers were still underperforming their expected results, yet are still firmly in a playoff position and should be challenging for the division lead. To win the cup, the Oil probably only have to beat one top 5 team in the league (assuming you believe the best teams are in the East), whereas a team in the East will have to beat 2, possibly 3 top 5 teams just to get to the Finals.

 

[Chet Manley]

This is why I keep saying GO All In.

Honestly, the Western Conference is wide open.

This and the team has ~1 1/2 seasons to convince Leon to sign an extension. IT'S GO TIME! I don't want to see the Oiler's have any draft picks for like the next 4 years.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

The Oilers are a better team than most here realize.

They're middle of the pack defensively and in terms of goaltending.

 

[Fourier]

Colorado, Dallas, Vegas, Edmonton. All of these have chances. Who really has a chance of wining in East? Boston, Carolina? I don't think NJ does much in the playoffs and the Leafs NEVER do.

I don't think regular season standings are very reflective of who wins the cup. Nor is the Presidents Trophy historically.


Somebody tell me how Calgary Flames have a greater Moneypuck chance of making playoffs than the Colorado Avalanche? Thats just dumb all day and nothing at all to support it. WTF is the model?

Colorado are defending champs. They are an indisputed elite team. They have same pts and two games in hand on Calgary and they have been the better team for months. How does Moneypuck say that Calgary has a 15% greater chance of making playoffs? I wonder how much their formula factors in difficulty of remaining schedule instead of common sense? Even if Colorado has a more difficult schedule it simply doesn't matter. Colorado are defending champs and either the best team, or close to it. Difficulty of opponents doesn't even factor logically when you're the champs.

This is all basic probability. Its not a statement about how good the team a team is on paper. The key here been that the top two teams in the Avs division are too far in front for them to likely be caught by the Avs. That alone lower the expected probability of the AVs making it significantly. It is also unlikely that 5 teams come out of the division. In essence you are looking at two slots for Minnesota, Colorado and Nashville.

In the Pacific the standings are so tight that any team currently in a playoff spot could falter and fall out. You bascially have 5 teams competing for 4 spots plus the possibility of the extra WC spot. The Pacific teams also have easier schedules going forward.

The reality is that we are roughly 50 games in and the Avs have been on the outside looking in much of the season. They are not the elite team they were last year as they have lost a lot of depth and some of the guys they had last year are underperforming or have significant injuries. They may still be the class of the Conference when fully healthy but it is absolutely reasonable that their odds of making the playoffs from here would be no better than Calgary.

As a final illustration of what I mean assume that next year the NHL took the 8 best teams in the league and the 8 worst teams and put them in two divisions. The teams in the division with the 8 best teams would not all have better chances to make the playoffs than the teams in the division with the worst division.

 

[Aerchon]

I think before you pencil the Oilers in as a legit contender they have to win the Pacific at least and then maybe even the West period during the regular season.

After that you then just hope to heck you dont get Colorado in the first round, but will then have to play them at some point anyways.

After that you will likely face the insanely hot Bruins to actually win the cup.

Its not exactly a promising year for the Oilers IMO. They started rather roughly as well and are only showing glimpses of a contender which they seemed like they were last year.

Having said all that as negative. I like this team. I like the goaltending. I think the defense is better than credited. Its just a matter of rolling into the playoffs on another level and maintaining that through-out. You would hope last year proved what it will take to advance to the cup finals but team development + the different playoff environment is too unpredictable.

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is all basic probability. Its not a statement about how good the team a team is on paper. The key here been that the top two teams in the Avs division are too far in front for them to likely be caught by the Avs. That alone lower the expected probability of the AVs making it significantly. It is also unlikely that 5 teams come out of the division. In essence you are looking at two slots for Minnesota, Colorado and Nashville.

In the Pacific the standings are so tight that any team currently in a playoff spot could falter and fall out. You bascially have 5 teams competing for 4 spots plus the possibility of the extra WC spot. The Pacific teams also have easier schedules going forward.

The reality is that we are roughly 50 games in and the Avs have been on the outside looking in much of the season. They are not the elite team they were last year as they have lost a lot of depth and some of the guys they had last year are underperforming or have significant injuries. They may still be the class of the Conference when fully healthy but it is absolutely reasonable that their odds of making the playoffs from here would be no better than Calgary.

As a final illustration of what I mean assume that next year the NHL took the 8 best teams in the league and the 8 worst teams and put them in two divisions. The teams in the division with the 8 best teams would not all have better chances to make the playoffs than the teams in the division with the worst division.

The odds are stated as makng the playoffs, not where they finish thus two spots being "taken up" (they aren't) is not barring Colorado from playoffs. nor is Minnesota who are a meager one pt ahead of them or Calgary who Colorado have two games on hand on.

Basic probability is best at determining outcomes where no other variables exist except random chance. But in the case of Pro sports and ranking evaluation and determination of who might make playoffs its kind of silly to use just probability when so many salient variables exist.

Nashville aren't even in the race realistically speaking. Yes, Nashville is impacted potentially by what division they are in but Colorado isn't. So basically two spots for Colorado and Minnesota.

Sorry, but the bolded is unreasonable. its my whole point. The moneyball odds had Calgary not even chances but 15% GREATER chances than the SC champs. Any way you slice it thats a dumb determination.

Thing is Flames are OUT of a playoff spot right now and there win percentage is identical to Nashville. Yet Calgary is being cited as having OVER 84% chance of making playoffs. How does that work? It flies off the page its so ridiculous.

 

[Slats432]

I like this team but do I like them more than the Bruins, Leafs, Lightning, Avalanche.....only a mere 8 games ago people were talking about firing Woody...lol

 

[FlameChampion]

These type of models just dont tend to work.

What makes anyone think Carolina is a threat this year versus any other year? Pretty much the same team as in the past. They never get the star power or goaltending to push them past.

Even a team like the Bruins. Its been so long since they did anything in the playoffs. I know they have a great thing going this year. But its just an older version of much of the same team in the past. Ullmark has been great though.

Whatever this chart says, I'd still fear the Colorados and Tampa Bay's of the world over some of these teams. Least with Edmonton, we saw what McDrai did last year. They were special. So you never know.

 

[Mr Positive]

These type of models just dont tend to work.

What makes anyone think Carolina is a threat this year versus any other year? Pretty much the same team as in the past. They never get the star power or goaltending to push them past.

Even a team like the Bruins. Its been so long since they did anything in the playoffs. I know they have a great thing going this year. But its just an older version of much of the same team in the past. Ullmark has been great though.

Whatever this chart says, I'd still fear the Colorados and Tampa Bay's of the world over some of these teams. Least with Edmonton, we saw what McDrai did last year. They were special. So you never know.

I do think there is something to it in that at least we have the raw material to get to that stage and lose to the 'true' contender. That's not a bad spot to be at to this point. It's up to the players we have to show we can be more than that now, and it is also up to the GM to make the right moves to make that last step forward to truly contend

 

[Fourier]

The odds are stated as makng the playoffs, not where they finish thus two spots being "taken up" (they aren't) is not barring Colorado from playoffs. nor is Minnesota who are a meager one pt ahead of them or Calgary who Colorado have two games on hand on.

Basic probability is best at determining outcomes where no other variables exist except random chance. But in the case of Pro sports and ranking evaluation and determination of who might make playoffs its kind of silly to use just probability when so many salient variables exist.

Nashville aren't even in the race realistically speaking. Yes, Nashville is impacted potentially by what division they are in but Colorado isn't. So basically two spots for Colorado and Minnesota.

Sorry, but the bolded is unreasonable. its my whole point. The moneyball odds had Calgary not even chances but 15% GREATER chances than the SC champs. Any way you slice it thats a dumb determination.

Thing is Flames are OUT of a playoff spot right now and there win percentage is identical to Nashville. Yet Calgary is being cited as having OVER 84% chance of making playoffs. How does that work? It flies off the page its so ridiculous.

Once you make the bolded statement your argument goes completely down the tubes. This is really is basic math not rocket science. But your statement is exactly why most people struggle with many aspects of probability. You are ignoring aspects of the event space that are absolutely relevant but which seem not to matter. This is precisely how casinos make their money. This is for example why the Monty Hall Problem perplexes so many.

Tell me this. Suppose that the NHL changed there rules mid stream and said that only the first two teams in the division would make the playoffs. Would the Avs still have a better chance to make it than the Flames. What about if only the divison champ would make it. Would the elite Avs have a better chance to make it than say the Oilers??

Right now these models have a fairly significant error band because there are many games left and teams are still quite bunched. Varying the model slightly can make a big difference at the margins as well.

Now is I am not arguing that the model is perfect or even the best. Just that the results are reasonable and that they do not represent a ranking of the teams absolute strength. Hockey reference has the Flames at 60% top make the playoffs with the Avs at 81%, But their model is based on only 1000 simulations which is actually rather small. Sportsclub used 100's of thousands of simulations. Moneypuck runs 100000 simulations.

This site for example

NHL Playoff Odds

NHL team playoff odds tracked from the preseason to current day.

powerrankingsguru.com

has the odds for Avs to make it at 84.7% and the Flames at 73.0%. This is also reasonable. I say this because, as I said above, at this stage in the year playoff odds for teams on the bubble are extremely sensitive to the core assumptions the model makes.

 

[brentashton]

I like this team but do I like them more than the Bruins, Leafs, Lightning, Avalanche.....only a mere 8 games ago people were talking about firing Woody...lol

They’re still talking about it on the dark web.