MLD 2017 Final: Richmond Sockeyes vs. Regina Capitals
- Thread starter VanIslander
- Start date
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
It's the number 1 seed vs. the number 2 seed for the championship!
There's a full two weeks for discussion.
Voting Day won't be until Friday, September 29th.
There's a full two weeks for discussion.
Voting Day won't be until Friday, September 29th.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Looking forward to this, Hedberg. I like my series with you better than any except Rob Scuderi... and I think he's retired. Let's have a good time.
Steve Smith? You trust a guy who'd score on his own net in OT?
Seriously though, I'm away until Monday, will get into it then
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Oh wow. Sometimes you shouldn't just believe family member's memories. 14:46 left in the 3rd? Especially given they were, you know, the Oilers, probably should've faded out of history.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
I remember watching it live as a high school student and everybody's heart sank, as the series - and the game - was so closely battled that it deflated us. 
Later, after it was over, the anger kicked in. 
A lot of Smith jokes and ridicle and scorn went about.
But don't feel sorry for the trait-, er, guy who made a mistake.
He went on to play for and captain the Flames. The ultimate insult!
Later, after it was over, the anger kicked in. A lot of Smith jokes and ridicle and scorn went about.But don't feel sorry for the trait-, er, guy who made a mistake.
He went on to play for and captain the Flames. The ultimate insult!
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Preparing for a possible death in the family. Life could get pretty hairy shortly. I've been trying to find time for this series but it's been hard and it may get harder. Still, I'll get something in before the end, somehow.
Top lines VsX:
Cooper 80
Lacroix 76
Savard 73
Hejduk 73
Vickers 59
Hartnell 58
Regina has the edge here assuming you buy Cooper's OHA dominance is meaningful, to which seventies builds a good case here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=135665225&postcount=6. There may be a question of the exact number in the formula, but the very best case for Richmond here is the lines are a wash.
2nd Line VSX:
Ray Whitney 73
Garry Unger 73
Jason Allison 66
Taylor Hall 64
Steve Thomas 64
Kevin Dineen 59
Richmond is both outmatched here offensively and in terms of line cohesiveness.
The next installment; doe Richmond have the strengths to combat this top six discrepancy?
Cooper 80
Lacroix 76
Savard 73
Hejduk 73
Vickers 59
Hartnell 58
Regina has the edge here assuming you buy Cooper's OHA dominance is meaningful, to which seventies builds a good case here: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=135665225&postcount=6. There may be a question of the exact number in the formula, but the very best case for Richmond here is the lines are a wash.
2nd Line VSX:
Ray Whitney 73
Garry Unger 73
Jason Allison 66
Taylor Hall 64
Steve Thomas 64
Kevin Dineen 59
Richmond is both outmatched here offensively and in terms of line cohesiveness.
The next installment; doe Richmond have the strengths to combat this top six discrepancy?
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
ESVsX for the 3rd lines:
Smith: 75 (only raw VsX)
Stemkowski: 68
Holik: 67 (only raw CSSR VsX)
Goldsworthy: 66
Stanley 64 (only raw pre-merger VsX)
M.Koivu: 61
Warwick: 60 (only raw VsX)
Drury: 58
Corson: 56
Stewart: 55
Lonsberry: 53
Chamberlain: 51 (only raw VsX)
This is just a starting point to see where our players stand as even strength scorers. Bolded are Regina. There's a wide range from Smith at 75, to Chamberlain at 51; however, their numbers seem extreme because they are based on raw VsX, and Smith was surely on the PP as much as any star forward, and Chamberlain almost surely never was. Knowing what we know about how these numbers tend to look for modern players, I would hypothesize Smith's ES score would be around 70, and Chamberlain's closer to 60. I don't think Holik, Warwick and Stanley merit much in the way of adjustment.
Even with those mental adjustments made, it seems that Richmond's bottom sixers have as much as 5% more offensive potential than Regina's. Can that make a difference? Sure it can. But let's look at what else these players bring to the table. Here is how I would rank these 12 players by defensive ability:
Koivu
Chamberlain
Stewart
Drury
Corson
Stemkowski
Lonsberry
Holik
Stanley
Warwick
Goldsworthy
Smith
I think there are five tiers. First, we know or have very good reason to believe they were elite or excellent defensively. In the second, they have some degree of good defense very much worthy of a bottom six role here. Next is Stanley, who we suspect has "some" defensive ability but it isn't really substantiated. Next are two power forward types, for whom quite a lot is documented, but it seems a defensive game is not really part of what they do. Last is Smith, who I think we are pretty sure is an offense-only guy. I think Regina has the overall edge defensively on these lines. I can't put it into an easily quantifiable percentage like I did for offense, but I think the edge is there.
Lastly, and maybe it's not quite as important as offense or defense, but there is physicality to consider. In a long series you can wear down your opponent, perhaps cause nagging injuries and win the mental battles. Here's where I see these guys as physical players:
Chamberlain
Corson
Stemkowski
Holik
Warwick
Drury
Goldsworthy
Lonsberry
Koivu
Stewart
Stanley
Smith
I think that the two biggest, and four of the five most significant physical threats on these two lines are on Regina. I think we have the physical edge here as well. This, combined with defense, should render their slight edge in raw offensive talent irrelevant. Hedberg is, of course, free to come back with some revised rankings if there is something I've overlooked.
Smith: 75 (only raw VsX)
Stemkowski: 68
Holik: 67 (only raw CSSR VsX)
Goldsworthy: 66
Stanley 64 (only raw pre-merger VsX)
M.Koivu: 61
Warwick: 60 (only raw VsX)
Drury: 58
Corson: 56
Stewart: 55
Lonsberry: 53
Chamberlain: 51 (only raw VsX)
This is just a starting point to see where our players stand as even strength scorers. Bolded are Regina. There's a wide range from Smith at 75, to Chamberlain at 51; however, their numbers seem extreme because they are based on raw VsX, and Smith was surely on the PP as much as any star forward, and Chamberlain almost surely never was. Knowing what we know about how these numbers tend to look for modern players, I would hypothesize Smith's ES score would be around 70, and Chamberlain's closer to 60. I don't think Holik, Warwick and Stanley merit much in the way of adjustment.
Even with those mental adjustments made, it seems that Richmond's bottom sixers have as much as 5% more offensive potential than Regina's. Can that make a difference? Sure it can. But let's look at what else these players bring to the table. Here is how I would rank these 12 players by defensive ability:
Koivu
Chamberlain
Stewart
Drury
Corson
Stemkowski
Lonsberry
Holik
Stanley
Warwick
Goldsworthy
Smith
I think there are five tiers. First, we know or have very good reason to believe they were elite or excellent defensively. In the second, they have some degree of good defense very much worthy of a bottom six role here. Next is Stanley, who we suspect has "some" defensive ability but it isn't really substantiated. Next are two power forward types, for whom quite a lot is documented, but it seems a defensive game is not really part of what they do. Last is Smith, who I think we are pretty sure is an offense-only guy. I think Regina has the overall edge defensively on these lines. I can't put it into an easily quantifiable percentage like I did for offense, but I think the edge is there.
Lastly, and maybe it's not quite as important as offense or defense, but there is physicality to consider. In a long series you can wear down your opponent, perhaps cause nagging injuries and win the mental battles. Here's where I see these guys as physical players:
Chamberlain
Corson
Stemkowski
Holik
Warwick
Drury
Goldsworthy
Lonsberry
Koivu
Stewart
Stanley
Smith
I think that the two biggest, and four of the five most significant physical threats on these two lines are on Regina. I think we have the physical edge here as well. This, combined with defense, should render their slight edge in raw offensive talent irrelevant. Hedberg is, of course, free to come back with some revised rankings if there is something I've overlooked.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Goaltending:
I haven't made it a secret that Martin is my favourite goalie here, but Roach is my second favourite too, so I don't see this being a big advantage either way.
Coaching:
I see this one as a big advantage for Regina. Robinson would make an outstanding MLD assistant, but Adams is an outstanding MLD head coach.
I haven't made it a secret that Martin is my favourite goalie here, but Roach is my second favourite too, so I don't see this being a big advantage either way.
Coaching:
I see this one as a big advantage for Regina. Robinson would make an outstanding MLD assistant, but Adams is an outstanding MLD head coach.
No, my team was designed to outscore its problems with only a modicum of attention paid to intangibles.
I'll do the defenses today.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
It's been a decade since I've seen that type of censoring."Modi***" .....omg. Wow. Hate this already.
I didn't get a chance to reply to your defence opus, but I did see it. What would you say was a fair summary, that our offensive abilities are similar, your modern era defenceman played slightly more integral roles to their teams, but that your pre-modern defenceman played significantly more important roles?
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
I wish conversation would focus on styles of play, strengths and weaknesses of a player's game, how they match-up and how much experience and production they had in actual playoff hockey scenarios.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
It was that our PP offense was similar, but overall puck moving was your advantage (mainly due to a less inept #5/6 in that regard). But in overall value, my four modern guys played about a minute a game more in their primes, for teams about 10% better. For the other guys (O6, WHA, pre-NHLx2), the jist of it was that Evans occupied a relatively higher spot in hockey's hierarchy than the others, followed fairly closely by Ley and Loughlin, with Prodgers bringing up the rear - though by this metric Prodgers projected to be a career #3 defenseman if in the 70s, which would not make him underqualified for this draft.
I've come to the conclusion that's essentially the problem with my team - it's a fantasy hockey that exists to hammer the other team offensively but lacks particular style to match up well or poorly against other teams. So if you can demonstrate I don't have a big offensive edge, my team runs into trouble quite quickly.
However, the home ice is key and Robinson has a good track record on defensive results (really, it's more about maintaining possession more). The other thing I'd defend my 4th line as a decent checking unit if you consider most great checking lines have one guy who's more offensive/forechecking. I mean one of the best I've seen in the modern NHL had Raffi Torres on it. This isn't to say with the wide net we have you can stick anyone on a line as some succesful NHL teams haves, but I do think an average defensive player with two good ones makes an effective line.
seventieslord
Student Of The Game
Losing that mega-post kinda killed my desire to argue this series any further... let's move on to voting and let the chips fall where they may.
VanIslander
A 19-year ATDer on HfBoards
Voting is OPEN for the MLD 2017 final series.
Get your vote in today, with 3 stars, to Johnny Engine!
Get your vote in today, with 3 stars, to Johnny Engine!
tony d
Registered User
Johnny Engine
Moderator
- Jul 29, 2009
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Johnny Engine
Moderator
- Jul 29, 2009
- 4,981
- 2,363
Presenting your 2017 MLD champions, the Richmond Sockeyes!
Richmond took the final series in 6 games, and Seth Martin was awarded the honor of finals MVP, narrowly edging out teammate Milan Hejduk. John Ross Roach stood tall in a losing cause, while Goldie Prodgers and Carson Cooper both came up big.
Richmond took the final series in 6 games, and Seth Martin was awarded the honor of finals MVP, narrowly edging out teammate Milan Hejduk. John Ross Roach stood tall in a losing cause, while Goldie Prodgers and Carson Cooper both came up big.
