MLD 2014 Semifinals - Montagu Allan - (1) Idaho Steelheads vs. (2) Lahti Pelicans

[seventieslord]

Herb Cain - Andre Lacroix - Grant Warwick
Nick Mickoski - Buddy O'Connor - Mickey Redmond
Rabbit McVeigh - Syl Apps Jr - Barney Stanley
Magnus Arvedson - Mike Ricci (A) - Jimmy Peters
Bobby Carpenter - Bronco Horvath

Adrian Aucoin (A) - Clem Loughlin (C)
Dan Hamhuis - Steve Chiasson
Dick Redmond - Hy Buller
Joe Jerwa - Jim Morrison

Ryan Miller
Billy Nicholson

Coach: Rudy Pilous

PP1: Mickoski - O'Connor - M. Redmond - D. Redmond - Aucoin
PP2: Cain - Lacroix - Warwick - Chiasson - Loughlin
PK1: Ricci - Arvedson - Hamhuis - Aucoin
PK2: McVeigh - Mickoski - Loughlin - Buller
PK3: Lacroix - Stanley - Chiasson - Aucoin

VS

Lahti Pelicans​

Coach: Eddie Gerard

Marc Tardif -- Nicklas Bäckström -- Viktor Shalimov
Red Hamill -- Scott Gomez -- Jiri Lala
Baldy Cotton -- Patrik Sundstrom -- Chico Maki
Rob Zamuner -- Charlie Burns --Charlie Sands
Bill Ezinicki, RW Alex Burrows, RW Geoff Courtnell, LW (Sands and Zamuner can both play C)

Lou Fontinato -- Bryan McCabe
Niklas Kronwall -- Mario Marois
Percy Traub -- John Van Boxmeer
Alex Pietrangelo

John Bouse Hutton
Don Edwards​

PP1: Tardif - Backstrom - Shalimov - McCabe - Van Boxmeer
PP2: Hamill - Gomez - Lala - Kronwall - Marois
PK1: Burns - Maki - Fontinato - Traub
PK2: Zamuner - Cotton - McCabe - Marois
PK3: Sands/Backstrom/Sundstrom

​

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[seventieslord]

please make a series out of this!

(i know, i know, I'm one to talk)

 

[King Forsberg]

Two really good coaches (relatively) in this one.
I like the Pelicans defense a little more in this on. McCabe is the best defender of the bunch. I don't like Aucoin on a top pair.

 

[Hedberg]

I like the Pelicans defense a little more in this on. McCabe is the best defender of the bunch. I don't like Aucoin on a top pair.

Why not? Aucoin did handle top pairing minutes in the NHL effectively (consider that he logged 3 - 6 minutes a game more than MLD 2nd Team All-Star Kenny Jonsson with the Islanders). After his 3 year peak with the Islanders, he remained 2 or 3rd in ice time for the next six years. 10 (11 if you count the 04-05 lockout season, where he surely would have been top pairing) years as a top pair or 3rd* defenceman in the NHL, nearly all on playoff teams is a very decent MLD resume, especially on a team that's 2nd pairing is going to play a lot of minutes as well.


* = Ice team by team

01-02 = 1st
02-03 = 1st
03-04 = 1st
05-06 = 3rd (averaged 0:02 less per game than #2)
06-07 = 2nd
07-08 = 3rd
08-09 = 2nd
09-10 = 2nd
10-11 = 2nd
11-12 = 3rd

 

[seventieslord]

I like Jonsson, but was he better than Aucoin? They're the same age, and on the Isles, Aucoin was clearly better by any measure.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Awards voting for Lahti Defensemen

McCabe - Norris 4, 9 / AS 4, 9, 14
Fontinato - Norris 7, 9 (no complete All Star voting records in years he got Norris votes)
Kronwall - Norris 10, 13 / AS 11, 14 / 2x WC AS / 1 WC MVP
Marois - Norris 8, 9 / AS 11, 11
Van Boxmeer - Norris 11, 18 / AS 11, 17, 25
Traub - non-NHL. WCHL All Star - 1st, 2nd, 2nd

Awards for Idaho defensemen

Aucoin - Norris 5, 8 / AS 5, 8
Loughlin - non-NHL. PCHA All Star - 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 2nd
Hamhuis - Norris 10, 16 / AS 10, 16
Chiasson - Norris no votes / AS 14 (2 votes)
Redmond - Norris 9 / AS 10, 14, 15, 22
Buller - Norris didn't exist yet / AS 3

Chiasson sticks out as a weakness in the top 4 for Idaho.

 

[Hedberg]

Chiasson sticks out as a weakness in the top 4 for Idaho.

Only if Norris voting is the only gauge of defense worth. If we look at seventies' defenceman study from the 2012 ATD (http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=47027609&postcount=583), Chiasson looks very similar to someone like Jovanovski, who received far more awards attention. Just because he didn't receive a few meaningless Norris votes, I don't think the record tells us much other than he wasn't a top-10 defenceman ever, which is something no one ever claimed. And if there had been some voter who felt Chiasson (or Kronwall or Marois) was a top 5 defenseman in the league, we probably shouldn't really value their opinion highly. Turning opinion into empirical evidence isn't a great evaluative tool (it is a bit helpful for early NHL as there's such little information but there's better ways to examine modern players)

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

Only if Norris voting is the only gauge of defense worth. If we look at seventies' defenceman study from the 2012 ATD (http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=47027609&postcount=583), Chiasson looks very similar to someone like Jovanovski, who received far more awards attention. Just because he didn't receive a few meaningless Norris votes, I don't think the record tells us much other than he wasn't a top-10 defenceman ever, which is something no one ever claimed. Turning opinion into empirical evidence isn't a great evaluative tool (it is a bit helpful for early NHL as there's such little information but there's better ways to examine modern players)

I don't know. I only caught the tail end of Chiasson's career, but I remember him as a fairly nondescript offense-first defenseman. I get what you're saying about a few meaningless Norris votes, which is why I liked to see guys at least get a few votes on more than one occasion. Again, it's not perfect, but I don't think estimates of ice time are, either.

Iain Fyffe, the guy who created the formula for estimating ice times has said there is an average error for defensemen of 6.2%: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1731329, which I don't think has been previously acknowledged. That effectively comes out to a minute and a half in either direction, and that's just the average error.

 

[seventieslord]

I don't know. I only caught the tail end of Chiasson's career, but I remember him as a fairly nondescript offense-first defenseman. I get what you're saying about a few meaningless Norris votes, which is why I liked to see guys at least get a few votes on more than one occasion. Again, it's not perfect, but I don't think estimates of ice time are, either.

Iain Fyffe, the guy who created the formula for estimating ice times has said there is an average error for defensemen of 6.2%: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1731329, which I don't think has been previously acknowledged. That effectively comes out to a minute and a half in either direction, and that's just the average error.

what's the average error when you're looking at a careers worth of data, though? One particular player is most likely to be high one year, low the next, and over the long run you can trust the numbers. It would be very rare for someone to be consistently very high or very low.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

what's the average error when you're looking at a careers worth of data, though? One particular player is most likely to be high one year, low the next, and over the long run you can trust the numbers. It would be very rare for someone to be consistently very high or very low.

Probably less than that, though you'd have to ask Iain how much less. I would assume that the same types of players in similar situations would tend to have the error going in the same direction more often than not.

 

[jkrx]

I don't know. I only caught the tail end of Chiasson's career, but I remember him as a fairly nondescript offense-first defenseman. I get what you're saying about a few meaningless Norris votes, which is why I liked to see guys at least get a few votes on more than one occasion. Again, it's not perfect, but I don't think estimates of ice time are, either.

Iain Fyffe, the guy who created the formula for estimating ice times has said there is an average error for defensemen of 6.2%: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1731329, which I don't think has been previously acknowledged. That effectively comes out to a minute and a half in either direction, and that's just the average error.

He was a great character in the locker room. Everyone loved him, very popular. Solid defensively while providing offense. His offense is probably very comparable to Kenny Jonsson, Olausson and Jyrki Lumme.

 

[Hawkey Town 18]

Idaho over Lahti in 7 games

3 Stars
1. Tardiff
2. Lacroix
3. Hutton/Loughlin - tie

 

[seventieslord]

Great job to both teams. Definitely two very deserving divisional finalists. I knew it could go either way.