MLD 2014 Semifinals - Mickey Ion - (1) Regina Pats vs. (2) Pittsburgh Yellow Jackets

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK

Coach: Darryl Sutter

Dennis Hextall - Herb Jordan - Harry Oliver
Andre Boudrias - Jason Allison - Real Cloutier
Bob MacMillan - Mike Ridley - Mike Murphy (A)
Terry Ruskowski (A) - Ted Hampson - Tony Granato

Dunc Munro (C) - Tomas Kaberle
Jack Evans - Gord Fraser
Marty Burke - Leo Reise Sr.

Chico Resch
Charlie Hodge

Spares:
Walter Smaill (D/F)
Bob Turner (D/W)
Charlie Tobin (F/D)
Bert McCaffrey (D/RW)


PP1:Hextall - Jordan - Oliver - Kaberle - Reise
PP2: Boudrias - Allison - Cloutier - Fraser - Munro
PK1: Ridley - Murphy - Munro - Burke
PK2: Hampson - MacMillan - Evans - Fraser
PK3: Ruskowski - Boudrias - Munro - Reise

VS

Pittsburgh Yellow Jackets
yellowjacketslgo.jpg

Coach: Emile Francis

Brian Bellows - Harry Smith - Eddie Wiseman
Nikolai Drozdetsky - Billy Taylor - Mush March
Pud Glass (A) - Jaroslav Holik - Jason Pominville
Nick Libett (A) - Pete Stemkowski - Bill Fairbairn
Spares: Johnny Gagnon, Buzz Boll

Paul Shmyr (C) - Bingo Kampman
Doug Jarrett - Lubomir Visnovsky
Joe Watson - Bob Murray
Spares:Gordie Roberts, Udo Kiessling

Roger Crozier
Tomas Vokoun

PP 1: Bellows-Smith-Wiseman-Visnovsky-Murray
PP 2: Drozdetsky-Taylor-March-Shmyr-Pominville

PK 1: Glass-Fairbairn-Watson-Kampman
PK 2: Stemkowski-Libett-Jarrett-Shmyr

 

TheDevilMadeMe

Registered User
Aug 28, 2006
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Very unusual to see two teams with first lines built around pre-WW1 goal scoring centers. Should make them easier to compare, at least
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
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Regina, SK
Rob, you still following this?

I am here, and trying to get a moment to send the first volley. Pretty sure I will tonight.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
For simplicity's sake, I'm willing to say our first line centers are a draw. Both are tough guys to rate but I'm confident they're well above average in their roles here. VsX is a metric that kinda breaks down in tiny leagues with short schedules with large spreads of competitiveness from the best to the worst teams. I think it's best described as follows: Jordan is more talented overall, particularly in playmaking and skating, and has the superior regular season resume. Defensively, neither was any good, but I think I've read Smith was literally bad (said to loaf a lot). In the playoffs, Smith had more opportunity and definitely made the most of it. Smith was also tougher, though trouble following him around was the bad side of that. These are both guys for whom a solid HHOF case can be made, and when you compare them to over a dozen contemporaries who are in, they really should be. Anyway, in a playoff series, they're about even.

For first line glue guys, I think it's a case where either of us could argue they have an advantage. Hextall had a regular season peak every bit as good as Bellows offensively, but Bellows ultimately wins that marathon with a long consistent career (10 seasons vs. 5 with a 50%+ score). Hextall is a fiery wrecking ball and the tougher player - and I don't think it's a stretch to say by far; he's a unique MLD player - but Bellows is adequately equipped to play that role at this level, too. He will hold his own but won't necessarily scare anyone - Hextall will scare people and literally make room for Jordan, which is important.

Oliver and Wiseman are both pretty one-dimensional players - Oliver is the better scorer, even though Wiseman is one of the better scorers in this draft too. Simple as that.

To summarize, the offensive power on these lines is about equal due to the advantages of Bellows and Oliver. I think Regina's line will have more room to work thanks to the more robust play of Hextall. Whether that's enough of a factor to call the line better by any measurable margin, will be up to the individual voter, I guess.
 

seventieslord

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Taylor and Allison - again, I think they are about even. Peak and career-wise, their point outputs were relatively equal, and neither does much of anything else to help their case.

Drozdetsky and Cloutier - I think they're close but I'd put Cloutier ahead by a slim margin. My USSR vsx metric has Drozdetsky with a score of 475 in his best 7 years; Cloutier gets 490. Both are very high peak players with weak career value (relative to their peaks, at least). Drozdetsky has no other special skills I'm aware of, though that could simply be because he's a Soviet with little written about him. Cloutier was at least seen as a hard worker and good teammate (which surprised me; I had always thought he had a bad reputation). It's not a huge margin, but Cloutier is probably a tad better.

I've been really high on March in this draft but it should come as no surprise that I'm very high on my own guy Boudrias, too. Read his bio and it is evident that there is really no player in a top-6 role in this draft with such great things written about his defense, forechecking, and agitation. In addition, he was a leader and is the only player I've ever seen whose small size was described as an advantage. And with four top-26 finishes in points, he is well above the standard for a 2nd line player in this draft, too (I have him with a 6-year score of 422, but that's because I believe in comparing to the actual 2nd best human scorer and not the 2nd highest point total; as you know, that's a contentious point right now and Boudrias peaked right at the time that the appropriate benchmarks are most in dispute, so YMMV). March may have had the best offensive season of the two (it's close either way), but Boudrias had the next best four. March is loaded with intangibles, but I honestly think Boudrias hangs with him there, too. I think best case scenario for March is that he's the 1930s equivalent of Boudrias, but more likely he's a slightly less talented version.

I like Regina's 2nd line by a noticeable but not large margin.
 
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seventieslord

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Anyone want to try comparing Holik and Ridley? If I was able to vote for Ridley I'd have given him my 1st place vote for bottom-six centers, and Holik would have been by 3rd. My impression: Ridley is better offensively, as I can't see Holik stepping into the NHL and getting a 6-year vsx score over 389. Ridley is at least better substantiated defensively. But Holik is a tougher, more intense player. I don't think Ridley lacks toughness or intensity. At all. But if you read his bio, it's more of an understated, quiet part of his game. With Holik it seems it was more out there for all to see. I have to give Ridley the edge as an overall player, but Holik will likely find a way to make himself a lot tougher to play against.

Glass and MacMillan seem similar in skillsets - very much utility men with a variety of skills, maybe not outstanding at any one thing but very good at many, guys who make other players better. The difference I see is that MacMillan was more talented offensively, with a 6-year score of 330 to Glass' 256. It should be said though, that if you cut off each player's best season and look at their 2-7 years, it's just 291-231 for MacMillan, as his score relies a lot more on one huge season. However, even in a few of his lesser seasons he was a player with team-leading offensive skill. Glass just wasn't that kind of guy (but, could he have been in the 1975-1985 NHL? yeah, I guess probably not, but... maybe?) I think it would be fair of me to admit a case can be made for Glass being better at non-offensive things, but MacMillan's bio does paint a picture of an awesomely rounded player who everyone loved to rave about in just about every way. He was the more skilled player, even if these vsx scores 75 years apart overstate the gap. With all that said, I have to give an advantage to my guy MacMillan here.

Pominville and Murphy aren't going to be fun to compare. Pominville is a far superior offensive player, with scores of 399 to 304, and those were achieved as more of a catalyst than Murphy, who rode shotgun for a couple stars. But in the same way, "399 to 304" probably understates how much better Murphy is than Pominville at all other aspects of the game - physicality, leadership, defense, etc. I actually like Pominville, he's been a good penalty killer and an ok defensive player for a semi-star scoring forward. But he doesn't scream "role player" to me, at any level. Put it this way: If I was comparing them as 2nd liners I would have to admit Pominville is better because offense should be the priority. On a third line I like what Murphy brings better. I will say that Pominville's skill offsets the skill difference that Ridley and MacMillan have; perhaps completely. (+100, -80, -20 or so)

In the end, simply due to the skill set being consistent across the line and not having a player sorta out of his depth, I like Regina's line better, but make no mistake, Pittsburgh's line is an excellent two-way third line.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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I've already raved about Pittsburgh's 4th line. It's almost the best 4th line one could possibly build in this thing. Mine is almost as good though :thumbu:

I think one area where I may have this comparison is at center. Stemkowski lacks Hampson's two high offensive finishes, but makes up enough ground that, by the time you're looking at their best six years they appear about equal in output. Furthermore, Stemkowski was hugely biased towards ES points - he rarely got PP time - and Hampson may have more points than his skill merits simply because the weak ass Seals put him out on the ice more than any other team would have had to. I've done a bio for both players and I think they're about equal in non-offense abilities, with probably a little edge to Hampson. However, Stemkowski is definitely the more physical player (valuable for a 4th line) and also has a much better playoff record.

Libett and Ruskowski are quite different players who are hard to compare. They have approximately equal offensive resumes based on vsx numbers, both a little ES biased (which is good),. Libett definitely has the better resume as a defensive player; Ruskowski definitely as a physical player/agitator/fighter. He was a complete wrecking ball, a Mellanby minus 500 games. This is a case where I'd say Libett is a better 3rd liner, Roscoe a better 4th liner. Close to equal as players, though.

Fairbairn over Granato is where Pittsburgh owns a real advantage over Regina. Granato is a solid little player - fearless, decent offense (particularly in goals), blazing speed, leadership... but Fairbairn is the kind of guy you can put out on an MLD 4th line and legitimately expect him to dominate other 4th liners. He made a career out of being a matchup RW at even strength, defending well and scoring surprisingly high point totals without PP time. He was a very physical player, yet very clean. And has excellent PK stats. He's got a 349-309 advantage over Granato in vsx scores over 6 years, and did so without Gretzky, without much PP time, and was better defensively. He was arguably as tough (maybe not quite as tough) but such a better "value" as far as physicality per penalty goes. Advantage to fairbairn, and it's enough to give Pittsburgh the better overall line too, by a slim margin.
 
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seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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I said last year that Munro and Shmyr are more or less the same player and I think that can stand this year as well, unless Rob has anything to add to that.

I feel like Kaberle should be compared to Visnovsky, not Kampman... I chose to put my #4 defenseman that high as he's our best puck mover. Pittsburgh apparently didn't see that as too important with Shmyr having surprising rushing ability himself (so does Munro, part of why I say they're the same player, so maybe I shouldn't have been so quick to stick Kaberle up there!) Basically when I took Kaberle there were two defensemen in his league offensively - Visnovsky and Olausson, and with Kaberle being a 2:00 higher player for teams that tended to be a degree better than theirs, and with a better playoff record, and with their weaknesses being identical to his, the choice was easy. I think everyone would agree Kaberle was better.

Evans and Kampman seem to compare to eachother well. I think they had very similar skillsets (physicality, strength) and peaked about the same, as far as voting records are concerned. The advantage Evans has is that his career was over twice as long - I will give Kampman a partial pass on that due to circumstances, but I think it's safe to say Evans ultimately established himself in the league's history more firmly.

Jarrett and Fraser - it's probably the oddest comparison of our top-6 but it intrigues me. I think these are solid all-arounders who all have strong cases as good offensive, defensive and physical players. Sometimes I look at each of them and wonder why they don't go a lot higher. Voting certainly favours Fraser, but he earned those votes in a weaker era, and Jarrett did get some recognition in a stronger time, so that is arguably a wash. I'd like to hear my opponent's take on these two players. Check my recent bio; I have a lot more passages in there than I did two years ago.

Burke and Watson are pretty much equal. Watson was perhaps more skilled in raw defense, Burke more physical. Both non-factors offensively, Watson moreso. Both important defensive pieces on two straight championships. Both received isolated recognition as among the best in the league. I said earlier I picked Burke to be my defensive #3, picking him just barely ahead of Watson, Buswell and Phillips so I picked him by admittedly the slimmest of margins. Claiming an advantage would be splitting hairs.

I "settled" for Reise after missing out on Murray. It was like you were in my head, as soon as I realized how underrated and underappreciated Murray was, you took him, and I didn't think he would be on anyone's radar. Reise was the only other guy I would have been satisfied with in the #6 slot after missing out. So I think he's a reasonable facsimile, but I'd be lying if I said I preferred him over Murray. I think their skill sets are similar in some ways (definitely more offensively oriented) but very different too (Reise was blazing fast; Murray average, Reise was physical, Murray not; Murray contributed to very good teams on occasion, Reise never had that chance). If you look at the chart from hockeyhistorysis at the bottom of Reise's bio, you see he's in the league of Abel, Corbeau and Leduc, three ATDers, though arguably weak ones who could fall to the MLD and probably no one would be outraged. In the same regard, if Iain had done the work on the 70s and 80s I guarantee we'd see Murray up around guys like Stackhouse, Korab, Dupont, Van impe, Greschner, Russell and so on. They are really similar in value, I think, but I stand by my initial assessment of Murray being ahead.

it boils down like this, I'd say:

- Kaberle less flawed/expolitable than Visnovsky
- Evans will likely be a more solid/consistent version of Kampman
- Murray more valuable overall than Reise

Depending on what a thorough analysis of Jarrett/Fraser says, I think either defense corps could be ahead. If Jarrett is a notch better than Fraser, that may bump Pittsburgh just ahead overall. If they're even, I think we end up with two advantages to one, with three washes. If Fraser's better, we have three advantages to one (none major, though)

Great defense corps on both teams, though - it's amazing that it's still possible for two teams to manage this in the MLD. Most or all of these guys should have been picked much earlier, by other teams, leaving lesser players for our bottom four slots.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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I like Resch over Crozier, but it's close. Crozier has a better single season regular season and playoff peak (smythe, FTAS) but I think Resch proved enough over the long haul to be ahead. Both are the kind of underappreciated goalies you only appreciate once you really dig in and realize how highly they were regarded in years where they were put in impossible situations - phrases like "among the league's best goalies" still popped up frequently. I like Resch best in this draft; Crozier is 4th at worst, and earned my 2nd place vote (after Peeters, which I am somewhat questioning now)

This is also the battle of the two best coaches in this draft (I know Gerard got the 2nd team all-star spot but I've had all three of these guys and I'm sure Gerard is 3rd among those 3). I really hope to see Francis in next year's ATD. Sutter, I know he'll be there. (He can't replace Laviolette, Tippett, Chernyshev, Bauer, Reay, Sinden, Ruff, Ross?)

Any comments on how our teams fit with our coaches? Feel free to add them. I don't see anything bad at first glance.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
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Since this series is pretty much my chance to talk up my team and my players, I thought I'd touch on my spares. None of them, aside from Smaill, got much love in the all-star voting, which was disappointing because of their skills and versatility which I feel was well-demonstrated. I have a reputation at this point as a guy who will almost always take a F/D over a F or D when choosing a spare, but I assure you, I won't adhere to that strategy to a fault! The thing is, these guys aren't on my team as MLD spares just because they can play multiple positions, it's because they excelled at multiple positions. Let's recap:

Walter Smaill:

As a forward:
- put up a six-year vsx score of 245, basically Pud Glass numbers
- Iain Fyffe's records indicate that score is dragged downwards by some time at defense
- was a 2nd all-star team RW in the PCHA in 1914

as a defenseman:

- put up a four-year vsx score of 266 among defensemen, basically Bob Murray numbers

- was also sent to the PCHA/NHA competitive all-star game three times, not sure if it was as a forward or defenseman

- skills as a speedster, worker bee/utility man, and especially clutch player are well documented, check his bio

Bob Turner:

As a forward:


- it is documented in multiple places that Turner was a penalty killing forward for the Habs, a very successful and very deep team that assumedly had a very successful penalty kill (I think he may be the winger version of Lorne Henning as a penalty killer, much less numerical support for that, though)

As a defenseman:

- Lasted for 7 seasons worth of games in the ultra-competitive NHL, for teams far, far above average (see chart comparing him to other 1927-1967 MLD/AAA defensemen). Won 5 cups as the #5. Fended off training camp challenges year after year by players who were likely among the best non-NHL defensemen.

Charlie Tobin:

As a forward:


- was already 27 when he joined the PCHA but finished top-10 in points 4 times (3rd, 8th, 8th, 9th) and was a 1st team 1918 all-star
- earned vsx scores of 83, 48, 42, 41, 37, 31 (but was playing defense about 22% of the time, according to Iain Fyffe) - these are, like Walter Smaill, Pud Glass-like numbers, and his case as an all-round forward isn't as strong, but his ability to drop back and play defense makes up for that

As a defenseman:

- I don't actually know if he did anything special as a defenseman. In this case it's more that he could do it, not that he was a star at it. But it's important to note because it hurts his upside as a forward unless you keep it in mind.

Bert McCaffrey:

As a forward:


- put up 94 points in 77 games in the OHA and earned two first team all-star spots (Harry Watson had 131 in 72)
- won two Allan Cups
- scored buckets of points at the 1924 olympics with his linemates Smith and Watson, winning gold
- placed 19th and 13th in the NHL in points (percentage scores 38 & 58) despite already being 31 when he joined the NHL, already the 12th oldest full time player in the league
- was 13th in hart voting in 1926 (13 voting points), the only Leaf to get Hart votes despite being 3rd on the team in scoring

As a defenseman:

- was an OHA 2nd team all-star in 1921
- played 5 NHL seasons from age 33-37 for teams slightly below average (weighted SRS -.08)
- earned defense percentage scores of 65 and 53% in his best two seasons
- in the 1928 and 1930 seasons, he was traded to and from Pittsburgh. they had a record of 31-49-15 (.405) with him, and 2-31-4 (.108) before acquiring him and after losing him.
- contributed to 2 Montreal stanley cups (1930, 1931)
- was the oldest full time player in the NHL when he retired

Where can they fill in?

I don't think anyone gets spares thinking they can fill in on the top line or top pairing - that's what your 2nd liners and 2nd pairing guys are for. But it's safe to say Smaill is at least a good short term 2nd line utility man, 3rd/4th liner and 5th/6th defenseman, Turner has #4/5/6 defenseman skills and 4th line wing (and PK) ability, Tobin is a 3rd/4th liner with possible 2nd line glue duty, but a last resort for defense. McCaffrey's hart votes are intriguing; he appears to have been an elite glue guy for a couple of years; it's not that much of a stretch to see him doing 2nd line spot duty to preserve the integrity of the lower lines; remember he was 31+ in the NHL and showed his real offensive worth in his 20s in senior hockey. But without a doubt he can play on a 3rd/4th line and a 3rd pairing on defense.

you could say that Smaill could be like drafting Lucien DeBlois AND Doug Lidster; Bob Turner is like taking Reg Hamilton AND Dave Reid; Charlie Tobin is like taking Tony McKegney AND.... I dunno, Al Dewsbury?; and Bert McCaffrey is like drafting Greg Adams AND Marcus Ragnarsson.

Not that the values of these players are literally the sums of the types of positional players they are comparable to (I'd take most/all of DeBlois, Lidster, Hamilton, Reid, McKegney, Dewsbury, Adams and Ragnarsson as starters first, mostly due to more established records in their positions and roles) but especially as spares, I think their values do go a few notches in that direction.

Pittsburgh, for their part, has done a good job. Gagnon is almost like having another Real Cloutier. Boll is like having a poor man's MacMillan (who can step onto a 2nd line if you need him for sure), Roberts is like having a poor man's Fraser/Jarrett who can step into a variety of roles, but not 1st pair, and Kiessling is... I'm not sure. He's good, at least.

Pittsburgh went the BPA route and I went the versatility route and Pittsburgh definitely reaped the all-star votes for their efforts this time, but I think we came out about even in terms of what our spares are each capable of.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
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Regina, SK
How's your leadership, Rob? here are my top leaders:

- Dunc Munro: a 7-year NHL captain, winning a cup and going to another final in that capacity
- Terry Ruskowski: was captain for 10 of his 15 seasons for four teams (one in the WHA, three in the NHL)
- Mike Murphy: was captain of the Kings for 6 seasons
- Ted Hampson: was a 3-season NHL captain, also a captain in the WHA and AHL during the O6 era
- Tony Granato: Despite never being an NHL captain, he was lauded for his leadership on a regular basis at all stages of his career
- Charlie Tobin: was a PCHA captain
- Andre Boudrias: was Canucks captain for one season and described as a leader and good team man other times
- Jason Allison: was an NHL captain for a season and was never said to be bad at it (it was later on he developed somewhat of a bad reputation)
- Chico Resch: Was an excellent leader, mentor, elder statesman kind of guy, these types of attributes are mentioned for him more often than they usually are for goalies
 

Rob Scuderi

Registered User
Sep 3, 2009
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Definitely still interested, so thanks for getting us started. I'll try to respond to bits.

For simplicity's sake, I'm willing to say our first line centers are a draw. Both are tough guys to rate but I'm confident they're well above average in their roles here. VsX is a metric that kinda breaks down in tiny leagues with short schedules with large spreads of competitiveness from the best to the worst teams. I think it's best described as follows: Jordan is more talented overall, particularly in playmaking and skating, and has the superior regular season resume. Defensively, neither was any good, but I think I've read Smith was literally bad (said to loaf a lot). In the playoffs, Smith had more opportunity and definitely made the most of it. Smith was also tougher, though trouble following him around was the bad side of that. These are both guys for whom a solid HHOF case can be made, and when you compare them to over a dozen contemporaries who are in, they really should be. Anyway, in a playoff series, they're about even.
Iain Fyffe's Point Allocation system has Smith and Jordan as the highest scoring players for the 1900 decade undrafted coming into the MLD, but he has Smith solidly ahead. Here are other MLDers from different decades for context.
|
Harry Oliver|105.3
Bob McDougall|98.2
Harry Smith|95.5
Carson Cooper|88.5
Allan Cameron|86.1
Tom Paton|84.5
Barney Stanley|83.6
Herb Jodan|81.7
Smith definitely has his defensive warts, but leaning on Iain's work and considering the playoffs I think a case can be made Smith was the better of these two.

For first line glue guys, I think it's a case where either of us could argue they have an advantage. Hextall had a regular season peak every bit as good as Bellows offensively, but Bellows ultimately wins that marathon with a long consistent career (10 seasons vs. 5 with a 50%+ score). Hextall is a fiery wrecking ball and the tougher player - and I don't think it's a stretch to say by far; he's a unique MLD player - but Bellows is adequately equipped to play that role at this level, too. He will hold his own but won't necessarily scare anyone - Hextall will scare people and literally make room for Jordan, which is important.
I agree with you here that each is better one area, but I tend to focus on production for top lines where Bellows has the edge. I don't think Smith needs as much space created for him as Jordan, so Bellows effective boardwork over intimidation style shouldn't hold my line back in this comparison.

Oliver and Wiseman are both pretty one-dimensional players - Oliver is the better scorer, even though Wiseman is one of the better scorers in this draft too. Simple as that.
Definitely agree here. They're similar, but Oliver is just better.

To summarize, the offensive power on these lines is about equal due to the advantages of Bellows and Oliver. I think Regina's line will have more room to work thanks to the more robust play of Hextall. Whether that's enough of a factor to call the line better by any measurable margin, will be up to the individual voter, I guess.
Again I'm not sure if Hextall's more in your face style pushes Regina ahead considering Smith was a bit of a loose cannon who doesn't need as much protection as Jordan.

If we accept this and can't split the hairs between Smith and Jordan offensively, doesn't Bellows's offensive advantage over Hextall push Pittsburgh's line ahead, in terms of offensive firepower? They aren't as close as Wiseman and Oliver are.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
Definitely still interested, so thanks for getting us started. I'll try to respond to bits.


Iain Fyffe's Point Allocation system has Smith and Jordan as the highest scoring players for the 1900 decade undrafted coming into the MLD, but he has Smith solidly ahead. Here are other MLDers from different decades for context.
|
Harry Oliver|105.3
Bob McDougall|98.2
Harry Smith|95.5
Carson Cooper|88.5
Allan Cameron|86.1
Tom Paton|84.5
Barney Stanley|83.6
Herb Jodan|81.7
Smith definitely has his defensive warts, but leaning on Iain's work and considering the playoffs I think a case can be made Smith was the better of these two.

I think a case can be made that Smith was better, but a case can also be made for Jordan. I was aware of what Iain's numbers say but one concern I have is that he possibly overvalues achievements in lesser leagues.

Jordan's vsx for his best 6 seasons is 420; Smith's is 379. Jordan's numbers are exclusively earned in the top leagues, Smith's 2nd highest score (87) was earned in a second rate league which my rudimentary early league vsx treats the same, but shouldn't (you saw the concersation earlier in this draft, I'm sure). Iain's points allocation is therefore giving a ton of credit to Smith for 04, 08, 09 and 12 when his competition was not as strong, if he comes out ahead of Jordan overall. I agree those seasons should add something, but there's a good chance he's overdoing it.

I agree with you here that each is better one area, but I tend to focus on production for top lines where Bellows has the edge. I don't think Smith needs as much space created for him as Jordan, so Bellows effective boardwork over intimidation style shouldn't hold my line back in this comparison.

Good point on Smith not needing space created for him. Bellows' offensive peak is better than Hextall, but we're talking about 6% difference here, which is so close to a tie that I am giving Bellows a longevity edge as a sort of tiebreaker. One more thing that should be mentioned is that Bellows only led his team in scoring once, and Hextall did this five times. Why is this important? It's a question of how much help they each had. If you're earning a 75% score and you're the best on your team, you're dragging lesser players up (and in all likelihood they're making it harder for you to score). If you're earning a 75% score and you're 2nd-3rd best on your team, in all likelihood you're benefitting from strong(er) linemates who are helping you get your score up to 75. I'm well aware this isn't Chris Kunitz I'm comparing Hextall to, but given the situations, I don't think it's a stretch to say their peaks are equal. Imagine their situations reversed.

Again I'm not sure if Hextall's more in your face style pushes Regina ahead considering Smith was a bit of a loose cannon who doesn't need as much protection as Jordan.

Still, this is a good point.

If we accept this and can't split the hairs between Smith and Jordan offensively, doesn't Bellows's offensive advantage over Hextall push Pittsburgh's line ahead, in terms of offensive firepower? They aren't as close as Wiseman and Oliver are.

They are definitely closer than Wiseman and Oliver, from what I can tell. Based on a simple 6-year score, Oliver is about 10% better than Wiseman offensively, and Bellows is about 6% up on Hextall (before one makes mental adjustments for leading vs. not leading a team in scoring, which they should). Then we have Jordan with a sizeable offensive prime edge before Smith's weaker league exploits are accounted for somehow. Toughness-wise, you actually have the edge, as it's two against one out there.

I think either way it's close, and if neither of us will ultimately concede the other has a better line, that's cool too. I didn't expect we would be able to hammer out all the details; heck, that's just voting on behalf of the voters!
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
Are you busy, Rob? I'm just wondering if we should wrap this up while there's anyone aside from active GMs willing to vote on this series, or if we want to keep at it and make a good, thorough series out of it and hope a few are still interested in a week. I'm game, in case you're wondering.
 

Rob Scuderi

Registered User
Sep 3, 2009
3,378
2
Yeah I've been busy so I'll try to keep chipping in.

Can't disagree with much for the rest of the forward lines.

Taylor and Allison do look similar. Taylor does the 4th place finish in playoff scoring the year he won the Stanley Cup, Allison never got much a chance to do anything in the playoffs.

I'd like to disagree with you about Boudrias and March, but reading Boudrias's bio makes it hard to do. He was better offensively and has the intangibles as well. Would Boudrias have the chance to score so many points in the pre-expansion era though? March was a key player on a team that won two Stanley Cups, whereas Boudrias was a key player on the bad expansion Canucks offering more offensive opportunity (and note he didn't kill that many penalties there despite the fact he seemed to have the skillset for it).

Glass is hard to compare, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for his defensive game. He seems to have been the best defensive forward on the Wanderers dynasty and gets a lot of praise. MacMillan was never a factor in Selke voting and had seven seasons after it was awarded to receive consideration.
 

Rob Scuderi

Registered User
Sep 3, 2009
3,378
2
Agreed regarding Visnovsky and Kaberle, I wanted Kaberle but missed out so I grabbed Visnovsky. I did stash Visnovsky on the second pair for the reasons you mention though.

I really like your Munro, Evans, Burke axis as well. Kampman has an excellent AST voting record for the MLD, but Evans received consideration there as well and had the longer career.

I never viewed Jarrett as anything special offensively, I see him as a hard-hitting defensive guy. Fraser is definitely better offensively, but I have some questions about his award consideration. I realize SIHR lists those three nods you have in the bio (PCHA 1st 1924, PCHA 2nd 1923, WHL 2nd 1925) but BM67 has some different results the retroactive award thread.

He's one of three defensemen listed on the 1st AST for the PCHA in 1924. Obviously one had to be the spare, but SIHR lists all three of Art Duncan, Clem Loughlin, and Fraser as first team all-stars as well so they can't help with this answer.

For 1923, BM67 lists Fraser as the 2nd Team Spare defender. Lloyd Cook and Bobby Rowe are on the 1st Team with Slim Halderson as the spare. Art Duncan and Clem Loughlin are listed on the 2nd Team with Fraser as the spare. Again SIHR doesn't help - they have Rowe and Halderson on the 1st AST. They have all of Duncan, Loughlin, and Fraser again on the 2nd AST. They don't have Cook on the 1st AST, but they don't have any of his AST selections so obviously that's off.

If Fraser's two PCHA awards were as spares that should drop him a bit. With this in mind, I prefer Jarrett's award recognition as a defensive-minded guy disadvantaged in voting.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
Would Boudrias have the chance to score so many points in the pre-expansion era though? March was a key player on a team that won two Stanley Cups, whereas Boudrias was a key player on the bad expansion Canucks offering more offensive opportunity (and note he didn't kill that many penalties there despite the fact he seemed to have the skillset for it).

Tough to say about Boudrias. He hadn't gotten the chance yet, but was just 23 when expansion hit. If nothing else, he proved that he should have been given a chance. March made the most of his modest talent for sure. I will point this out though - the NHL that Boudrias couldn't crack was not like Marsh's league. It was the most competitive three years the NHL had ever seen. There were just 6 teams and the pool of players able to play had reached critical mass. In March's time there were as many as 10 teams and of course the talent pool wasn't as large (we can't really say to what degree but there were more players in 1967 than 1935, I think we all agree on that).

Glass is hard to compare, but I think he deserves a lot of credit for his defensive game. He seems to have been the best defensive forward on the Wanderers dynasty and gets a lot of praise. MacMillan was never a factor in Selke voting and had seven seasons after it was awarded to receive consideration.

That's true, but the way he is described a lot of times ("the ideal hockey player", "one of the best all-round right wings in the NHL", "A 1978-79 poll of coaches found him to be the NHL's most underrated player"...) indicates he's better than just some guy who doesn't get selke recognition. With two of the top-3 votes typically earmarked for two guys in those 7 years, there were usually only about 5 players who got statistically significant vote totals anyway. The evidence is not strong that player A,B, or C who got 1-5 votes one or two times is definitely better defensively than MacMillan.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
Agreed regarding Visnovsky and Kaberle, I wanted Kaberle but missed out so I grabbed Visnovsky. I did stash Visnovsky on the second pair for the reasons you mention though.

I really like your Munro, Evans, Burke axis as well. Kampman has an excellent AST voting record for the MLD, but Evans received consideration there as well and had the longer career.

I never viewed Jarrett as anything special offensively, I see him as a hard-hitting defensive guy. Fraser is definitely better offensively, but I have some questions about his award consideration. I realize SIHR lists those three nods you have in the bio (PCHA 1st 1924, PCHA 2nd 1923, WHL 2nd 1925) but BM67 has some different results the retroactive award thread.

He's one of three defensemen listed on the 1st AST for the PCHA in 1924. Obviously one had to be the spare, but SIHR lists all three of Art Duncan, Clem Loughlin, and Fraser as first team all-stars as well so they can't help with this answer.

For 1923, BM67 lists Fraser as the 2nd Team Spare defender. Lloyd Cook and Bobby Rowe are on the 1st Team with Slim Halderson as the spare. Art Duncan and Clem Loughlin are listed on the 2nd Team with Fraser as the spare. Again SIHR doesn't help - they have Rowe and Halderson on the 1st AST. They have all of Duncan, Loughlin, and Fraser again on the 2nd AST. They don't have Cook on the 1st AST, but they don't have any of his AST selections so obviously that's off.

If Fraser's two PCHA awards were as spares that should drop him a bit. With this in mind, I prefer Jarrett's award recognition as a defensive-minded guy disadvantaged in voting.

First off, Jarrett came out looking surprisingly strong offensively back when I did a wide-ranging comparion for Barry Gibbs' benefit a couple years ago. His vsx defense percentages are 63, 57, 55, 53, 49 and 46 for a 6-year total of 323. That's Mark Hardy range... that's not bad offensively!

And.... that really sucks about Fraser. 1923 might be completely meaningless if he was a 2nd team spare. That makes him 5th in the league and that's without Cook considered.

Looks like one of his ASTs is definitely impeachable. The first is semi-questionable (we don't know if first team spare is best player among spares, or 3rd-best defenseman). At least the third is clear. It helps to prove that he was always a star, too. But likely not at the caliber that I/we thought he was with the uncontextualized all-star teams. Looks like Jarrett's better.

Without getting into the degrees of advantages, Regina's got the edge in #2 (Evans over Kampman), and #4 (Kaberle over Visnovsky), but Pittsburgh has the edge in #5 (Jarrett over Fraser) and #6 (Murray over Reise).

Tough one to call.
 

seventieslord

Student Of The Game
Mar 16, 2006
36,190
7,332
Regina, SK
Wow! I knew this great run had to end eventually... 2012 AAA, 2013 MLD and AAA.

You were due, Rob. This could have gone either way, like last time, and this time it went yours. I only wish we could have put on an even better show, but our analysis was pretty evenhanded on both sides, so perhaps that's why there wasn't much back and forth.

Go get 'em, champ.
 

Rob Scuderi

Registered User
Sep 3, 2009
3,378
2
Good series, 70s. Glad I could squeak it out.

I couldn't say a ton about your comments as they seemed fair.
 

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